DocBauer

Nice mailbag and responses Cody! But I take issue with May as a possible opener, despite his previous starter experience. I see him as a valuable back of the pen option with not only his stuff and his finish to 2018, but also his embracing of his role as a reliever now. Just my opinion.

I remain very high on Gonsalves for all the reasons stated in the OP. His BB jumped in 2018 to be sure. But if I may quote directly from the 2019 Handbook: "He pitched masterfully in his first two starts for the Red Wings and only gave up two walks. Over his next nine starts, however, he battled command issues and walked 36 batters over a 38-inning stretch. As soon as the calendar flipped to July, Gonsalves appeared to regain his feel. Over his final eight starts for Rochester, he had a 1.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and only walked 17 batters over 48 innings." An uneven season, to be sure. But one in which he did what he has always done, which is make adjustments and "pitch". He's never been a thrower with a wipe-out slider or mid 90's FB. Primary starter or not, he did the same thing to end his 2018 season with the Twins, though in SSS. While I believe Thorpe has better pure stuff, I think Gonsalves will be fine as a back end SP with a ceiling of a quality #3. But I agree I think he begins 2019 at Rochester.

I was also really hoping for Familia, Soria or Robertson. Still kinda upset about Robertson in particular after what he signed for. Would have taken any of those three and been pretty darn happy. I'm pretty high on Cody Allen despite a down 2018. He just turned 30 in November. Career ERA of 2.98, (5 straight season's previously of an ERA under 3.00), career AVG of .217, career WHIP of 1.19, 3.26 career K/BB. Six straight season's of 67 or more appearances and IP. And those numbers include a down 2018. I just think he's a perfect fit unless there is some health or sudden velocity concern I am unaware of. Holland has been mentioned, but he's 3 years older than Allen, their career numbers and quite close, but Holland seems to be on a 3 year downward trend except for his late seaskn surge with the Nationals last season. I'm fine with Parker as a piece. Now give me Allen with all of the other pieces on hand and I'm actually pretty optimistic.

I would have to say Moya has a leg...errr...arm up on the competition unless Mejia isn't in the rotation. In that case Mejia to the pen, Moya to Rochester to begin the year. But to further complicate the issue, if Mejia isn't in the rotation, then I'm betting Romero is. Then we open up the discussion yet again.

I hear ya but cant look at those 4 in a vacuum. Schoop is coming off a down but injured season. He was outstanding the year before and had a pair of quality seasons before that. Cron got more than 409AB for the first time and Rocco is familiar with the adjustments he made. Torreys is depth and will almost assuredly be in Rochester. I think the arguement can be made Parker is a better arm than a couple guys still on the 40 man. I still want and think we need another arm and I'd like to see another quality "utility" or "flex" player added. But I cant disagree with these 4 signings for their individual purposes.

I really want/wanted one proven guy for the back end. Then, I thought a solid flier, and there have been a ton of interesting options, would make sense for depth and competition. This is the flier. Considering his past success, relatively young age and familiarity with the FO, is there something about Allen that we are just missing here? He should be signed within the next 48hrs if you ask me.

You had me at, "Five weeks until pitchers and catchers report".

Jim Thome

Nick, I actually get what it is you are doing here. And I appreciate your efforts tremendously. And I have held off commenting until I saw your final results. The absolute best part was where and how you broke down all options and evaluations at the end. Like any ranking, you can argue about a placement here or there and it doesn't really matter when you are talking about a spot or two. But a couple of qualms: 1] Sano should be ranked higher, or Buxton lower. The potential for these two is still tremendous! And each have issues and questions and each have issues and questions that are both similar and different. 2] Considering he was just drafted, I get leaving Larnach out of the equation. Not sure I'd leave Rooker out. 3] I have read and re-read your listings over and over again. Just to make sure i haven't missed anything. And nowhere is Lewis Thorpe mentioned. I think you are missing something there my friend.

Absolutely sick about Robertson! His contract is so manageable! Why didn't we do this? Maybe we contacted him, and maybe we didn't. Maybe he wanted to stay on the east coast, liked what the Phillies were doing, hates Minnesota, whatever. Just sick about what he signed for. On the positive side, there are still arms out there. Does this move the needle downward for terms, but upward for opportunity and expediency for Allen and Ottavino and others? Come on Twins! Bring in an arm and a flier and then add another quality "utility" player that is out there!

I'm with you! There is just so much potential there, and we've seen a mixed bag of flashes of what he can do and what he could be. We're I another team calling the Twins about trade possibilities, he'd be at the top of my list because what he might become in the next year to year and a half with experience and a more even, "locked in" approach.

Mike, as you have intelligently stated, there are reasons why all 3 options could work. But if forced to choose, I'm going with option #3, the pair of RP coming in around the $20M mark. Maybe I'm wrong, but Red's history, age, and a few, solid late season performances indicate to me it was just his turn to have an off season due to injury or a tired arm. Personally, I think May is for real, especially now that he has fully embraced his role as a reliever. Even if Rogers isn't as good as 2018, he's NICE. With his milb history and first 1 1/2 years of performance I'm betting on Hildenberger. Now, let's add in Moya, Mejia and Romero for their contributions...do be determined...as SP, RP, designated/primary SP, and we start to see a lot of arms an inventive coaching staff has to work with. Some may say I'm crazy, but if this staff can find greater consistency from Magill, his mid 90's FB and wicked slider could play a part as well. Can Reed and especially Curtiss finally show the consistency to make a real contribution? But I believe in depth and options. There are still a handful of quality guys with late inning stuff and history available to make a difference without making that HUGE commitment to that "one guy". I think Allen is one of those real opportunities. Then you could bring in a flier like Herrera, or someone else, coming off injury or a down season, to increase that depth and your options. I actually like a lot of what is on hand. But I really want that depth to work with.

Maybe I'm just an optimist and like a good story, but Thorpe is one of my favorite stories, and borderline untouchable. He put up good numbers initially, then missed two full seasons due to injury and illness. Despite that, he has come back seemingly as strong as ever, and finished last year at AAA with a handful of solid performances. Despite missing those two full years he will only be 23-24yo at Rochester next year. He's a LH who brings it consistently 91-94. You can see his potential in the video Tom shared along with his numbers. I don't knkw if his ceiling is a #2 or #3, but I think he will be a fixture come 2020. I don't wish bad health or poor performance on any of our currently projected SP, but between him, Mejia, Romero, Gonsalves, Berrios and others on hand, I'm really hopeful for a crowded rotation come the second half of 2019.

Nice write-up Seth! I'd just like to address some of these guys with my own thoughts, FWIW. Romero: 100% I understand various thoughts/debates about his moving to the pen, OR, moving there temporarily as he ,earns, grows and adapts. Possibly as a primary starter. I appreciate arguments concerning IP and refinement of his stuff. But we've all read reports and actually watched what he is capable of. I keep going back to the two seasons he missed. (Like Thorpe). I still say it's way too early for any sort of permanent pen move. He should be starting, or be a primary, or at least have a multiple IP role at worst. There is just too much stuff there to dismiss him as a full time starter for 2020 and beyond. Though I believe 2019 could be a "development" year, even if it involves various uses of his talent. Cave: Really liked what I saw, even if he was a big overly aggressive in the field and at the plate at times. Hey, he was a rookie! Some talk about regression, but he could easily progress as well. Littell: Not going to lie, I still don't know enough about him yet, or his ceiling. I keep envisioning a lesser Radke. But from reports, and milb numbers, vs what I saw on his promotion, I saw a kid who just wasn't ready yet. Whether it was nerves, or just not trusting in his stuff enough yet, I think he just wasn't ready. I feel the best thing for him would be a full half season at Rochester before coming up again. Stewart: I think we were all surprised when he was promoted to Rochester and then the Twins in fairly quick order. Obviously the FO likes something about him. I wish we knew what it was! That's not a slight on him, but we've only seen glimpses of the big FB and slider that were supposed to mark him as a top young arm. He looked better as a designated starter, and I saw the same ground ball tendencies. I just don't know yet what he's supposed to be, or could be. Gonsalves: I am going to repeat what I have said several times before, I EXPECTED him to struggle when he first came up. My reasoning is simple. He has always been a "pitcher" and not a thrower. He has adapted at every level, improved, and generally shown good command with outliers here and there. (Even with his rise in BB in 2018, a lot of that was individual games, and not the whole season). He's just not one of those guys who has the single overpowering FB or breaking pitch to dominate or make ML hitters really think. He looked better, much better, when made a primary his last few appearances. He may take some time to adjust, but I still like his potential as a quality 3-4 in the next year or so. Vasquez: I just don't know. Big milb numbers, but can a LHRP with a wipe out slider be anything more than a LOOGY? Can he spot his high 80 FB enough to be more? Astudillo: Saved him last for a reason! IMO, he is not only for real, but the Twins got a bit lucky. They are lucky that other teams kept passing on him because he doesn't "fit" normal labels of what they were looking for. And lucky because they almost blew it by moving him off the dish to audition other journeyman catchers at Rochester before realizing what they had in house already. I watched him a ton when they finally brought him up for good, but I did miss his appearances in the OF and 2B. He looked quiet and comfortable behind the plate. He looked solid at 3B. He has hit everywhere he has ever been, and made contact, including Rochester, where his power started to increase, and the ML level, and was raking in the Winter Leagues, last I knew. You just can't ignore his bat or solid play wherever you put him. Whether he makes the 2019 roster out of ST or begins at Rochester, I think he's a part of this team for the next few years.

Some very good takes here though I'm still getting Reed gets his shot in 2019. They like enough about him to not ditch him, despite not being on the 40. Feels like there is just something they are waiting to see. I believe a healthy Wade will excel in his 2nd time through AAA and be up at some point. So very high on Thorpe i just having this feeling he's going to keep getting better and better and be part of the 2020 rotation. I also expect to see both Gordon and Rooker. Rooker just needs to do, more or less, what he's already been doing: make adjustments and barrel up on the ball. Despite considerable youth, Gordon reached AAA for about 2/3 of 2018. He is still a bit of an enigma as we've seen glimpses of what he can do. But whether he has worn down, or pitchers have made adjustments, he's looked rather anemic the second half of the past two years. Something to consider, he's actually made steady progress level to level each year. His first 4 seasons, he moved up. 2018 was the first time he began a season where he finished the previous one, and wasn't there all that long. And, of course, he looked very good early. Presumably, he begins 2019 at Rochester, where he spent the bulk of last year. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him start adapting. You blew me away on Stashak. And then I thought about it and said "why the he'll not"? Just don't know enough about Raley yet and was disappointed in his AFL. But I think the organization likes him, his versatility, and his bat control. You could be on to something. IMO, the ship has sailed on Eades.

I truly appreciate your passions and opinion. I really do. Heck, forget Hrbek. Let's talk about Gaetti and Laudner and Faedo and the top catcher at the time...I want to say it was a kid named Baker, but memory slips. And Puckett! Let's not forget he had a couple cups of coffee before jumping to the ML level! But last we forget how Faedo and Baker turned out. Lauder was solid, but never great. Anyone remember Oelkers? He was a top LHSP rushed and never did much of anything. Remember Eisenreich? Rushed to the majors and it was discovered later he suffered from a version of Tourette syndrome. Not saying more time would have discovered this sooner, but it's a possibility to consider. Context is vastly important! When Hrbek, Gaetti, Puckett and others were jumped to the ML level, it was a different time and different ownership. Some swam, some treaded water before learning to swim, and some drowned. Because Hrbek did it, an All time Twins great, Rooker or anyone else as a top prospect should do the same? I'm sorry, I just don't buy it. In the entire history of baseball there have been, still are, those guys who just escalate more rapidly than others. Some turn out to be studs. Some flame out. Forget who was in charge of the FO at the time, doesn't matter in the context you are presenting. Let's use CF as an example as it js a lightening rod for the organization. Hunter was a stud prospect brought up early, struggled, was sent to the minors, brought back up, and finally found himself. Gomez was brought up too soon, traded to the Twins, trusted to replace Hunter, struggled, and was traded before finding himself. Hicks is the exact same example, as is Buxton, though each player is different in their own way. Have you actually looked at milb games played before promotion for Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, etc? I have. And the Twins have been pretty aggressive with those guys and others. To hand pick a few examples of guys who seem to have made it in their early 20's is very much cherry picking. The milb system has been in place for how many years now? And jts been in place for a reason. TONS of not high draft selections have turned out to be studs. An equal amount of top picks have fizzled. Rooker, Lewis and Khirilloff all have a season and a half of professional ball under their belts, regardless of age. But because each shows so much talent and potential they should thrust in to a make or break opportunity at some point in 2019? Sorry, I just don't buy it, though I appreciate your enthusiasm. The current FO promoted several guys. Romero was promoted earlier than I expected. I was stunned when Stewart went to AAA and then the major when and how he did. I haven't liked every move the new FO has made. And I've been surprised by some of the moves they have made. But they have seemed to be pretty aggressive in a lot of promotions thus far. And I really hope they continue to be that aggressive. But to compare Hrbek, or Judge, or a select few others vs others and aggressive promotion would be similar to promoting Garver two years ago when he was the Twins milb hitter of the year and ask him to sink or swim to be the next starting catcher for the Twins based solely on potential. He just wasn't another Mauer. And no matter how good he may be, trying to predict Lewis as the next A-Rod is also silly. Extreme examples I know. And I'm all about pushing prospects and developing what you have. But there is a difference in being aggressive and just blindly promoting talent and hoping they can figure it out.

Yep! For the record, I like Kepler a lot. I still believe he is just about ready to take off. I say this dure to talent,flashes and some slowly improving numbers. I also like Cave a lot. There is fair talk about his SO rare and somewhat SSS. But he is just as likely to "progress" as "regress" in his second season. From what I know and have seen and read of both guys, Kepler SHOULD outperform Cave and be the better player. Doesn't mean he is, or will be. But I agree the absolutely worst thing you can do is get wrapped up in "should". Kepler and Cave should both play and both audition. May the best candidate win...but even still...there is a role for each of them.

Agree, but object to the "flopping" comment. Injuries curtailed him for a time. Healthy, he showed nice numbers and tons of potential. The Twins were pretty aggressive promoting him when they did. He looked awesome...then average. Not uncommon for a young pitcher. All the talent in the world. He and Mejia should both be part of 2019. The question is, in what role? There is the role of designated starter. And there is the often made reference to the Cardinals way of introducing a pitcher as a RP first before transitioning back to a starter. No matter what, these two arms need to be on staff.

I return to the interview Falvey did with Souhan recently. He spoke about losing a young player if you make this kind of move, but what affect a veteran hitter could bring to the lineup, and the players around him, both initially and down the road. This move could have a very positive effect on not only the lineup, but for the young core of this team, for 2019 and 2020 and beyond. We aren't done yet. At least, I hope and assume we aren't. But I really like the energy this move brings!

THUD! Saw this scroll across the screen at work and just about jumped out of my seat! I even kinda expected it, but wasn't sure I could believe it. We get 2 yrs or 1. Our choice. We add a dangerous hitter who could/should have a positive impact on the players around him. While there are scenarios where the Twins also keep Austin and Cron, it doesn't make much sense. Somehow, one of them is gone. We still need at least one high quality one arm. Possibly a second. While I like Adrianza, I prefer him as a "second" guy off the bench. There are some legitimate guys on the market who can play all over and bring a bat better than Adrianza. Love this signing! Great late Christmas gift! Just, please, let's not stop now!

I should have been more clear when I mentioned Danny Santana. While it's true they concentrated him, primarily, at a single position, I was attempting to use him as an example of a guy who they should have, could have, developed as a multi-position player. As you once stated, Brian, if you aren't going to sign them, you should be developing them.

For the second time, THANK YOU for these profiles! Just see some content! BTW, LOVE your office or cubby hole. Very cool! Little jealous of the memorabilia on display. Grateful, but still a bit befuddled how Alex was regarded as probably the best HS bat in his draft class and fell to the Twins. Once again, what makes his 2018 season all the more impressive is he missed a full season due to injury and still exploded like he did. What I find interesting is that while his power dipped at Ft Myers...and the Florida league is known to be unforgiving for hitters, AND it was a new level...his BA and OB were at least slightly higher. I see absolutely no reason why he shouldn't be pushed to AA to begin 2019.

Just breaking them down as you presented them. Gordon: I wasn't a fan of his selection so early as he didn't posses a single tool, IIRC, beyond 55 on the 20-80 scale. I still have doubts, but have come around. My reasoning is beyond bloodlines or his off season work with former MLB greats. Honestly he's still relatively young. And it seems we've seen half season flashes of his potential the past couple of seasons. Does he wear down as the season goes on and just has to grow in to his body more? Is it promotion and adjustments? A combination of both? 2019 is big to determine if he's an eventual starter or a nice utility guy. Cron: He is a mystery. The Twins had a need at 1B with only the unproven Austin available. Forgetting college, draft status, or milb numbers, he has been a decent ML hitter with power never exceeding 409 AB. It appears be was often lost in the shuffle a bit with previous teams who had other options. He tweaks his approach, gets 500 AB for the first time, and puts up a career season. Rocco is obviously familiar with him. Some of the LH options that could be a better "fit" weren't available when he was. It was an inexpensive and smart move at the time. Late bloomer who made adjustments and finally got a chance? We shall see. Mejia: Really liked what I saw of him in 2017. Only problem was, it just seemed like he threw too many pitches and just didn't know to finish a batter/inning. IIRC, he had an injury to begin 2018 and started slow, and began with Rochester. He looked good when finally brought up, but got hurt again. Forget LH and breathing, he's still learning but has good stuff. Starter, designated starter or pen, you make room for a talented LH arm like his. Cave: I like this kid! He has good speed, real power, and just seems to love playing the game. He made some great plays in the OF, and some bad ones as well. His contact issues need to be addressed. Some talk about regression. But what about "progress"? He was still only a rookie after all. He still has to prove some things. Jury is out. But I liked a lot of what I saw. Javier: What do I know about him except for what I read? While injuries were devastating for the ML club, they seemed sympathetic to the milb system. The exception was Javier. From every single thing I read and hear, this kid is a potential stud at SS with all the tools. At worst, he's a legitimate 3B with glove, arm and bat, especially if Lewis stakes his claim at SS. What a problem to have right? If you gave me a top 5 to watch for in the system for 2019, he's in there.

Just wanted to expand on this a bit. 100% with you on flexibility and always believed in that. As I just rambled about in my previous post, LOL. Gonzalez should be a great "get" for any team. I'm actually surprised he hasn't been snatched up yet. Danny Santana was supposed to be that guy for the Twins. It didn't work out. Honestly, he is one of the biggest bummer of a Twins prospect I have seen the past few years. I really felt the Twins blew it by not keeping Goodrum. Maybe he just saw a better chance in Detroit. And he's not a star players but wouldn't he have been a nice part for the 2018 team? There is nothing wrong with Adrianza for this club, the original topic, LOL. He has done nothing to prove he is deserving of a "starter" spot. But he has shown that used on a regular basis...nkt lingering on the bench...that he can hit some, provide occasional pop, and play solid defense at multiple positions. I think he is just fine as my 13th man. But between OF, INF, C,there is room for one more addition. Marwin would be perfect! But if not him, there are still some very interesting options out there as a secondary choice. I honestly believe Astudillo is the real deal. He is just one of those guys who doesn't "fit" the description or archetype of what most feel he should be, or what most think they are looking for. The Twins got lucky. And even they almost blew it until finally figuring out late in the year. But would I just bank on him or the solid Adrianza? Absolutely not! I'd still be looking for another solid bat, versatile player to compete and challenge. And they are out there, even if you don't comit to Gonzalez.

Brian, the one are I might argue with you on probably comes down to just semantics. If we don't like "starter" vs "bench", then how about "starter" vs "reserve"? But it really is just semantics. A player doesn't have to be Trout to be an every day player. For instance, a healthy Rosario will play almost daily. As would a healthy Sano, Buxton, etc. Some guys are just better and will play almost daily. But really, we're just talking semantics, and building a roster should be way beyond that kind of thinking, and we're on the same page there. Tom Kelly, IMO, was ahead of his time, even though it was a different era. Randy Bush played a lot at DH, but he also played 1B and both OF corners. My goodness, Denny Hocking played 7 positions, including 1B once in a while! You still need, and hopefully have, "primary" players you can count on for a daily basis. But over the years, just as a fan, when I write out rosters on a piece of paper or napkin, I've always looked at the best 13 players I could come up with. Let's look again at our current roster and possible additions. What if the Twins add a veteran bat? I'd be ecstatic if Cruz was brought on board for 2 years, though it might cause us to lose Austin. But the lineup could be impacted for 2 years, and have a positive influence on the young players around him. Presumably, Khirilloff and Rooker and others would be ready within that next 2 years. Don't like That? How about Lowrie to still provide a veteran bat and play 2B and 3B? I know you agree with this, but no matter how good of a defensive OF Kepler may be, why can't he play 1B against tough RHP and let Cave play the OF? For that matter, why can't Cave just TRY 1B in ST to see if he could play there? Why can't the talented Rosario at least TRY to play some 2B, which he did in the minors, or 3B, which he did one game in 2018 and made a great play, just to see if he's an option there, at least in emergencies. Lowrie or not, unless I've just missed a bunch of signings somewhere, there are a number of guys out there still available to compete with Adrianza, who I actually like, and Astudillo, who I love, to play a role and fill in here and there. In the next 2 years, the Twins could easily have Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave, Khirilloff and Rooker all available for OF/DH/1B, not to mention a guy like Wade and maybe another option or two. Yes, you could also trade from depth/strength, but can't you also find room on a rotational basis to play most of those guys daily? Your viewpoint is one I echo. Build the best and deepest team you can and let the manager figure out how to use them. Does anyone feel sorry for Vikings coach Zimmer for having a DL so deep he can rotate up to 8 guys in to the game, with a couple reserves on the PS or IR who might compete next season? There needs to be an evaluation and re-evaluation of how to build your 13 man player roster. One way to be forward thinking and cutting edge, like our new FO is supposed to be, is making the moves to make that 13 man group as deep as it can be. Go ahead and sign Cruz, as an example, and add that big bat to produce and show some of the kids how it's done. But then go sign someone like Solarte, just as an example, who could fill in almost anywhere with a solid bat. With all due respect to Trout, or Machado, or Harper, they still come to the plate 4 or 5 times a game. They can't produce a winning lineup on their own. It has always frustrated me, and intrigued me, that the best way to win is by putting the best 9 man lineup together you could on any given day. There is nothing wrong with having star players! They make a difference. But Kirby Puckett never single handedly won a WS. When you think about TK's best teams, or Gardenhire's, there were guys who set the table, power guys, a couple solid hitter and good contact guys, and a couple guys at the bottom of the order who could still help and produce. TK teams were always excellent PH teams. And it wasn't always because a guy had a knack for it. He stated, more than once I'm sure, that he believed guys should play often to stay sharp. That it would be foolish for a guy who hadn't played in a week to come up with a big hit. Forgive my terminology, but screw me having a couple 40HR guys in the heart of my lineup if there is nobody getting OB before them or any decent hitters behind them. Give me a mix of hitting, power, OB, LH/RH/switch hitting 1-9 and I'll run with that all day long. What intrigues me and frustrates me is the Twins are so damn close to having that! YES, we have a collection of 25yo's that we are waiting on with baited breath to at least come close to their potential! But even if the magic 8 ball could tell us that will begin to happen in 2019, guys get dinged. Guys slump. Guys just need a day off. Why wouldn't you just bring in a couple smart acquisitions to compensate for that?