tobi0040

It isn't the money though, if the Twins had him signed for five years I think they would play him over someone like Rosario even if it was hurting the club. If Pelfrey got 160 IP last year when he was less than two years away from his contract ending.......imagine a guy five years away.

What percentage chance do you think Arcia is a LF, RF, or DH for the 2017 Twins? If you were to handicap it. It is about 60-70% for me. I think it is a coin flip between who is a better hitter between him and Vargas and I think we will probably have two better options for LF and RF. So $20M that will result in a 30-40% chance we are playing a guy for multiple years that is not our best option is not a gamble I would not take. Especially since we should not have payroll issues over the time period. Heck, Nelson Cruz signed for $14.25M a year in free agency. How much do we think that first or second free agent year is going to cost us if we wait? Jeremy's post has $9M and $11M. Assume some inflation and it seems like we are paying $20M now to save $5-6M a year for a year or two....again on a team that should not have a large payroll. Mauer isn't making $23M anymore, almost the entire team is under control. Nolasco is gone by then. Salaries will escalate, so will cable contracts, ticket prices, jerseys, the value of the Twins, and the price of a beer.

I think we have a different definition of "minor financial risk". If we knew Arcia was our LF for the next five years and you do this deal, you have risk that he doesn't achieve his potential. That, considering the paltry financial commitment is minor to me. At least are paying a player that was going to be there anyways. In reality, Arcia does not have a firm grasp on the position. Having watched Pelfrey, on a 1 year and then a 2 year deal operate on scholarship, I think the risk is not minor that we have a better option and play Arcia for five years because he is on scholarship. I don't consider that minor. Or maybe you and I simply disagree on that concept. You are extremely certain Arcia is a LF or DH on this team over the next five years and I am a lot less certain. In which that makes complete sense that we would disagree about a deal like this. As a side bar, I think the cost rising aspect is not always an apples to apples comparison. 5-20 may happen now because you are amortizing the 500K he will make this year over five years. If you wait a year, the 500K in year 1 is gone and replaced with a FA year, so the overall contract looks a lot bigger, when in reality you have the player for another year in which he would have been a free agent.

$20M with options probably means $3M in buyouts. So we are locked into a 5 year, $23M deal for a guy that may not be one of the two best corner OF options and/or best DH option on this team when we are good again. If he had a firm grasp on his spot I would be all for it. But he doesn't. For example, if Rosario can have a .720-.750 OPS up here, I am guessing that would be a better player than Arcia in LF given the defensive aspect. This team is not going to have a payroll issue in the next five years, so we should get some clarity on these things first.

As far as early extensions go, I think the Twins should be done for this year after the Dozier one and I was on the fence there given the control they had through his prime. But if I was forced to extend guys, Arcia would not be even near the top of the list. Buxton and Sano, 1 and 2*. Barring what happens next year, I could see Gibson being more of a priority. If Sano does not stick at 3B, Plouffe would be a much higher priority to me. *To explain the hypocrisy between my hesitation because Arcia does not have a defined position and the perception that Sano does not as well. Sano is not a lock at 3B, but he is a lock somewhere.

He has a 196 basis point split thus far between his right and left OPS. Here are his minor league differential in OPS: 2013 - 206 basis points 2012 - 210 basis points 2011 - 174 basis points Maybe they just won't stabilize?

Not every player shows a platoon split of a .613 OPS against one side. The Twins on any given night would have a better chance to win with almost anyone off the bench starting in LF for Arcia against lefties. Escobar, for one would be better offensively and defensively.

Spot. On.

On the risk/reward scale, this seems way too far on the risky side. You could be giving a guy with question marks and not a defined role a 5-7 year contract. That seems completely foolish to me. Most guys that are given the 5-7 year deal early, at a minimum have a defined spot on the team. That should be an essential ingredient here. Nobody can honestly say Arcia has that.

The only certainty at this point is that Arcia has proven to be a very bad defensive outfielder. And a platoon type player at the plate. That might catch some off guard. But a career OPS split of .809/.613 is the definition of a platoon player. And he has struck out in over 30% of his at bats. He has a ton of upside, no doubt. But these are undeniable. It is not completely out of the question that four different guys could beat out Arcia for a corner OF spot (Rosario, Sano, Plouffe, Hicks, plus someone not on the radar) . Or that he proves himself incapable of playing in the field and he is beaten out by Vargas. So giving him a 5, 6, or 7 year deal seems really, really unneccesary at best.

Things that need clarity: Can Arcia play adequete defense? Can Arcia improve upon his sub .600 OPS against lefties? Can Arcia's offense outweigh someone like Rosario/Hicks/maybe Sano/Plouffe, in LF, given they will likely all play better defense? The Twins need to hit the pause button. So many things need to work themselves out.

I think big picture, we could go down the line and lock up every guy we think will be a part of the 2017 Twins. But we first need clarity on if the combination of all these guys is a playoff team or not. Because if you have all positions locked up, you are often going to be stuck with that roster. we will never have full clarity, but projecting out five years based on a very small sample is risky. Especially when guys have huge queston marks.

But what if Vargas is the next Ortiz and Arcia still looks lost in the outfield? And again, if Arcia does not take a significant step forward against lefties he will find himself on the bench in key games. A lot of things need to be sorted out over the next few years.

Here is a 4th grade explanation. By 4th grade I mean I know just enough to think I have it down. I will be corrected, likely on all points within ten minutes. Here goes. Your service time starts when you are called up and is a big countdown, first to arbitration (when an arbiter determines your pay and then when you become a free agent). The general rule of thumb is players are under rookie deals their first three years and usually make about $500K per year. Then they are in arbitration for three years. Numbers in arbitration range from 1-2.5M in year one, on up to potentially $10M depending on prodution. Ryan Howard was putting up MVP numbers for example and made a boatload. Super two means players can skip their third year of rookie pay and jump to arbitration if they are in the 22nd percentile or better in terms of service time (for their peers). http://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/super-two/ I have less knowledge of the options. On a very basic level, a player can only be called up to the majors and then sent back down so many times before he has to pass through waivers and can be claimed by other teams. Some magical calculation exists regarding service time, number of times being sent down, whether they ar on the 40 or 25 man roster, and age.

I am a little dumbfounded. He is not a free agent for five more seasons and has legitimate question marks about his game and role here. He has been pretty bad defensively and may not be sustainable there. And his career line against lefties is .224/.266/.336/.597. Before we pay him five years in advance, lets allow him to show that he has a position and is not platoon player.

Okay. I meant he needs to outperform Vargas and the twins trade Vargas.

He needs to hit the seams off the ball and play average defense. Or hit the seams off the ball (way more than Arcia) and the twins trade Arcia and commit to him at DH It should be noted that he would need to dramatically improve against lefties to qualify as hitting the seams off the ball. The last thing you want to do is extend a platoon player for five years for no reason.

I think he is due a three year extension after this year. It maybe tough for him to decline that.

That is a consideration. But I think the story that has not gotten much of any traction is how much better Rosario is than Hicks defensively. Hicks was not the main issue defensively last year, but he was below average. I think the thought proceess that young + athletic = good outfielder has not been proven here. Getting better play out of CF would help the defense and I think Rosario is a good enough hitter to blow by the low bar Hicks has put up so far on that side of the bar as well. Molitor said that Hicks needs to "reclaim" the CF spot in order to break camp. Rosario .237/.704, 4 XBH in 38 AB (2 HR, 3B, and 2B) Hicks .222/.684, 2 XBH in 27 AB. Rosario has gunned down two runners already. If it is a competition...hard to argue Hicks is ahead. Rosario is not setting the world on fire, but it does look like the same old Hicks. Very low BA, walking a bit, no power. My bare minimum on Rosario is that he will likely hit double digit HR's and should have quite a few doubles, so that alone should exceed Hicks at the plate. http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_27744047/twins-eddie-rosario-aaron-hicks-need-win-center

I guess if may loses to pelfrey or milone, I question the point if giving him 10 starts last year. He got the nerves out, learned how to get hitters out towards the end, learned what he can't do (walk guys in bunches). What is the point of sending him back? He needs to build off last year. IMO, he will likely put up better numbers in April and had way more upside. This is a no brainer.

I honestly think Rosario makes this team over hicks.

That was exactly what I was using. Good call. All his balls were listed as 4 pitch walks. Thank you for the heads up.

Way too talented to give up on as a starter. I would rather see him tweak his mechanics in AAA in starts rather than stick him in the pen.

The other thing that I think merits a comparison, the Mariners had to put up with BB/9 numbers out of Randy Johnson that the twins have never put up with and the M's were ultimately rewarded for doing so. Now, Meyer can't walk two hitters per inning like he did yesterday. He has to improve his command. But it is interesting to note, Meyer only allowed one run and had 3 K's in those two innings (in addition to one weak bloop hit that had a chance of being caught). Nobody hit him hard. When he was in a jam he reached back and overpowered guys, or dropped that really, really nice slider in there. He may get himself into trouble more often, but if nobody is squaring him up and he is striking out hitters.....he should be given a leash. A BB/9 in the mid 4's or even 5 in the big's should not keep this kid in AAA. In his first two years, Randy had a BB/9 of 5.4, then 4.8 the next year. But he had k rates in the 7-8 range, HR rates at .7-.8, and hit rates of 8.1-8.2. We need to look at more than one stat with him. To a similar extend, May is similar. His hit rates, HR rates, and K rates are not like the typical Twins pitcher and should be viewed in their entirety.

Great article. I have championed Meyer for a long time, but it is really, really hard to watch yesterdays outing and then argue he should make this team out of spring training. He was consistently missing the glove by a foot or more with the fastball. However, the few times he got ahead of the hitter, it was like he was pitching to a 5th grader when he would drop the slider in there, but he needs much better fastball command. Four BB's, all four pitch walks in two innings.... Batter 1. Hit on first pitch Batter 2. Four pitch walk Batter 3. Four pitch walk Batter 4. Sac on first pitch (run scored) Batter 5. Four pitch walk Batter 6. K on three pitches (all swinging) Batter 7. K on three pitches (all swinging) Second inning Batter 1. K on three pitches Batter 2. Grounder to 2B on first pitch Batter 3. Four pitch walk Batter 4. Guy thrown out at 2B on steal attempt.... My other random thoughts....Nolasco's curve looke really good but it seemed like his fastball was hit pretty hard. Obviously the HR, but a couple other hard hit balls right at people. And Arcia on that ball off his glove. That was brutal. Really Delmon-esque. No hustle, misplaying a ball that should have been caught. Not quite routine, but not a dififcult play either. For those out there who don't buy the Twins negative 50 runs due to OF defense should watch that. If what should be an out is a 2B on a play you are not even requiring average speed or an average angle on....