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nytwinsfan

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Everything posted by nytwinsfan

  1. nytwinsfan
    Agreed, a .260 batting average is acceptable, but it would also drop his OBP .40 points and his slugging like .60 or .80 or something. And given his current BABIP, if his BABIP were to come down to a still pretty high .350, that would probably drop him closer to .250 or .240. All that being said, if you read what I said, I'm clearly not "worried" about his BABIP. I am just pointing out that his current production (which is top 5 hitter in baseball level) is not sustainable with his current BABIP. I just don't want some people to filp out when he likely ends the year at around a .255/.370/.500 hitter, which is obviously still fantastic. I know most people won't, but some will. It is good to know what to reasonably expect.
  2. nytwinsfan
    Uggh, this again. It continues to pop up again and again, and has been since he was drafted. Claims that he was not throwing his breaking stuff because he was working on his fastball command. I thought this was thoroughly debunked. I was assured over and over again that that was not true, or very very overstated. But yet here it is again. Bernandino would do well to say who "official[ly]" gave him this "word." Otherwise I will continue to assume it is a load of bull****.
  3. nytwinsfan
    Hate to be the downer on this delightful morning after quite the show, but Sano's BABIP is sitting at an unsustainable .419 right now. He is going to need to reduce his strikeouts a bit if he is going to keep up anywhere near this level of production. I only mention this because nobody else has. All of that being said, he is barely 22, just coming off a full year of injury, and visually is taking fantastic at bats with excellent strike zone judgment. I have little doubt he will make adjustments and improve his K rate. I also think his batted ball profile, which so far has been heavily line drives and fly balls, is probably built for a higher BABIP than the average player, but there is no way it remains above .400 or in the high .300s in the long-run.
  4. nytwinsfan
    Buxton must hit well enough to be a starter, agreed. I know you are skeptical he will, due to some extremely high baseline skepticism of prospects, but I am not. In any event, if he hits enough to be a starter in the lineup, then the decision of who should play CF should be based solely on defense. That is all I was saying. If you disagree with that, I don't know what to tell you.
  5. nytwinsfan
    I agree with those for this season. But if Buxton plays defense like we know he can this September, I think you move him to CF. The decision on whether Hicks or Buxton plays CF should be based solely on their defense. They are both going to be in the lineup next season anyway.
  6. nytwinsfan
    Ok ok Brock, you (or rather Aaron Hicks) earned this I Told You So. Fair enough. I'm thrilled to see him crush a right-hander, but just keep in mind, one game-- even one this good, doesn't make him a major-league caliber left-handed hitter. A .678 OPS against RHP is fine for a plus-defender CF, but it won't cut it long-term as a corner outfielder, which we all know is where Hicks will be playing when Buxton "arrives" for real. That being said, as you note, hopefully this is the continuation of a trend that will be ongoing, in which case fantastic. If he can hit .700-.750 OPS again RHP then with his plus defense (especially for a corner) and his absolute obliteration of LHP, he can definitely be a huge asset in a corner spot. Then it comes down to whether you want Rosario or Kepler as your LF. I think that depends on whether you are going to have space to play Kepler at 1B and DH somewhat regularly, in which case I think you make Rosario your primary left fielder. But with Sano at DH (unless Plouffe is traded) and Mauer, Arcia, and Vargas all options at DH/1B, I don't see that happening. So then what do you do with those four outfielders? Trade one? Semi-platooon them with Hicks sitting only against the best RHP? I'm not sure. But it sure is a fun problem to have.
  7. nytwinsfan
    Ok, that's pretty reasonable and I mostly agree. The only place I might disagree, which Gleeman point's out, is that if we are going to have a logjam at some point next year, the time to trade Plouffe might be this winter, not next spring. Because Plouffe might be at the height of his value now, it might be tougher to trade him for as much value in May or June when teams have already set their rosters, and because it might be tough to switch Sano from DH to 3B midseason. And whether or not Plouffe is with the team will help moot any future logjam, since Kepler and/or Arcia could partly or fully shift to 1B/DH if Plouffe leaves, leaving an extra spot in the 3B/DH/1B trifecta.
  8. nytwinsfan
    Yes, really. You really can't imagine Hunter not being gone is even a discussion? Have you met Terry Ryan? I agree that we shouldn't re-sign him, I'm just not so sure Ryan would never do it. The possibility of Hunter being back is one that has to be considered, whether we like it or not. But even aside from Hunter, Arcia and Kepler are both in the picture for next year, so that is at least five potential outfielders, all of whom are potentially starting quality. And the Twins don't like to platoon or keep young non-everyday players on the 25-man roster. So that is the reason Gleeman and Bonnes raised the logjam. You can say there shouldn't be a logjam if the Twins had better management, but I think there clearly is going to be a logjam under current management, unless someone or someone(s) are traded, or Arcia, Hunter, and/or Kepler are moved to different positions and others moved to make room for them there. Thus I think it is a very legitimate topic to discuss.
  9. nytwinsfan
    Sorry Bonnes, but I completely agree with Gleeman about playing Buxton (or Kepler) instead of Shane Robinson. I also agree about Hicks and Rosario not needing to play every day so that Buxton can play 4-5 times a week. I don't think Rosario and Hicks sitting once a week will hurt their development. 8 ABs a week from Shane Robinson is a pretty big deal. It really is.
  10. nytwinsfan
    Why not Trevor Plouffe and a guy ranked in the Twins 20s for KP of the Mets? How about keeping out future outfield intact? I agree with USAFChief though, if we have to trade one, it would probably be Rosario.
  11. nytwinsfan
    We obviously need a catcher, and preferably one that is younger than 28 or 29 so that that the inevitable accelerated decay of being an aging catcher does not make them terrible within a few years. I'd try to find a trading partner for Plouffe that would give us a younger catcher with some upside and a few years of team control. We don't need to get the next Buster Posey. Just someone who has a .700 OPS or better, with a decent arm and defense. That is actually surprisingly difficult to get these days, and it may take Plouffe + more to get it.
  12. nytwinsfan
    Maybe as a bench coach. Otherwise no way.
  13. nytwinsfan
    I more or less agree, but they can't do that now because Plouffe won't clear waivers. Unless a team claims him that happens to have and be willing to offer a good return for Plouffe (which is unlikely), this will have to wait until the Winter Meetings, assuming Ryan is looking to trade Plouffe at all.
  14. nytwinsfan
    I agree with this up and until the RF part. Sano can play outfield in a pinch, sure, but it just doesn't maximize his value (in fact it minimizes it). It makes more sense to have him at 3B if we trade Plouffe, DH, or 1B. The Twins have too many possible plus defenders who can also hit well in the outfield pipeline. If we really want Vargas to be an everyday player, then either Plouffe will need to be traded or Mauer will need to move off 1B.
  15. nytwinsfan
    Do you think that if Mauer continues to struggle, or even declines further that at some point, even if it is not until the heat of the pennant race in 2017, Terry Ryan and/or Molitor will make him primarily a pinch hitter/bench bat? I know we don't like to think about that scenario, and I would be thrilled if Mauer had a .800 or even .750 OPS from here on out, but we have to consider the possibility that he is a .700 OPS first baseman for the rest of his career. At some point if a struggling Mauer at 1B is one of the Twins' biggest weaknesses, you would think that the pressure to win would overcome the loyalty that the team has to him. I know we don't have to face this decision right now, but it could be coming sooner than is widely acknowledged. Note, I'm not a "Mauer basher," and would love nothing more than for the old Mauer to reemerge. I'm just trying to be realistic and look down the road at a real possible scenario.
  16. nytwinsfan
    Do you agree that fans (including Twins fans) overvalue Home Runs? I'm not talking aesthetically, in which case nearly everyone obviously values them tremendously. Obviously a HR is worth more than a double or a triple, but it seems like sometimes when we talk "power" we obsess over HRs and HRs alone. With a couple of guys like Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, and maybe Kepler and Polanco coming up who hit a lot of doubles and triples but not necessarily a ton of HR, in order to avoid future annoying complaints about these players' purported "lack of power" it might be helpful to explain to/remind fans that two doubles is actually more valuable than a HR, and three triples are actually more valuable than 2 HR (see wOBA: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/woba/)
  17. nytwinsfan
    You can say you don't think that minor league stats have much correlation with major league stats and you don't consider them very relevant. And you can say that WAR isn't an important or relevant stat. And you can say that doubles and triples don't count as "power." You can even ignore the tremendous amount of value that Rosario and Hicks have provided on both sides of the ball in limited playing time this year. I don't have much to say to you then, since I think we see the game incredibly differently. We may as well be watching different sports.
  18. nytwinsfan
    First of all, all three have power (as does Kepler who should also be included in that list), just a lot of it is in doubles and triples. They also provide defense. Look at KC to see how that kind of outfield works. So far the Royals outfielders have hit approximately 30 HR combined, but yet they have provided about 10 WAR, which is fantastic for 2/3 of the way through a season. If we could get that kind of output out of Rosario/Buxton/Hicks/Kepler (which I think we can) it would be absolutely huge and give us one of the best outfields in baseball. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=150&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=7&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 BTW, note the Royals are the best outfield in defense by WAR right now, and that is while missing Alex Gordon for a while. Shows just how little HR power is required to have a great outfield. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
  19. nytwinsfan
    Completely agree. In terms of order from worst to best bet, I would put them as Nolasco, Santana, Hughes. I still have hope for the latter two. Get Hughes' arm some time off and give Santana some time to get rid of the rust before we judge.
  20. nytwinsfan
    Yeah, but his peripherals had also improved, as represented by FIP. It wasn't like if his ERA had just improved, or if a hitter's BABIP and thus average had improved. Of course there is still a lot of risk it is an outlier, but there was legitimate reason to think he might have improved as a pitcher.
  21. nytwinsfan
    You are right, of course. But Terry Ryan either doesn't understand what a "sunk cost" is, or more likely, doesn't want to admit that the Twins "franchise player" is a former shell of himself and unlikely to ever return to his former self. If in another week or two if the Twins haven't bounced back, I'd send Mauer to AAA for the rest of the year and call up Kepler and/or Vargas to play 1B. I'd give Mauer another shot next year of course, after all, the concussion symptoms could start to dissipate as they eventually did with Morneau while he was in Colorado. But if he doesn't bounce back quickly early next year, I'd send him back to AAA again. But again, none of that is likely to happen, no matter how "economically rational," it is.
  22. nytwinsfan
    If things don't bounce back quickly for the Twins in the next week or two (which is likely), why not shut him down for the rest of the year. Next year we need 2014 Phil Hughes, or at least something closer to 2014 Phil Hughes. He pitched a lot of innings last year. Let's try out Taylor Rodgers, Duffy, and Berrios. Let's see what we've got.
  23. nytwinsfan
    Garver us heating up, hitting .257/.381/.514 (.895). his last 10 games. Even since June 1, Garver has been hitting .285/.390/.401(.791). Overall for the season, in the pitcher-friendly Fort Myers (as Shane Wahl noted) he is hitting .246/.361/.327(.688). That is a very respectable OBP for a catcher in any league, but the SLG. still needs to improve.
  24. nytwinsfan
    Kepler continues to put up video game numbers. In his last 10 games he is hitting .361/.467/.806 (1.272) with 4 HR, 3 SB, 0 CS, and an 8/8 K/BB ratio. His line at Chattanooga for the season is now at .334/.419/.554(.973). Can he break 1.000 OPS?!?
  25. nytwinsfan
    Gordon is really on a tear. He's hitting .368/.405/.526(.931) in his last 10 games and .318/.374/.418(.792) since June 1st. Overall his numbers are 277/.341/.354(.695). I think this kid is going to be really good. We just need to be patient.
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