Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

tobi0040

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,776

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    10

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    Kind of like when my little nephew and I play basketball. You let him score, don't call double dribble, etc.
  2. tobi0040
    Yeah, battling more than makes up for the 8.00 ERA. If they want to, I can go out there and battle. I will do it for the league minimum.
  3. tobi0040
    The funny thing is you have two different blogs, this and the live game blog. Pretty similar theme though. Everyone wants Terry to give him another two year extension.
  4. tobi0040
    I disagree. He is a good clubhouse guy. You throw him out there for 3 IP like today. He may give up 5 ER and have a WHIP over 3. But when he gets back to the club house he will give a Herb Brooks like speech. We will rally and win this game.
  5. tobi0040
    His 2008 and 2010 was based on luck. His runners stranded were about 74% and he is a career 70%. BABIP was a bit lower. His K rate was still under 5 per 9 IP. xFIP was 4.45 and 4.31 versus a career 4.55.
  6. tobi0040
    23 IP, 21 ER. Let's throw him out there one more inning and even this out.
  7. tobi0040
    I have a thought. The current process is to bring in Deduno in the 3rd or 4th inning, down 4 runs every time Peflrey starts. Why not just start Deduno and skip the giving up the 5 runs part?
  8. tobi0040
  9. tobi0040
    I really don't think his ceiling is even slightly above league average. His ERA has been good-ish in 2 of 8 years (2008 and 2010). In 2008 he stranded 74.3% of his runners and in 2010 he stranded 73.7% versus his career 70.2%. His xFIP in those "good years" were 4.45 and 4.31 versus a career 4.55. BABIP was slightly better than average in both years as well. It was luck more than anything else, awful k rates of 4.93 and 4.99 per 9. He is frankly not a good pitcher. Ceiling maybe a bad #4 starter. Reality is he is a #5 starter at best. I agree he can be better than a 7.00 ERA guy and he will likely get better. But it is time to move on. He is not one of our 5 best starters. His contract should not have happened but it is a sunk cost. Nick Blackburn got 161 innings with a 5.42 ERA in 2010 and a staggering 98 IP at a 7.39 ERA in 2012. Can we skip this exercise please?
  10. tobi0040
    Rule of thump, one of your five guys will get hurt or fall off the wagon. A few years ago we had so much pitching we traded Matt Garza. Blackburn and Slowey are not what we thought they were and Baker has been hurt.
  11. tobi0040
    The insurance part is tricky. If he got hurt to the point he could never play again he gets a payout. But in a more likely scenario where he is damaged and plays a little, his stock drops and his contract is much lighter. Insurance rarely covers where you will be drafted, only a payout in the event you can't play at all due to injury. In the scenario Max is pointing to, this reduces the chances he ever gets the big payday.
  12. tobi0040
    You missed the point. Look how much risk he took on. What if he struggled, got hurt, or his velo dropped last year at Stanford? I would guess he had at least a 25% shot of that happening. Now he goes 25th overall or something. Let's not forget, he went 8th overall because of Boras demands in the first place. The slot at 1-1 was $7.9M and he ended up getting only $6.3M the following year. AND, he is now another year removed from arbitration and free agency. Just silly. http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2013-mlb-assigned-draft-pick-values
  13. tobi0040
    I really like the platoon idea. Escobar has a career .704 OPS against lefties. I am guessing we have someone in our system or we can sign one cheap that has a reasonable OPS against righties. Obviously, you want to actually solve the problem by getting someone good. But I have my doubts. This would be a good plan B but I am sure this is too innovative for the Twins. Gardy probably has some unwritten rule/random thought on my it is a better idea to have one single guy with a .400 OPS.
  14. tobi0040
    Or listen to the people around you that care about you, not your agent. Scott Boras has a portfolio of 100's of clients. So if Appel turned down #8 money to go back to school, he was taking on a lot more risk than Boras, who is obviously already a multi-millionaire. Same for a guy like Max Scherzer. Boras would love you to turn down $150M and become a free agent in a year. If he does that with each of his 100 clients, he will be better rewarded because although a few will get hurt, he will still end up ahead with those that didn't (not to mention his clients that hit the FA market will push up the highest AAV values, helping his other clients). But if you are Appel or Scherzer, take the security.
  15. tobi0040
    He failed two, the first is a warning.
  16. tobi0040
    Speculating, probably an embarrassing headline ina paper nobody will read like the Cedar Rapids chronicle or Rochester Gazette.
  17. tobi0040
    Here are my thoughts. Anyone of these guys would be a bigger upgrade on the offensive side than what we lose defensively. In addition to signing one, why not pluck a SS prospect in AA or AAA from one of the 10 or so teams with a really good SS? I am guessing the Braves, Rangers, Red Sox, Cubs, Indians, Diamondbacks, etc. have something in the minors better than we have in Floriomon. Didi comes to mind, but I am guessing more exist. I am wondering about the Twins defensive requrements for the SS position. We could probably rattle off 8 names of guys we have signed or drafted to play SS that we have moved to another position. Are all the teams in the league as picky as us? Maybe we have created this issue for ourselves? If I am not mistaken, wasn't Lawrie talked about in the Santana trade (with Boston) and we didn't think he was a SS?
  18. tobi0040
    I personally think it should be legal in the US and should not be included in minor league testing. Having said that, it is and Rosario had to know it. I also believe you first get a warning, then a 50 game suspension on your second offense. So it seems wreckless and extremely immature on Rosario's part.
  19. tobi0040
    Frankly, Meyer is the only one that we know for sure. May is probably the only other guy and that is if he is consistent. Meyer, Nolasco, and Hughes are locks. Gibson is probably going to be here and we have plenty of money to spend on another.
  20. tobi0040
    Amen. I have seen many point to the ERA's of Darnell, Pino, etc. and suggest a long line exists between Meyer and the Twins. I see Johnson was called up for a double header, that is fine as calling up Meyer for one start would force a roster move. When it is time for someone to be called up for good, it has to be Meyer. I am not going to look at numbers after four starts, I am going to look at the big picture. Johnson - 28 years old. 940 IP, 4.23 ERA, 6.3 K per 9. Darnell - 25 years old. 576 IP, 3.98 ERA, 6.3 K per 9. May - 24 years old. 695 IP, 4.08 ERA, 10.7 K per 9. Pino - 30 years old. 1,055 IP, 3.79 ERA, 8.1 K per 9. Meyer - 24 years old. 234 IP. 2.88 ERA. 10.5 K per 9. One of these does not look like the other. Regarding an innings limit for Meyer, great point by CMAT. Why waste those in Rochester? Also, the longevity over the last 3-5 years of guys that throw upper 90's, a good amount of sliders, with a more violent delivery is not great. Maybe we only get 200, 400, or 600 innings of freakish numbers out of him. Get him up here. We are 1.5 games out of first place. Meyer and Deduno over Pelfrey and KC could make a reasonable rotation with upside.
  21. tobi0040
    In any event, they are close offensively and Hicks certainly has more upside than the 32 year old Fuld. I am guessing Hicks is better defensively as well, certainly has a better arm. If we still had Pressley, maybe AAA for Hicks would make more sense.
  22. tobi0040
    Could be, but to your point the startping point is a not a very good pitcher. I think the next two months will be our tyipcal Twins process of half scholarship because of the contract and half "denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance". I think the fans skipped denial the second the contract was signed, we jumped right to anger and we are currently in acceptance. The Twins are in stage 1 or 2. Bargaining is either a DL stint or putting him in the bullpen. Either way I think we have 20-30 more innings at a 6.00-7.00 ERA before we hit acceptance and the realization that we have 7-9 relievers and 7-9 starters who can do a better job. See one Nick Blackburn for the full five stages.
  23. tobi0040
    And with better options. Deduno is an instant replacement. We have about four starters in AAA I like more than Pelfrey and 3-4 relievers as well.
  24. tobi0040
    Maybe he came back too early? I am not going to waste a ton of time trying to figure it out. He has had two good years out of 8. Time to get someone with talent up here.
  25. tobi0040
    If Mudcat, Bert, or Viola were here longer than they would have a shot. Same with Johan (he would have needed more longevity anyway). I think you go Puck, Carew, Killebrew, and Mauer.
×
×
  • Create New...