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tobi0040

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Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    We have four starters with spots and rightfully so. They have earned those spots, even Ricky Nolasco, contract be dammed has a career worthy of a MLB starting pitcher. Mike Pelfrey has no reason making this team ahead of Meyer or May (or even Milone). It does not help this team in the short, medium, or long term to give him any additional reps. He is not part of the present or future. If he makes the team it will be in the same vein as the other players listed. Veteran with a contract over what is best for the club.
  2. tobi0040
    And Molitor was a guy known for fundamentals and footwork. BRef has his range factor at third with six top five finishes in the ALfrom 82 to 89. His initial assessment of Sano has not been good. This could be a guy whose tolerance is a little lower. Range Factor/Game as 3B s 1982 AL 3.12 (3rd) 1983 AL 3.07 (5th) 1985 AL 2.88 (5th) 1986 AL 2.77 (2nd) 1988 AL 2.60 (5th) 1989 AL 2.87 (3rd) I wish the Twins just threw out personal preferences and they asked Jack Goin and a third party to run an analysis. How many balls at 3B do you think Plouffe will get to that Sano won't? How many additional errors will Sano make? How many of those runners will score. Then quantify the difference in their offenses.
  3. tobi0040
    18 of the 33 Gopher players are older than Berrios.
  4. tobi0040
    I think it is fair to say guys owed money have been given a longer leash. Blackburn comes to mind. Rarely do you see a guy get 160 IP at a 5.50 ERA, or 98 IP at an ERA above 7. And nothing we have seen over the last two years suggests Pelfrey should be a consideration for the #5 spot. Absolutely nothing.
  5. tobi0040
    My hope is that Molitor had a few pre-conditions about taking this job, and veto rights for Pelfrey was one of them.
  6. tobi0040
    I guess the bolded part begs the question, what would Pelfrey have to do in the 12 spring innings he will get (against minor leagers) that would allow the Twins to conclude he wins the job? He could go scoreless and I could care less.
  7. tobi0040
    If Pelfrey is the 5th starter, it is business as usual. The name and number of the manager has changed, but the GM is still calling the shots and has not deviated from the typical April to May field a horrible veteran team strategy. Then adjust to the best players in June. Pelfrey = Livan, Ortiz, Bautista, Pontoon, Castro, Bartett circa 2014, etc.
  8. tobi0040
    Well, Sano's prospect ranking is likely higher because he may stick at 3B. That would fall a tad if he projected as a corner OF or more if he was a DH. Still an elite prospect, but he likely falls behind most of the high end short stops for example. And comments on these boards should be enough proof that Plouffe is drastically undervalued. He added 3.5 WAR last year at a position we haven't had even average play since about 2004. He was second among position players in WAR on the team (Dozier). He would have been 3rd overall on the world series champion Giants, behind only Posey and Pence. Ahead of Bumgarter and the $95M Panda.
  9. tobi0040
    In that scenario jay, I think someone has to go. Beyond a very short time period, I don't think this kid stays at 3b. So I would rather keep a 3b that adds a few wins and is still cheap. And I would not trade Sano and we could not move mauer even if we wanted to. So IMO you have Arcia and Vargas. It really comes down to who would you rather have in a corner, Sano or Arcia?
  10. tobi0040
    In five years mauer will be off the books and 80 percent of our roster will be on rookie deals and in arbitration (or on sweetheart deals that start low). Assume he loses 40 percent of his WAR as he is 30, which is not that old, he is a 3 WAR player making 12m a year and will be gone by the time others get more expensive. And it also creates a culture where performance is rewarded. That is exactly what we want. Hungry, young, motivated players.
  11. tobi0040
    Completely agree. If Hunter is worth $10M with mentoring making up a large chunk of that...having Dozier around at an average of 8-9M to do that as well as accumulate WAR at a rate of 5 a year is not a bad thing. That WAR can steadlily go down to the 3 range toward the end and that is okay
  12. tobi0040
    Agreed on Johan Age 28 219 IP, 3.33 ERA Age 29 234 IP, 2.53 ERA Age 30, 166 IP, 3.13 ERA Age 31, 199 IP, 2.98 ERA
  13. tobi0040
    Looking at the forest through the trees, you have to wonder what the impact on guys like Sano, Buxton, and Meyer are when they see players get paid before they needed to be, versus going year to year. Johan Santana and Torii Hunter seemed to, at times bring a negative attitude into the clubhouse about how cheap the organization is. Both made comment after comment about wanting extensions. Torii at one point said "we didn't have enough yen" for a Japanese free agent. That negativity has to impact younger players and potential free agents. so, I guess I would probably not do it. But this amount of money should not impact any decisions we make and how we build a team. The guy is good enough to be a good player on a good team, and I think the move has some fringe benefits like I just mentioned. So it is hard for me to get really upset about it. It seems hypocritical for me to sit and complain for years and years about how cheap the organization is, then say they paid a really good player $45M too soon.
  14. tobi0040
    I think what is partially to blame for the wonky results is you are comparing all players in baseball to sample set that excludes any player under 28 or so (or almost all of them). It is very rare that a player in his rookie deal, arbitration, or first team friendly deal sniffs $20M a year. That begs your point though, why pay him if you don't have to
  15. tobi0040
    I am more sold on the why do the deal when you have this much control stance (assuming we are in the 6/45 or more range). But I have to say, I feel like 45M spread over the next six years for an above average 2B should not hurt this team. He has a long way to regress in order for him to simply be an average 2B, and this team is going to have a ridiculous numbers of players under control for the next 5-7 years. I am also glad to see the Twins shelling out money for premier talent. I would rather have this extreme than the old extreme, keep him year to year then trade him at the last minute and get no value back.
  16. tobi0040
    While I agree it doesn't mean we will keep him, the Span comp doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Span had three years left when we traded him and we had little hope of being good during that time period. With a Dozier contract and the prospects we have, that should not be the case.
  17. tobi0040
    Are we sure those 43 games at AAA in 2013 and 133 in 2014 are the real representation of Eduardo Escobar? Given that in between the two he went down to the Dominican and hit .254 with a .729 OPS in 55 games. He was about 10th on that team that I have literally not heard of a single player. And in 2014 everything dropped for him early. He had 16 XBH in 37 games in April and May. .400 BABIP in April and .406 in May. Then he had 27 XBH in the remaining 91 games. I think it is a tad premature to say he clicked and this is the guy he will be.
  18. tobi0040
    Start with 50 wins that most AAA clubs would be capable of. If you had a guy with Plouffe's 2014 value at every position, you have 81.5 wins (31.5 for 9 Plouffes + 50). Add Phil Hughes from last year (6.1) and you have a team that could win the AL central next year with 88 wins. Literally 9 of the guys you think we could replace with Eduardo Escobar, Phil Hughes, and 11 other replacement level pitchers and bench. His WAR would have been 3rd on the team that won the world series.
  19. tobi0040
    I think he gets first, second, and third. Just dump the guy, we have Escobar!
  20. tobi0040
    Yeah, the amount of wins a player adds should not be a consideration here
  21. tobi0040
    I am really baffled by two assertions here. How is a 3.5 WAR at possibly the weakest or second weakest position in MLB not have value? His WAR according to fangraphs was almost more than David Wright and Aramas Ramirez combined. More than Sandoval who just got a 95M deal. Escobar has a career .666 OPS. Even last year in BABIP fueled breakthrough for him he was 30 basis points behind Plouffe. Nothing in his past suggests we can expect anything like even that .720 in the future. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d
  22. tobi0040
    I agree that he would probably have more trade value. But I am way more bullish as Plouffe has a super utility guy than you. For starters, he was drafted as a short stop. So I think from a versatilty standpoint he could play about anywhere. He actually has. 340 games at 3B. 3 at 1B, 19 at 2B. 53 at SS. 23 in RF. Secondly, the guys career OPS against lefties is .823. So those would be great days to give someone like Arcia the day off. Lastly, without a guy like that around, when Sano or Mauer goes down all the sudden you get 80-100 games out of a guy like Escobar. Or the year we had Punto play the whole year at 3B. Mauer has missed a ton of time at 1B. Plouffe > Parmelee.
  23. tobi0040
    Among guys with 300 PA, he was 10th in WAR. Seems like that should get him to top 18. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/3b/sort/WARBR/order/true/minpa/300
  24. tobi0040
    But what if we get a player for Plouffe that is at least average and plays SS, or is a starter? I think that is entirely reasonable.
  25. tobi0040
    The question that needs to be answered is can Sano play 3B. If he can, Plouffe would likely have a lot more value to the Twins if he was traded (because of the scarcity at 3B) versus playing a corner OF spot. If Sano can't stick at 3B, Plouffe is a valuable player on this team at 3B. The last option is a super sub type role for Plouffe. He has always hit lefties very well, but he could also backup 3B, 1B, LF, and RF. But I think we could get a more valuable piece in a trade than a sub type player.
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