DocBauer

What so the Twins see in Haley? Game day, bullpens, etc, what do they see and do they like it/him enough? If they do, 2 of Duffey, Berrios and Mejia begin the season in Rochester. I also would not give up on Sunday as a starter just yet. From being experienced, being LH and being a good teamate, im kind of excited for Breslow. But Jay, Melotakis and others, his sexond tour with the Twins may not be a long one.

Just curious...I like Granite as well...but this same time next year, could English be the better overall prospect? I swear I read somewhere that he has a stronger arm. He seems to have a similar table settling approach at the plate and his speed is very good. Just wondering what anyone thinks.

Well...at least the pitchforks are sharpened for farm work, eh boys?

FWIW, Duffey stated in an interview last season that his problem was lack of FB command and not lack of his change. Molitor or Allen, I believe but can't remember for sure, echoed the sentiment. Duffey has stated before that he has four pitches; a 4 seamer and a 2 seamer that have different movement and are thrown with slightly different speed, and 2 different curveballs, one softer thrown with the big break, and one thrown harder that has more of a slider/slurred action.

Maybe I shouldn't say this so loud. Maybe, with the "Jay to the bullpen" growing by leaps and bounds it's not the right time to say this. Maybe I'm just an eternal optomist with Twins-red colored glasses and/or I'm just nuts! And all of these are very possible! Nonetheless, I'm actually feeling oddly optomistic about the rotation for 2017. Please let me be clear, I am not speculating the Twins will put together any sort of playoff rotation this season. I am not saying there are not serious questions going forward, or areas that may need addressing. And as we all know, as informed baseball fans and readers of TD, the Twins could STILL have one of the worst starting staffs in 2017 and STILL be better in 2017. But just beyond a new Marshall and Sheriff in town implementing their new laws and ways of doing things, let me state my reasons for optomism. Hughes: Can we forget about the contract extension already? It's become almost as redundant as the Mauer contract debate. His signing for 2014 was considered, by most, as smart, and maybe a bit of a steal. Turned out to be true. His 2015 was not nearly as good, and we know now he was begining to suffer effects from his injury that would eventually require surgery. 2016 was a nightmare for all involved. And all off season, I labeled him as a dark horse who shouldn't be counted on for anything, and would probably be some sort of DL, EST, milb rehab candidate who could potentially figure in down the road. Except, he lost weight, has been throwing easy, and has been working hard on his change while regaining velocity. Sometimes ST stats mean something, and sometimes they don't. But he is a young-ish veteran SP regaining his velocity, reportedly in the 90-92 range, rehabbing, working on his arsenal, seemingly healthy...all very much to my surprise at this point...getting ahead of most hitters. He may not be "finished" just yet, but don't you have to admit he's exceeded all previous expectations thus far? Santana: A consulate professional with a solid and productive career coming off a very good season. Indeed, overall, his Twins career has been very solid. There remains nothing, to this point...as some have speculated or predicted...that his stuff will suddenly disappear or that his arm will suddenly fall off. The WBC has kept him away from the Twins for most of ST, but again, there is nothing to indicate he has suddenly "lost it". Gibson: This is simple to me, and a bit perplexing. As I stated in another post, we have a highly regarded draft choice with an excellent milb track record pre-surgery. Post-surgery, he looked very good and everyone was clamoring for his promotion. He got it, and he got rocked. This happens to a lot of prospects. But he had a fine "rookie" season in 2014 and pitched even better in 2015 despite his W-L record. 2016 was an injury filled mess, as was most of the season/team. He is healthy again, working on different aspects of his training and repertoire, and has mostly looked pretty good. IMHO, we are looking for the best Gibson we've seen thus far. I'd bet real money that ability and pre-2016 Gibson is far better than 2016 Gibson. Santiago: Look, I don't know what to think here either. He's made an all star team, and has flat out pitched above his peripherals. None of his numbers or his career is great, but the results are...solid. he was pitching very well when the Twins acquired him. He stunk when he came here. And then he finished the season with a string of solid starts. I'm still not sure what we have. A couple of years ago, we'd have been excited to have someone like Santiago in the rotation vs Corria, for example. Now he's a "get rid of" candidate. If the cards fall right, he will pitch well and be the first pitcher me move on from in favor of someone else, via trade and promotion. Followed by Santana to a needy and contending team. Berrios/Mejia: Mejia has looked good,mostly, and Berrios is just SO talented. There has to be room for at least one of these two soon, if not immediately. And they both have options. Up, down, up again, is it really so hard to see each of these youngsters spending at least half a season establishing themselves at the ML level this season? So a healthy Hughes, normal Santana, a healthy improved Gibson, a so-so but potentially decent/solid Santiago and a couple of decent prospects ready to make their mark...am I really crazy to be optomistic about the rotation? At least compared to where we've been?

I think you're close Seth. The WBC has messed with preparation time for a few guys and that stinks to high heaven, but it is what it is. I'd also say Park over Vargas. Vargas is a bit of a favorite of mine, but he just hasn't been here and hasn't played much and still has an option now. Park has simply looked much better than last season and I think he sticks. Really big on Garver, but getting him playing daily to begin the season with Gimenez as the backup makes some sense. For now at least. Really, has any spot on the team improved more this season than catcher? I completely agree on Berrios or Mejia as the 5th starter. Vigelsong has shown nothing. There HAS to be room for one of the young starters. And I don't care which one, because the other will be up, and probably soon. There is going to be enough depth, enough options, that we don't have to play the "veteran placeholder" card for the 5th rotation spot. As long as Grossman is healthy, we have our 4 OF. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think DanSan is the 25th man. I really believe it comes down to him, Adrianza and Gonzalez. Adriana has the leather but not much else. To be fair, his mile numbers aren't bad and opportunity may have eluded him previously. Monitor seems to like Gonzalez, but he could sit at AAA for now. Santana is still young and athletic and Molitor seems to like him. I know we bash him, and rightly so at times, for his "ability" to play 6 positions...but...even playing them average to not so well is still different than tossing an OF in at 2B, or a 1B/DH in to the OF. And he has hit pretty well this far. I'm hoping Goodrum becomes what we hoped Santana would be, and soon, but I think the final spot still goes to DanSan.

I choose to look at May with a glass is half full approach. Very quickly, it would seem, we're going to have he, Melotakis and Rogers as LHRP options. As well as Chargois, Pressly, Reed, Hildenberger, Burdi,possibly Duffey, and a couple more who could make a push. Wow! I know it doesn't help the rotation, but pretty soon the pen and lineup are going to be well set and well stocked.

I'm going to half agree with you Dave. Maybe that means I give them a B- or a C+? I have maintained all along that this season was primarily about 3 things: 1] Evaluating talent from top to bottom in the organization from players to managers to coaches to scouts and other FO personnel, 2] Establishing a new culture and a new way of doing things from the FO, to data, to scouting, to the daily approach and techniques used by the Twins all the way down through the milb system, 3] Keep working with and developing the talent on hand while augmenting the ML roster without getting in your own way or the way of young players ready or close to being ready. The first was points are so behind the scenes that it's hard to grade effectively and we may not see or understand the results for another year or two. And the third point is open to discussion throughout the season as we see who does what, who gets promoted, etc. But I am a mixed bag on the various moves they made. I like the Castro signing. I've come around some on Gimenez. He's experienced, solid, reportedly a good clubhouse guy, the position needed to be upgraded, he's a cheap backup for one year, Murphy was an unknown quality at thevery time of signing, (may still be), and Garver has only a few weeks of AAA. Am I sold, especially being a big Garver guy? Nope. But I have come around on his addition for at least the short term. I think Belisle was pretty smart, but I would have brought in a bounce back candidate to replace Kintzler that offered the chance for a "keeper" upgrade or trade flip possibility. Breslow was the kind of low level, decent reward LH pen option I thought could be smart. But I strongly disagree with no real effort made for a solid reserve OF as well as the signing of Vogelsong. (Assuming he's truly do being considered or promised for anything). This is nothing against Vogelsong in any way, but what does he possibly offer in any way? A couple months to a partial season of mediocre starts? Couldn't we get that out...at worst...from Duffey, Berrios or Mejia? There's just no upside I can see there. At best, he offers those guys a chance to get off to a good start at Rochester before coming up and taking the ball from him. At best.

First, I am focusing on Jay, and not a 10 year history. Second, I would keep him in the rotation for this season to see what he could accomplish. Whether he would reach his potential as a starter or not we don't know. But the potential is there, and I think it's a mistake to move him this soon. But I don't buy in to any just argument. It was not a good draft when he came out and the Twins fried something a lot of us had complained about for some time: try the upside arm and stop with the safe choices! The new FO office thinks this is the smart choice? Fine. Run with it. I hope he rockets to the Twins and becomes a dominant LHRP. But while this news, the original draft position, etc, may be disappointing, just not going to call it a bust.

Just to be clear, I am not advocating a rebuild, nor am I stating Falvey or Levine are looking for one either. This team is already full in the midst of a rebuild with all the young talent currently on the roster. When I reference getting younger, I am referencing the rotation in particular vs additional 30yo veteran types. Thus, a healthy Hughes and Gibson, a couple young guys like Berrios and Mejia hopefully becoming established this season, I am arguing/contemplating running with one of many potential 5th starter options or possibly a trade for a top SP rather than the length and cost of a FA contract. I should have been more clear.

Personally, I feel Stubbs and Vogelsong are long shots at this point. I just don't see that they've done shown anything to warrant a roster spot at this point. We all complained about the Twins catching last season, and while I'm a big Garber fan and believer, the Twins seem to have addressed that position quite well. Believe should help. Looks like The slow has a **** to help as well, and would be an easy guy to let go if he fades and/or someone like Melotakis is ready. Your managers and coaches have a job to do. Hopefully they do it well. But there is an advantage for young players to have quality veterans to relate to and learn from, IMO.

Just throwing this out there. To me, the following seems very possible and very realistic for 2017 and how the rotation looks when done: Hughes: I called him a dark horse all offseason and figured he'd begin the season on rehab. Well, he lost weight, is stretching out, still has his control, is working hard on his change, and has now been, reportedly, hitting low 90's. The extension doesn't matter at this point! What matters is being healthy, hitting 92 again...which seems to be an impending reality...and hopefully/possibly returning to his 2014 level. Gibson: High draft choice with quality milb career previously and post surgery. OK, a rough introduction in 2013 but not completely unexpected for any young pitcher, especially one perhaps wearing down later in the season. He was solid in 2014, even better in 2015 before an injury filled and terrible 2016. He's healthy, working on things, and looking pretty good thus far in ST. We're I a betting man, I'd weight Gibson's milb and ML success thus far vs his 2016 season and lay money he's a strong bounce back candidate. Santana and Santiago gone via trade or as a non-sign. Mejia looks good and maybe ready for a role. Soon if not now. Berrios is very young, talented, and proven himself at AAA. Finished product? No. But you almost have to believe both he and Mejia will end up with at least a half season with the Twins this year. Is this really that hard to see or expect? Is it really outlandish to see these 4 ready for 2018? That leaves 1 rotation spot to fill. Internally you would have the following possible candidates of various ranking and expectations/possibility: May, Duffey, Haley, Gonsalves, Romero, Stewart, Jorge and Slegers. Do you roll with these? Aren't we trying to get better and younger and build something? Do you include some of these guys, and others, and make a major 4 for 1 kind of deal for a starter? Or do you still look at a major 5 or 6 year deal for a FA starter?

IMO, the Twins are financially sound enough and viable enough to make that $20-25M splash once every few seasons. Now is an example with the finances coming off the books the next couple of seasons. Right now, it's looking like Hughes becoming a solid ML SP again is actually a possibility. Let's say the Gibson we are seeing this ST is a healthy and rebounding Gibson and not a mirage. Santiago and Santana both may be gone next seaaon or sometime later this season. Fast forward to 2018 and a couple guys like Berrios and Mejia have proven something in 2017 and the rotation might actually be just that one big arm away. But assuming those guys, Gonsalves, Jay, Jorge, Stewart and Romero don't all have themselves fine seasons and are on the brink, I'd almost rather put together a package and trade for a top starter. Probably more control and even a younger option than going the FA route.

I'm a big believer in Rosario. His biggest problem to this point, other than general inexperience with about 750 AB I believe, is himself. He dies have a edge about him, an excitement, a want and need to excel and produce. Really, when you look at what he has flashes and the overall talent level, he doesn't have to do much. He just needs to relax a bit. Don't try so fan hard all the time. He dies that, some of those ridiculous out of done swings and misses Will disappear. When they do, contact rate goes up, SO numbers go down...slightly at least...and BB rates go up...slightly at least. He will probably always be a bit streaky, but just a little more calm, a little less crazy, will help even out a couple of his numbers, which should help him realize his potential. I say he's a legitimate. 280/.310-.320 hitter with every/almost every year 30+ doubles, hand and a half worth of triples and legit 20/20 type of producer.

I'd keep Grossman over Stubbs hands down. Barring injury, they don't need a true CF backup type. Stubbs could stick with AAA awaiting an opportunity. Agree Vogelsong just doesn't make any sense. We have every hit as good or better options for the pen, and Mejia has clearly out pitched him thus far. It's time to put a prospect in the rotation! If that's Mejia, then Berrios and Duffey can begin the season in Rochester. Vogelsong will have a similar option as Stubbs, pitch in AAA and await an opportunity.

Great article Seth! Thanks for all the news and updates! Can't wait for the milb season to start!

A really good day for Mejia in what has been a good spring overall. I know there has been a lot of consternation about Vogelsong winning the 5th spot, even as a temporary solution to give the prospects like Mejia, Berrios and even Duffey time in AAA. I really don't like that idea and hope there are more days like today to force the Twins thinking to give the final spot to one of the youngsters. That would still, potentially, leave 2 of them in AAA to call up later, along with others potentially. Anyone else impressed by the pen this spring?

Not sure I totally agree. Love the OF defense. Feel Castro and whoever his backup will ultimately be will be solid. The right half of the infield will be just fine. Left side? Mmmmm...could be OK. Not great, but OK.

I admit to not sitting down and doing research. And thusly, I am choosing to debate rather than argue, lol. But 66 PA is closer to 50 than a hundred. You also stated that Lawton moved around in the lineup, which would affect the total numbers vs a static lineup. Also, it is one season vs number of seasons for proper context. Puckett, for example, didn't always walk a lot, but as a #3 hitter, he was always 500+ AB and I believe he may have hit 600 once or twice?? I'm just saying, overall, being separated by 1 or 2 spots in the order, over an average season, I'm not sure you'd see a very large discrepancy in PA between the 1 and 3 holes in the order. As to your other question, I can see Buxton getting an audition for the leadoff spot, but of course, he also has to produce there to hold the spot. He shouldn't just automatically be given the spot if not ready. I have always believed in trying to stagger your lineup, as best as possible, for a mix of LH/RH, power vs speed vs hitting vs OB, etc, to "deepen" your lineup 1-9. So let me ask you this...as I stated previously, Buxton, in this scenario, is deserving of hitting leadoff due to his overall ability and skill set as an exciting player. Even if he did have 66 more PA than Dozier over an entire 162 game season, and we're not talking Nixon now, what would be more valuable? Dozier hitting 1st? Or Dozier with fewer PA, in theory, but with more dynamic players OB ahead of him to be moved along or driven in?

I can't like this post enough! Owners, moderators, shouldn't we have the ability to love or maybe even double like a post, lol? I absolutely don't like some of the roster projections posted here. Nor do I agree with all of them. But let's remember exactly things right here, right now, at this moment: 1] The roster is NOT set yet. Molitor may have more control this season, we shall see. And there is a new Marshall and Sheriff in town, and we don't know all their ideas or intentions or plans just yet. 2] With very little exception...teams coming off big seasons which we are not...the opening day rosters tend to be very fluid, even a few weeks to a month or so in. 3] Going back to point #2, Brandon is absolutely correct when he states it is easy to jettison a veteran for a young player but you can't go backward. As much as it chagrines me, should the team open with Vogelsong or Gimenez over Berrios or Garver, for example, will I, or anyone, care June 1st when the veteran is gone and the prospect is up for the rest of the season? I am NOT advocating a bunch of hangers on veterans being kept for veterans sake. Not at all! BUT, if the powers that be decide to play a little game of "Risk" or "Sorry" for a month while a couple of young guys get off to good starts at AAA before coming up, I can be OK with that. Not what I would do...but I get it.

Nice article Brandon, and I always appreciate your work and your perception. Gut reaction? I think you're pretty close. I am believing Park is making believers out of Molitor, the staff, and the FO. We still have a LOT of time left before the season starts. A lot of things are going to change between here and now. While a fan and believer in Vargas, I believe a healthy, hard working Park is taking advantage of an opportunity and Vargas, as of now, is going to AAA to begin the season. Molitor and the FO want to improve the pitching and the defense. Does Gimenez do that as the backup catcher? I don't know. He might. Murphy still has options, Garver is probably better than either. I'm a big believer in Garver, but with limited time in AAA, I also have to ask myself if I want him to begin the season on the bench, or playing just about every day for Rochester before making a move? It's a tough call. Despite a preference to improve team defense, which I applaud, I don't buy in to Adrianza. He continues to not hit. I think Benji Gonzalez (?) May have already moved ahead of him as an option. And I'm sorry to say this...I truly am...but despite some bad plays, DanSan has also made some good plays, and he has hit and produced thus far, and he would be my pick as the "last man standing" at this point for the last bench spot. (Until Goodrum proves he is ready). I don't get Vogelsong at all! No offense to the guy. He is a batter and a survivor to be sure. But even if your attempt is to win more games and not simply run up a "rebuilding" white flag, you still have room for him? You still have the young and quite talented group of Berrios, Mejia, Duffey and even Haley...who I'm sure you want to keep in some way...as other options. IMHO, he is AAA bound with "opportunity" written next to his name and he should be grateful for such. Chargois makes the pen unless he implodes. Duffey, or someone, gets cut loose.

Sorry Willi, I understand the sentiment, but don't understand or agree with the arguement here. If Buxton hits leadoff, as the debate would seem to indicate, and Dozier hits 3rd, again as implied, then even if all else batters to begin the game fail to produce, all 3 would have made a PA. The only way I could see Buxton having more total PA than Dozier would be a number of games ending in the 9th inning with Buxton or the unnamed #2 hitter making the final out with Dozier on deck or in the hole. There is simply no way to correlate how many times this could potentially happen, but even over a 162 game schedule, with 9 lineup spots and 3 outs per inning, I simply can't see a large discrepancy of PA in Buxton's favor over Dozier. I guess I would have to add, if and when Buxton is deserving of the leadoff spot, wouldn't he be one of the teams best and most dangerous hitters? Again, I appreciate the sentiment, and there are a lot of ways to construct a lineup, I just don't see the arguement here.

I guess I'm also old school in this regard. Now, of course, it depends on who you have on your team. Speed with no OB isn't always that effective, unless your entire team is built on speed, contact, etc. If you don't have speed but rather a team built on hitting and power, you go the OB guy first, period. Buxton, as I have said before, could very easily be the guy who slides down to the 3 hole one of these days as the "best" overall hitter and perhaps most dynamic player on the team, driving them in and setting them up for hitters behind him. But for the foreseeable future, I really like he and Polanco in some combination of 1 & 2. Sometime in the very near future, both of these guys are going to hit their stride. As much as I love Polanco, Buxton will always be the more "dynamic" player due to his incredible speed and budding power potential. And, in time and based on past numbers, he will hit and provide OB. But Polanco has such a nice, we'll rounded game...potentially. he can hit, get OB, steal a few bases, take the extra base, leg out doubles and triples, and I believe he has the potential for double digit HR. So which combination is better? The dynamic Buxton leading off with the bat control and all around game of Polanco hitting behind him? (Remember, Polanco has rather extensive experience as a #3 hitter in the minors). Or Polanco and his all around game hitting ahead of the dynamic Buxton, providing scoring opportunities? Nobody ever said your #2 hitter HAS to be the "give it up and move runners over" type of hitter.

Nice post, and interesting. And I like your lineup and can't argue with it. Especially since I stated myself why Mauer/Grossman could be a nice fit there, lol. But I have never heard anything regarding the James theory regarding the #3 hitter. Not your best hitter but a power guy who strikes out a lot? Seems to fly in the face of everything I've ever seen, heard or personally believed. This would seem to indicate Sano hitting 3rd and Dozier 4th. Would you care to expound on this idea? I'd love to hear more!

I know it's only SSS, but I was impressed by what Gonsalves, Romero and Rosario accomplished in their short time, these are talented, young guys getting a small taste of ML life and competition, and instead of being intimidated or trying too hard, they just went out and performed well. I find Rosario's comments about relieving to be very interesting. Not sure the last time I've heard a young pitcher stating that he prefers relieving, unless he was a closer. Not a knock on the kid, just interesting. Boy oh boy, can you imagine over the next 12 months or so guys like Rogers, Melotakis and Rosario from the left side in the pen? (Mejia or Jay possibly joining them). Combine that with Pressly, Duffey, Hildenberger, Chargois, Reed and Burdi? (Maybe Wimmers and Baxendale). I find Slegers interesting. I'm not quite sure what to make of him. Despite his huge frame, he doesn't throw overly hard, though I'very also read his FB plays up because of his frame. Despite his huge frame, which usually screams poor mechanics, his WHIP has been solid, same with ERA, and he has held a 3-1 SO/BB ratio. At 24yo, is he still growing in to his body? Could maturity and even better mechanics add velocity? Is he a control pitcher big man with deception? Like I said, I find him interesting.