DocBauer

When we were in the Metrodome, there were debates as to which corner OF was the most important and hardest to play. RF had the Baggie, but offered shorter routes and less area to cover, while a strong arm in RF is generally coveted. But the consensus, as I remember it, was that LF, despite a reputation, generally speaking, of being a less key defensive position, had more area to cover in the dome. I know the dimensions of Target Field somewhat approximate the old dome, but it's still a different stadium, and outdoors as well. I wonder, with his strong arm but still developing skills, is it better to keep Arcia in RF or put him in LF now?

A few thoughts to contribute: I take defensive ratings with a grain of salt, and always have. The reason being, no matter what metric you use, IMHO, it can be skewed. Over the years, I've seen teams rank at or near the top of league standings in defense, but it was due to errors and fielding percentage, meaning players didn't make as many mistakes. Meanwhile, teams ranked lower "seemed" better defensively due to more athletic players with more range getting to more balls, even making more spectacular plays, but sometimes making more errors while attempting more difficult plays that others couldn't even attempt. I fell that sometimes, defense is more of an eye test, and not always measurable accurately. That being said, I think it's clear the eye test didn't favor the Twins OF this year. I think Santana has done a tremendous job considering he was an Inf tossed in to CF with very little experience. He got better, and can still get better, but long term he seems to be a true SS, or at worst, a LF candidate who can move around. He has the athletic skill set for SS, and I hope he gets the teaching and experience there to, hopefully, improve himself. Good and great ML SS don't just happen overnight. Putting a quality defensive OF in one of the corner OF spots would be huge as opposed to BOTH Willingham and Arcia out there, as we had the past couple of seasons. I don't know that signing a temp CF is the answer or not. It could definitely help! But even if Hicks smooths a couple things out, and can hit well enough to contribute, simply being a more natural and experienced CF would have to be an improvement, would it not? (At least until Buxton arrives) I think Arcia has improved his defense. I think the skills are there to get even better with time and work. I think his biggest problem, as someone pointed out, is running toward CF. I'd rather see a deeper angle used and just get in front of the ball instead of going for the big catch. Strikeouts are great! But they are not a solution. You could rank amongst lead leaders in SO's but still allow way too many hard line drives. Just better, more consistent pitching could help the OF defense as much as better pure defensive players. Three stiffs playing moderately deep could do a solid job with high, even deep, fly balls and "cans of corn" vs. rocket shots to the gaps.

In response: 1) It actually happens when the team comes to the realization they have hit the peak, crossed over to the other side, and there is no "maintaining" the current state of affairs. For most teams, it usually happens at least one season too late. Witness the 2011 Twins. Honestly, if your team won 94 games, and a division title as they did in 2010, and had most of the core of that team back the next season, would you expect that team to have massive injuries and disappointments that would lead to a 90+ loss season the next year? I think not. Call it short-sighted, naïveté or stubborness, but the mistake was not realizing it was time in 2012 to begin. Or perhaps...could it be the FO simply realized they were a couple years away from rectifying the situation and just took shots at patchwork hoping for the best? 2) How long should it take? If your organization has smart baseball people in place...and avoiding easy pot shots at several perennially struggling teams...I'd say 3-5 years. There are two obvious organizational factors: 1) How is the talent in your system? Up or down? Low or high minors? 2) What age are the core players on your parent club? If you stumble and rebuild with several players on the roster still in or approaching their prime, it can be shorter. If you have a team of older players, or suddenly expensive players at or near 30, which happened to the Twins, it can take longer. 3) How far along are the Twins? Surprisingly close! I am not predicting a World Series run in 2016 to be sure. But when you talk about a talented roster than can compete for a winning record and possible playoff run, yes, it could happen then. There is no question that the interruption for Meyer's development in 2013, and the lost seasons for Buxton and Sano set the timetable back. What team wouldn't be affected by their top three prospects being slowed? No-one can predict sudden all-star caliber performances for any young player, but before 2015 is over and done, the Twins will employ the talented likes of Dozier, Santana, Vargas, Sano, Buxton, Gibson, May, Meyer, possibly Berrios and Polanco with more established players like Plouffe, Mauer, Suzuki, Hughes, Nolasco, etc. We might even see Hicks and Pinto begin to establish themselves. I hesitate to name names or make predictions, but there are a few bullpen options that could be very quick risers in 2015. History states at least a couple players listed won't turn out, or will fall short of expectation. And there could certainly be a trade or two, a FA signing or two, that will augment the listed roster options. So again....close.

As to the "Dougie Baseball" nickname, it surely comes from his successful background, as well as his reputation as a "gamer". But I also think it sticks because people just don't want to type, or have forgotten how to spell, Mientkiewicz. Lol

I think Molitor could probably be a fine manager. And I think he's proven to be a fine milb instructor and ML coach. However, while I am by no means suggesting he is "old", I think I'd prefer someone a little younger to grow with the new wave and stick with them. And I won't speak for Molitor, but I always thought I remembered him wanting to be an instructor initially and not confined to a ML traveling schedule. And now, I don't know, maybe he's just more content being a coach at this time instead of being "the man". I don't know if Mientkiewicz or Mauer is the next Twins manager, though I think both are talented potentials. And I do think guys like Watkins, and there are others, just might be really strong coaching candidates. One common theme I feel is prevalent from all accounts I come across is that I think the Twins organization has a lot of really good communicators in their system. Glynn I think would make a nice coach for the parent club. And he has done a nice job for Rochester, and has a really nice resume. Again, I wonder at his age vs a longer term solution. Is it time for a change? I admit I'm still on the fence. I can see real and honest reasons for both sides of the arguement. If the move does take place, I think we have a couple interesting and strong candidates. And I'm sure they would put their own stamp on their coaching staff. I'd like to think at least a few members of the current staff would stick around.

I really like this part of the conversation being brought up. And I don't say this because I advocate or nominate Ullger as the next manager. I like it because I do get a bit tired of sniping at the Twins coaching staff in general. The results the past, almost, 4 seasons has been terribly frustrating and disappointing. But most of the current staff lead the team to winning year after winning year and playoff appearance after playoff appearance. I am not excusing the past four years, just stating a fact that if you look at the men making up the Twins staff, they are good baseball men with quality resumes. Is it time for some more change? Yes, possibly it is time. But I feel it is a bit disingenuous to blast the Twins for staying within the system, but then praise all the possible coaching and management candidates that exist within the system.

I also watched and mostly listened to the Twins since the very early 70's and still remember a lot of those teams and players on them, though records are lost on me. Naturally, I've been through the 80's and 90's and every year until the here and now. Been through some very lean times as well as some very good ones. I've seen many different "cycles" of losing and winning teams. I think we're on an uptick begining with this season. I really do. Despite a much poorer second half than I was expecting, this team has at least been competitive, unlike a lot of games played the previous three years. Some of the bullpen blown games lately have put me in a bit of a funk, I admit. But I'm still enjoying Santana, Vargas, and the great run Arcia is on. Despite pretty much the same final results, Hughes and Gibson have me excited for the rotation, and it's really nice to May slowly coming around and getting his legs under him. There is work to do, to be sure, but I'm feeling a lot better at the close of this season that I have the past few. If we can avoid another run of injuries, and deep regression, how much fun could 2015 be with Meyer, Berrios, Buxton, Sano all...probably...making appearances at some point. I'm a little uncertain if Tonkin, Oliveras, Achter and a few others are going to be ready for major roles soon. But just look at some of the pen candidates that could be pushing around mid-year or second half. Man, THIS is what gets me excited, and makes another disappointing season hurt less.

With apologies and respect to Willihammer, I was working on this article earlier today but didn't have time to post yet. But where he focused more on this year's pen, I really wanted to concentrate on where the Twins are headed. Hence, I decided to go ahead and post my topic thread. I had made a point in another thread that since 1987, through TK and Dick Such, to Gardenhire and Anderson now, and through 2 1/2 GM's, (point made is obvious), the one thing you could always count on was a solid Twins bullpen. Even in down years in the late 90's, and the last couple seasons, the Twins, year to year, have always had a versatile and dependable pen that at worst, ranked middle of the pack. We've had closers we acquired such as Reardon and Aggie and Nathan, and closers developed through the system like Every Day Eddie, Hawkins Trombley and Perkins. In fact, since 1987 to now, 27 years, the Twins have employed a solid closer, almost always with All Star credentials, with the possible exception of Matt Capps, and he was very good for us when healthy. Some of our closers began as successful setup men first. Some came the FA route, seemingly out of nowhere at times, such as Berenguer and Willis as just a couple examples. Burton came off the scrap heap for one excellent season, and one solid season. There are a slew of long and middle men, some signees, some brought up through the system, that have provided quality and dependable work for the Twins bullpen over the past 27 years. Some are names we might not even remember. Tony Fiore? Who? 2014 has been a fun, interesting, frustrating and disappointing season all wrapped up in one. We've been teased with a potential .500 level club that couldn't maintain, and has been a true enigma as we have enjoyed some good to truly excellent seasons overall by the likes of Hughes, Gibson, Santana, Suzuki, Plouffe and Dozier. But the sum of those and other decent parts, combined with injury and disappointing seasons has lead to yet another potential 90 loss season. We have debated where Santana should play, if and when May and Meyer should be promoted, LF and CF in 2015, and if the Twins could/should/will make one more FA splash for the rotation. But for the first time in a while, I think we have to seriously look at the bullpen going forward. Perkins is in his early 30's, but healthy, experienced, and still capable for another few seasons in his closer role, where limited exposure tends to keep velocity up later in a career. Fien has been a real find for the Twins and has performed at a pretty high level since day one. Personally, from my observations, I believe he is a quality 6th-7th inning guy who can occasionally pitch the 8th when needed. But not consistently, and I don't like him in the occasional closer role. So where do we go from there? Burton is toast. As much as some clamor for another SP, doesn't the bullpen need another proven power arm to join Perk in the pen? I've been a Duensing supporter for some now, sometimes in the face of opposition, and have found his relief numbers and history to be very solid. But this was definitely not his best season, after a quality first half. I don't know if Thielbar can ever be anything remotely special, but despite numbers down from 2013, he's still been solid. Has Swarzak peaked as well? It would appear that there were some really nice options at Rochester to come up and finish the year out, and prepare for a shot at a job next year. And I know it's a small sample size, but Tonkin, Achter, Oliveras and company have shown nothing thus far in September. I think it's naive to expect Zack Jones, Melotakis and Burdi to rise all the way to the Twin Cities out of spring training. But am I wrong? Should we just forget what we've seen in September so far from the promotions? Should we be excited about what they've done this season in the minors, and their potential, along with others like Pryor, Pressly, the afore mentioned Jones, Melotakis and Burdi and be excited for what a 2015 bullpen might look like? Are you bullish or bear on the 2015 bullpen? What do you see happening? What would you do?

I think you have to give credit where credit is due. Despite no Willingham most of the season, supposedly our best and most tried and true power and RBI threat, so-so production from veteran fill in Morales, and an inconsistent Arcia, the team has generally produced a solid offense for most of the season. It's easy to be flippant and say guys like Santana, Vargas, Dozier, Plouffe and even Suzuki should produce as they are, or have been top prospects. Or in the case of Suzuki, an experienced ML who has shown the ability to hit before. But that is being way too simplistic. Being a top prospect and actually producing at a ML level are very different things. And let us not forget unexpected contributions from the likes of Colabello and Fuld earlier in the season, and Schafer now. I think Bruno has generally done a very nice job. One of the best things I feel he's done is try to teach a patient approach at the plate. (Arcia needs to still pay closer attention, but is improving). For most of the season, the Twins have ranked near the top of the league in pitches seen per AB. It's a statistic a lot of people tend to ignore, but even if it doesn't lead to a high OB, it still means working the pitcher to wear out quicker, as well as waiting for a pitch you can truly handle. I think Santana is a prime example. While we'd all like to see him walk more for a higher OB, I have been soooo impressed by his ability to stand in, take and fight off pitches, until he finds something to hit. I think that, more than anything, helps explain his outstanding and lasting success. The problem with being a hitting coach is credit only comes when the statistics seem obvious. A few years ago, Vavra was hailed for a solid job. Then when the offense slipped the next season, everyone thought he was a bum. It's not always obvious what's going on, and where a good job is taking place, but I really like the job Bruno has done.

Cool. Thanks Seth! Kind of what I thought. Was curious if the "consistency" factor might have played a part. Please, anyone and everyone, correct me if I'm wrong, but is it safe to say that Gonsalves and Thorpe, despite their youth and inexperience, are probably the highest upside LHSP's in the organization? But looking at options like Taylor Rogers, Pat Dean, Jason Wheeler, Sean Gilmartin, Matt Tomshaw and Brett Lee, who and how would you/we view them as a stand alone prospect ranking?

Personally, I don't expect Hughes to regress. Could it happen? Of course. And it's not hard these days to be a Twins pessimist. However, he is a former top prospect in all of baseball, has solid stuff, showed real flashes with the Yankees despite an up and down, somewhat to mostly disappointing career there. Is the whole change of scenery the result of probably his best career year? I think there could be a lot of reasons. But with talent, relative youth, and posted results, I just don't expect regression. Gibson is, more or less, a rookie this year, despite his time with the Twins last season. And I say that not because it's his first full season, but due to the interruption in his upward projection, rehab, and a feeling that last season was almost an internship/introduction. I expect him to show greater consistency next season and take another step forward in 2015. We are all HUGELY disappointed in Nolasco's season. But even those who weren't crazy about his signing still felt the Twins got a solid SP overall. As disappointed and frustrated as we've all been with his first season with the Twins, I think it's pre-mature at least, if not foolish, to believe he was a wasted signing and won't rebound to at least career norms next year. As stated previously, the Twins DID make a big push for Garza even after signing Nolasco and Hughes. Again, with the progress of Meyer and May and Berrios, does the organization feel the same earnest need to go out and sign a major SP FA this year? No question it could immediately improve the team. But then what? And I ask honestly. I'd love to see it happen...but...now we have said FA and Nolasco signed for 3-4 years, Hughes another 2, and might be strongly served signing him to an extension if things keep up with him. So what to do with May and Meyer and Berrios? It's easy to just say, "oh, we'll just go trade someone." Maybe. But it's not always easy to do that. Not saying the Twins will or won't, should or shouldn't, just wondering at the overall rebuild plan and how this affects it? Do we really commit 4-6 years and at least 18M if not 20+ to one 30yo veteran? (Lester and Scherzer to be sure) Or do we set our sites a little lower for Shields, Santana and a few others mentioned. They are all 30 or older when next season begins. Not ancient, not cooked, but you could end up overpaying the final year or two.

Love the depth of the list, and that is infinitely more impressive and important than just who had the best season. Way, way too early to even speculate if Gonsalves and Thorpe have #1 or #2 SP potential. But I am a fan of both. Despite weighing youth vs talent and early results and trying to fruitlessly project 2-4 years from now in a foggy crystal ball, I DO think these two are maybe as intriguing an option as Stewart, Berrios, and just about anyone else in the organization. Seth, just curious, Meyer, overall, had a very successful season. His ERA and Whip were better than some, not as quite as good as others on your top 6. His SO's are obviously very impressive. Understanding it's a 2014 "good season" list, and not a top prospect list, what kept him out of your top 6?

I think I generally agree with this. I think his plate discipline in the minors, and even this season at the ML and milb level would indicate he's capable of an even higher OB, especially if he could manage a better overall AVG. I don't think by any stretch he's a finished product yet. Not close. But I agree with previous comments that his appearance at the plate seems more relaxed and confident. If that continues, he might just turn the page next season, even if he doesn't turn to a completely different chapter. And as has been pointed out, he has shown a tendency, much like Hunter, the man he's often been compared to, to take a year to adjust to a level. If we actually could see the development next season, I'd love to see him sandwiched between Santana and Mauer. I am a big Dozier fan, and I still don't think we've seen the best of him yet. And I think playing almost every day, and so much pressure to produce without a consistent hitter behind him, has affected him the second half of the season. Healthy, not tired or overburdened I think he offers real danger for the opposition at the top of the order. But part of me would really like to his power, speed and solid OB in the heart of the order to knock guys in, as well as begin rallies.

This! Almost. Every single time I try to lay out the position players for the "start" of 2015 I end up with 14 position players. At some point...July 1st?, August 1st?, September 1st?...I see Sano and Buxton making a move. I keep seeing almost everything you do, except, I still see the team signing one quality OF option to provide a quality, veteran, productive bat. That means Parmelee or the surprising Shafer is on the outs. And while I hate to say it, Parms is probably the guy on the outs. I also like Nunez as a really nice and under appreciated bench player. In regards to Pinto...the Twins have to refrain from being stupid. What? Suzuki has real value, and I was in favor of his signing. But you also can't ignore a talented young player right in front of you.

Actually, your thoughts for a 13 player position player roster is just about exactly how my mind plays it out. I keep coming up with a 14 man roster list because I keep including Parmelee in my head. I may be stubborn, or just foolish, but I just keep seeing "just enough" from him at times when he's given a shot, that I want to include him as a possible. I think people sleep in regard to Nunez. As a nice, versatile player with a solid bat and equipped with some power and position flexibility, I like him. I'd like the Twins to work him more next ST in the OF. Not as an option, but as a fill in. Escobar has done NOTHING to lose his spot as a starter, except being born with less overall talent than someone like Santana. Santana offers even more offense, and even more range and "potential" as a defensive player. And I know the "P" word can be a nasty one, and I don't want to take anything away from what Escobar has done and meant to this team...but...I think he might be better used as an almost everyday player, similar to Nunez. I have been advocating for some time for a quality FA LF, 1 year stopgap or 2-3 year player is to be debated. Not sold on Schafer yet. I want to be. I want to see if how he plays CF, though Santana could also fill in, and KNOW he won't hit long term like he has thus far with the Twins. But I am intrigued by what I see and love him on the base paths. Pinto. Suzuki. Here is where the Twins actually have to get smart. Can they do that? I'm not being snarky! But barring some unforeseen injury factor, there is not going to be a great deal of opportunity for AB's in the DH spot. I was, and am, in favor of signing Suzuki. But you would have to be misguided, stubborn, or stupid to not make room for a player with the potential of Pinto. Offense isn't everything, of course, but the kid has worked hard, and continues to work hard, to better himself, and has a strong arm. You simply can't ignore his potential for the sake of the "safe" and experienced veteran player.

You know, Kelly and Such, or Gardy and Anderson, McPhail or Ryan, the Twins have always found a way to put together a solid to very good bullpen. They've also found some real steals over the years. But for whatever reason, this bullpen, despite an OK season, has hit a big wall and been a huge disappointment the past few weeks. I really like what Fien has done since we acquired him, but he is NOT an 8th inning guy who can occasionally close. He's a really solid 6th/7th inning guy who can occassionaly pitch the 8th. I really want to toss the pen spots open to anyone who wore a jersey for a Twins team this year...and there are some awesome candidates on the way...and I believe at least a few of them will make their presence known at some point in 2015...but I think it would be a fool's venture to do so. I think one major BP FA signee for 2015 would go a long way to helping the team.

Personally, I think much ado about nothing. A stupid survey prepared stupidly by someone that the Twins were stupid enough to actually pay for. Big deal. I've spent most of my life in some sort of retail or sales environment. And I've seen THOUSANDS spent on surveys that were similarly ridiculous, or to "consultants" who managed to pull the wool over managements eyes to spend money on what they had to offer. A small, stupid, silly survey that someone made a joke of. Not a big deal in the end. However, here is a really out of the box, off the wall idea. Jim Pohland seems to be firmly behind management to make some changes, and has himself made a few pointed comments at times that would seem to indicate he is not yet satisfied. Is this silly incident...perhaps...additional fuel for the fire of action? Just wondering.

So here we are in September, and for the first time in a couple years, we actually have some prospects to watch in the closing month of the season. Some have spent part of the season with the big league club, Santana and Pinto for example, and some are fresh off the farm like May and Vargas. Despite some bitter bad luck in the minors to many prospects, including top prospects Buxton and Sano, there have still been some wonderful seasons by teams and individual performances from prospects. While there is no perfect list, Baseball America ranked the Twins top 10 prospect as such, coming in to the season: 1). Buxton 2). Sano 3). Meyer 4). Stewart 5). Berrios 6). Rosario 7). Thorpe 8). May 9). Santana 10). Polanco A pretty easy list to make, and pretty universal. I have to imagine, despite talent and potential, Rosario is the one guy to probably take a fall off that list. Others to make top 20 lists include the likes of: Pinto, Kepler, Harrison, Walker, Tonkin, Vargas, Gonsalves, Zack Jones, Felix Jorge, and Ryan Eades. But who has flown under the radar? Who is your surprise prospect? Or, perhaps someone mentioned above has truly surprised you in some way this season? I will offer one of my own to begin, Chad Christensen. Admittedly, I am a Cornhusker and proud of it. So this kid is someone I pay special attention to. But I feel he has had a season worthy of distinction as a surprise. He was a 4 year letterman for the Huskers who began his career as a SS, before moving to the OF before his Jr. season. Injury forced him back to SS early in that season and he earned all Big 10 conference honors and was drafted by the Marlins in the 35th round but returned to school. The next year, back in the OF, he again was all conference selection before being selected by the Twins with their pick in the 25th round. His first season, 2013, with the GCL Twins was nothing if non-descript. But at some point in the off season and ST, he really seemed to find himself and jumped to Cedar Rapids this year where he put up some very solid numbers. He is listed on their roster as a 1B, but I know from box scores and reports...SD could help me out here I'm sure...that he played all across the OF, and I believe I saw some reports of 3B, but can't swear to it. His numbers for the Kernels: 127 G, 492 AB's, 24-7-9 XB#'s, 73 RBI, triple slash of .272/ .339/ .404/ .744 and 30 SB in 35 attempts. Is this a possible multi-positional bench player down the road? Will be interesting to see. Who is your surprise Twins minor league player?

Of course, we could also ask, "will Aaron Hicks have any impact in 2015"? This thought occurred to me the other night when I watched him have a pair of real quality AB's while driving in a pair of clutch RBI in the eventual loss to the Angels. We are all very much of Hick's struggles the past two seasons while up with the Twins. A poor 2013 with some limited progress before injury and demotion. Not much improvement in 2014, but a higher over OB%, and perhaps looking at least a little less overmatched. No need to rehash. However, coming off his 2012 season at AA, the best season of his milb career, he was a top prospect not only in the Twins system, but was ranked as a top 100 prospect in milb by both MILB and Baseball America, though their individual rankings varied with MILB placing him at 15 and BA had him at 72. Still, a top 100 prospect. As a reminder, Hicks' 2012 stats at New Britain: 100 R's, 21-11-13 XB#'s, 61 RBI, and a triple slash of .286/ .384/ .460/ .844 with 32 SB in 43 attempts. Impressive. And a reminder of the player he has been, projected to be, and everyone hoped to be before what appears to be a rushed promotion in 2013. Sent out this season to find himself again, as well as obviously gain confidence, he did the following in the minors: AA: 43 Games, 30R's, 11-1-4 XB#'s, 21 RBI, and a triple slash of .297/ .404/ .466/ .871 AAA: 24 Games, 9R's, 5-0-1 XB#'s, 8 RBI, and a triple slash of .278/ .349/ .389/ .738 Stating the obvious, you'd expect him to perform well at AA in a second go around, if not improve. Well, he did that. While that might not seem impressive, consider that he not only didn't pout and flail about, but actually seemed to accept the challenge. Otherwise, you might have seen very different results. His AAA numbers at Rochester are obviously of a very small sample size. Still, they are solid and productive for the short time he spent there, again, as opposed to pouting or regressing. And I think there is something to be considered for that. Now, unlike last season, he's back up to finish out the season. And I think it's clear he is promised nothing in regard to next season other than an opportunity. And that's probably as it should be. Still, with his raw ability, and what I saw him do the other night, I had to ask myself what impact he might potentially have next year on the club. We still have about 3 weeks to finish out and perform, not to mention all of ST next year. But what if what he showed in the minors is a more confident approach? What if he's solid, not great, but at least solid the last 3 weeks? And if this can carry over to next ST...... What if he could hit anywhere from .240-.260 next season, and with his history of patience, and OB of somewhere in the .320 range plus or so with some power and SB success with at least decent defense? Is he an asset? Is he a potential starter in CF until Buxton, freeing up Santana for more time at SS with, perhaps, occassional duty in CF? Can Hicks have an impact in 2015? And what do you think it would take for that to happen?

Something to further consider when discussing next season's rotation options. It's very easy to simply state the Twins should sign so and so as a front line starter. Assuming there are viable options available, there are various factors to be weighed. I don't have payroll numbers handy at this time, but believe reports had the Twins around 84M this season. I think educated speculation, and even comments made by the Twins themselves, would suggest a 100m payroll wouldn't be out of line. Especially if it got the turnstiles spinning again. With Willingham, KC and Burton gone next season, that's another 16M approximately cut from the payroll. With no other major roster losses, and allowing for a probably 3-5M team wide addition to payroll in raises, you have a net 11M in savings, for a team payroll of approximately 73M. Do the Twins have to spend millions of dollars next off season to improve, (whether it be to 100M or not)? Of course the answer is no. Development of May and Meyer, further development of Gibson and a return to health and normalcy for Nolasco changes the SP situation a great deal, along with further development of the young position players on roster, possibly a smart addition or two, also, possibly, one additional solid veteran to deepen the pen. But does spending some fairly serious money improve the team perhaps quicker? I think that possibility exists strongly, though there is no guarantee. Even after signing Nolasco and Hughes last season, the Twins made a concerted effort to add Garza. Indicating a real desire to spend necessary money to make a move and improve the team. (The Morales signing during the season further exemplifies this) But would they make such a move again this off season? Was the attempted Garza signing due to questions about organization SP depth at the top, most notably May and Meyer? And now that May and Meyer have had the seasons in AAA that they have, does that change the Twins thinking? Should they make the big move, tie up the money needed in years, possibly create a log jam situation, even though it may show overall improvement, perhaps significantly? Or are they better making a few smart moves, nurturing May and Meyer throughout the season, possibly Berrios at some point, and continue building via the youth movement, and maintaining a lower payroll and greater financial flexibility for the future?

Just think for a moment how nice the options for next season sound compared to the past few years? Hughes (still young), Gibson (younger and former top prospect developing nicely), Nolasco (forget this year, healthy he's experienced and solid) Instead of Blackburn, Slowey, Walters, Diamond and others; we have Pelfrey (okokok), Milone (an actual viable ML LH with a positive record), and two top prospects in May and Meyer. Not to mention Berrios possibly ready by the end of 2015. My best guesses? May is part of the rotation. I think at least 1 of the 2 kids is there. It could by Meyer easily, but I'm picking May for now because, well, he's ahead of Meyer right now. He's getting experience similar to what Gibson got last year. And I like Milone better than Pelfrey. He's younger, LH, and won't be "rehab" mode. My gut tells me Pelfrey is in the pen, on the DL, or possibly in EST to begin. And remember, this is to start the year, not what it might by June or July 1st.

OK, I know this isn't wholly accurate over time. Things change. But if, like me, and a few other "old timers" on here, LOL, ...don't hate me for saying that!...you can remember the Twins history back 10...20...even 30 years perhaps. In that time, you've seen a hell of a lot. You've seen 2 owners, multiple managers, and if we ignore Bill Smith's short tenure, only 2 GM's since 1987. Top of my head, right now, I just can't recall GM's before that. In those older days, guys like Oelkers and Viola and Anderson, amongst others, were promoted quickly. More recently were Milton, Radke, Denny Neagle, Erickson and Santana, a rule 5 pick stuck in the pen to keep him. NOT saying the Twins have been overly aggressive in promoting pitchers over the years, but these are a few examples of where it has taken place. I don't know if it's his nature or not, but I think Ryan is conservative by nature. Previously, he made some very aggressive moves with prospects as well as trades. I think when he came back, he was stuck in a cautious mode. His trades for May and Meyer, however, as well as a general philosophy draft change in to drafting power arms, seems to indicate some progression in his approach. We can argue all day long about May and Meyer, but at the end of the day, both of these kids were in their first season of AAA ball. Berrios was progressed aggressively. Despite massive talent, so were Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves and others. I have been a HUGE fan of Berrios since drafted, and have compared him to Pedro Martinez, though in truth he's probably thicker, more muscular, and a better overall athlete. And I've read many times, possibly fairly, where Meyer compares to Randy Johnson in size, ability and potential. I absolutely do not have all the answers, and don't pretend to. Perhaps there really are 3-4 teams out there that know something nobody else does...and knows that promoting 21 y.o.'s to the majors works. Perhaps they just got lucky drafting super high, and perhaps those pitchers will burn out. Who knows. But I also think it's kind of crazy to compare every prospect to every other prospect. I would still rank Meyer ahead of Berrios to this point, based on pure stuff and his length. But I would also put Berrios as a top 5 Twins prospect. Saying he is behind Buxton, Sano and Meyer is no small thing! His stuff, his approach and work ethic seem outstanding. And as reported, despite average height, he seems to do an outstanding job of keeping the ball low. If all of this continues, he could surpass Meyer. But for now, I'd say #2 behind Meyer in the Twins organization for pitchers.

And yet, another well thought out thread with lots of arguments and opinions that are well argued and thought out. I really enjoy both parts of the 2015 thread Nick, and wish to be yet another to compliment you on them. Sorry to inform you that the two of us seem to be of similar thought most of the time. Lol I still agree, in principle, that the roster is mostly set for 2015. Again, this does not mean there isn't room for improvement, internally in the current roster proposed, as well as top prospects in the system, a few who are approaching quickly. And it doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement externally as well. You can approach the Twins rebuild from two different perspectives. One is that they still aren't a playoff team yet, and we should sign and trade wherever we can to blow most of the roster up. Of course, there is no guarantee that approach will work. There are injuries, regression, poor fits, bad chemistry, and then you've lost prospects and committed multiple millions and lost financial flexibility. Two is that you continue to develop the young talent that has come up this season, is on it's way, and supplement. Of course, there is also no guarantee this will work either. The Twins are no longer just a cute little try hard "small market" team revenue sharing and Target Field have done a lot to change that. But the Twins are also not, nor ever will be, a NY, Boston, Chicago, LA franchise with the resources to burn cash. The Twins, and their young prospects, are not "THERE" yet, however you want to define that. But they have and are promoting and playing youngsters of varying potential: Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Dozier, Escobar, Gibson and May. You could toss Hick in there depending on perspective. They spent real money on the rotation in Hughes and Nolasco, and even tried to sign more in Garza. Other than LF, and potentially CF, where, honestly, does this team spend real money, on a decent length contract, to improve itself long term over the player currently there, or really close? CF is short term due to Buxton, but said player could slide to LF or be a really good 4th OF player. SS? So you'd spend big money or trade quality prospects for who? And over the options of Escobar, Santana and soon, possibly Polanco? We already have the most production and talent at that position in years, with the possibility of more to come. LF is really the only option to sign or trade for someone more talented than what we have in place, and without blocking a top prospect or solid player in place. Yes, I AM an optimist. Still, the Twins didn't sign Nolasco to a Twins record FA contract because he was Pelfrey or Correia. He is a big notch or two above those guys. And you have to believe a healthy Nolasco will provide a solid season next year after an unfortunate and mostly lost season this year. Odds and past production alone state this. May has kind of sucked so far. Honestly, who cares? I was hoping for a dynamite start, but it doesn't always work that way. Even when he has sucked, he's struck guys out. (Remember, we don't have anyone who can do that) He's growing, learning, eating up experience and lessons to prepare himself for 2015, much in the same way Gibson did last season. His last start didn't turn out great, but showed improvement. Tonight was clearly his best start and a real boost! Will he pull a Gibson-sized move next season? Unknown, but the parallel and the talent are there to do so. Milone has kind of sucked thus far, and been generally disappointing...BUT...his previous track record is solid. Let's give him at least a small break shall we? Meyer could be a future stud, but is still young, developing, searching for the hated C-word, consistency, but could be a big part of 2015 at some point, if not immediately. Pelfrey? I don't know. Finally healthy, pitching like he did at times with the Mets and the Twins in 2013, he could be a nice fill in, or a possible pen option. His contract is not big, and could be gone without pain. Point is, there is hope and options for 2015. The Twins actually made a concerted effort to sign Garza last season even after signing Hughes and Nolasco. That tells me they are not opposed to doing so again. Though I do think it's naive to just state; "go sign or trade for an ace pitcher". They have the money to spend, no doubt. Is it prudent to tie up big money and years in to another SP along with Nolasco, and Hughes, who you might want to sign to an extension? That's really the question I think. I simply don't buy that a high end SP wouldn't sign with the Twins after 4 losing seasons. Why? Because said pitcher is not only getting paid, but he and his agent also recognize they are deepening what could be a quality rotation, would be playing in one of the best ballparks in all of baseball, and have a talented group of youngsters around them, with more on the way. I'd love to just throw open the bullpen to massive competition with no single spot spoken for except Perkins a and probably Fien. That might be impractical, but it would be fun. If we want to build this team the right way, I'd sign a LF and keep my prospects. I'd sign one quality FA setup guy for the pen. I have to admit, I'm intrigued and excited, but wary, about that one big SP signing. The money is there. But long term, is it prudent?

Not a big math guy, though I generally follow the numbers and greatly appreciate the sentiment and work put in. Also not big on WAR, possibly because some of its value still escapes me. I guess I feel that it's still hard to use it as a measurable "expectant" of players, their production, and ultimate wins and loses of a team. Too many variables in the course of a game and season. Example: a player hits well and has lots of XB hits but doesn't have many RBI. Is that lack of runners or does he simply produce hits and power when no-one is on base? A team plays solid defense and scores a bunch of runs but doesn't win. Does the staff stink? Or do the runs come in bunches and not in enough low scoring games to make a difference? Again, not sure I understand all the metrics involved. I also wouldn't platoon the young and talented Arcia, but that doesn't mean he can't take off days against tough LHer's. I believe we're actually seeing Mauer be Mauer again. And with any protection, and anyone providing decent production ahead of him, I look for a nice year from him next season. Especially with a 140-150 game season. Experience, proven production, deepening the lineup, providing insurance and Lessing pressure for youngsters such as Arcia and Vargas, I still like a quality veteran in LF next season. I'm not opposed to Cuddyer. Healthy, I believe he can still play and produce at least more good year. I think Melky is a nice option. As could be Markakis. And I think there a few other reasonable options. I think the rest of it is nurturing Plouffe, Hicks, Santana, Dozier and Escobar, amongst others, in an attempt to build on this year for next.

You might be on to something here! What would it take, you think, to bring Butera back? Herrmann has experience playing 3B in college, a little, and I thought I read in high school as well. Young and fairly athletic, with experience, it would seem natural. Butera behind the plate. (Also counts as an extra RP) Fryer runs pretty well, so he takes a corner OF spot. Mauer or Pinto could play 1B, with the other in the OF and Suzuki as a DH. To really mess with the opposition, you could even rotate the backstop between innings. Too bad Wathan and Biggio are retired. Might give us our CF right there. (Tongue and cheek both ache!)