DocBauer

Tired of hearing about Benintendi. So tired. How many teams passed on him before Boston selected him? This the Trout arguement all over again. "If only we knew...", well...you didn't. The MLB draft draft is the biggest crap shoot in all of sports. The Twins needed pitching. They went and did something we have never seen them do in recent memory, and often complained about, they drafted a top arm with projectability. That guy was Jay. In a reportedly weak draft, they went after a big, projectable LH arm they thought they could work with and develop. At worst, they had a LH arm that projected to being great in the pen. You draft for both need and BPA don't you? I'm relatively certain...please correct me if I'm wrong...that the Twins would have drafted a front line, ACE SP or future all star position player at this spot were it made known to them. We can certainly disagree whether or not Jay should be removed, at this point, from developing his talents as a SP. And I believe there is an arguement to be made there. But I'm tired of hearing the wasted draft pick debate. Baseball HAS changed and evolved over the years, very slowly. WAY gone are 4 man pitching staffs and a collection of 200 IP rotations. And at the end of the day, the best chance you have to win is with quality SP. But in my 40+ years of following the Twins specifically and MLB in general, I've seen winning teams based on power, speed, defense, SP, RP and combinations of such. The new regime has decided that Jay can have the biggest impact going forward being a top RP. Fine. Didn't the Twins in the past, and the Royals recently, reach the WS with a couple of top starters and deep bullpen? Just saying...a lot of ways to build a winning team.

I have to agree with Goat. I don't see any need to "save face" with letting Haley go just because he was the initial rule 5 pick by the new FO. He just hasn't pitched all that well, nor as well as I hoped or even expected. Wimmers was a SP in college and most of his milb career. At this point, he could easily be the long man you need and you could keep Tonkin and hope the BB go down. Not saying it matters in the long run, because I'm not sure it does. The truth is Chargois is simply better, but had a bad spring. Would anyone be surprised to see him up in a month and taking over a key spot? Reed and Hildenberger the same, really. Either or both could be ready very soon. I still like Duffey as a starter. Again, he throws 4 pitches. His problem last season was FB location, reported by himself and backed up by the coaches,and he has looked very good most of the spring. Some kind of change could absolutely help, as any kind of decent pitch offering could help anyone, but it still comes down to FB command. But if the variations of his 2 FB and 2 different curves aren't enough, he could still be moved to the pen where he would/should have more than enough to be solid to very good. Despite being un-enthusiastic about the pen overall to begin the season, I'm not bent out of shape because I know the options available, and how quickly things can change a mere month in to the season. And I believe they will. (And we're not even talking about Jay or Melotakis at this point). In a perverse way, I like the rotation more. Santana looks good. Gibson looks good. Still mixed on Santiago..but...his finish last season and overall ST has been OK, and I'm hoping for a "tradeable " performance from him. I know many are down on Hughes, but I didn't expect to see what we have seen from him thus far. And I'm not joking here. He's been working on his change, throwing strikes, getting ahead of hitters...and then he throws a clunker! His next start, he throws another clunker in the very first inning! But then settles down to pitch 5 more innings of 1 run ball. We just don't know what we have here yet, but I am more than willing to give him a month to ramp up, feel his way back, build up velocity, and see what he can do. Still believe in Duffey if he actually has his FB command back. I believe he has earned his shot. But I am so excited to have Berrios and Mejia waiting in the wings for their opportunity. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see both with 15-20 starts for the Twins this year. Still want Vargas to get his shot and wouldn't be surprised if he rakes at AAA. The way he was playing, Adrianza might have forced DanSan off the roster. For now, he's safe. But I suspect his leash is very short and he could be done in about 30 days tops. (Though I'd re-sign him to Rochester if he goes unclaimed).

I'm thinking at this point Wimmers makes it just because. And that's not a knock. Chargois simply didn't capitalize on his ending performance last season and the open window this spring. Unfortunately for himself, as well as the team. And because of this, you may be right about Haley, but I'm just not sold on him. I wish I was, and was hoping I would be. I still think the team might be better with Duffey in the pen and Mejia in the rotation. But I'm not ready to give up on Duffey as a SP yet, and in the long run, his taking the final rotation spot is the right call. He can still move to the pen, but I think he's shown again the spring what he may be capable of. I absolutely don't believe this rotation or bullpen is what we will see a couple of months from now.

Echo enthusiasm for Molitor being willing to mix and match. I can't say for sure that Buxton is ready to hit in the 3 spot, but I find the idea intriguing to be sure. Has me thinking about Polanco first, followed by Mauer/Grossman, Buxton, then sano and Dozier in whatever order. And then Kepler, Park, Rosario and catcher. Sort of breaks up LH/RH and youth with experience thought the lineup. Would also place guys who can run well throughout the lineup.

Stinks for Berrios but makes sense. He saw little time with the Twins and you can say he was up to 55 pitches in bullpen, but it wasn't game action and the Twins weren't there to watch him and work with him. Next time he's up, it will hopefully be for good. Tough spring for Vargas, though I'm sure he wouldn't trade his WBC experience for anything. Thankfully he has the extra option and Park has looked much, much better.

I also agree with Hosken on Duffey. Still too early to give up him as a starter. While a 3rd pitch, or the threat of one, could help, he throws 2 different fastballs and 2 different curves. His biggest problem last season was his FB command.

Bummer about Chargois to be sure. I had him as a sure bet initially. I'm sure he will be back soon and probably for good. But I think there is still a difference between someone established and working on something vs a young arm just not throwing well. It's hard to say someone throwing better that he doesn't deserve the opportunity.

Just curious...I like Granite as well...but this same time next year, could English be the better overall prospect? I swear I read somewhere that he has a stronger arm. He seems to have a similar table settling approach at the plate and his speed is very good. Just wondering what anyone thinks.

Well...at least the pitchforks are sharpened for farm work, eh boys?

FWIW, Duffey stated in an interview last season that his problem was lack of FB command and not lack of his change. Molitor or Allen, I believe but can't remember for sure, echoed the sentiment. Duffey has stated before that he has four pitches; a 4 seamer and a 2 seamer that have different movement and are thrown with slightly different speed, and 2 different curveballs, one softer thrown with the big break, and one thrown harder that has more of a slider/slurred action.

I think you're close Seth. The WBC has messed with preparation time for a few guys and that stinks to high heaven, but it is what it is. I'd also say Park over Vargas. Vargas is a bit of a favorite of mine, but he just hasn't been here and hasn't played much and still has an option now. Park has simply looked much better than last season and I think he sticks. Really big on Garver, but getting him playing daily to begin the season with Gimenez as the backup makes some sense. For now at least. Really, has any spot on the team improved more this season than catcher? I completely agree on Berrios or Mejia as the 5th starter. Vigelsong has shown nothing. There HAS to be room for one of the young starters. And I don't care which one, because the other will be up, and probably soon. There is going to be enough depth, enough options, that we don't have to play the "veteran placeholder" card for the 5th rotation spot. As long as Grossman is healthy, we have our 4 OF. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think DanSan is the 25th man. I really believe it comes down to him, Adrianza and Gonzalez. Adriana has the leather but not much else. To be fair, his mile numbers aren't bad and opportunity may have eluded him previously. Monitor seems to like Gonzalez, but he could sit at AAA for now. Santana is still young and athletic and Molitor seems to like him. I know we bash him, and rightly so at times, for his "ability" to play 6 positions...but...even playing them average to not so well is still different than tossing an OF in at 2B, or a 1B/DH in to the OF. And he has hit pretty well this far. I'm hoping Goodrum becomes what we hoped Santana would be, and soon, but I think the final spot still goes to DanSan.

I choose to look at May with a glass is half full approach. Very quickly, it would seem, we're going to have he, Melotakis and Rogers as LHRP options. As well as Chargois, Pressly, Reed, Hildenberger, Burdi,possibly Duffey, and a couple more who could make a push. Wow! I know it doesn't help the rotation, but pretty soon the pen and lineup are going to be well set and well stocked.

First, I am focusing on Jay, and not a 10 year history. Second, I would keep him in the rotation for this season to see what he could accomplish. Whether he would reach his potential as a starter or not we don't know. But the potential is there, and I think it's a mistake to move him this soon. But I don't buy in to any just argument. It was not a good draft when he came out and the Twins fried something a lot of us had complained about for some time: try the upside arm and stop with the safe choices! The new FO office thinks this is the smart choice? Fine. Run with it. I hope he rockets to the Twins and becomes a dominant LHRP. But while this news, the original draft position, etc, may be disappointing, just not going to call it a bust.

Just to be clear, I am not advocating a rebuild, nor am I stating Falvey or Levine are looking for one either. This team is already full in the midst of a rebuild with all the young talent currently on the roster. When I reference getting younger, I am referencing the rotation in particular vs additional 30yo veteran types. Thus, a healthy Hughes and Gibson, a couple young guys like Berrios and Mejia hopefully becoming established this season, I am arguing/contemplating running with one of many potential 5th starter options or possibly a trade for a top SP rather than the length and cost of a FA contract. I should have been more clear.

Just throwing this out there. To me, the following seems very possible and very realistic for 2017 and how the rotation looks when done: Hughes: I called him a dark horse all offseason and figured he'd begin the season on rehab. Well, he lost weight, is stretching out, still has his control, is working hard on his change, and has now been, reportedly, hitting low 90's. The extension doesn't matter at this point! What matters is being healthy, hitting 92 again...which seems to be an impending reality...and hopefully/possibly returning to his 2014 level. Gibson: High draft choice with quality milb career previously and post surgery. OK, a rough introduction in 2013 but not completely unexpected for any young pitcher, especially one perhaps wearing down later in the season. He was solid in 2014, even better in 2015 before an injury filled and terrible 2016. He's healthy, working on things, and looking pretty good thus far in ST. We're I a betting man, I'd weight Gibson's milb and ML success thus far vs his 2016 season and lay money he's a strong bounce back candidate. Santana and Santiago gone via trade or as a non-sign. Mejia looks good and maybe ready for a role. Soon if not now. Berrios is very young, talented, and proven himself at AAA. Finished product? No. But you almost have to believe both he and Mejia will end up with at least a half season with the Twins this year. Is this really that hard to see or expect? Is it really outlandish to see these 4 ready for 2018? That leaves 1 rotation spot to fill. Internally you would have the following possible candidates of various ranking and expectations/possibility: May, Duffey, Haley, Gonsalves, Romero, Stewart, Jorge and Slegers. Do you roll with these? Aren't we trying to get better and younger and build something? Do you include some of these guys, and others, and make a major 4 for 1 kind of deal for a starter? Or do you still look at a major 5 or 6 year deal for a FA starter?

IMO, the Twins are financially sound enough and viable enough to make that $20-25M splash once every few seasons. Now is an example with the finances coming off the books the next couple of seasons. Right now, it's looking like Hughes becoming a solid ML SP again is actually a possibility. Let's say the Gibson we are seeing this ST is a healthy and rebounding Gibson and not a mirage. Santiago and Santana both may be gone next seaaon or sometime later this season. Fast forward to 2018 and a couple guys like Berrios and Mejia have proven something in 2017 and the rotation might actually be just that one big arm away. But assuming those guys, Gonsalves, Jay, Jorge, Stewart and Romero don't all have themselves fine seasons and are on the brink, I'd almost rather put together a package and trade for a top starter. Probably more control and even a younger option than going the FA route.

I'd keep Grossman over Stubbs hands down. Barring injury, they don't need a true CF backup type. Stubbs could stick with AAA awaiting an opportunity. Agree Vogelsong just doesn't make any sense. We have every hit as good or better options for the pen, and Mejia has clearly out pitched him thus far. It's time to put a prospect in the rotation! If that's Mejia, then Berrios and Duffey can begin the season in Rochester. Vogelsong will have a similar option as Stubbs, pitch in AAA and await an opportunity.

Great article Seth! Thanks for all the news and updates! Can't wait for the milb season to start!

A really good day for Mejia in what has been a good spring overall. I know there has been a lot of consternation about Vogelsong winning the 5th spot, even as a temporary solution to give the prospects like Mejia, Berrios and even Duffey time in AAA. I really don't like that idea and hope there are more days like today to force the Twins thinking to give the final spot to one of the youngsters. That would still, potentially, leave 2 of them in AAA to call up later, along with others potentially. Anyone else impressed by the pen this spring?

Not sure I totally agree. Love the OF defense. Feel Castro and whoever his backup will ultimately be will be solid. The right half of the infield will be just fine. Left side? Mmmmm...could be OK. Not great, but OK.

I admit to not sitting down and doing research. And thusly, I am choosing to debate rather than argue, lol. But 66 PA is closer to 50 than a hundred. You also stated that Lawton moved around in the lineup, which would affect the total numbers vs a static lineup. Also, it is one season vs number of seasons for proper context. Puckett, for example, didn't always walk a lot, but as a #3 hitter, he was always 500+ AB and I believe he may have hit 600 once or twice?? I'm just saying, overall, being separated by 1 or 2 spots in the order, over an average season, I'm not sure you'd see a very large discrepancy in PA between the 1 and 3 holes in the order. As to your other question, I can see Buxton getting an audition for the leadoff spot, but of course, he also has to produce there to hold the spot. He shouldn't just automatically be given the spot if not ready. I have always believed in trying to stagger your lineup, as best as possible, for a mix of LH/RH, power vs speed vs hitting vs OB, etc, to "deepen" your lineup 1-9. So let me ask you this...as I stated previously, Buxton, in this scenario, is deserving of hitting leadoff due to his overall ability and skill set as an exciting player. Even if he did have 66 more PA than Dozier over an entire 162 game season, and we're not talking Nixon now, what would be more valuable? Dozier hitting 1st? Or Dozier with fewer PA, in theory, but with more dynamic players OB ahead of him to be moved along or driven in?

Sorry Willi, I understand the sentiment, but don't understand or agree with the arguement here. If Buxton hits leadoff, as the debate would seem to indicate, and Dozier hits 3rd, again as implied, then even if all else batters to begin the game fail to produce, all 3 would have made a PA. The only way I could see Buxton having more total PA than Dozier would be a number of games ending in the 9th inning with Buxton or the unnamed #2 hitter making the final out with Dozier on deck or in the hole. There is simply no way to correlate how many times this could potentially happen, but even over a 162 game schedule, with 9 lineup spots and 3 outs per inning, I simply can't see a large discrepancy of PA in Buxton's favor over Dozier. I guess I would have to add, if and when Buxton is deserving of the leadoff spot, wouldn't he be one of the teams best and most dangerous hitters? Again, I appreciate the sentiment, and there are a lot of ways to construct a lineup, I just don't see the arguement here.

I guess I'm also old school in this regard. Now, of course, it depends on who you have on your team. Speed with no OB isn't always that effective, unless your entire team is built on speed, contact, etc. If you don't have speed but rather a team built on hitting and power, you go the OB guy first, period. Buxton, as I have said before, could very easily be the guy who slides down to the 3 hole one of these days as the "best" overall hitter and perhaps most dynamic player on the team, driving them in and setting them up for hitters behind him. But for the foreseeable future, I really like he and Polanco in some combination of 1 & 2. Sometime in the very near future, both of these guys are going to hit their stride. As much as I love Polanco, Buxton will always be the more "dynamic" player due to his incredible speed and budding power potential. And, in time and based on past numbers, he will hit and provide OB. But Polanco has such a nice, we'll rounded game...potentially. he can hit, get OB, steal a few bases, take the extra base, leg out doubles and triples, and I believe he has the potential for double digit HR. So which combination is better? The dynamic Buxton leading off with the bat control and all around game of Polanco hitting behind him? (Remember, Polanco has rather extensive experience as a #3 hitter in the minors). Or Polanco and his all around game hitting ahead of the dynamic Buxton, providing scoring opportunities? Nobody ever said your #2 hitter HAS to be the "give it up and move runners over" type of hitter.

Nice post, and interesting. And I like your lineup and can't argue with it. Especially since I stated myself why Mauer/Grossman could be a nice fit there, lol. But I have never heard anything regarding the James theory regarding the #3 hitter. Not your best hitter but a power guy who strikes out a lot? Seems to fly in the face of everything I've ever seen, heard or personally believed. This would seem to indicate Sano hitting 3rd and Dozier 4th. Would you care to expound on this idea? I'd love to hear more!

I know it's only SSS, but I was impressed by what Gonsalves, Romero and Rosario accomplished in their short time, these are talented, young guys getting a small taste of ML life and competition, and instead of being intimidated or trying too hard, they just went out and performed well. I find Rosario's comments about relieving to be very interesting. Not sure the last time I've heard a young pitcher stating that he prefers relieving, unless he was a closer. Not a knock on the kid, just interesting. Boy oh boy, can you imagine over the next 12 months or so guys like Rogers, Melotakis and Rosario from the left side in the pen? (Mejia or Jay possibly joining them). Combine that with Pressly, Duffey, Hildenberger, Chargois, Reed and Burdi? (Maybe Wimmers and Baxendale). I find Slegers interesting. I'm not quite sure what to make of him. Despite his huge frame, he doesn't throw overly hard, though I'very also read his FB plays up because of his frame. Despite his huge frame, which usually screams poor mechanics, his WHIP has been solid, same with ERA, and he has held a 3-1 SO/BB ratio. At 24yo, is he still growing in to his body? Could maturity and even better mechanics add velocity? Is he a control pitcher big man with deception? Like I said, I find him interesting.