nytwinsfan

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
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Today the Twins had a 7:05 PM game hosting the Boston Red Sox. At 1PM the Twins' AAA and AA teams hosted the equivalent of the Orioles'. I spent the afternoon watching the Twins AA team, before moved to Hammond Stadium in the evening for the nightcap.
 
I was delighted to see that Tyler Jay was the starter for the AA game. Jay was ranked as the Twins' number 2 prospect in my off-season 2016 rankings and I have to say that he proved me happy with that ranking. He pitched for a full 4 innings and featured 4 pitches: a 93-94 mph FB that topped at 96, an 85-86 mph slider, an 81-83 mph change up and a 77-80 mph curve. This is a very effective pitch mix for him. He has a short arm delivery and hides the ball well. He commands all pitches well and his fastball is definitely his out pitch; sets it up beautifully with the slider and the change up. He throws his curve low and outside the strike zone to make hitters chase it; and they do. At this level. One of the questions about Jay has been the ability to be a started as far as endurance goes. Today he was not frugal with his pitches, which is something that he would have to learn as he matures as a professional.
 
His Catcher was 25 year old Joe Maloney who the Twins signed as a minor league free agent after an MVP season in the Canadian-American Association Independent League Rockland Boulders. Maloney's problem is that he is not a very good catcher and he showed that today, having a throw sail over the head of the second baseman on a steal attempt and two passed balls. The second passed ball bounced off Maloney's glove to the home plate umpire's hand to his cup, incapacitating the umpire. Twins' legend Tom Kelly had to call balls and strikes behind the pitcher for the next half inning before a replacement umpire relieved him:
 

 
Another new minor league free agent on display today was Keury De La Cruz. The 24 year old outfielder has one of the longest swings I have seen with an extremely violent back swing. After his first PA, I mumbled that someone will get hurt here, and in the 5th inning, it happened to get the Baltimore catcher's head with that backswing. Some serious coaching needs to happen here. De La Cruz provided a bit of a comic relief sliding feet first about 2 feet to the left of where a routine fly ball fell in the second inning. Will not be surprised in the Twins bite the bullet and cut him soon.
 
The Twins signed 27 year old RHP Omar Belcomo from the American Association Independent League where he last played for the Wichita Lugnuts, to make 3 starts for the Fort Myers Miracle at the end of their season. Belcomo last played affiliated ball in 2011 for the Tampa Bay Rays single A team at Bowling Green. He is an interesting player to keep an eye on, as he is a poor man's Sam Deduno. He has two pitches: A fastball that goes from 86 to 91, which he can absolutely not command and goes all over the place, including the head of a Baltimore hitter in his second inning of work. His second pitch is a 77-81 mph change up that actually is an above average to a plus pitch, and a pitch that he seems to be able to control.
 
Raul Fernandez was another of the minor league free agents the Twins signed last off-season. The 25 year old RHP Dominican was converted from Catcher to Pitcher by the Rockies after his first DSL season and spent last season in the White Sox' AA team. Long arm motion with 92-93 mph FB with late pop, an 88 mph cutter/2-seamer and a low 80s change up. Very good ability to mix them and throw them all for strikes and good command. He seemed to confuse batters.
 
Brian Gilbert seems to get his fastball up a couple ticks, consistently hitting 94 and 95 with a couple of 96 mph. He complemented that with an 85-86 mph slider. Seemed to be effectively wild, but it is the start of the Spring Training. Just 23, drafted by the Twins in the 7th round in 2013; keep your eye open for him.
 
Yorman Landa was the last pitcher for the AA Twins, fresh from the MLB side of Spring Training. I last saw him pitch a couple seasons ago and he is a different pitcher. He supplemented his excellent high 80s low 90s 2-seamer with a 4-seamer that sit at 93-95 and popped up to 96, but is straight with inconsistent command and control. Straight FBs at 95 and 96 will get hit hard by good AA hitters and that is what happened to him today. His 78-81 mph curve was good. He did not throw a change up today. Definite potential there, but he needs work.
 
Something to keep in mind: Today watching the Twins' AA pitchers was a Texas Rangers' (who train in AZ) scout. Not sure that anything is going on, but he was there.
 
Fast forward a few hrs to the Twins' MLB game at Hammond Stadium against the Red Sox.
 
Kyle Gibson was the starter, and he had things really working for him, including his best pitch, a slider, purely made of filth, dancing at 84-86 mph and striking out Red Sox who were either looking at it with open eyes or swinging and missing wildly. That today was a FranKKKKKKKKKKKKKie Liriano slider in his prime, Ladies and Gentlemen. Four seamer 92-95, two seamer high 80s, and a changeup at 79-81 was the rest of Gibson's repertoire tonight. Gibson was in mid-season form.
 
Another player who was in mid-season form was Miguel Sano, who punished a Bucholtz breaking ball deeply off the Centerfield wall for a double, and even more importantly made a solid catch in RF and threw a pea that would had thrown the tagging runner out at third if Trevor Plouffe did not bobble the ball.
 
Back to pitching. One of the greatest mysteries this spring has been Glen Perkins' velocity, so I charted all of his pitches. Here they are:
 
FB 90, FB 89, FB 91, FB 86, FB 89, SL 78, FB 91, FB 88, SL 78, SL 79, SL 81, FL 89, FB 89, FB 90, SL 81, FB 89.
 
86-91 mph FB and 78-81 mph SL. This is a good 5-6 mph off where Perkins need to be to be effective. Nevertheless this should be raising more Red Flags to the Twins' brass than there are outside the Kremlin...
 
Have a few more notes from today, but for the sake of brevity, I will include them in one of the future writeups

Wednesday's storms brought sunny skies, cool temps (low 60's) and strong winds to Ft. Myers.
Got to Hammond a little later than usual (bad traffic) and pitchers were already into bullpen
sessions. The first 5 pitchers I watched were Hughes, May, O'Rourke, Abad, and a lefty Pat
Dean. As in other years Hughes' control is terrific and Abad is a big lefty, 6-1, 220 lbs. Neil
Allen, Eddie G., and Latroy Hawkins were behind the mounds watching. The next 5 were
Gibson, Jepsen, Brandon Kintzler (AAA Brewers) and 2 leftys Logan Darnell, and Mason
Melotakis. Jepsen stopped a few times to talk with Eddie and asked his catcher about his
pitches (perhaps working on a new pitch).
I headed to the main field where the catchers were batting. Brunansky was watching Suzuki
closely and talking with him in between rounds. Suzuki and J.R. Murphy are always together,
talking, even when they are in the outfield shagging.
I saw Dozier for the first time (he spent a long time signing autographs and taking pictures with
fans). He is not a very big guy; it's amazing how much power he has.
It's interesting to see how many fans are here with back packs and duffle bags full of things that
they want players to sign. A lot of the coaches signed today (they usually don"t). Joe Mauer
was with Dozier and spent a lot of time signing, also. I didn't see it, but they said Mauer was
batting with sunglasses on, but wasn't too impressive. It was cloudy on Tuesday and he didn't
wear any.
A guy came up to me and asked if Rod Carew was there yet. I said that Oliva had said,he wouldn't be coming for a couple of days. The guy said he was a big Carew fan and I noticed he was wearing a faded Carew jersey. So naturally I had to tell him my Carew bunting lesson
story. He loved it! Later,

With camp officially starting in just a couple of days, more and more players are arriving (Milone, Rosario, Benson just to name a few) thus more and more is going on in the backfields. Infielders/Pitchers could be seen fielding grounders on the half field while pitchers were throwing under Hammond Stadium, this day however I was not pulling myself away from the Sano and Arcia outfield drills and workouts on Field Four. It was a definitely a sight to see, defensive outfield drills followed by batting practice, a little over three hours condensed into less than 20 minutes of videos.
The two slugging outfielders, Arcia and Sano, took to the field around 9am and started off with just some simple long tossing. From 120 feet out Miggy shows off a strong accurate arm but as Arcia keeps backing up and increasing their distance, Sano starts to break out the crow hop early to get the ball to Arcia.
Afterwards, Coach Lepel started rolling balls to the outfielders and having them throw it back to the cutoff man at second. It’s one of the more basic fundamentals that all outfielders know how to do to prevent a hitter from taking an extrabase. From the get go Sano was having obvious difficulties especially when compared to Arcia. Miggy was repeatedly charging and throwing as if he was a third baseman. It got to the point where Coach Lepel called the outfielders in to talk to Sano about his technique and even Arcia gave some advice. They returned to the field, where it was solely Sano working over and over again on the technique until he started showing improvement.
The next drill up was a little more challenging in a roller to the glove side then spin and throw to hit the cutoff man. In this task Miguel performed better which I take as he has done it before as an infielder. Next up flyball over the shoulder, spin and throw.
Then Lepel started throwing flyballs straight on with the two throwing to the cutoff man. Once again a basic fundamental that outfielders know how to do: position yourself with forward motion on a catch. Again Sano had issues often catching the ball behind him. Lastly, Sano, Arcia, and Jorge Fernandez took flyballs from a jugs machine in rightfield with the wind blowing in and gusts of 30 mph. In Leftfield, Eddie Rosario, Adam Brett Walker, and Travis Harrison. In Centerfield, Joe Benson, Tyree Davis, Darin Mastroianni.
 

Other Sano notes: there were numerous times Sano could be see massaging and stretching his throwing arm and was asked a few times by Lepel if he was okay. Sano likes to hit, I counted three times in the hour plus of defensive drills where he asked Lepel when are we hitting. Smartly, Lepel used it as a carrot with Baki (sp?) telling him after this drill, nope after this drill. As anyone can see Sano has ALOT to still LEARN to be ready for the outfield on Opening Day. So this puts to rest that Miguel has been practicing his outfield drills this offseason.
 

Finally, it was Sano’s favorite time, hitting in the cage where he did not disappoint. Lifting a few balls but never clearing the fences with the strong wind. Sano likes to hit so much, he jumped Rosario in the batting order. Talk about a murder’s row of a batting practice lineup: Arcia, Sano, Park, Rosario followed by AB Walker, Harrsion, Buck Britton, Mastroianni. Even with all those power bats, Byung Ho Park was the only one to lift a ball through the 30mph gusts blowing in from RF to take it out of the park.
Notes on Arcia, he looked good in the field and if I hadn’t seen him prior I’d think it was more due to fielding with the extremely raw Sano but Oswaldo has worked hard on his defensive game. Namely that first step and working on his reads. On of my favorite things to watch is while he shags in BP, he’s actually putting forth effort runnings routes. In one instance, a flyball off Britton’s bat, Arcia blazed past Sano and caught the would be gapper.
 

 

 

The Minnesota Twins made a flurry of moves over the past few days that have left fans and media types buzzing with anticipation not only for the 2016 season, but also the rest of this offseason. It’s not even Thanksgiving yet, and the Twins have already made or have the wheels in motion on three moves that had direct 40-man and even 25-man roster implications.
 
The trade to move Chris Herrmann to the Diamondbacks was mostly borne out of a necessity to clear roster space. Even with catcher Eric Fryer outrighted off the 40-man roster at the end of the season, the odds that Herrmann would stick through the winter with the Twins were slim. The Twins flipped him to Arizona and got a toolsy, old-for-his level outfielder in Daniel Palka, who might remind some of Adam Brett Walker with his big-time power and propensity for the strikeout. Both of those characteristics are a bit more tempered with Palka, though he did post the California League’s only 20-20 season in 2015 with 29 home runs and 24 stolen bases. Again, he was old for the level — just a half year above the average age of other High-A contemporaries according to Baseball Reference — and might not have a long-term position, but it’s still an ample return for the less-than-stellar game tape Herrmann had put up in parts of four seasons with the big league club.
 
The other two moves were surprising. The Twins won the bidding for Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park, a 29-year-old masher who has hit 105 home runs over the past two seasons in the KBO. For reference, former Twins left-hander Andrew Albers went to the KBO immediately after the Twins took him off the roster, and NL Rookie of the Year finalist Jung Ho Kang of the Pirates was a nine-year veteran of the KBO before he came over to the big leagues. Kang and Park were teammates with the Nexen Heroes from 2011 to 2014. Kang was coming off an incredible season with nearly a 1.200 OPS with the Heroes when he made the defection a year ago and put together a solid .287/.355/.461 season for Pittsburgh this year as a 28 year old.
 
It sounds as though Park might be seeking a four-year deal perhaps in excess of $20 million, but that seems like a reasonable cost and risk for a player who brings big-time power potential to the table. Park has posted OPS figures north of 1.000 the last three years, with tons of swing-and-miss in his game as well as walks to go with the obvious power. Speed doesn’t appear to be a part of his game, and defensively the folks at Baseball America suggested he was a 55 defensive first baseman (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and perhaps a 40 left fielder. We’ll get into this a more in a bit, but it’ll be interesting to see how he’s handled on that side of the game.
 
The other stunning move was the club shipping Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy. Hicks had a breakthrough in 2015, hitting .256/.323/.398 while showing his loud tools far more frequently than he ever did in his first two seasons. For as good as he looked at times, Hicks’ breakout was still mostly confined to one month — a 1.001 OPS in July — and still primarily from the right side of the plate. In other words, the short side of what would typically be a platoon guy. Yankee Stadium might play up his left-handed swing a bit, and the tools are still here for a star — he’s still younger than when Carlos Gomez broke out with the Brewers, for instance — but the Twins saw a need and struck by getting Murphy. Murphy is just 24, and is late to the game as a catcher who has seen his abilities behind the plate get better each season. Various reports suggest he’s adequate defensively right now, with a pretty good arm and framing and perhaps a need to improve his blocking. He should still in time be able to grade out as slightly above average, and he makes enough contact to be a decent hitter. There isn’t a ton of power — more against lefties than righties — but against same-sided pitchers he did manage to show a better ability to draw walks and hit for average. It’s all in small sample sizes anyway, so it’s hard to really get a read on what he’d look like in, say, 400 plate appearances. It’s all for good reason, too, as the Yankees have Brian McCann ahead of him and Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez behind him. As ESPN’s Keith Law said, it was a good old-fashioned deal that worked for both sides. The Yankees took
a chance on potential, while the Twins went the safer route with a stronger floor. Sound familiar?
 
With all these wheels in motion, there are countless storylines that are affected on the existing team. Let’s take a look at each player (possibly) affected, and what it may mean:
 
Kurt Suzuki – Clearly Suzuki is going to see a reduction in his workload, and by the end of the year could be a strict backup if things go perfectly for Murphy. Ultimately, all that really matters is that Suzuki won’t reach the 485 plate appearances needed for his $6 million option in 2017 to vest. It wasn’t going to anyway; with just Fryer and Herrmann behind him Suzuki still got just 479 plate appearances in 2015.
 
Joe Mauer – The sun could be setting on Mauer as a full-time regular, barring a Justin Morneau-style resurrection. With playing time needed for Park and the uncertain futures of a couple other corner-type players, Mauer could see a reduced role in 2016. Then again, if he continues to be one of the best on the team at getting on base, it’s certainly possible he’ll get another 500-plus plate appearances.
 
Miguel Sano – Just how serious are the Twins about Sano playing outfield? That’s the next most important domino to fall, and maybe the club doesn’t even know the answer yet. Could it possibly just be posturing for….
 
Trevor Plouffe – …a possible Plouffe trade? It’s unclear how much public perception really matters in trade talks, but if the Twins are steadfast in their belief that Sano can handle an outfield corner and that they’ll keep Plouffe well into his arbitration years, well, that’s what they want other teams to believe, too. There’ll be no reason at all to dip into the free agent market for an outfielder if the Twins keep that configuration, though they’d have to be awfully sure Sano can handle the outfield, even if it’s just until the team ultimately moves or moves on from Plouffe, who is eligible for free agency after 2017. Plouffe’s evolution as a solid hitter with big power for the position, as well as his continued development defensively has made this a good problem for the Twins.
 
Eddie Rosario – The only real dilemma for Rosario is where he’ll play. He could literally play any of the three outfield positions, with center seeming to be the least talked about and least likely. Still, most people I’ve talked to believe he could handle it, and it’s clear he’s got the arm to play just about anywhere.
 
Byron Buxton – The pervasive belief from national types is that the Hicks trade opens up center field for Buxton, but the Twins most likely won’t make the same mistake twice. That is, handing the job to a raw but talented youngster who is in over his head. He’ll have ample opportunity to take the job in spring training, but if he’s in Rochester in early April, it wouldn’t be a stunner.
 
Max Kepler – Local sources believe that the club is in love with Kepler’s future, and Law said in an exclusive chat on Thursday that he views the German as having star potential. The odds of him cracking the opening day roster seem remote at this juncture — mostly due to how recently all of his development and skills have come together — but there’s a real chance that his coming of age made the Twins more comfortable with a deal including Hicks.
 
Oswaldo Arcia – Arcia’s sort of a forgotten man, though it’s for good reason given his defensive inadequacies and the fact that he hit sub-.200 while in Rochester for the bulk of the 2015 season. He doesn’t appear to be long for the organization one way or the other — keep in mind he’s out of options this spring — but if he’s starting in right field on opening day, it wouldn’t be a complete stunner. Though that probably means Plouffe was traded and Sano is at third base. Arcia could make it as a reserve outfielder, too, with multiple options who can play center already on the roster.
 
Danny Santana – Santana will be on the big league roster one way or the other as he’s also out of options, but there’s an outside chance he too could start on opening day in center field. After an abysmal 2015 season, it’ll be on Santana to prove he has a big league future, regardless of if it’s as a super utility or if he can settle into one position. Chances are if it’s the latter, it’s in another organization.
 
Kennys Vargas – These offseason moves ultimately feel like the kiss of death for Vargas’ big league prospects as a member of the Twins. After a successful cup of coffee in 2014, Vargas had a very Santana-like 2015, and unlike Danny carries absolutely no value in the field. An enterprising team with a hole at DH might give the Twins a ring — Tampa Bay makes a lot of sense here — but unless he can fix holes in his swing and discipline, he’ll be an all-or-nothing pinch hitting option. There’s still potential here, though; he’ll be 25 for nearly the entire 2016 season.
 
Josmil Pinto – Pinto is just one of three ‘catchers’ on the 40-man roster, and it’s unclear if he’s even viewed as a catcher anymore anyway. After returning from concussion issues in late August, Pinto didn’t get back behind the plate with the Red Wings and hit just .217/.288/.283 in 15 games before the Twins sent him home for the winter. If memory serves he too is out of options in 2016, and with no position flexibility and no room at catcher as the roster currently stands, he’s firmly in limbo as far as the Twins are concerned. The bat has flashed potential at times, but there’s really no hope of him playing anywhere but DH or first base if he can’t catch, and he probably doesn’t have enough juice in the stick to do that on a regular basis. He could make the Twins as a bench bat, but it just doesn’t seem too terribly likely right now.
 
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Just a few weeks ago, the Twins 2015 postseason hopes looked all but lost. In a season in which expectations had already been so vastly exceeded, it appeared that once again, September would be nothing more than a proving ground for 2016. Now on the back of another nice run, Paul Molitor's squad enters September with something to play for. With a perfect storm approaching, Minnesota has the chance to sink or swim.
 
Heading into the final full month of the season, Minnesota finds themselves looking up at only the Texas Rangers. With both the Yankees and Blue Jays holding down either the AL East or top Wild Card spot, it will be Texas that Minnesota will chase. Separated a few games ahead of the Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota can worry about themselves.
 
Looking at the final month of the season, the Twins play plenty of familiar foes. Following the first weekend in September, the Twins will play only AL Central teams the rest of the way (outside of a four game homestand against the Angels). In those 22 games, only six of them come against the division leading Kansas City Royals. For further context, that means the Twins will play 16 games against sub .500 teams the rest of the way.
 
Minnesota has played the AL East the toughest this season (going 19-14), while nearly splitting with divisional foes (26-25). Despite holding down the second spot in the division, the Twins will face plenty of tough pitching matchups the rest of the way. Kluber, Sale, and what might be an improved Verlander looming, earning a playoff berth will be a must.
However, the Twins also have a few trump cards at their disposal this September. Instead of looking to give playing time to those who have paid their due, Molitor and Terry Ryan stand to benefit their big league club by calling up true talent. It's safe to say players such as Kennys Vargas, Jose Berrios, and even Max Kepler have earned their way onto the big league roster. Knowing that each of them could equate to key wins helps that fact to carry even more weight.
 
Despite being a year ahead of schedule, the Twins have parlayed getting hot again at the right time, with the ability to bolster their roster for the home stretch. Knowing what teams lie ahead, and their level of talent, Minnesota has tipped the scales in their favor. Whether or not they make it to the playoffs remains unseen, but Paul Molitor has everything point the right direction at the most opportune time.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The Twins' four-game sweep of the Orioles has kept them very much alive in the 2015 wild card chase. On Tuesday, they start a big three-game series with another contender in the Tampa Bay Rays. A series win would put two games between the Twins and Rays and keep the Twins within a couple games, at worst, of the final wild card spot.
 
This comes after a big fall in the first three weeks of August. It honestly looked like Terry Ryan had just given up on the 2015 season. There are some things to note that are positive going forward however.
 
1. Miguel Sano is very good.
2. Byron Buxton is up with the Twins and he should start to come around (though a move to the bottom of the order would seem justified).
3. Aaron Hicks will be back soon. This will mean a full starting lineup for the *first time all season.*
4. Kennys Vargas looks like a key roster piece to be added soon.
5. The bullpen--which was becoming a full-blown disaster--could re-emerge with some new faces and the return to form of older reliables. There are six guys involved here. Glen Perkins and Casey Fien returning to their "true" selves is one part. Trevor May's dominance in his 2015 role as a setup man is another. Kevin Jepsen being a Casey Fein clone/RH specialist is another. Finally, the proper use of Ryan O'Rourke and newly acquired Neal Cotts against lefties is the last piece. I don't care about JR Graham or Brian Duensing. Hopefully, both of them will "get injured" for the playoffs.
6. Three out of five starters pitching well in any five-game stretch isn't bad. We won't know who they are going to be ahead of time, but they can get this done.
 
There are remaining things to question: Are the Twins going to commit to 11 pitchers in the playoffs instead of 12? Will Josmil Pinto return to get some at bats this September? What about Danny Santana? Will we get to see Max Kepler and/or Jose Berrios?
 
It's been a sudden roller coaster ride, but the Twins have a chance to right this ship. The Yankees, Rangers, and Angels are in the way, and the Twins will need to pass two of them, but it can happen, obviously. Odds are that one of those three is going to falter anyway (my money is on the Rangers there). I still have hope for the playoffs this year.

As baseball evolves in time, one thing will always remain, and that is the fact that the sport is a thinking man's game. Regardless of what is going on in front of you, there's numerous outcomes to consider in any given instance prior to them taking place. A large portion (let's call it 90%) of the game remains simple at its core on the field, but that emerging 10% can often being explained by statistical analysis.
 
Sabermetrics aren't for everyone, but there's no doubt they are for anyone. In a numbers driven sport, it's probably time for a wider variety of numbers to be given their due.
 
Full disclosure, I don't consider myself a sabermetrics diehard. I understand their place, value, and use. I include them and credit certain values in my writing, and I believe they help to explain some of what your eye already sees on the field. I don't believe they are a be all, end all. They have a place, and far too often aren't given that.
Recently, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press caught up with Twins catcher Kurt Suzuki in the name of sabermetrics. Suzuki is the poster child for such a discussion. He's roughly a replacement level catcher, and finding any and every advantage to improve his game and worth should be his constant goal.
 
In his piece, Berardino asks Suzuki two questions that get somewhat appalling responses. Here is what was said:
 
On what stats he likes: “Obviously the WHIP for the pitchers. I don’t know what the other stuff is. (Fielding Independent Pitching), I don’t know what that means. For hitters, I like the OPS. I think OPS is better than average. That has a lot to do with it.”
 
On zero being replacement level: “I find that hard to believe. If you take a big-league guy and then you go get some guy from Double-A, you’re telling me that? Unless it’s a bench player, I don’t see that.”
 
Addressing question one, Zuk keeps it simple. WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) is a valuable takeaway. It's pretty simply logic to understand that putting guys on base (no matter how it happens) isn't beneficial to a pitcher. What WHIP doesn't explain is what Suzuki decides to ignore.
 
FIP (fielding independent pitching) has become one of the most important pitching numbers over the past couple of seasons. In understanding FIP, a pitcher is able to assess their performance in relation to being a sum of total parts. Knowing there are eight defenders playing into what happens on any given batted ball, a pitcher's effectiveness is quantified in relation to his ERA. FIP helps to tell a deeper story, whether or not hits are warranted, or a by-product of a bigger issue. Once again highlighting that there is no one number that does complete justice.
 
Again staying in a relative comfort zone, Suzuki looks at OPS (like WHIP, OPS would not be considered a traditional sabermetric stat). OPS (on-base plus slugging) has gained relevance in recent years because of what it says about a batter. As seen in his teammate Brian Dozier, Suzuki understands that average alone is not a good measure of a player's value.
 
Batting average is the quantifiable sum, but it's on-base percentage and slugging percentage that win games. Dozier for example has a paltry .248 AVG, but his .318 OBP and .495 SLG set him apart. He walks a considerable amount (though less than his career average, which is another issue altogether), and he finds ways to give the Twins runners. When he is hitting the ball, he also finds ways to snag extra bases, which drive his slugging percentage way up. A batter getting on base, and being further on the base paths is no doubt more valuable than a consistent singles hitter.
 
The second question Suzuki addresses is just somewhat indicative of the problem as a whole. Sabermetrics are definitely not for everyone, but they are very much for anyone. Suzuki has decided to look past a level of understanding because he has chosen to discredit the metrics. Whether that's because they aren't kind to him, or for some other reason, remains unsolved.
 
Replacement level being zero in and of itself should be a relatively easy numerical,value to grasp. If WAR (wins above replacement) calculates a positive or negative value, then 0 would serve as the statistical baseline. Plus or minus that number would then define a player's ability.
 
Defining replacement level is somewhat difficult, but FanGraphs states: "One who costs no marginal resources to acquire. This is the type of player who would fill in for the starter in case of injuries, slumps, alien abductions, etc." At it's core, that definition is relatively self-explanatory. Working as an MLB player to increase your value, targeting areas of concern would no doubt be a good place to start. If WAR is a sum of all parts, understanding the underlying sabermetrics that make up the whole would be a good plan of action.
 
At the end of the day, any amount of numbers can get to a point where the game becomes a chess match inundated by numerical values. At its core though, baseball is a chess match, and knowing how to utilize the numbers in your favor is something that no doubt is the difference in certain key situations.
 
Sabermetrics aren't for everyone, but they are for anyone and should be comprehended by those looking to utilize their utmost value.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

It's the first week of August, the Twins have fallen out of a Wild Card spot, and they remain just one game over .500. Considering how the year started, that's a less than ideal scenario, but knowing how it was projected to end, they find themselves in a good spot. What's better is that with the way the final two months appear to be shaping up, there's even more reason to anticipate 2016.
With plenty of baseball left, there's not much reason to write off the Twins. Sure, they aren't going to make the playoffs, but there's competitive and meaningful baseball taking place at Target Field in August and September, that's huge. Going forward though, it's the opportunities provided to manager Paul Molitor over the final two months that will bolster the Twins in 2016.
 
I have been a championing the fact that Aaron Hicks has been ready for quite a while. The cornerstone of that argument has been the path he has recently been on. After being promoted too early from Double-A due to a stellar spring training a few years ago, it was his time in Double and Triple-A to end last year that showed he was a new player. Getting his feet wet slowly helped immensely, and that's where the Twins find themselves at once again.
Miguel Sano has already spent over 25 games with the big league club. He's has held his own slashing .278/.411/.522 with five home runs and 12 extra base hits. Going forward, the next couple of months will be big for Sano to hit the ground running in 2016. Hitters have failed to get on ahead of him of late, allowing opposing pitchers to throw him offspeed stuff away and out of the zone. Sano has shown good plate discipline (38/21 K/BB), but being able to have more opportunities to swing away will only further his development. The time at the big league level will no doubt have Sano entering 2016 brimming with confidence.
 
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Byron Buxton has taken his lumps with the Twins. He played just 11 games before hitting the DL with a thumb injury. In those games, he slashed .189/.231/.270. Buxton is being afforded a great opportunity however. With an upcoming rehab stint scheduled to take place at Triple-A Rochester, he will face pitchers more able to "pitch" and spin balls, than those at Double-A capable of blowing it by hitters. Likely spending September with the Twins, Buxton will then be able to work through some struggles to better prepare for the upcoming season.
Then there's the benefit that comes with expanded rosters. At the end of August, Minnesota can utilize up to 40 roster spots, and while they won't be bringing that many players up, there's a few worthy inclusions.
 
It would stand to reason that both Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia could be given another chance to end the season. Unlike the path Aaron Hicks took though in which he produced following a demotion in 2014, neither Vargas nor Arcia has been any good. Vargas is slashing .240/.363/.423 at Double-A Chattanooga. Arcia had a nice run of eight home runs, but owns a .232/.291/.420 slash line with 59 K and just 15 walks.
More importantly in September will be the call ups that expect to figure prominently into the 2016 plans. With next season being the opening of the window in the "go for it" timespan, getting key cogs feet wet would make a lot of sense. Included amongst that group would almost have to be Jose Berrios and Max Kepler. Had Zack Jones, Nick Burdi, and Jake Reed not struggled this season, they may be included as well.
 
Berrios has strung together a handful of nice starts at Triple-A and should be considered for the rotation in 2016. He owns a 2.00 ERA across his last 4 starts (27.0 IP) and should have a couple more under his belt before the end of August. A cup of coffee in the form of a spot start would make a ton of sense.
With the outfield no doubt going to be shuffled in 2016 (Torii Hunter moving to a part time role and the likely spot cleared by Shane Robinson being a free agent), there's going to be a competition for final spots. Max Kepler has batted .330/.412/.540 in 82 games for Double-A Chattanooga and is clearly ready for his next challenge. There would be no better way to get him geared up for the MLB level than to include him in games at the end of this season. Kepler looks the part, and allowing him to prove it could be beneficial.
 
Minnesota could also look at some lesser relief options. Guys like Logan Darnell, Michael Tonkin, Mark Hamburger, and A.J. Achter could all find their way to the big leagues. Each of them has pitched well for the most part in 2015, and could give the Twins some extended evaluation time at the big league level should they appear in September.
At the end of the year, Minnesota looks poised to finish right where they ought to be. They will be somewhere around second or third in the division, and within a few games either way of the .500 mark. Sure, that's a far cry from how things started, but it's a significant improvement and exactly how you take the next step forward. Pushing forward players that could prove instrumental in a year is something the Twins have the opportunity to do, so the next two months still hold plenty of weight.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

As the summer draws on and the fall draws near, lots of changes shape the Major League baseball landscape. There's the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and then the August waiver period. There's divisional races, and then there' s September call ups. Despite the Twins strong start, the most exciting period of 2015 may be that call up window, and in part, because of a Twins prospect demanding your attention.
Sure, Jose Berrios is having a good year, Nick Gordon is trending up, and Byron Buxton should be back in the fold. In September though, it should be all about a 22 year old from Germany. Signed as an international free agent, Max Kepler has been playing in the Twins organization since he was 17 years old. He's been talked up almost equally as long.
 
Maybe not the uber-prospect that fellow international signee Miguel Sano was, Kepler has held his own. After struggling with injury issues early on in his professional career, it's really been the last two seasons that Kepler has put it together.
 
Spending the entirety of 2014 with High-A Fort Myers, Kepler played in a career high 102 games. In that action, he slashed .264/.333/.393 with 20 doubles, six triples, five home runs and 59 RBI. Any way you cut it, the Twins had to be pleased. As respectable as 2014 was though, it's been 2015 where Kepler has really put his stamp on the organization.
Minnesota decided to allow Kepler to get his feet wet in a few games (six to be exact) near the spring training complex in Fort Myers. Since being shipped off to Double-A Chattanooga, he has been also systems go though. Owning a .331/.414/.529 slash line on the season, it's even more impressive to see how he's hit lately. Sine June 11, Kepler has batted .381/.493/.593 while playing in 33 games and being honored with a selection for the Major League Baseball Future's Game in Cincinnati.
 
On the year, Kepler has substantiated his success to the tune of 92 hits, 25 doubles, nine triples, four home runs, 44 runs batted in, and a near even 42/39 K/BB ratio. He's split time almost evenly playing 37 games at first base, while being positioned in the outfield 34 times (most often in right). Kepler has been sure with the glove making just two errors in 84 outfield chances as well as two errors in 317 chances at first base.
 
When looking through the farm system as a whole, and the Twins are well noted as having one of the best in the bigs, you'd be hard pressed to find a more intriguing offensive talent. As the production continues to toe the line of otherworldly, Kepler continues to go about his business and make it look routine.
Minnesota no doubt has it's eyes set on which prospects will be considered for a September cup of coffee, and it's hard to believe Kepler wouldn't be first in line. Already a 40 man roster inclusion, Kepler has all the makings of the ability to push for an opening day spot in 2016. If he continues the run he's currently on, holding him down is something the Twins will find themselves hard pressed to do.
As the wave of players like Sano, Buxton, and Berrios make their way to Target Field, don't make the foolish mistake of forgetting to include the German. Max Kepler appears to be the real deal and he should be getting a shot to prove it sooner rather than later.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

There isn’t a more polarizing figure on the Minneapolis sports landscape than Joe Mauer. It’s not hard to see, either. For instance, have a look at social media when Mauer gets a day off — any day off — and how the average fan reacts to it. Never mind the fact that Mauer came into Wednesday tied with Brian Dozier for the most games played on the team.
 
One certainly can’t fault the average fan for suggesting Mauer hasn’t played particularly well this season, however. Mauer’s hitting just .263/.334/.370, good for a 95 OPS+ that really puts this offensive era into context. With this latest era of pitching dominance, an OPS just over .700 has become a quasi-baseline for offensive competence, though that requires a few levels of nuance being stripped away.
 
And that doesn’t favor Mauer. Where it hurts is that the AL slash line for first basemen this year is .252/.333/447. Incidentally, Mauer’s pretty close on the first two marks, but his power falls short. Way short, in fact. That slash line results in a .781 positional OPS, which is eclipsed only by its NL counterpart (.271/.347/.464; an .811 collective mark).
 
Some people will point to Mauer’s RBI pace — roughly 75 if he were to have 600 PA — as a potential place he has improved, though it seems odd that it would have an opposite correlation with his worst offensive season. Others have suggested Mauer’s .403/.516/.522 line with runners in scoring position indicates he’s activated some sort of clutch gene, especially in correlation with his improved RBI totals. And while I reject the idea of clutch in baseball as a general rule — if you can arbitrarily raise your performance in certain situations, why wouldn’t you always? — I do think there’s something more at play there, and we’ll dig into it a bit here.
 
The talk early in the season was about how Mauer had re-worked some mechanical things in an effort to try pull the ball more. Very early returns suggested he was doing just that, and in fact was doing it at the expense of his usual bread and butter, which was hitting to the opposite field.
 
Let’s make one thing clear here: Mauer might be one of, if not the finest opposite field hitters of his era. Or any recent era, for that matter. For his career, this is how Mauer’s batted results have played out:
 
To left (opposite) field: .436/.427/.679 (1.106 OPS; .470 wOBA)
To center field: .372/.369/.491 (.859 OPS; .372 wOBA)
To right field: .277/.277/.396 (.673 OPS; .291 wOBA)
 
Keep in mind, this is his 12th big league season, so this is a ton of data. It’s hard to replicate context because those numbers don’t include walks — walks don’t have specific fields, that is — but essentially with this year’s numbers he’s been Bryce Harper to left field, Brian Dozier to center field and this year’s Michael Cuddyer (ICYMI, bad) to right over his career.
 
That gives one a pretty good idea of how great Mauer has been to left and to center. And when we had checked in back in late April, Mauer was hitting .450/.450/.500 in early returns to the pull side. At that same point, Mauer was hitting just .077/.077/.077 to the opposite field, and stories were abundant about his seismic shift to becoming a pull hitter.
 
Well, flash forward almost 70 days, and what do we find?
 
To left (opposite) field: .388/.378/.613 (.991 OPS; .419 wOBA)
To center field: .274/.267/.333 (.601 OPS; .258 wOBA)
To right field: .299/.299/.403 (.701 OPS; .306 wOBA)
 
I don’t know about you all, but that looks a lot like vintage Joe Mauer, with one huge, huge exception: center field has been absolutely dead. Now there are some things we can’t know simply from these numbers. For instance, frequency. We don’t know how often Mauer is hitting to left and capitalizing on such great numbers, at least not in comparison to center or right. A look at his season numbers might suggest not too terribly often.
 
Fortunately, we do have frequency numbers. Here’s Mauer’s hits breakdown by field:
 
31 to left
23 to center
20 to right
 
That comes out to roughly 41.9 percent to left, 31.1 percent to center and 27 percent to right. But how does that compare to his career numbers:
 
657 to left
603 to center
354 to right
 
So that comes out to roughly 40.7 percent to left, 37.4 percent to center and 21.9 percent to right. Now, what does that tell us, exactly? To be sure, maybe not as much as we’d like. It does suggest Mauer’s still wearing out left, and that he isn’t entirely ignoring right like his career rates. But this is still just hits. In other words, we’re ignoring outs to each side. Maybe checking instances of batted balls going to each field will give us a deeper look.
 
In 2015, here are the percentage of instances Mauer has hit to each specific field (via Fangraphs’ database):
 
82 to left
86 to center
67 to right
 
So just 34.9 percent of Mauer’s batted balls have gone to left. As for center, that’s 36.6 percent, and for right he’s at 28.5 percent.
 
For his career, he looks like this:
 
1543 to left
1636 to center
1280 to right
 
That breaks down to 34.6 percent pull, 36.7 percent to center and 28.7 percent to right. That’s sort of uncanny, but it’s almost exactly in line with his career rates. Wow.
 
So Mauer has returned to being supernaturally good at hitting the baseball the other way, but still hasn’t been particularly good. What gives?
 
It’s hard not to keep coming back to center field being a dead zone for Mauer after being so good to him early in his career. And with the advent of shifts in recent years, could that be affecting Mauer adversely? Most certainly. He even conceded as much in a recent chat with Cold Omaha. “There’s been a lot of times where they’ve put the shortstop up the middle and maybe taken a couple hits away,” Mauer said. “So that could be the reason.”
 
Coincidentally, Mauer hitting well with runners in scoring position does lend credence to the shifting idea, since teams aren’t apt to shift in those situations. After all, teams need to hold runners in those spots, so you won’t see a shortstop to the right of second, and so on. There probably isn’t enough data to make a definitive conclusion, but it’s an interesting theory.
 
Manager Paul Molitor suggested Mauer went through a phase where he was struggling with pitches he could hit, and perhaps lost a bit of his feel at the plate in terms of timing being a little off. The second half of Mauer’s June (.292/.386/.458 from June 16-30) was also markedly better than the first (.188/.291/.271 from June 1-15), coinciding with Molitor’s timeline and almost directly with a pair of opposite field home runs he hit off Cardinals reliever Kevin Siegrist and four days later of Chicago’s John Danks. Both of those went to the opposite field. “I think that confidence was buoyed by that home run he hit in the Cardinals series,” Molitor added.
 
Molitor also agreed with the idea that teams are taking away Mauer’s hot spots on the field. “We’ve seen different formations against Joe,” Molitor said. “Some people really bunch that middle. It’s how a team feels that their pitching staff is going to be able to handle him best, and then executing and trying to have their people in the right place. You can see how they do try to take a little bit more of the pull side at shortstop, and the third baseman can get over and protect that five hole a little bit. Outfields are tough for him, too, because they don’t worry about the right field corner. They really can rotate around to the other side, and it just doesn’t give him a lot of room. Left-center is covered. Left field line is covered. Right-center is covered. So yeah, it’s just kind of his tendencies and what they hit, and he kind of is one of those guys that charts don’t lie. He has places where he hits the ball more frequently, and sometimes it works against him.”
 
A Cold Omaha exclusive with hitting coach Tom Brunansky was particularly illuminating, in which he basically broke down not only what Mauer has been doing so far this season, but steps he and Joe can take to try fight back against the shifts.
 
Brunansky said foundationally, pretty much everything has been the same in terms of what Mauer is trying to do at the plate. “It’s just that the consistency of what he wants,” Brunansky said. “It’s a certain spot we want to get the hands and have them stop to get ready to fire. Some days he gets it, and there’s days where it keeps moving a little bit. And then he gets a little barrel lag, so we still keep working. That’s been the goal that we’ve worked on since day one. You saw the effects the other night of being able to drive the ball out of the ballpark. When those hands stop and they stay short, he’s able to get the barrel to especially pitches that are up. Both were high fastballs that are kind of tough for anybody else to get to that he can go plane out and get that pitch.”
 
Brunansky was of course referring to the home runs against Siegrist and Danks, and was especially effusive in his praise of how Mauer took the former deep on a 94-95 mph pitch in hitting zone three. “You’re talking 94-95 elevated,” Brunansky said of the Siegrist offering. “And his barrel, to keep the barrel through the plane enough to contact that ball. That’s pretty tough to do. So you know everything has to be solid up top. If he has any kind of lag and loses his barrel just an eighth of an inch, he’s probably going to pop that pitch up.” For a hitter whom some have whispered might be suffering from a slowing bat or reflexes, that’s an encouraging sign.
 
So what was the deal with the pull-heavy mantra early in the season? “I think the whole premise with pull was to get him to use the lower half,” Brunansky noted. “And to get the extension that he had lost a little bit, due to the injuries and everything that he had.” Brunansky went on to say that he felt Joe always had it within to revert back to what he called his “moneyball”, which is to say letting the ball get deep and spraying it out to left field.
 
“But he really wasn’t driving it, and that was the frustrating part,” Brunansky continued. “Then you see the defenses shift, and everybody just wedge over and cheat in. OK, I understand it if physically we can’t do what we need to do. But the health was back, the rotation was back. Working the pull side, all that constitutes is a finish. It’s extension. If you go and look at the video of the home run he hit the other day, the extension is where he caught the pitch out in front. Even though it went to left field, he still caught the ball out front like you’re supposed to. If he catches that deep, those aren’t home runs. And then plus, too, he wanted to make sure that we showed the league that we’re making an adjustment. We’re not just going to sit here and let them do this to us. We wanted to spread that field back up and create some more gaps for him.”
 
That seems to jive with the idea that Brunansky and Mauer are both aware that he’s being game-planned for a bit and trying to counteract it. So does that mean they think Mauer is inherently a “shiftable hitter?” As you might expect, Brunansky had a good answer for that as well.
 
 
Brunansky hones in on a couple different points that are interesting. He seems to concede that Mauer is, at least to some degree, a shiftable hitter, much like Molitor said as well. But he also went into depth with the idea that Joe, as he’s aged, has evolved as a hitter — and not necessarily in a positive way. That part is less encouraging.
 
The numbers flesh that out, too, at least in some respects. On the positive side, Mauer is striking out at 15.8 percent clip entering play Wednesday — his lowest mark since 2012. The deeper peripherals aren’t as encouraging, however. His contact rate is 85.5 percent, which is up from the last two years but still more than two percent below his career rate. His zone contact rate is down 2.5 percent from his career rate, and he’s swinging more this year than any other year of his career. Unfortunately, that increase is across the board, so it’s not just 4.2 percent more pitches overall against his career numbers, but when fleshed out boils down to 3.5 percent more pitches in the strike zone, and more concerningly 5 percent more pitches outside of the zone. In short, he’s doing much, much less with more swings.
 
It’s hard to draw a definitive, one-size-fits-all conclusion from this data, but here’s a try: Mauer’s already on a natural decline, and shifts have hastened it to the point where he’ll have to react, or remain a well below average offensive first baseman. At this point, it’s fair to wonder if that’s even possible.
 
The column originated at Cold Omaha here; please consider clicking through to support the content.

I've been a Twins fan my whole life. About 6 years ago I started paying more attention to the minor league system, and found myself getting excited about the potential of young guys. As I started to pay more attention, I found myself looking further down the pipeline to the Dominican Summer League stats to see who might be the next guys to show up on prospect lists. Of course information is pretty scarce on a majority of these players and scouting reports seems non-existent except for the higher bonus guys. While scouting box scores and stat lines is always precarious, one guy caught my eye. That player was mentioned by Miguel Sano as one to watch for this most recent spring - Alexis Tapia. Tapia will likely be heading to the Appy League next week, but has pitched 2 innings in relief for Fort Myers this year as well. And while he certainly has a work a lot to prove given that he is still in the rookie levels, I am pleased to see him getting some attention.
 
Why did he catch my eye in 2013 in the DSL box scores? A combination of his size (6'2" 190ish) and an excellent K/BB ratio (31/5). Tapia showed well in the GCL last year as well and hopefully the 19 year old will continue to develop and give Twins fan another pitcher to dream on.
 
As I look at this years DSL squad and some of the early season returns, there are a few pitchers with similar characteristic to those that drew my attention to Tapia. Of course, we are still dealing with extremely small sample sizes, but so far so good. While Huascar Ynoa gets more attention due to his larger signing bonus, here are a few others to keep an eye on: (Click on their name to go to their respective MILB player pages)
 
Brusdar Graterol : The 6' 1" 180lb Venezuelan righty has pitched 10 innings across 3 outings and amassed 15 strikeouts to just 1 walk, an impressive start for the youngster who is still only 16 years old!
 
Carlos Suniaga : Another Venezuelan righty, Suniaga turned 18 last month and is 6'2" 187. In 12.2 innings he has struck out 11 and walked only 1.
 
Miguel De Jesus : Miguel is a bit older at 19 and comes from the Dominican Republic. He's 6'2" 175 and also throws right handed. He has been dominant though, with 22 K's and only 1 BB in 15.2 innings. His WHIP is a ridiculous 0.45 and he has yet to allow a run. Due to his older age, perhaps we could see De Jesus make a few appearances in the GCL this season.
 
Luis Bellorin : Luis is another Venezuelan. He's 17 years old 6'1" 167. He's a bit smaller and his walk numbers aren't quite as good as the others on this list. In 14.1 innings, he has walked 6 and struck out 12. Again, the numbers aren't quite as exciting, Luis is unique to the others in an exciting way due to the fact that he's a southpaw.
 
It will be interesting to see how these young guys develop. Obviously, they've got a long way to go to even get on the prospect radar, let alone a big league roster. However, their numbers this year suggest the Twins have done a pretty good job of adding some upside arms in the international market.

The Twins didn't score many runs in Boston until they faced a knuckleballer and took advantage of leaky Boston defense. They had one good inning in two games against the Brewers. They still have a good number of runs scored and a positive run differential. They sit in first place by one game with the second-place Royals due in town Monday.
 
In the very successful month of May, the Twins were led by the four guys who usually hit in the first four spots in the order. After a hot first half of the month, Hunter has leveled off and still carries good numbers. Mauer slumped much of the month, but managed to drive in an inordinate amount of runs by being very successful with runners on base, he is showing signs of warming up, but has a long way to reach his career norms. Plouffe is currently in a deep slump after being a consistent run producer and power threat for the first two months. Finally, Dozier remains hot, raising his average above .260 while on an extra-base hit rampage. The club needs help from someone beside those four guys.
 
Twins Daily has had plenty of people complaining about the position players on the team. Shane Robinson, Eduardo Nuñez, Danny Santana, and Chris Herrmann all have detractors who think they shouldn't be on the 25-man roster. Of course, there remain 13 pitchers, leaving one less bench player. Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas and Josmil Pinto have all played for the Twins and are at Rochester now waiting to be recalled.
 
The pitching staff also has suspects among their ranks, probably all in the bullpen. Brian Duensing's numbers are terrible, Tim Stauffer has failed to impress, and Aaron Thompson has regressed hard. With Michael Tonkin, AJ Achter and Lester Oliveros laboring in Rochester, it would seem to make sense to part company with the soft tossing older veterans.
 
Since the club is in first place, perhaps the pressure isn't as great to make a move. However, they probably need to make a move or two before the current lull becomes a full-blown slump. If I were sitting in the GM's chair, I would send Danny Santana to Rochester and replace him with Vargas. Santana seems to have lost confidence and a trip to Rochester might restore that confidence. Vargas' numbers in AAA have been good (SSS) and the club desperately needs a threat (preferably LH) to hit behind Plouffe. If the bullpen is settled after the next turn of starters, perhaps they can reduce the bullpen. The obvious candidates to be let go would be Duensing and Stauffer, but it wouldn't surprise me if Aaron Thompson is optioned instead. Perhaps then it would be time for Arcia to return and try his luck in the outfield.
 
It is less than one month from Ervin Santana getting back and pitching with the Twins. Another pitching decision would have to be made at that time. As long as they are in the hunt, development as a major leaguer takes second place to winning games. It will be interesting to see what happens with calendars turning from spring to fall.

Max Kepler has been featured up and down Twins prospect lists since the Twins signed him as a teenager out of Europe. The list of successful major league players born in Europe is small but there's always been a little something extra with Kepler.
 
His parents were both professional dancers so he's got a strong athletic background. Minnesota took it slow with Kepler allowing him to play three years in the rookie leagues. Over the last two seasons, he has worked through both Low-A and High-A and spent the fall in the Arizona Fall League. The Twins added him to the 40-man roster following the 2013 season and he's spent the majority of 2015 at Double-A.
 
The 2013 season had to be a low point for Kepler. He suffered an elbow injury early in the season and he didn't make it onto the field until the end of June. When he returned, he struggled at the plate hitting .237/.312/.424 with 23 extra-base hits in 61 games. In the AFL, he managed a .618 OPS with five doubles in 72 plate appearances. It wasn't a full season debut to write home about.
 
Things started trending in the right direction during the 2014 campaign. He was healthier and played in over 100 games with Fort Myers. His slugging percentage dipped a little bit (.393 SLG) but his batting average (.264 BA) and on-base percentage (.333 OBP) both improved. Kepler was also close to two years younger than the other hitters in the league so there were signs of good things to come.
 
This season Kepler is part of a stacked line-up in Chattanooga that includes the likes of top prospects Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Jorge Polanco. Up to this point in the season, he is outperforming many of the names ahead of him on top prospect lists.
 
Across 23 Double-A games this season, Kepler is batting .326/.363/.500 with 11 extra-base hits (entering play on 5/19). He hasn't had a slugging percentage of .500 or higher since his second trip through the Appalachian League back in 2012. He's also never hit over .300 at any level.
 
Besides improving his numbers at the plate, Kepler is also making waves with the other parts of his game. He's already stolen six bases this year after totaling six steals all of last season. His career high in steals is seven so he should be well on his way to breaking that mark.
 
On defense, he's split time between all three outfield positions and first base. He's been perfect fielding in the outfield to go along with an assist from right field, the outfield spot he's played the most. At first base, he's committed two errors but his fielding percentage is still higher than it was last season.
 
Kepler's improvements this season definitely make him a player to watch. There's a good chance the Twins will see many of the top prospects debut at some point this season and this could mean Kepler shoots up prospect lists next off-season with the potential to be a top 100 prospect in all of baseball.
 
 
There's still a lot of season left but Kepler has shown some early season signs that he's ready to breakout in a big way.
 
For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

It may not be what casual baseball fans want to see, but in most cases and at most levels of professional baseball, the teams with the best pitching win the most games. Sometimes, it really is that simple.
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(L-R) Zack Larson, Stephen Gonsalves, Zach Granite and CK Irby sign autographs on the field after a Kernels game on April 26

It arguably has been exactly that simple for the Cedar Rapids Kernels over the course of the first three weeks of their season.
 
The Kernels are 11-7 on the year and sitting in a second place tie behind the Quad Cities River Bandits in the Midwest League’s Western Division standings. They open their first series with the Bandits on Tuesday in Davenport.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
Cedar Rapids’ offense has been, at best, a bit streaky. They sit at or near the middle of the MWL pack in most hitting categories, though they have managed to score the fourth-most runs in the league.
 
But, through the weekend's games, Kernels pitchers lead the MWL in team ERA (2.27), strikeouts (187) and WHIP (1.09).
 
When you see team numbers like those, obviously it’s not just one or two guys carrying the load.
 
The Kernels are consistently getting quality work out of their starting rotation and their bullpen has been locking things down in the late innings.
 
Manager Jake Mauer and pitching coach Henry Bonilla have primarily used six pitchers in their rotation, so far. Stephen Gonsalves, Mat Batts, Felix Jorge, Michael Cederoth, John Curtiss and Jared Wilson have accounted for all but two of Cedar Rapids’ starts this year.
 
Zack Tillery has one spot start and Twins pitcher Ricky Nolasco started Sunday's game on a rehabilitation assignment.
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Michael Theofanopoulos

Gonsalves, Batts and Jorge each have ERAs at 1.50 or better, with Gonsalves leading the team at 0.90.
 
The success of Gonsalves and Batts is impressive, but not entirely unexpected. The two pitchers combined to make 13 starts for the Kernels last season and both were being counted on from the season's onset to make strong contributions again in 2015.
 
Jorge’s success was far from a sure thing, however, at least in the minds of fans who only saw his work on the mound for Cedar Rapids early last year. In 2014, he put up a 2-5 record in 12 appearances (including eight starts) and amassed a 9.00 ERA before being sent back to Extended Spring Training by the Twins.
 
Jorge turned his year around with a solid season at rookie-level Elizabethton, but nobody was quite certain what to expect from the 21-year-old righthander during his second shot in the Midwest League.
“This was the Jorge we thought we were getting last year,” Mauer said recently. “It's a lot of things. Here it was freezing cold, he probably didn't get comfortable right away.
 
"He's got a different look to him (this year). He's way more confident. He's worked really hard with Henry as far as his timing, when his hands break. he seems to be way more in rhythm than he was last year. If you can be way more in rhythm, you're going to throw a lot more strikes.”
 
Bonilla, who was also Jorge's pitching coach in Elizabethton last year, is happy to see the improved version of the pitcher this season.
 
“It's good to see him get some good games under him early, especially with the cold," Bonilla said over the weekend, of Jorge. "I think the cold kind of had him a little bit last year. But he's kind of taken responsibility for that and he's gone forward.
 
"Ultimately, at the end of the year, you can hopefully start seeing his (velocity) get back to where it was when he was a young kid and his delivery get down in the zone a little bit. His breaking balls are coming along pretty good."
 
Bonilla thinks Jorge was primarily throwing an 88-89 mph fastball a year ago, which is not what the Twins were expecting when they gave the then-17-year-old Domincan a $250,000 signing bonus in early 2011.
 
"That's not really what he is. I think he's kind of getting back to it. We're doing some stuff mechanically. Hopefully, by the end of the season, we're talking more plan and location, instead of delivery, with him."
 
Of course, the downside for Kernels fans to having pitchers get off to hot starts is that the fans may not get many more opportunities to watch those players in Cedar Rapids. They are all just a phone call away from a promotion to the class high-A Fort Myers Miracle.
 
Batts, at 23 years old, might be a guy the Twins want to push up a level as soon as he appears ready and, between the end of last season and his start to the current campaign, the Twins could be getting close to wanting to see what he can do against more mature hitters.
 
It may be likely that the parent club would want to see Jorge demonstrate more extended success in the Midwest League, given his false start at this level a year ago.
 
Gonsalves doesn’t turn 21 until July, but his manager feels the Twins’ fourth round pick in 2013 has already shown just about enough to move up a level.
 
“He’s getting close,” Mauer said recently, when asked if he thought Gonsalves might be ready for a promotion. “I’d like to see a little more shape on his breaking ball, but he's dominated the teams that he's thrown against. If he gets a breaking ball, he's going to be really dangerous. Really, really dangerous.”
 
Gonsalves' velocity on his fastball has ticked upward this season but his manager doesn't think he's topped out yet.
 
"I think it's going to even get better. As he keeps maturing, I think he's going to be a 94-95 (mph) guy. I really do. When he gets his 'man-muscles,' as they say. I think he's really going to bring it.
 
"He's thrown some better this year. Some breaking balls have had some shape, compared to last year. He gets bigger and stronger, that ball will have even more shape. He's got a good change up. But I think he's going to run it up there pretty good."
 
The bullpen could be ripe for plucking by the Miracle, as well, if the need arises.
 
It's a bullpen that even their manager had expressed some nervousness about at the onset of the season.
 
“We didn't know who was going to step up," Mauer recalled over the weekend, ”and they've been outstanding. Really, really good.”
 
The nine pitchers who have made relief appearances for the Kernels have put up a combined 1.92 ERA out of the pen.
 
Relievers Cameron Booser (1.13), Trevor Hildenberger (1.00) and Michael Theofanopoulos (1.74) are each sporting sub-2.00 ERAs for the Kernels.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Tillery15a-600x400.jpg
Zack Tillery

This crew has brought some heat in April.
 
The only full-time reliever who hasn’t averaged a strikeout per inning is newcomer Miles Nordgren, who has made just two appearances since joining the Kernels as the replacement for Curtiss, who went on the disabled list with a concussion. And, while Nordgren hasn’t been a strikeout machine in those two appearances, he also hasn’t given up a run.
 
In that regard, he joins Tillery and Wilson, neither of which have surrendered an earned run in their relief appearances.
 
Bonilla is glad to see his staff get off to a good start, before the hitters start to catch up to them.
 
“They're taking advantage of the cold and that's a good thing," the pitching coach explained, "because once it gets warm, the bats get hot, too. Those guys want to swing the lumber. It's good numbers-wise. It's a confidence boost a little bit."
 
But Bonilla believes the hot start for his pitching corps is important for reasons that go beyond the obvious results on the field. He believes that early success also aids individual development.
 
"There's some things each guy is working on - his own individual plan and the goals we have for him," he explained. "It's good to get off to a fast start because it builds confidence in the season and they're more open to do things that maybe they werent - that they're reluctant to do when they're struggling.
 
"When you're struggling, you want to get back to what you're comfortable with. So we can maybe add a few things like maybe sink the ball a little bit more to certain guys - working on breaking balls. They're a lot more open, when you're having success, to do things. When you're struggling, you're just grinding away.”
 
If the Kernels can keep most of this pitching staff intact and the bats in the lineup can heat up as the weather warms up, Cedar Rapids could be a serious Midwest League contender in 2015.

It’s pretty hard to imagine this baseball season getting off to a better start, isn’t it? I mean, even the most optimistic of us probably wouldn’t have predicted a .789 winning percentage through the first week of games! This looks like it could be a fun summer of baseball!
 
What’s that? You say the Twins are languishing with a 1-6 record? Who cares? I’m talking about their full-season minor league affiliates! That’s where the action (and literally ALL of the fun) is!
 
The AAA Rochester Red Wings are 3-1.
 
The newest Twins affiliate, the AA-level Chattanooga Lookouts (with arguably one of the most loaded rosters in all of minor league baseball) are sitting at 4-1.
 
The Class A Advanced Fort Myers Miracle are 3-2 (pending the outcome of their Tuesday game – what’s up with these morning start times, anyway?).
 
And last, but certainly not least, the Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels are still on pace to be a perfect 140-0 at the end of the year after winning their first five games of the season.
 
That means that the four minor league affiliates, combined, are 15-4 through Monday night and have lost two fewer games than the Twins have managed to drop all by themselves.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/batteredball.jpg
Does this represent the Twins' pitching woes or their farm clubs' hitting prowess? Take your pick.

Of course, it’s early. You don’t want to read too much in to the small sample size of a week’s worth of games. After all, will even the Twins continue losing at their current pace to finish the year with a 27-135 record? Of course they won’t. Well – probably not, anyway.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)
 
But while those of you who insist on following only the big leaguers continue to wonder why you’re paying big league prices to watch what even Torii Hunter has admitted to essentially being “Bad News Bears” baseball, here’s a small sample of what you’ve been missing on the farm:
The Red Wings have three guys, all deemed by Twins management to be unworthy of a spot with the Twins, with an OPS over 1.000. Two of them, Danny Ortiz and Aaron Hicks, would likely improve the Twins’ outfield defense if they weren’t wearing Rochester uniforms. The third, Josmil Pinto, probably deserves an entire post dedicated to discussing why he should or shouldn’t be in Minnesota.
The consensus top two Twins prospects, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, both are in the Lookouts’ everyday lineup, so it’s not surprising that Chattanooga also has three guys with above-1.000 OPS numbers. Then again, none of those three guys are named Buxton or Sano. Stephen Wickens, DJ Hicks and Travis Harrison are bringing the lumber, so far, for the Lookouts. They aren’t the only productive hitters, however. That lineup is stacked, as expected. Their TEAM OPS is .829. Oh, and their pitchers are striking out almost 1.3 batters per inning, too.
Niko Goodrum is a .400 hitter, going in to Tuesday’s game, for the Miracle, who also had two starting pitchers, Aaron Slegers and Ryan Eades, who each tossed six shutout innings in their initial starts of the season.
No less than five Kernels hitters have put up 1.000+ OPS numbers through the first five games. As a TEAM, the Kernels have put up a .316/.380/.471 (.851 OPS) slash line. That Midwest League-leading team batting average is a full 47 points over the next highest team in the league. Not to be outdone, the pitching staff has put up a 1.80 ERA, so far, and have struck out 57 batters in a combined 45 innings of work.

Conversely, the Twins have put up a team OPS of .530 on the season, which is the worst in Major League Baseball. Their team ERA is 6.52, which is also dead last among the 30 big league teams. Not coincidentally, their 35 staff strikeouts is also good for dead last.
 
All of this might be more understandable if the Twins had made clear that, for the good of the franchise, they were going to punt on 2015 - that the plan would be to plug journeymen “replacement level” players in to fill every perceived gap in their big league roster, in order to give their much-heralded minor league prospects more time to become adequately seasoned on the farm.
 
But that’s not what they did. Every public comment from everyone in the organization from the end of 2014’s fourth consecutive 90+ loss season through the final days of spring training expressed the company line that they were expecting significant improvement this season.
 
That's not really surprising. Twins fans generally hear that refrain every offseason.
 
The truth is that the Twins have been hoping that fans would be patient, because there really is a ton of young talent approaching the Major League team's doorstep. From the sounds coming from Target Field on Monday, it seems that 'patient' is not exactly what much of the fan base is feeling.
 
I don't think it had to be this way.
 
Back in early October, I wrote that I thought it was time for the Twins to adjust their model, when it comes to promoting their prospects. I suggested that, despite both guys losing virtually their entire seasons a year ago to injury, the Twins should consider simply promoting Buxton and Sano and letting them learn their craft on the big stage.
 
I argued that, yes they would struggle, but they’re likely to struggle a while whenever they are finally promoted and both young men have demonstrated that they learn, adapt and, ultimately, dominate, very quickly as each new challenge is presented.
 
I also argued for either signing one of the top free agent starting pitchers or simply getting Alex Meyer and Trevor May in to the rotation from the start and setting up Jose Berrios for a debut not too deep in to the season.
 
I didn’t discuss the bullpen, at the time, but if I’d known what the Opening Day bullpen was going to look like, I’d have argued pretty forcefully for an immediate youth movement there, too.
 
Instead, the Twins have assembled a cast at the big league level that deflated and discouraged its fan base (warm welcome-home ovation for Torii Hunter, notwithstanding) virtually before the Home Opener was finished.
 
The future does look bright. There is an embarrassment of riches in terms of baseball talent in the Twins organization.
 
Unfortunately, the Twins have decided that you won’t see a lot of it at Target Field for a while.
 
That’s bad news for fans in Minnesota, but Twins fans in New York, Florida, Tennessee and Iowa look to be in for a lot of fun this summer.

The Minnesota Twins have started out the 2015 season in just about the worst fashion possible (ok they could be winless). While there's no doubt at all that being this bad is concerning, the bigger issue seems to come from within. From Terry Ryan on down through Paul Molitor, the organization seems to be operating on the principle that doing the same things they have always done, will somehow now produce different results. As if four abysmal seasons weren't enough evidence to the contrary, the beginning of this season should definitely be.
 
Because everything starts and ends with pitching, the Twins have gone out and targeted the problem area in hopes of addressing it. Unfortunately, only one of the past three starting pitchers signed has panned out thus far. There's no doubt Ricky Nolasco has an incredible hole to dig out of, and Ervin Santana still remains up in the air. Starting pitching however is still not yet an asset for the Twins, and the bullpen is even worse.
 
Suggesting the bullpen is bad probably isn't quite fair, it doesn't do justice to the definition. Phil Mackey recently penned a pitching manifesto in regards to the Twins, and it should be a mix of tears and laughter to you. Once again, the Twins have struck out on nearly every pitching option they have used to fill out their bullpen, while overlooking internal prospects that would seemingly offer a higher ceiling. Trying to pick up arms off the scrap heap has rarely panned out for the Twins before, yet the continue to follow the trend.
 
Rounding out the roster, Minnesota has given jobs to players such as Eduardo Nunez, Shane Robinson, and Jordan Schafer. An already uphill battle to be competitive, the organization has made regulars out of fringe major leaguers with little to no ceiling. Knowing the production has already been cast off by better organizations, the Twins continue to operate under a belief that they know better.
 
Getting to where things currently stand, Terry Ryan and the Minnesota Twins have become a by-product of their own poor decision making. You may have heard the idea that in order to do something you haven't previously achieved, you must be willing to take action you were previously unwilling to do. Minnesota has yet to operate under this belief, and continue down a cyclical path of mediocrity. While Ryan and the organization suggest that their goal is to win now, the actions and execution suggest nothing but the exact opposite.
 
With a loaded farm system, the worry must translate into the handling of some exciting up and coming prospects. Currently out of the every day reach of Ryan and his handling of the major league club, the eventual promotion of players like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano may now bring fear. An organization lacking the self-awareness to pull out from underneath the issues it has created, only brings a bigger level of uncertainty when more important assets find themselves mishandled.
 
There's no doubt that throwing away the 2015 season at this point would be incredibly premature. However, there's also no doubt that if drastic changes in theory and execution in regards to how a competitive baseball team should look aren't made, there's little reason to expect different results through September. At this point, it's bad, and I'm uncertain as to whether or not the Twins are willing to do things they've never done.
 
For more from Off The Baggy click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In the annals of Twins history, the legacy of Bill Smith is never going to be thought of in a positive manner. There are many dubious moments from his tenure at the helm of the Twins organization. During his first year, he had to deal with Torii Hunter, the face of the franchise, leaving via free agency and multiple Cy Young award winner Johan Santana wanting to be traded.
 
Hunter would head to southern California on a big contract. Santana was dealt for what amounted to be a bag of balls. Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, and Kevin Mulvey were sent from New York to Minnesota. None of these players made a significant impact on the Twins big league roster even though Gomez has developed into one of the best players in the National League.
 
The other big deal at the beginning of Smith's tenure was between Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Hunter's departure left a hole in the line-up and the Twins hunted down former top draft pick Delmon Young. It cost the Twins a hefty price in the form of Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, who would help Tampa win the 2008 American League pennant.
 
Even though these two trades have come to epitomize some of Smith's poor skills as general manager, the Twins are starting to see some positives out from the Smith era.
 
Smith's second MLB draft as general manager took place in June 2009. The Twins had the 22nd pick in the first round and used it to select college pitcher Kyle Gibson (Mike Trout was taken three picks later but a ton of other team's passed over him as well). Gibson has developed into a nice asset at the major league level and there's hope that new pitching coach Neil Allen will be able to help Gibson refine his change-up.
 
Minnesota's biggest steal in the draft might have been their eighth round pick a college shortstop by the name of Brian Dozier. Dozier has turned himself into one of the best second baseman in the American League and the Twins are committed to him being a cornerstone as the team tries to rebuild. According to Baseball Reference, Dozier has been worth more WAR than all but two first round picks (Trout and Stephen Strasburg).
 
Drafting Dozier and Gibson weren't the only major additions during this calendar year. Minnesota was active on the international market by signing Miguel Sano ($3.15 million), Jorge Polanco ($750,000), and Max Kepler ($775,000). Each one of these players has found their way onto top prospect lists and all three could end up being significant contributors at the big league level.
 
Sano has been highly thought of since signing with the Twins and he should make his major league debut this season. He's one of the best power hitting prospects in the minor leagues and the Twins are counting on him to make a significant impact over in the coming years.
 
Polanco continues to shine on the defensive side of the ball while showing he could have the skills to stick at the shortstop position for the long run. His offensive numbers continue to improve and last season he became the youngest player since Joe Mauer to debut with the Twins.
 
Kepler still has a lot of potential and Minnesota has been patiently waiting for him to have a breakout season. He's getting closer to the higher minors and he's already on the 40-man roster. If everything breaks right, he could turn into a very good everyday player with a wide-ranging skill set.
 
 
Reflecting back on the Bill Smith years can be kind of depressing. Besides the moves mentioned above, there was the JJ Hardy trade(s), the Matt Capps deal, and the signing of Tsuyoshi Nishioka. It's starting to look more and more like his additions to the minor leagues during the 2009 season might provide a little light at the end of a very dark tunnel.
 
For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

Today we skipped the major league game and spent our morning and afternoon on the back fields. But only after watching some of the major leaguers doing drills on the front field. Looked like they were concentrating on the pitchers making their throws to bases - I wonder if the snafus in yesterday's game had anything to do with that.
 
Had a nice chat there with TDers John Bonnes, Jim Crikket, Halsey Hall, and beckmt (I believe only one of these names appears on any of these gentlemen's birth certificates). Baseball on a warm southwest Florida day is even better with friends old and new.
 
The two "A" games started at 1 pm, both against corresponding Rays affiliates. We mainly watched the nominal Cedar Rapids team managed by Jake Mauer, and I took one short peek at the Ft Myers team managed by Jeff Smith. I mention the teams this way, rather than a hard and fast A/A+ classification, because the players themselves were a mishmash from the rosters that were published only a few days earlier. Things change fast in spring training as the major league roster gets pared down and the ripple effect works its way down the organization. I'm sure what we saw today was a close approximation to the final assignments.
 
I didn't keep a scoresheet, but I did jot down a few thoughts. (Oh, and you'll notice there are no photos; bummer, I forgot to reinsert the memory card into my camera after downloading last night.)
 
Baby faced Stephen Gonsalves started for the Kernels. He proved to be a very tough draw for the Rays batters, just as a highly touted prospect should be. He notched two strikeouts to start the game, and then had a truly wicked liner come right back to him, one that somehow ended up in his mitt instead of somewhere less lucky. That was probably the hardest hit ball against him - I think he gave up one seeing-eye hit and altogether he had a sparkling day.
 
My one look at the other field was in what I assume to be starter Chih-Wei Hu's final inning of work. When I strolled over, it was first and third with nobody out. I don't know for sure how he got into the jam - a Rays coach briefed me as maybe a hit and an error - but he worked his way out nicely, with the batters having difficulty dealing with the movement on the ball. Hu doesn't have the fastball that evaluators like, but so far he has had nothing but success in his two years in the low minors, and like a fool I am thinking his ceiling could be front of the rotation. No one else on the planet has expressed such optimism - so I'll be gloating when he starts Game One of a World Series - one of these days Real Soon Now.
 
Catcher Brian Navarreto nailed a runner trying to steal second, to end one inning, and I'm not sure I ever saw a bigger grin on a player's face when he headed back to his dugout. And he had a right to be pleased, I thought - a really good throw.
 
Jorge Fernandez contributed a no-doubter home run to left.
 
Late in the game Brandon Poulson came in to pitch for one inning. His reputation for wildness appeared deserved - and while sometimes you hear "effectively wild" he wasn't very effective either. Jose Velez preceded Poulson and seemed to have good velocity (AshburySteven groaned when I attempted "Velezity") but he was pretty hittable, yet he escaped without too much damage. Kuo Hua Lo pitched a couple of innings and gave up some solid shots that I think plated a run. I haven't given you a very good idea of the scoring, because I fail to keep track in games like this, but I think the final score was about 4-2 in our favor.
 
Tanner English legged out a single, hit to short, that many other players would not have.
 
And speaking of short players, Rays 2B prospect Oscar Sanay is listed on b-r.com as 5'7" but at the plate he looked not much taller than substitute catcher Brett Doe crouching. The above-mentioned Tanner, listed at a generous 5'10", no doubt towers over him. I don't remember much about what he did, he just caught my eye.
 
Much more the prototypical looking player is first baseman Tyler Kuresa. His fiancee sat near us, and we chatted pleasantly about him and random other topics, as the game went along. Hint to Seth - he might be a good one to interview in depth - I know now for instance he takes pride in his defense at 1B. (Another of those Spring Training pleasures is watching Tom Kelly proceed onto the field in foul territory and coach his defense, in-game. Kuresa got a tip or two that way today.) The lefty looked good at the plate today, hitting an at'em ball to CF for an out and getting a nice sharp single to RF, suggesting that his good showing in Elizabethton was no fluke last year. A Rays lefty with a vicious sidearm delivery did strike him out on what appeared to be a low offspeed pitch on 3-2 after an otherwise good battle. So he's someone I'll add to my Players I'll Be Watching list this year.

Air travel isn't fun and while I am not a frequent flier, I have flown enough no longer to be fascinated by small aisles, nuts and soda, and the people watching. I sat alone in coach and was joined by an delightful Floridian/Minnesotan returning to Minnesota for a funeral. It passed the time and temporarily made me forget about the nasty URI I managed to get in the sunshine state.
 
We looked out the window and saw snow, probably starting somewhere around the Iowa/Minnesota border, maybe north of that. We were back in cold climate, where the jacket I brought with me could be put to use for the first time in seven days.
 
I have been wondering how to summarize the (likely final) trip I made to Fort Myers. There is a bit of melancholy because I think I have figured out the driving--I know the major arteries and where they are in relation to most of the places I want to get to. Now, I probably won't use that information soon, if at all. I feel comfortable at Twins' Spring Training. I mostly know where to go to see what I want to see. I have thoroughly enjoyed watching the young players in the back fields.
 
This year, I met more Twins Daily regulars than ever before. It is great to put a face to a screen name and to know more about a fan than whether he liked Gardy or Rick Anderson. Specifically, I met Halsey Hall, Ashbury John and thrylos, along with three other people who read but don't post. Good guys all, with disparate views on most issues in baseball (and probably world view). I know I owe Ashbury a beer, so I guess I'll have to pay up at Target Field this summer if he and I are at the same game.
 
Some singular thoughts: Aaron Hicks is a bigger man than Torii Hunter. I saw them take BP together and Hicks is definitely taller and probably just as wide as Torii. Speaking of size, Ervin Santana is not a big guy. He is listed at 6'2" 185, and I think especially the weight might be an exaggeration. Ricky Nolasco looks a bit trimmer than last year, perhaps yielding better results because of that. The Twins have a lot of big 'uns--Meyer, May, Tonkin, Pelfrey, Wheeler, Hughes, Gibson to name a few.
 
Hard throwers are not far off: Burdi and Reed both seem to be ticketed for AA, and both throw hard. Meyer will start in Rochester and Oliveros, Tonkin, and more will be laboring in the 'pen.
 
The Twins long-term and short-term future will probably be answered en español. Along with the already arrived Vargas, Santana, Pinto, and Arcia, both the upper and lower minors are filled with Hispanic ballplayers with Berrios, Sano, Polanco, Rosario, and more poised to contribute as soon as this year. In spring training, minor leaguers not participating watch the minor league games. The language amongst the viewers and in the dugouts is principally Spanish.
 
I understand that the Twins are working hard to accommodate this influx. There are more coaches with Hispanic names and the team demands the players take English lessons. The cultural change isn't easy and I hope the club continues to go out of their way to help these young men in a new country with different standards and a different language.
 
I am going with an optimistic view for 2015, based on rolling a bunch of sevens and filling inside straights. The talent is abundant at Century Link Complex. Some way, somehow, that is going to equate to many more wins in 2015 for the Minnesota Twins.

Source: 30 Twins Prospects I'll Be Watching In 2015

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
 
A great article was written today by Jonathan Judge and published at The Hardball Times, called FIP in Context, introducing an new metric, called cFIP, or contest-adjusted FIP that attempts to "estimate the pitcher’s true pitching talent during a particular season". Always interested in new pitching metrics development, and not only because I have partaken myself in the endeavor. this is an interesting one, albeit much more complex than PE and xPE. It also correlates well with SIERA, which along with xPE (because it is easy to calculate) are my 2 favorite predictive metrics regarding pitching performance.
 
I will not steal Jonathan's thunder, please read that excellent article, but I will present his framework and then present his work regarding the Twins' pitchers (he calculated cFIPs for every pitcher in the league the past 4 years, including Jamie Carroll.) The cFIP scale is normalized to 100 for average, just like OPS+ and ERA+, but it is a minus scale, meaning that less is better, like ERA and FIP and SIERA and all similar metrics. Should have been called cFIP-, but that is a different story. So 100 is average and less is better. Jonathan Judge has the following buckets of pitchers, according their cFIP:
 
 
<70 nbsp="" p="" superb="">70–85 Great
85–95 Above Avg.
95–105 Average
105–115 Below Avg.
115–130 Bad
130+ Awful
 
Let's put the 2014 Minnesota Twins' pitching staff in those buckets. For reference, players that are not still with the team are in (parenthesis). I am also including the 2015 cFIP numbers of the newcomers this off-season. They have an asterisk behind their names, that would have made Barry Bonds jealous:
 
Superb:
Phil Hughes 70
 
Great:
Glen Perkins 74
 
Above Avg.:
Casey Fien 89
Tim Stauffer 91*
(Yohan Pino 94)
 
Average:
Aaron Thompson 98
Logan Darnell 99
Ricky Nolasco 100
Trevor May 101
Ervin Santana 101*
Michael Tonkin 102
Caleb Thielbar 103
Blaine Boyer 103*
Lester Oliveros 105
 
Below Avg.:
(Jared Burton 106)
(Kris Johnson 106)
(Sam Deduno 107)
Stephen Pryor 108
Kyle Gibson 109
(Anthony Swarzak 111)
A. J. Achter 112
Ryan Pressly 112
Brian Duensing 114
Tommy Milone 114
 
Bad:
(Matt Guerrier 116)
(Kevin Correia 119)
 
Awful:
Mike Pelfrey 132
 
A few obsevations:

According to this, the Twins had a superb pitcher, Phil Hughes, a great pitcher, Glen Perkins, and 13 total (I am not counting the newcomers) pitchers (that is a full MLB staff, ladies and gentlemen) who were average, above average, great or superb. Mike Pelfrey (who tied for worst in the majors in this metric) was the only awful pitcher in the Twins' staff
But, The Twins had the second worst bullpen in the majors according to xFIP and SIERA and the third worst rotation in the majors, according to SIERA (fourth according to xFIP)
Other than Yohan Pino, who was an unfortunate loss, The Twins' front office seems to behave pretty well according to this metric: The pitchers they let go, are all bellow average or beyond. They did keep a few below average pitchers, and they did keep Mike Pelfrey, who is better suited for the pen and was injured. Other than Duensing who had a down season, the below average pitchers are all young.

Big issue in the big picture here: The Twins had a whole staff worth (13) pitchers who were average and above, yet they managed to be almost at the bottom of the league in pitching. Those things seem pretty conflicting.
 
Let's dig deeper and check out the 2013 Twins' cFIP buckets that Jonathan Judge calculated. For reference purposes, players who left after 2013 are in parenthesis and I added Ricky Nolasco (with an asterisk) as well
 
 
Superb:
Glen Perkins 63
Casey Fien 67
 
Great:
Nobody
 
Above Avg.:
Jared Burton 91
Caleb Thielbar 91
Ricky Nolasco 93*
Michael Tonkin 94
 
Average:
Anthony Swarzak 97
Brian Duensing 97
(Shairon Martis 105)
 
Below Avg.:
Mike Pelfrey 109
(Liam Hendriks 110)
Ryan Pressly 111
(Cole DeVries 114)
(Andrew Albers 115)
 
Bad:
Kevin Correia 116
Samuel Deduno 116
(Josh Roenicke 118)
(P.J. Walters 122)
(Vance Worley 124)
Kyle Gibson 125
(Scott Diamond 129)
 
Awful:
Nobody
 
This is some really interesting data. Here is what I see:

I think that I either underestimated the Twins' Front Office use of metrics in personnel decisions building the team or Jack Goin should buy me a beer next week at Hammond Stadium, because this tool really describes what the Twins are doing regarding personnel decisions: The tend to get rid of below average and below pitchers and add average and above pitchers. Hughes was around 100, but I did not add him here. This is a stop the presses type of statement, me coming close to shake my head in approval of what the front office is doing...
This tells a tale of 2 cities: All the Average and above pitchers were relievers. All starters were bellow average or worse but not awful. And Pelfrey was the best.
Enough with 2013. What happened in 2014, comparatively to 2013? Every single reliever from Perkins down regressed, while the starters (save hurt Pelfrey and replacement level Correia) improved. This is fundamentally interesting, because it kinds of breaks some old school axioms. And the one excuse for the decline of the Twins' pen in 2014 was that, they were worse because they were too tired because the rotation was so bad. This data, turns this upside down: The Twins 2013 rotation was worse than the Twins 2014 rotation, and the 2014 Twins' pen made the 2014 Twins rotation worse. So a bad pen can make a rotation worse. Like a reliever coming in with 2 outs and the bases loaded to give a grand slam and 4 runs to the starter. What a concept...

I am starting to really like this metric... So (and this is really hard for me to say) the Front Office did some improvements for 2014, that actually seem to be supported by real data, but the pitching tanked compared to 2013. Why?
 
I'd love to hear your theories after this, and this is what I am thinking:

Look at that 2014 list up there. In your mind, normalize it for playing time. That would shift the buckets heavier to the below average. How many games did Pino or May start compared to Pelfrey, Correia, Deduno? Why was Burton used in high leverage situations over better relievers? Yes. Do the same normalization for playing time for the 2013 data. And you are looking at evidence of what has been written here loudly and clear about mismanagement of the Twins' pitching staff by Gardy and Andy for ages.
This has to be part of the reason cause for the pen decline in 2014, and the root causes are described within there. And they have to be fixed. And, yes, metrics can be devised to normalize and approximate defense independent pitching, but I have not yet seen one that could estimate the madness of the Twins' 2014 OF (what is the range factor of a bucket?)

 
This actually makes me more hopeful, because it seems like the Twins are doing an effort to address some things. So, what do you say?
 

Almost exactly 11 months ago, Mitch Garver arrived in Cedar Rapids to get started on his first full season of professional baseball in the Minnesota Twins organization. This spring, he’s a big league catcher – for now, anyway.
 
Garver, the Twins’ ninth round draft choice in 2013 out of New Mexico, spent all of last season with the Cedar Rapids Kernels, not only playing a leadership role behind the plate but at the plate, as well. He hit .298, led Cedar Rapids with 79 RBI and was voted the Midwest League’s post-season all-star catcher.
 
Garver reported to the Twins’ spring training facility in Fort Myers, Florida, with the other Twins major league pitchers and catchers in February and he’s been putting on a big league uniform every day since.
 
(This article was originally published at Knuckelballsblog.com.)
 
Major League teams invite a limited number of their minor league catchers to big league camp every spring in order to have enough catchers to handle catching duties for all of the pitchers that need to work out their kinks during the first four weeks or so of spring training and Garver got one of those coveted invitations to big league camp this year. (Tyler Grimes, who caught for the 2013 Kernels, also is getting a taste of big league life with the Twins this spring.)
 
On Friday, Garver talked about his experience this spring in the Minnesota Twins’ major league camp.
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Mitch Garver (photo: Minnesota Twins)

After Garver and the Kernels wrapped up their 2014 season back in September, he spent a little time in Minnesota and Florida getting checked out physically, including a CT scan due to late season concussion issues.
 
“No issues there, everything came back clean,” Garver assured. “It was just an experience for me to make sure everything was OK. I got to see Target Field and everything around there. They wanted to make sure I was healthy enough to go back to Albuquerque to work out, so I was in (fall instructional league in Fort Myers) for a month to kind of iron some things out.”
 
Garver split the next couple of months between time with his fiancé in Corvallis, Oregon, and with his family in New Mexico.
 
It was while in New Mexico that he woke up one morning, about a week before Christmas, to find he had a missed call on his phone.
 
“It was at like eight or nine in the morning and I didn’t know what the number was,” Garver recalled. “So I called it back.”
 
It was a good decision. The call turned out to have been from Twins General Manager Terry Ryan.
 
“He asked me how my health was and made sure everything was good with my hips and with my brain and everything. I told him I was doing great, having a great offseason. Then he invited me to spring training.” That’s major league spring training, with the big league Twins.
 
“It was really exciting. Very cool,” added Garver.
 
Garver has been in camp since February 20 and, as you might expect, walking in to a big league clubhouse as a player for the first time was special.
 
“It’s very different because you walk in and you find your locker and you turn around and there’s five clubhouse guys behind you. Five clubbies, asking you if there’s anything you need, anything they can do for you at that moment in time. You’re just being bombarded with love, it seems like. It’s a cool experience. It’s just fun to be here.”
 
He’s not just there for the cool experience, of course. Garver is there to work. He’s rooming with fellow Twins catching prospect Stuart Turner at the new baseball academy that the Twins have built on-site at their complex in Fort Myers.and, according to Garver, their days get off to a pretty early start.
 
“I wake up at 6:30, we leave the academy about 6:40 and get over to the field. I like to get there a little bit early. They have breakfast for us over there in the new, renovated locker room and kitchen. And the weight room is right there as well. Sometimes you work out in the morning, sometimes you go hit in the morning or you do both.
 
“And then team meetings around 9:00. After that, we head out to different fields and do PFPs (pitchers’ fielding practice), bullpens, live batting practice, baserunning, bunt defense. There’s a defensive station every day. So either we’re catching bullpens or we’re doing something catching-related. For that particular day, it could be blocking or the next day it could be catching pop flies or anything like that. But most of the time, it’s bullpens and we get all of our work in during the bullpens.
 
“When it’s all said and done, it’s probably around 1:00 or 2:00 in the afternoon and you go have lunch and then you call it a day.”
 
The time Garver and other young players get on the field with major league players and coaching staff is valuable, of course, but it’s not the only aspect his first big league spring training that Garver is taking advantage of.
 
“It’s nice to get to know these guys (the major leaguers). You kind of want to get associated with them and learn what kind of people they are off the field, because you already know what they can do on the field. It’s fun to talk with them and converse about different things, finding out where people are from and all of these different stories they have, baseball related or not.
 
“Torii Hunter has some really different stories about everything. It’s fun to listen to him talk. It’s just a good experience overall.”
 
The experience also has made Garver even more aware of just how close he could be to realizing his dreams of being a major league ballplayer.
 
“It’s surreal. You’re playing with superstars and if you put it in perspective, you’re not that far off,” Garver observed. “Just a hop, skip and a jump away from being in the big leagues, whatever level you’re at.”
 
Garver got his first taste of big league game experience on Thursday night, as a pinch hitter, in the Twins first spring training game. It was memorable on multiple levels for Garver.
 
“I was sitting in the dugout (Thursday) night and we were playing the Boston Red Sox. People that I’ve only ever seen on TV, or only ever imagined playing against are in the other dugout,” he recounted.
 
“And in the other dugout is one of my best friends from Albuquerque, Blake Swihart. He’s one of the best catching prospects in the game and it’s just surreal seeing him over there. Then he’s catching when I’m batting and I’m facing a big leaguer (Boston reliever Matt Barnes). It’s kind of weird to think about it, but it’s right there in front of me. I’ve just gotta go get it.”
 
As exciting as the experience has been and continues to be, Garver is realistic and knows his time in the major league clubhouse is going to come to an end (for this season, anyway) shortly.
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Mitch Garver as a Kernel

Minor leaguers begin reporting to spring training in a few days and eventually Garver will be joining them at the minor league complex across the parking lot from the Twins’ big league facility.
 
Garver is OK with that.
 
“Yeah, it’s coming. I know it is. Everybody knows it is. I think the 15th will be our last day and the 16th is the day we’re sent back.
 
“But you know what, that’s fine with me,” said Garver, in a tone of voice that certainly sounded genuine.
 
“I’ve come, I’ve seen, I’ve learned a lot of things thus far. And I think being sent down to the minor leagues is going to be a good thing because I’ll get to play every day. I can prepare myself for the season, as opposed to helping major leaguers prepare for their season, because I’m just kind of helping out right now.”
 
Asked whether he’d like to add a couple of points to his batting average in 2015, to get it up to the magic .300 mark, Garver laughed and said that was, indeed, one his goals. But then that’s not new.
 
“I want to hit .300, I want to make the All-Star team and I want to have the most RBIs on the team. There you go. Those are my goals. The same as last year and the year before.”

My friend asked Terry to handicap CF at Twinsfest. He did not mention Hicks at all. The first name he mentioned was Eddie Rosario. When asked about CF versus a corner, Terry said Eddie is definitely good enough to play CF.
 
He seemed to hint again, at Sano in the OF if Plouffe continues to improve
 
Open to Meyer in the pen. Said last year he was throwing instead of pitching, which caused his location issues.
 
One prospect he thought would make a huge jump is Kohl Stewart. Seemed very high on him.
 
He kept saying Ricky gets a do-over and needs to get straightened out

It's hard to argue with the breakout season Jose Berrios put together in 2014. He dominated the Florida State League and held his own in the Eastern League while being over four and a half years younger than the average age of the pitchers in that league. He was already a top ten prospect in the organization but he solidified himself as one of the top three pitchers in a loaded farm system.
 
Berrios was just one of the team's prospects to do well in 2014 as other prospects also put their name on the map. Adam Brett Walker smacked a ton of home runs in the tough Florida State League. Eddie Rosario missed time at the beginning of the season due to a drug suspension but he ended the season on a high note as one of the best hitters in the Arizona Fall League. There were many other prospects that had solid seasons in
 
Here are three of the Twins top prospects that I think could follow in the footsteps of Berrios and have a breakout season in 2015.
 
Stephen Gonsalves- LHP
2014 Team(s): Elizabethton Twins, Cedar Rapids Kernels
3.02 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 65.2 IP, 70 K, 21 BB (14 Games)
Gonsalves, a 2013 fourth round pick, made it all the way to Low-A this season as a teenager. He continues to show the ability to strikeout batters. He can hit in the 90's with his fastball and he can counter with a good change-up. His other breaking pitch still needs some work but he will be able to develop that as he progresses through the system. In his first five outings at Low-A, he posted a 1.57 ERA over 23.0 innings with 21 strikeouts and only four walks. To put those numbers in prospective, he was three years younger than the other pitchers in the Midwest League.
 
Travis Harrison- OF/3B
2014 Team(s): Fort Myers Miracle
.269/.361/.365, 3 HR, 33 2B, 59 RBI, 80 R (129 Games)
The Florida State League can be tough on hitters and this could be one of the reasons Harrison's home run total dipped from 15 in '13 to 3 this past season. The former supplemental first round pick continues to get on base at a very high rate and he's shown the ability to take the ball to opposite field. His strikeout rate continues to drop and he played a new defensive position this season. He will be 22-years old for all of next season and he should be more comfortable playing his defensive spot. This could mean result in some big numbers for Harrison at Double-A.
 
SLEEPER PICK:
Amaurys Minier- OF/1B
2014 Team(s): GCL Twins
.292/.405/.520, 8 HR, 11 2B, 33 RBI, 25 R (53 Games)
It can be tough to have a breakout season in the lower levels of the minor leagues but the Twins have seen players like Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano have huge seasons after coming out of extended spring training. Minier has big power from the left-side but there might be some holes in his swing as evident by his 52 strikeouts this season. If his approach can improve as he moves up the ladder and he makes some positive strides on the defensive side of the ball, he could be vaulting up Twins prospect lists during the next off-season.
 
For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

As the finishing touches are being put on the 2015 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook (CLICK HERE to order last year's version for 30% off), my mind has been focused on many of the young players that are making up one of the strongest farm systems in baseball. There are a lot of big names like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano in the system and the hope is that those players turn out to be All-Star caliber players for years to come.
 
There are also players that might not end up being in contention for any MVP or Cy Young awards but they could be very important everyday players on the next winning baseball team in Minnesota. Every prospect isn't going to make it as a big league player and some of the Twins best prospects are still multiple years away from making their debut.
 
Here is a look at what type of line-up and pitching rotation could be made from just the prospects in the Twins organization. For the purposes of this post, I didn't consider any players that had already reached their rookie eligibility threshold in 2014. This took away players like Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana, and Kennys Vargas that will figure into the long-term plans for the Twins organization.
 
All Prospect Twins Team Line-Up/Batting Order
1. Nick Gordon- SS
2. Eddie Rosario- LF
3. Byron Buxton- CF
4. Miguel Sano- 3B
5. Travis Harrison- DH
6. Amaurys Minier- 1B
7. Max Kepler- RF
8. Stuart Turner- C
9. Jorge Polanco- 2B
 
This line-up looks pretty solid from top to bottom. Gordon, Rosario and Buxton would give the front end of the batting order some speed and plenty of on-base ability in front of the big boppers. Sano, Harrison, and Minier would have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs and all three have the potential to hit 25 or more home runs in a season. Kepler would provide solid defense and be a very solid regular player. Turner could be an everyday player with the potential to make an All-Star team if things break the right way. Polanco might not have the defensive skills to stick at shortstop but he could make a nice double-play combo with Gordon. He'd also be a solid number nine hitter leading back to the top of the order.
 
Bench
Adam Brett Walker- OF
Niko Goodrum-IF
Levi Michael-IF
Mitch Garver-C
 
This bench offers a little bit of everything. Goodrum and Michael have the ability to fill-in at multiple infield positions while also being good options as late-inning pinch runners. Garver and Turner would be a very good catching duo with both getting the opportunities to start. Walker would be a huge bat off the bench with the potential to hit a long ball anytime he stepped into the box. He could also fill-in as a corner outfielder when other players needed an off day.
 
Starting Rotation
1. Kohl Stewart-RHP
2. Jose Berrios- RHP
3. Alex Meyer- RHP
4. Lewis Thorpe- LHP
5. Stephen Gonsalves- LHP
 
A starting rotation with Stewart, Berrios, and Meyer at the top is what Twins fans have been dreaming of since Stewart was taken with the fourth pick in the 2013 draft. Berrios is coming off a breakout season across the three highest levels in the Twins system. Meyer is on the cusp of making his debut and he continues to be impressive. Thorpe and Gonsalves would offer some left-handed action to the back-end of the rotation while still having the potential to be front of the line starters. There's a chance for a lot of strikeouts with this fearsome five-some but the bullpen is where things get even scarier.
 
Bullpen
Closer: Nick Burdi-RHP
Set-Up: Michael Cederoth- RHP
Jake Reed-RHP
Zack Jones-RHP
Trevor May- RHP
Taylor Rogers- LHP
Mason Melotakis- LHP
 
The Kansas City Royals rode a terrific trio of late-inning relief arms to the 2014 American League Pennant. In the last few drafts, the Twins have been going after some hard throwing college arms to build their own dominant relief core of the future. Burdi, Cederoth, Reed, and Jones could each be given an inning of their own late in games and this would mean starters would only need to pitch five frames. If May doesn't work out as a starter, he could fill into a long-relief role. Rogers and Melotakis could be solid options for retiring some of the best left-handed bats from the opposition.
 
Overall, there is a ton of talent on the way to Target Field. All of these players wouldn't make it to the big leagues but the Twins have a lot invested in some of these players. There are multiple first round picks on this roster, a handful of the top 100 prospects in baseball, and a solid core of players to make Twins fans forget about the last four years of losing.
 
 
Now it's your turn. How would your line-up and roster look for the Twins team of the future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
 
For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com