Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

tobi0040

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,776

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    10

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    The Twins will may add to the rotation, add some talent, and add depth but this team will never build a rotation through free agency. Pelfrey and Hughes are both buy low situations, which we feel like we got value. Nolasco has a 4.37 career ERA and cost $11M a year. The Greinke's, soon to be Scherzer and Shields are not signing with us. So my two cents says taking the best arm, if we don't feel like we are giving up much value.
  2. tobi0040
    I eyballed BABIP earlier in the day and was off. Good point on the K rate. I am optimistic. His BA against is 60 basis points higher than his career rate. Before the year we thought the key for him was keeping the ball in the park. His 1.20 HR/9 is far lower than his 1.48 and 1.65 of the last two years.
  3. tobi0040
    He has given up 20 hits, 5 BB, and 17 K in 15 IP. If his career BABIP of .265 or so was applied, he would have about 7 fewer hits. 15 IP, 13 H, 5 BB, 17 K. That is a WHIP of 1.20 and 10.24 K per 9 innings. You give me that over the next 3 years and these discussions will be very different.
  4. tobi0040
    Yeah, quite the gap between ERA (7.20) and FIP (3.72). I count six pitches in the zone called as balls and exactly zero pitches out of the zone called strikes.
  5. tobi0040
    Knuckler or a Mariano Rivera type where nobody can square him up. Rivera's HR per 9 was .5, Deduno has a very impressive .8 in MLB.
  6. tobi0040
    Going off memory, I think Hughes has had 12 scoreless innings and 12 ER in the other 3. So on top of an unlucky BABIP, that bad luck has been squeezed into three innings for the most part.
  7. tobi0040
    In my humble opinion, when the super 2 deadline passes in June, Meyer should be up here and bump the most inneffective between Pelfrey and KC. If they are both pitching well, trade one. 2012 - 129 IP, 2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 139K 2013 - 78 IP, 2.99 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 100K 2014 - 10.1 IP, 2.61 ERA, .97 WHIP, 11 K
  8. tobi0040
  9. tobi0040
    We certainly have more depth, and that is a good thing. Last year Deduno would not have been in the pen. But I am more excited about the quality, not the quantity. Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson are good pitchers and in my eyes none is a #5 starter. And of course you have Meyer who is more talented then them all. He is hands down the best pitching prospect we have brought up since 2006. Then before that 2003.
  10. tobi0040
    I made this comp on another Kyle Gibson thread. But he is similar to Brandon Webb, albeit not quite as good. Typical sinker pitchers like Carlos Silva or Pelfrey have very low K rates, 4 per 9 and 5.2 per 9 for their careers. Brandon Webb was a guy that kept the ball down and was still able to K 7.2 batters per nine in his career. Here are his career numbers: Webb - 3.27 ERA, 7.2 K per 9, 64.2% career ground ball rate. .63 HR per 9. In the minors, Gibson had 337 IP and 337 K. His last year at AAA he had 7.75 K per 9 and allowed only .44 HR per 9. I can't find minor league ground ball/fly ball ratios, but so far Gibson has a ground ball rate of 58.8% this year versus 50.3% last year. That is one of the reasons why he has been better this year. If Gibson can keep his 58.8% ground ball rate or improve it and get his K rate up over 6, he will be a good #2 or #3 starter in this league. I think the K rate is low because of the ump's, as others have pointed out.
  11. tobi0040
    He had a sub 3.00 ERA last year in AAA with 7.75 K per 9. And his MO is ground balls.
  12. tobi0040
    Yeah, but Webb was able to put up great numbers with only a 7 k per 9, because os his ground balls. Pitchers usually are either K guys or ground ball guys. Webb was able to excel at the ground balls and still K some people. I think that is Gibson's MO. If he can K 6-7 per 9, he is going to be good. Not ace good, but very good. The few that come to my mind are Carlos Silva, he had 4 K per 9. Pelfrey has a career 5.2 K per 9.
  13. tobi0040
    I don't have data, but I believe I have read his slider induces a lot of ground balls, versus a Liriano, Randy Johnson, etc.
  14. tobi0040
    Yeah, I agree. He is getting no respect and hopefully that will come in time and help his numbers. A TD article said only 73 percent of his pitches in the zone were called for strikes last year, the league average is 81%. He was close to the worst.
  15. tobi0040
    Beede looks an awful lot like Trevor May to me. The Twins don't really care that May has struck out 814 batters in 680 innings. Last year he K'd 159 in 151 innings. His ERA was 4.15 if you remove his best two and worst two starts. His BB per 9 was just a tad over 3 in that sample. But we were dissapointed and will not promote him until he gets the BB's down. Seems like an awful match.
  16. tobi0040
    Webb was a very, very good pitcher. Career 3.27 ERA, has won 22 games. 33 WAR across only 6 seasons. I think 4.8 K per 9 in the major leagues is an anomoly. First, we are going off 11 innings. A little early to get into ratios like that. For his MLB career his K per 9 is 5.1, even that is only 62 IP. In the minors he had 337 K's in 337 IP. Last year in AAA, he had 87 K in 101 IP (7.75 K per 9). His K's were pretty consistent from high A, AA, and AAA. He was not one of those who racked up a ton in rookie league.
  17. tobi0040
    2012 - 4.52 ERA, 71 IP, 68 K, .287 BA against. 3.95 BB per 9. 2013 - 2.10 ERA, 94 IP, 97 K, .179 BA against, 5.26 BB per 9 (not a typo). 2014 - 2.81 ERA, 48 IP, 52 K, .175 BA against, 3.0 BB per 9. I hope he manages his control enough so that someone in front of us takes him. This has us changing his delivery to gain better control written all over it.
  18. tobi0040
    If they both have very good stuff and one has control question marks and one doesn't, I think you take the one without. I am guessing we won't be drafting at #5 next year and this is a loaded draft. So it is a pretty important pick.
  19. tobi0040
    It looks like the three that will be gone are Aiken, Rodon, and Kolek. I would be pretty surprised if we have a shot. I think the mix at #5 is Hoffman, Beede, Jackson, and maybe one of the SS. My biggest fear at this point is one of the pitchers in front of us gets injured (elbow, shoulder, forearm which drops velocity, hip like Mannaea last year). Then the talent all moves up a pick.
  20. tobi0040
    Just give Santana a shot now. He is going to hit 100 basis points better than Florimon and probably as good as Nunez, but be better defensively (than Nunez). Consistency out of our SS is not really that important this year. None of these other guys are the SS on the 2015 or 2016 team.
  21. tobi0040
    I think K per 9 is not a great way to evaluate a guy whose main objective is to keep the ball down and get ground balls. Having said that, I think Gibson will settle in with a slightly higher K/9 than 4.8. I think his ceiling is Brandon Webb-light. Webb was a great pitcher, a decent 7k per 9 and high ground ball rate. In watching Gibson's starts so far, he has good movement and kept the ball down very well. Webb's numbers. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/webbbr01.shtml
  22. tobi0040
    I would guess we take Hoffman over Beede. Beede has had some control issues
  23. tobi0040
    Dozier is pushing his way to be a top 10 2B. I don't see Boston giving up what it would take to pry him away, just to be a 2-3 months stop gap.
  24. tobi0040
    This is not happening. Drew for some money makes way more sense. I would like to see a team friendly deal for Dozier
  25. tobi0040
    I would like a guy that would field and hit. We already have a guy that can field and hit .200 with no power
×
×
  • Create New...