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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    It is also debatable they only had an elite bullpen. Ventura had an ERA of 3.20, both in the regular season and playoff. That is pretty close to elite. Gordon had an OPS of .783 and a WAR of 6.6. Cain's was 4.9.
  2. tobi0040
    It does seem like a pretty decent bet. For the Twins to land at 69 wins or less, we are not getting much of anything out of a list of guys that could provide value this year, IMO. Specifically, Rosario, May, Meyer, Sano, Buxton, Vargas. and Berrios. I think at least two guys from this list emerge earlier than people are expecting and help this team win games.
  3. tobi0040
    I don't know guys. He only has 2 HR in 10 at bats. He needs to pick it up if he wants to hang up with the big club.
  4. tobi0040
    You have to be careful. Most mlb hitters with power could hit for a higher average if they wanted to Adam Dunn could have shortened his swing and went the other way more and hit for a higher average, but his .250 was different than Lexi Casilla's
  5. tobi0040
    Agreed, great work as always Parker.
  6. tobi0040
    That is fair. My personal opinion is that Rosario is a more natural hitter. His OPS is weighted towards slugging versus OBP. I don't think he would have made that PR team as a 21 year old if he could not hit. I don't see his tools struggling the way we have seen Hicks. Reports on his defense, even in CF have been really good. Comparing that to what I have seen from Hicks and putting it all together, my money is on Rosario long term. Maybe not CF in April (though I would not be shocked), but a corner spot sometime in the June timeframe I think has Rosario written all over it. I also think our OF defense could turn into a strength by the end of the year. I think Buxton and Rosario can cover enough ground to mask how poor Arcia is.
  7. tobi0040
    I don't think it is clear that Hicks has shown more than Rosario in the minors. Rosario progresssed through at a slighly younger age and put up slightly bettter numbers overall. He also made the PR team in the WBC as a 21 year old. Rosario Age 20 Low A - .835 OPS Age 21 - .903 OPS at high A, .734 at AA Age 22 - .672 OPS at AA in 79 games, missed 50 to start the year Total Minors - .829 OPS, 106 2B, 26 3B, 26 HR in 427 games. Hicks Age 20 - .829 OPS in low A Age 21 - .722 OPS in high A Age 22 - .844 OPS in AA Total Minors .798 OPS, 124 2B, 32 3B, 39 HR in 567 games. You can make a case for both, it is pretty close IMO. I think people forget that everyone was saying the same things about Hicks prior to his age 22 season. Lots of tools, relatively underperforming them. Not putting it together, etc. Then he has one good year (not a phenomenal year) and then makes the big league club the next year and we are all saying the same thing about him.
  8. tobi0040
    I am rooting for the kid too, but the way I see it he needs to prove he is a MLB corner OF by June or July this year. At that time I think Buxton is our CF for the next 10 years or so. Accomplishing that would be a huge improvement upon the guy we have seen the last two years. I also see Rosario as more of a natural hitter than Hicks and the two are very much in competition for a coner spot moving forward.
  9. tobi0040
    I think if Sano is playing well, he is up after super 2. Regardless of how Plouffe is playing. This is a guy that you make room for.
  10. tobi0040
    Not at all. Effectively saying we will be ahead of one, maybe two of the other four teams is noting that we are not a very good team. I think the Royals outperformed last year and they lose their best pitcher. Ventura is a regression candidate. That leaves them with an average at best rotation and a below average offense. Pen be dammed, they could slip. The Tigers are going to fall from grace rather spectacularly. It is probably still a 2016 event but this is an aging team. Verlander looks about done and they lost a 6 WAR pitcher and Victor will never have another season like last year. With the Indians, is Kluber a 7 WAR pitcher? He never looked it prior to last year. And the Sox, our pythag last year was actually better than theirs and they needed 10 WAR from Sale and Quintana to have a pythag of 71. So I think you have a lot of moving parts. I don't think anyone is expecting anything out of 4-5 young players that could have an impact for us this year. If 1-2 come up and contribute I think we jump 1-2 teams. That's all.
  11. tobi0040
    I would argue we have more regression candidates (Santana, Escobar, Plouffe, Collabello's April, and Dozier) as we do guys that may bounce back (Nolaso, Mauer, etc.). I think if the Twins surprise people it is going to be a few young, talented players that come up and give this team a shot in the arm. I think about Matt Harvey in his first year, If Meyer or May could have a year that looks anything like that....or Sano or Buxton come up and perform well that is where the upside will come from
  12. tobi0040
    I really don't see Pelfrey or Milone getting many starts this year. Milone may break camp but that is because the Twins have an irrational tendency to start the year with veterans. If we have a ton of injuries maybe Milone does, but he would be an improvement over the likes of Pino. May had only 10 starts last year, he gave up 15 ER in two of those ten. That is why his FIP is over three runs lower than his ERA (7.88 vs. 4.77). He also fanned 44 batters in 45 IP. Ricky, well his career numbers suggest his ERA could improve by about a run.
  13. tobi0040
    I think the twins finish 4th or 3rd, but I am not sure who they finish ahead of. I just see cracks in the other four teams
  14. tobi0040
    Especially when the side he hits well from would be against lefties. Maybe we would call him up for that role during a pennant run
  15. tobi0040
    Milone's IF fly ball rate is 16% higher at home. I think it plays a role in his splits. Santana and Nolasco have an OPS of .757 and .755 on the road, versus Milone's .785. Both of those guys have played a few seasons with different teams as well
  16. tobi0040
    Guessing you meant Vargas at DH. I think Rosario takes Hicks spot and the catcher will probably still be Suzuki. I don't think they will tolerate Pinto
  17. tobi0040
    I am curious what metric you are using to conclude Plouffe is “not very good” at 3B? His range factor was 6th. His DWAR was 12th. 10th in double plays turned. 4th in put outs. And 14th in fielding percentage. I am not going to argue that MLB is pretty conservative in the manner in which they assign errors, I just don't see how that was limited to Plouffe. Add in that he was 13th in OPS and 9th in overall WAR. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/3b http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/range_factor_per_nine_3b_top_ten.shtml
  18. tobi0040
    I can't help but conclude that Tommy Milone is a reverse Phil Hughes. Hughes had terrible numbers in Yankee stadium, but he had really good stuff and decent numbers everywhere else. Good K numbers, a good HR rate everywhere else. It was a great sign and logic. Take the guy away from the terrible stadium, get decent numbers with a chance his confidence will explode and he will improve Milone has a career 3.44 ERA and .699 OPS in Oakland. He left 76.3% of his runners stranded there, thanks in part to cheap pop up outs. On the road, he has a career 4.48 ERA and .785 OPS. He strands only 69.3% of his runners. Only 41 players had a higher OPS last year. His upside is that of a 5th starter at best and he is 28 years old. Why on earth would we give him the 5th starter role over two 25 year olds who have way more upside and are likely to outperform him? This appears to be a very tough concept for the Twins, but games in April count the same as game in July or August
  19. tobi0040
    And Molitor was a guy known for fundamentals and footwork. BRef has his range factor at third with six top five finishes in the ALfrom 82 to 89. His initial assessment of Sano has not been good. This could be a guy whose tolerance is a little lower. Range Factor/Game as 3B s 1982 AL 3.12 (3rd) 1983 AL 3.07 (5th) 1985 AL 2.88 (5th) 1986 AL 2.77 (2nd) 1988 AL 2.60 (5th) 1989 AL 2.87 (3rd) I wish the Twins just threw out personal preferences and they asked Jack Goin and a third party to run an analysis. How many balls at 3B do you think Plouffe will get to that Sano won't? How many additional errors will Sano make? How many of those runners will score. Then quantify the difference in their offenses.
  20. tobi0040
    Well, Sano's prospect ranking is likely higher because he may stick at 3B. That would fall a tad if he projected as a corner OF or more if he was a DH. Still an elite prospect, but he likely falls behind most of the high end short stops for example. And comments on these boards should be enough proof that Plouffe is drastically undervalued. He added 3.5 WAR last year at a position we haven't had even average play since about 2004. He was second among position players in WAR on the team (Dozier). He would have been 3rd overall on the world series champion Giants, behind only Posey and Pence. Ahead of Bumgarter and the $95M Panda.
  21. tobi0040
    In that scenario jay, I think someone has to go. Beyond a very short time period, I don't think this kid stays at 3b. So I would rather keep a 3b that adds a few wins and is still cheap. And I would not trade Sano and we could not move mauer even if we wanted to. So IMO you have Arcia and Vargas. It really comes down to who would you rather have in a corner, Sano or Arcia?
  22. tobi0040
    Are you indicating Sano could be a very good defensive 3B? I have not heard anyone make that prediction. Most indicate he may struggle to stay at 3B because he is too big and does not have the footwork.
  23. tobi0040
    Well I heard that 92% of the time Joe has a runner on first he hits into a double play* *Implies I am kidding
  24. tobi0040
    I looked up Morneau and his timeline relative to his concussion. He had the concussion in 2010. Career 15.2% K rate and .483 slugging. 2011 - 15.3% K rate. .333 Slugging 2012 - 17.9% K rate .440 Slugging 2013 - 17.3% K rate. .441 Slugging 2014 - 10.9% K rate. .496 Slugging I looked up Span, but it looks like he has dealt with concussions in many years since he has been here. Justin's slugging dipped a ton that first year and it took a move to Colorado to get it back above career averages. The K's spiked in years 2 and 3.
  25. tobi0040
    I would argue that Mauer may be better at one or two than anyone else. So you have to look at relative to the next best option.....
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