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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    I agree. Same reason why stars don't get traded for stars often. Fans are attached to their key guys and the Twins fans can't wait for Sano. Regarding Boegarts, I would rather have Sano. Don't get me wrong, I would love Boerarts at SS. But I see a gap between the two. I think Sano is Adam Dunn that will hit .260-.270 and Dunn may end up with 600 HR and close to hall of fame. Boegarts OPS in the minors is .750, he only hit double digits in HR twice and his career high in SB is 5. I know you can't compare the OPS of a 3B/DH to a SS. But if Boegarts is a .700 OPS guy up here, that is not special. Full disclosure: I am a little leary of any top ranked Yankee or Red Sox prospect.
  2. tobi0040
    I am not convinced any CF option we have is better than even a slumping Hicks. It is my personal belief that the best thing for his development is to gain confidence at the big league level. With a .321 OBP, even while hitting .188 we can wait. Fuld's career OBP is .316, OPS of .658 is higher than Hicks .597 but Hicks can only go up from here.
  3. tobi0040
    Meyer had one bad start, 3.2 IP, 5 ER. Here are the other 3: 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 K 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 11 K We can change "not sharp" to "not sharp in one start"
  4. tobi0040
    Never say never, but it would take a lot. Sano may hit .260-.270, 30-40 HR, and walk 100 times a year.
  5. tobi0040
    Clearly the best to come up since 2006. Liriano was amazing though, pre-TJ. 121 IP, 2.16 ERA, 144 K. That slider was unhittable. Meyer has a good slider too, but I can't imagine it was that good. Hopefully it means Meyer won't need Tommy John.
  6. tobi0040
    OK, so in the scenario where we have both catchers go down in the same game....we need to bake in the scenario where Mauer comes in for two innings and gets a real good shot in the head. He has almost 8,000 innings behind the plate.
  7. tobi0040
    Meyer pitched 129 innings in 2012 and 104 in 2013 between the minors and fall league. 150+ innings does not seem out of the question. He only has 20 IP so far. If he has another 8 starts before the June deadline at 6 IP a start, he has 82 innings before he reaches 150.
  8. tobi0040
    And further the wear and tear on Mauer's knees for 2 innings in that situation that will never happen. I think the Twins have one math major on their staff so they can say they are not behind the times. I am guessing this person has no sway at all.
  9. tobi0040
    Yeah, strategy and platooning. If only.
  10. tobi0040
    Plouffe's start is very encouraging. I would not be surprised if he is traded, assuming we get a Denard Span like return. A lot of teams are weak at 3B. If we keep Plouffe, he would be a nice piece on a contending team. He can play, 3B, 1B, LF, or RF and he crushes lefties (career .833 OPS). At minimum you have a very good bench/platoon player as well as depth. I am guessing the .900+ OPS does not continue. If that does he starts somewhere.
  11. tobi0040
    It is pretty simple, Meyer won't be up until the June deadline. After that deadline, nobody is in front of him. None of the guys on our roster or in AAA are on his level.
  12. tobi0040
    Boras never signs his guys at a discount. We paid Pelfrey $4-5M last year to rehab on our dime, and put up a 5.19 ERA in the process. Coming off that year, we gave him a two year deal. I would be shocked if he had another 2 year deal on the table. There is really no other way to look at it, we were the sucker in this situation. I just hope someone explains to the front office that deals like Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, and Mike Peflrey end up being extremely expensive on a per start basis. Livan made $5M from April to July, Marquis made $3M for seven starts. It appears Pelfrey will have made $11M for 5-6 starts and 3-4 bullpen appearances before we realize we are much better off with Deduno, Swarzak, or a number of different options out there. On the margin, we never have $8M each offseason for a player that will improve our team, but it seems we have $5M every year in dead weight.
  13. tobi0040
    I am confused as well. In key situations, we were told Joe should try and hit a HR, which he has done in 2% of his plate appearances over his career. Instead of getting on base. Now we are winning because of walks.
  14. tobi0040
    I agree with Die Hard, Smith inherited a good team and had 100+ million dollar payrolls. I think Smith didn't understand you can't have enough pitching (Garza trade). His moves in general were bad to good about 3 to 1.
  15. tobi0040
    I enjoyed the article as well. I wish someone would publish some data on how much more a pitcher today pitched in youth/threw breaking balls versus pitchers 10 or 20 years ago. I think they are on to something, but it would be nice to have some data.
  16. tobi0040
    Couple of things. A-Rod signed a 10 year, $252 million dollar deal in 2000. I beleive that was the highest deal until 2007, when he got 10-275. That is only a 9% increase and it took seven years. In the last year or two, I think Miguel Cabrera and Kershaw's deal are the only larger deals on a per year basis, at $29.2M a year (Miggy) and $30.7M (Kershaw). Kershaw's deal is only 11.6% more than A-Rod's and it took seven years to go up by that amount. So a 33% increase in just four years (when Trout would have been a free agent) seems unlikely. The other key is, when Trout was on a year by year basis, he carried all the injury risk. If he had concussions, major knee injuries, etc. it would be him that was out the money. Now that he has $144M guaranteed, all of that risk transferred to the Angels. A price should be put on that and on this deal I don't see how the Angels got him for less. I think this was a situation where they wanted to keep their best player happy. This was not a team friendly Evan Longoria, 6 year $36M deal. If the union guys think he is not paid well, that is their issue. I don't know how they can look at Cano and Pujols 10-240 and think Trout is going to get $380M over 10 years just four years later. I think the union wants a guy like Trout to go through each step of abrbitration so they have new records to go off of. With a deal like this, the ceiling is still Ryan Howard or whoever.
  17. tobi0040
    I am not convinced the Angels saved any money at all. The last two years on his deal pay him $35M and $38M. Miggy's deal is about $30M a year, so I don't see how Trout is going to make 33% more than that. The average of Trout's deal is $24M a year over six years. Regarding arbitration, the highest ever award I believe is $10M for Ryan Howard. While Trout would certainly get more than that, he would not sniff $24M. So to me it looks like they wanted to keep the guy happy and overpaid him.
  18. tobi0040
    Maybe not ace, but you can get a guy slipping due to signability. An injury concern. A guy like Gonslaves who was first round talent.....that is why the Eades pick didn't make much sense to me.
  19. tobi0040
    Absolutely, you need ace upside. I would argue the same in the second round. If a guys ceiling is #4 or #5 starter, what is the point? You can sign them for $7M a year. On a side note, I was really hoping none of the top pitchers would get hurt. I hope that Hoffman is fine.
  20. tobi0040
    My understanding is if you bring a guy up before April 29th or so, you get an additional year of control. If you wait until June 1 to June 15th or so, the super 2 deadline passes and while the control is the same, you swap a year at a rookie salary for a year of arbitration. For a player that turns out to be very good, the difference could be up to $10M.
  21. tobi0040
    His fastball is obviously plus. His slider is above average. If he develops an average change, this kid is going to be a monster.
  22. tobi0040
    A downside exists with this. What if starting mid-game, not knowing if they will pitch that day, or starting mid-inning messes with their routine and results? Then you have confidence working the other way.
  23. tobi0040
  24. tobi0040
    I think the move is to swap Deduno and Pelfrey now and bring up Meyer or May in June (after the arbitration deadline). The other should be up if someone gets hurt or is inneffective.
  25. tobi0040
    2-3 days after all this something is wrong talk, his OBP is up to .365 and climbing.
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