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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    But I am guessing Tomas settles in the MLB as a guy that does not put up Nelson Cruz numbers, but Cruz will be much cheaper. That is the point. If you can get Colby Rasmus for 1-10 or 3-30, why would you give Tomas $100M over 6 years? Rasmus will at minimum be a better defender while probably outperforming Cespedes offensively....who looks better than Tomas. This is like the shiny new X-Mas toy that nobody cares about on December 27th.
  2. tobi0040
    In my view, the Twins would be foolish to sign this guy. Many think he will get $100M over six years or so. If you look at his numbers from Cuba at the same age, in the same league….Cespedes had much better numbers (Abreu's numbers put them both to shame.). Including power numbers which is supposed to Tomas strength. After his first year when no tape existed, Cespedes has put up an OPS of .737 and .719. On the FA ranking below, the players ranked 2-8 behind Tomas all have a better career OPS than the numbers Cespedes has put up. These guys are all going to get contracts with less money and fewer years. Now I get some of these guys are old and have defensive issues, but several scouts have questioned Tomas defense as well. If we are going to drop $100M, lets sign a pitcher which is the actual problem we have. Cruz .829 OPS Melky .754 OPS Markakis .793 OPS Rasmus .751 OPS Hunter .799 OPS Cuddyer .813 OPS Rios .762 OPS http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2115336-how-hyped-defector-yasmani-tomas-compares-to-recent-cuban-phenoms http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2014-11-06/free-agents-2015-ranking-best-top-10-outfielders-cruz-cabrera
  3. tobi0040
    If Seattle is in win now mode, they aren't trading Taijuan Walker. In 53 IP, he has a 2.89 ERA and 46 K. Only 22 years old, he will be part of the winning. He is a much better than Meyer or May.
  4. tobi0040
    You need to throw in Duensing, now we are talking big time prospect.
  5. tobi0040
    So he has put up about league average numbers (3.83 ERA is above average, 4.36 FIP is poor). His k rate is league average and rising. And he has put those numbers up at a young age. He had the rookie of the year, 4th in AL ERA one year, and 4th in hits per 9 at an age where Meyer and May would have still been in the minors. I will take him over what we will sign this off-season. That is the broader point here.
  6. tobi0040
    Career FIP is 4.36, in the best division in baseball and ages 23-27. His k rate has steadily increased as well. Given what we are likely to sign this off-season....like Brett Anderson who has pitched about 200 IP in the last four seasons.....I would have taken Hellickson. Even if he is a solid 3 I think that is better than what we will sign this off-season.
  7. tobi0040
    Hellickson still has two years of abr left. I would have been happy if this was our pitching acqusition (assuming we aren't in on the top four guys). He provides more upside than the rest of the characters out there, IMO.
  8. tobi0040
    Hellickson had a 2.95 ERA at 24 and a 3.10 ERA at 25 in the AL East, while pitching 187 and 177 IP. Then had an ERA of 5.17, FIP of 4.22 and K'd 7 per 9 at 26. Then hurt at 27. Looks like a ton of upside to me.
  9. tobi0040
    True, but when you are ten years behind you will always be behind. It is very hard to jump ahead 10 years and then keep up with the changes going on right now. Goin joined the twins in ticket sales in 2000. Then was major league administration in 2009, then baseball research in 2011 according to Beradino. It also takes a GM that is in the know and coordination between the departments. This article suggests the Twins were seeking ground ball pitchers in 2012 and the stats pointed them to Worley, Pelfrey, and Correia. http://www.twincities.com/ci_23098690/minnesota-twins-join-moneyball-era-behind-mystery-man
  10. tobi0040
    I have accepted the fact that the Twins will never be on the cutting edge. Whether that be analysis, shifting, SABR, platooning, etc. Nothing I have seen over the last ten years suggests they are even within 10 years of the cutting edge. Teams were shifting Bonds and others in the early 2000's. The A's, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. were hiring Ivy League MBA and statisticians in their front office in the early 2000's. Platooning was happening a 100 years ago. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platoon_system The Twins will show up to the race with a horse they got a good deal on, only to be beaten by the first Model T. Ten years later they will conclude they need to buy a car. So they will go out and buy the model T that beat their horse in a race 10 years ago.
  11. tobi0040
    True, but the stats on the link are at the same age.
  12. tobi0040
    At this point the best barameter is what they did in the same league at the same age. You can see that Abreeu and Tomas should not be compared to one another. 3x the HR. 2.5x the BB. 30% more 2B. 100 more points on the batting average. The other site I can't find right now showed the OPS comp. Off memory Abreau was in the 1.25 or 1.30 range and Tomas was in the .850 range. In one of the three seasons Abreau had an OPS of 1.45. Tomas does not draw a favorable comp to Cespedes, who in my opinion is wildly overrated. The guy is a .750 OPS type corner OF. Which is about league average. Tomas vs. Cespedes vs. Abreu (Ages 21-23) Years G AB AVG R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K Tomas 2012-2014 229 779 .293 119 48 6 31 145 71 155 Abreu 2008-2010 252 845 .392 236 64 4 86 243 159 161 Cespedes 2007-2009 261 1036 .309 252 54 6 72 221 117 135 http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2115336-how-hyped-defector-yasmani-tomas-compares-to-recent-cuban-phenoms This sums it up for me, from Keith Law: However, the fact that Tomas' numbers in Cuba weren’t as impressive as Abreu, Cespedes or Puig’s doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t receive a big payday once eligible to sign. According to Law, “Tomas might get paid like Jose Abreu or Yasiel Puig, but he’s not in their class as a prospect, and if paid similarly, he would be benefiting from how successful Abreu and Puig have been.”
  13. tobi0040
    Yeah, I think what may happen is everyone will want to get the next Abreau, except Tomas is not as good. So Tomas is going to get the contract that Abreau should have received and vice versa. If you go and look at their numbers in Cuba, you could not put up Abreau's on a video game set on rookie level. Tomas's numbers don't jump out as incredible. The other thing, when an unknown guy (from Japan or Cuba) comes into the league they tend to regress after their first or second year as tape and tendencies get known. Cespedes had a great first year. I think his OPS was in the .850-.900 range. Then he has basically been a .750 OPS guy the next two years. Hideo Nomo went from Cy Young caliber to a bum. As did Dice-K. Yu has been an exception in his three years. I would expect Abreau to regress from his .964 OPS and 36 HR. But Tomas is going to be compensated based on Abreau's .964.
  14. tobi0040
    If the scouts are right (nowhere near the hitter Abreau is, low OBP, and poor defense), I think the "winner" may end up being a loser here. Especially if the 6-100 people are expecting is the contract doled out. At $15M a year.....what type of a player does he have to be in order to exceed that contract? Matt Holiday signed 7-120. A known commodity, track record of sucess in the league, career .908 OPS. And this guy is going to be handed that? I think this Cuban market is turning into a bubble.
  15. tobi0040
    Hicks was adament before the MLB draft that he would not pitch. Many thought he would have gone earlier if he wanted to pitch. But the Twins only really had a shot at him as an OF. Now maybe if he is 25-26 and can't find a job that will change. But my gut tells me if he makes the switch it would be after the Twins cut him and he can't find work as an OF (when it is clear to him he can either make $500K a year as a reliever or find work in the private sector for slightly less pay)
  16. tobi0040
    3 years and 25-30m for Brett Anderson? IP by Year 2009 175 IP 2010 112 IP 2011 83 IP 2012 35 IP 2013 44 IP 2014 43 IP
  17. tobi0040
    The good news is we reached out to Torii Hunter on the first day. So our priorities are in order. SARCASM
  18. tobi0040
    It is hard to argue here. Signing one guy better than what you have. Then forcing a competition is always a good thing.
  19. tobi0040
    The Cards have done a really good job building from within, drafting and developing. That is without question. I don't know if they have avoided free agency "at all costs" though. They certainly have been willing to dole out the types of contracts that are doled out in free agency. The types of contracts that get teams in trouble. Whether that be in free agency or extending their own players is really not a big difference. For example: They had 10 years and $210M on the table for a 31 year old Albert Pujols. They then turned around and give a 30 year old Holiday 7 years and $120M. They extended Wainwright fives years for 97M, ages 32-37 They signed Peralta on the FA market at age 31, 4 years and $53M after he was tied to PED's They certainly were lucky someone outbid them for Pujols. They still owe Wainwright $80M over the next four years and he is 33. This is a guy that had TJ in 2011 and then has pitched 666 innings in the following three years.
  20. tobi0040
    I would take that over nothing, just for depth. But it would be a let down if we don't pursue Rasmus and/or options in the trade market.
  21. tobi0040
    I think Rasmus will have about 10 teams offering him a one year deal. So I think a team option is out of the question. I would not be shocked if he ends up signing a 1 year deal with someone where the contract stipulates the team can't offer him arbitration at the end of the year. I have not read he is a head case, is that true?
  22. tobi0040
    I think a rock and hard place does not do them justice. On another thread, someone said their best prospect is in the mold of Walker/Kepler. The 2018 Tigers have $75M committed to a 39 year old Victor Martinez, 36 year old Cabrera, and 35 year old Verlander. That jumps to over $100M with a 34-35 year old Scherzer if they re-sign him.
  23. tobi0040
    It is a shame the issues with Buxton and Rosario last year. Now the Twins have a weak OF again this year and probably sign a mid 30's stopgap for one year.
  24. tobi0040
    I guess the issue with standing pat is you start the year with an OF of Hicks, Arcia, Schafer, and probably Danny Ortiz. Rosario and Buxton probably start the year in AA and both need a ton of reps given last year. What happens if Arcia blows his knee out? Yikes. I would love Rasmus or someone via trade. But I think Terry signs a guy in his 30's on a one year deal like Morgan.
  25. tobi0040
    They apparently didn't look at home/road splits since at Coors field either: 2012 .858 OPS at home, .755 on the road 2013 .997 OPS at home, .852 on the road 2014 1.255 OPS at home, .734 on the road What this should scream to them is MLB average corner OF production offensively (when healthy) and of course bad defense and durability.
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