Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

tobi0040

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,776

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    10

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by tobi0040

  1. tobi0040
    For those counting at home... Milone 14 IP, 4.50 ERA, 15H, 8K, 4 BB. May 6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 2H, BB, 7 K Hopefully a strong 4-5 innings tomorrow will lock it up for May.
  2. tobi0040
    With some arguing for 5, 6, and 7 year deals for Arcia.
  3. tobi0040
    Todays outing for Milone leaves the door open for May. 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, and 3 K
  4. tobi0040
    I think CF this year will be some mix of Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton eventually. With all that young talent, I don't see the point for the Twins to give Schafer or Robinson any serious time.
  5. tobi0040
    All the guys probably had three weeks already with Torii. Between Hicks, Rosario, and Arcia, from April 1 to August I see two of them on the roster almost at all times. And frankly, if Buxton has half the work ethic, talent, and respect for the game he does not need any additional time with Torii Hunter. I don't mean that as a slight to Torii but as a compliment to Buxton. Hicks preparation and results, Arcia's results at times and demeanor, and Rosario's off the field activities tell me those are the guys most in need of mentorship.
  6. tobi0040
    My opinion. Hunter signed here because we offered the most money and it likely was not even close. He gets to check the box, come home, work with the young guys in camp and maybe for some period of time (Hicks, Rosario, and Buxton). If we are on pace for 77 wins in August and young guys are knocking on the door and needs reps, I think it makes sense for all parties if he is moved to a contender for one last hurrah. Just like Jim Thome. I guess I don't know who would object
  7. tobi0040
    I think the best outcome long term maybe that the winner of Arcia vs. Vargas is the DH and the other is moved. This does not need to be played out right now, but food for thought.
  8. tobi0040
    That is entirely reasonable. Whether Arcia does not make the team out of ST or is sent down in May, I would like to see a message sent that defense and effort matter
  9. tobi0040
    I personally think Arcia makes the team and I think Hicks gets another shot before being traded. Even if that means he starts in AAA and comes up at some point for one last chance. However, I will say that the Arcia comment is music to my ears. It does show me that defense is a factor when evaluating Arcia. Because when you factor in defense, I think Arcia vs. Rosario may end up being closer than people think....or maybe even favor Rosario.
  10. tobi0040
    I would not be too shocked if a July or August trade to a contender was not part of the discussions between Ryan and Hunter before he signed. If Buxton and Rosario are both ready to play in July or August, I don't see the Twins not giving them reps. Maybe that means Hunter plays in the OF twice a week and plays DH a few times, or maybe that means they move him to a contending team.
  11. tobi0040
    OK. I guess I assumed any extension involves some level of calculation of the odds of different scenario's regarding said players performance
  12. tobi0040
    I read it too. I don't think we trade Hicks if he does not make the team. One way or another I think he gets another shot. Whether that means he makes the team or goes to AAA to start and gets another month or two at some point this year. Regarding Arcia, I think he makes the team but if he continues to put up poor at bats and look really bad in LF he goes down at some point. I think it highlights to an extent how silly it was to put him in LF. Come July-August, I think the OF is Rosario in LF, Buxton in CF, and Arcia in right (Hunter traded). I think that is at least an average OF defense. Which means we see a huge improvement there.
  13. tobi0040
    I think the term "bets" sounds speculative, like blindly betting on red or black. But I would argue professional gamblers put at least as much calculation behind their wagers than many corporations do.
  14. tobi0040
    Agreed spy. Nice discussion as always mike.
  15. tobi0040
    It isn't the money though, if the Twins had him signed for five years I think they would play him over someone like Rosario even if it was hurting the club. If Pelfrey got 160 IP last year when he was less than two years away from his contract ending.......imagine a guy five years away.
  16. tobi0040
    What percentage chance do you think Arcia is a LF, RF, or DH for the 2017 Twins? If you were to handicap it. It is about 60-70% for me. I think it is a coin flip between who is a better hitter between him and Vargas and I think we will probably have two better options for LF and RF. So $20M that will result in a 30-40% chance we are playing a guy for multiple years that is not our best option is not a gamble I would not take. Especially since we should not have payroll issues over the time period. Heck, Nelson Cruz signed for $14.25M a year in free agency. How much do we think that first or second free agent year is going to cost us if we wait? Jeremy's post has $9M and $11M. Assume some inflation and it seems like we are paying $20M now to save $5-6M a year for a year or two....again on a team that should not have a large payroll. Mauer isn't making $23M anymore, almost the entire team is under control. Nolasco is gone by then. Salaries will escalate, so will cable contracts, ticket prices, jerseys, the value of the Twins, and the price of a beer.
  17. tobi0040
    I think we have a different definition of "minor financial risk". If we knew Arcia was our LF for the next five years and you do this deal, you have risk that he doesn't achieve his potential. That, considering the paltry financial commitment is minor to me. At least are paying a player that was going to be there anyways. In reality, Arcia does not have a firm grasp on the position. Having watched Pelfrey, on a 1 year and then a 2 year deal operate on scholarship, I think the risk is not minor that we have a better option and play Arcia for five years because he is on scholarship. I don't consider that minor. Or maybe you and I simply disagree on that concept. You are extremely certain Arcia is a LF or DH on this team over the next five years and I am a lot less certain. In which that makes complete sense that we would disagree about a deal like this. As a side bar, I think the cost rising aspect is not always an apples to apples comparison. 5-20 may happen now because you are amortizing the 500K he will make this year over five years. If you wait a year, the 500K in year 1 is gone and replaced with a FA year, so the overall contract looks a lot bigger, when in reality you have the player for another year in which he would have been a free agent.
  18. tobi0040
    $20M with options probably means $3M in buyouts. So we are locked into a 5 year, $23M deal for a guy that may not be one of the two best corner OF options and/or best DH option on this team when we are good again. If he had a firm grasp on his spot I would be all for it. But he doesn't. For example, if Rosario can have a .720-.750 OPS up here, I am guessing that would be a better player than Arcia in LF given the defensive aspect. This team is not going to have a payroll issue in the next five years, so we should get some clarity on these things first.
  19. tobi0040
    As far as early extensions go, I think the Twins should be done for this year after the Dozier one and I was on the fence there given the control they had through his prime. But if I was forced to extend guys, Arcia would not be even near the top of the list. Buxton and Sano, 1 and 2*. Barring what happens next year, I could see Gibson being more of a priority. If Sano does not stick at 3B, Plouffe would be a much higher priority to me. *To explain the hypocrisy between my hesitation because Arcia does not have a defined position and the perception that Sano does not as well. Sano is not a lock at 3B, but he is a lock somewhere.
  20. tobi0040
    He has a 196 basis point split thus far between his right and left OPS. Here are his minor league differential in OPS: 2013 - 206 basis points 2012 - 210 basis points 2011 - 174 basis points Maybe they just won't stabilize?
  21. tobi0040
    Not every player shows a platoon split of a .613 OPS against one side. The Twins on any given night would have a better chance to win with almost anyone off the bench starting in LF for Arcia against lefties. Escobar, for one would be better offensively and defensively.
  22. tobi0040
    Spot. On.
  23. tobi0040
    On the risk/reward scale, this seems way too far on the risky side. You could be giving a guy with question marks and not a defined role a 5-7 year contract. That seems completely foolish to me. Most guys that are given the 5-7 year deal early, at a minimum have a defined spot on the team. That should be an essential ingredient here. Nobody can honestly say Arcia has that.
  24. tobi0040
    The only certainty at this point is that Arcia has proven to be a very bad defensive outfielder. And a platoon type player at the plate. That might catch some off guard. But a career OPS split of .809/.613 is the definition of a platoon player. And he has struck out in over 30% of his at bats. He has a ton of upside, no doubt. But these are undeniable. It is not completely out of the question that four different guys could beat out Arcia for a corner OF spot (Rosario, Sano, Plouffe, Hicks, plus someone not on the radar) . Or that he proves himself incapable of playing in the field and he is beaten out by Vargas. So giving him a 5, 6, or 7 year deal seems really, really unneccesary at best.
  25. tobi0040
    Things that need clarity: Can Arcia play adequete defense? Can Arcia improve upon his sub .600 OPS against lefties? Can Arcia's offense outweigh someone like Rosario/Hicks/maybe Sano/Plouffe, in LF, given they will likely all play better defense? The Twins need to hit the pause button. So many things need to work themselves out.
×
×
  • Create New...