tobi0040
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Everything posted by tobi0040
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Thru 150 games, Gomez glove was worth 1.2 more games according to BREF and he had 20 more stolen bases. Thru his first five seasons, he topped 18 SB only one time. He stole 33 in 2008 making that 20 SB gap between the two more than it would have been at really any other time in his first five years. And Gomez was not a switch hitter, so the split part is a little less relevant. They averaged out to about the same OPS. I contend that even the people that argue for a complete rebuild would abandon that thought if they really saw it through. We can disagree and that is fine.
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Is going with a plan B at all after 150 games for Hicks fully committing to a rebuild? I would argue no, but most people here were calling for Hicks to be gone, criticizing the Twins for rushing him and not having a back up plan. HIcks first 150 games. OPS of .606 Gomez first 150 games. OPS Of .617. The next 150 games for Gomez weren' much better either. He was younger when he came up. But his OPS at the same age was .623 and then .655. Not a ton better and at that point Gomez had 400 games under his belt.
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I would have been most comfortable with the fully commit to a rebuid strategy as well. So we throw Hicks out there and he fails over a few hundred games. Now we have constant calls for Peter Bourjos. That is my point. Both the Twins and many posters have waffled on the approach. I don't know that the ownership or fans have what it takes to watch a true rebuild unfold, espcially in a new stadium
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In 2013, Hicks was a +.4, Pressly -.4, and Mastro a -.9. So Span adds an additional win there. In 2014, Hicks was +.2, Schafer +.3, and Danny Santana actually had a WAR of 3.9, with 69 of his 104 games in center. So Span actually is about a wash in 2014. By backing out KC, I was going off the assumption that the buying a real pitcher would mean we would not have signed KC. Either way, here is my broader point, people criticize the Twins for making a rebuiding type trade, and for not fully committing to rebuilding, for rusing guys like Hicks, and for not signing a stop gap centerfielder, for trading Span, and for blocking prospects. The logical part of my brain can't solve for the contradictory nature of all the various lines of criticism. I think the Twins have not let the GM fully commit to a rebuild because they have been too worried about public criticism, but I would also argue the wants and needs of the loyal fan base here has been at least as wishy washy in what they are looking for.
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I would just say that both options would lead to ridicule of TR by posters at TD. Plan A has more playing time for HIcks and Pelfrey. Those two are probably top 3 in terms of ridiculing the GM over the last 2-3 years. I question whether plan B is a good enough team. Desmond Jennings is an OK player, but teams that trade with the Rays usually get ripped off. And you still have Hicks and Arcia in the OF. Hasn't the OF defense been one of the biggest issues for the Twins? Is this hypothetical team good enough to make a difference and does that justify moving prospects?
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Game Thread: Twins vs Royals, 4/16/15 @ 12:10 CT
tobi0040 replied to Shane Wahl's topic in Archived Game Threads
He ran a quarter mile yesterday after that one ball. -
This could very well be self depricating, versus him speaking what he thinks. Just about every person that retires says something along these lines, or jokes that the company will be better off.
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They don't have the best rotation in the divison, let alone MLB. David Price. They have him for one year. They gave up 6 years of control for Smyly for him. He is either gone after this year or they will pay him $200+ million dollars from 30-37 or 38. Verlander. He is owed about $110M over the next 5 years. Grab your popcorn. Based on what I have seen over the last 1.5 years, this is going to be really, really bad. Sanchez - this one turned out really well for them. No argument. Simon. Are we really calling this a coup already? Green? Let's wait until gets 100 innings before we call this a coup as well.
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Two pages ago, you were criticizing the Twins for trading Span for Meyer, because Meyer has not produced yet and because we didn't have a suitable replacement. Meyer didn't pan out and Hicks failed, therefore it was a bad trade. Now you are advocating that we should have traded Suzuki, Perkins, Hughes, Doumit, and Willingham. That begs the question, who were the replacements we had at catcher, starter, LF, and closer? For these five trades to work out by the bar you have set, wouldn't we have needed a suitable replacement AND the players acquired to pan out?
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Can you walk me through an alternative plan from 2012 to 2014. With the benefit of hindsight? I can't get the math to work to us being meaningfully better. I also question whether the $110-$120M payroll in 2013 to 2015 makes a ton of sense, especially since the pitchers we could have signed are all now 30-32, declining as our other players come up.
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Done. Add Masahiro Tanaka. At the time unproven guy for $155M. He adds 3.3 WAR in 2014. We are up to 80 wins. That deal looked good for about 3-4 months. Now we owe $120M to a guy that has elbow issues. What is the payroll number we are targeting with this strategy? Do we have any history that suggests adding one free agent signing every off-season is a good strategy over time? I would argue this is what the Yankees have done and have a payroll cap some $60M more than ours, yet this strategy still hasn't worked for them. I mean, don't you usually buy guys in the 30-36 age range at max price? I would contend the Nolasco and Ervin signings that we all hate now is about what you get on the FA market unless you drop a lot of money and years on aging players (in most cases). Not to mention this strategy would have had the best benefit in years in which we were not going to be good. So when you get Sano and Buxton up here, 1-2 years in their careers these guys are washed up and we are all complaining about those signings as well.
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Had the Twins made you GM after the 2011 season. Can you outline your plan to contention? You have the beneift of hindsight.
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The biggest FA signing in 2013 was Greinke. He signed a 6 year deal for $147M. Let's just throw out the fact that he would have chosen the Dodgers over the Twins anyway for a second. Had we signed Greinke and Kept Span, and not signed KC. 2013 - Greinke 3.9 WAR + Span 2.2 WAR - KC's 1.6 WAR = 4.5. Add 4.5 wins to the 63 we had in 2013 and you have 67.5 wins. 2014 - Grinke 4.3 WAR + Span 3.6 WAR - KC's WAR = .2 = 7.7 We won 70 games, now you have a 77 win team. Span is sitting in his last year of his deal. He is 31 and probably is looking at 12-13M a year on a multi year deal to keep him here. Greinke is 31.5 and owed $100M over the next four years. And people are complaining that we are not rebuilding.
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I find this WAR analysis flawed. For one, we gave up 3 years of a guy we likely knew would have a WAR near 9. We did so because that was Span's cap on WAR with the Twins. We were not going to be good during that stretch anyway. Meyer on the other hand. Had he turned out, we would have had him under control during his prime for six years. So he would only need to average 1.5 WAR per season for that deal to be a wash. Everyone would agree that his upside even to this day is more than 9 career WAR. Now, if he turned out to be a 4-5 WAR a season pitcher, under control for 6 years? We would get 24-30 WAR and pay about $30M for it. With the potential to trade him at the end of that deal and get more prospects back. To point #3. You need arms to compete. You just do and it is the most expensive thing to acquire. A team like the Twins will never be players on the FA market. So we need to stockpile as many Meyers, May's, Berrios, and Kohl Stewart's and hope half of them turn out.
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I have openly stated I don't think TR is the guy that should lead our team. But I also believe a few other things, that when I bring up people say I am defending him. -Most draft picks fail. It is comical to go back at past drafts, even 10 years ago and not even remember 2/3 of the guys taken in the first round. -Most free agent signings fail as well. By definition you are paying top dollar. In most cases the best you can say 3-4 years later is that you sort of got your moneys worth. Almost all larger deals for the best 20 free agent deals are not worth it at the end of the day -I think the Twins ownership also plays a huge role here. I think in the 2010 to 2011 transition they said the themselves, we can lose 95 games with a $80M payroll just as easy as we can with a $110M payroll and with the stadium being so new, they new they would sell out. And I think from year to year their priorities change from take payroll down, to lets field a better team, to we need to sign a starting pitcher or there and here is your budget. This all leads to the fans wondering what the direction is. Why are we not rebuilding, etc. My personal opinion, like most 2nd generation businesses, they fail for a myriad of reasons. These guys have never ran a billion dollar business by themselves. Never had their mortgage and grociery money on the line. -I completley agree with people that say we should have been like the Marlins or Astros regarding a rebuild. I just think that given the owners and the stadium, TR never had that ability. Personally, I think he would have preferred it that way.
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Agree bird. You have an 11 facing a 6, you double. You made a good decision and will make the same one in the future regardless of the outcome.
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This is a fine line here regarding the gm. He is somehow a better gm is joe Nathan does not blow two games against the Yankees? As the gm, all you can do is go out and get talent, as he did with Nathan. He was one of the best closers in the game for a long time but he choked.
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On what time frame are you referring to here? Over the last 2-3 years or his complete tenure? Because if you go back from his tenure, I bet his moves are better than a majority of his peers over that time stretch. Much like a successful hitter fails 7 out of 10 times, most draft picks and free agent signings don't pan out. I also think that during 2006-2012 or so, we chose to let players leave via free agency and receive draft picks. The gamble that guys like Berrios (comp pick for Cuddy) are going to outperform the trade targets over time. I have questions about him moving forward and staying up to date in a changing game. But his track record is a pretty good one.
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When we are not going to be competitive for at least two or three years, moving a guy for a top prospect and clearing a spot for a prospect to see what you have is a great move in my eyes. Especially since Span was going to be past his prime when we were going to be good again and a vast majority of his trade value was his contract. When you take a step back, we were completely devoid of power, upside arms and the Twins will never, ever sign one on the free agent market. So this deal, to acquire one of the best 30 prospects coming off a great year in high A was a fantastic move. These are the types of arms you need to compete. The Span for Meyer deal was a typical rebuilding move that most on these boards skewer Ryan for not doing. I wish we had made more of these deals. Now, fast forward a year and Hicks falls completely on his face, I agree. We needed to move on, bring in MLB talent and bring him back to AAA and work his way back up. But those are separate issues
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I don't like the logic that if Meyer fails, it was a bad trade. The market for centerfielders was hot and we are still not good and Denard is 31 (and we would likely not have extended him past his contract). So you attempt and add a guy via trade that you can't get on the open market (ace upside). Meyer was a top 30-40 prospect I want my GM making this deal all day long. If he does it five times you get an ace under control 2-3 times. That is worth it.
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I have reservations about Terry in this era. He openly questions defensive metrics and what we see on the field is just horrible defense night in and night out. An additional error and/or 1-4 plays that could have been made and weren't. Good teams win 90 games and bad teams win 66-70, so we are only talking about a 20-24 game difference. Those plays matter. What will be telling to me is how long it takes for two of Rosario, Buxton, or Hicks (if he continues to hit) to be inserted in the OF. This desperately needs to happen. I think the Twins can be criticized left and right for things we did or did not do over the last four years. But one thing that never really gets discussed is luck. You have at least four things that have happened in the last year. Nolasco to me is clearly hurt, we give up 18 fewer runs last year if he was just at his career average. He was counted on and supposed to be healthy. Ervin was counted on, most people were supportive of this deal. And to have your best two prospects knocking on the door and basically miss the entire season, plus Rosario with the 50 games. Last year could have been much better at least.
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I completely agree. But they love breaking camp with veterans and hold their breathe that we are in this thing in July. That just hasn't happened.
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Yeah, hopefully more outings like this will convert the people that think he should be up right now. He is not ready for prime time.
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Agree on defcon level. I mean all the guy has to do is throw the ball over the plate and he is promoted and he is completely incapable of doing that. He had 5 BB's in 5 or so ST innings. Now he has 11 BB's in 8.2 innings I think at AAA. And he is pitching against lineups that other guys are mowing down Rogers 7 scoreless innings. 6 H, 2BB. 6 K. Dean. 6 IP, 1 ER. 8 k's. Wheeler has a 2.70 ERA
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I meant only new of prospects that reach this year
