Well, the vast majority of picks never make it. Predicting at least one will make the majors is actually probably betting against the odds. As for the draft, it simply isn't a crapshoot. Most late round picks never get more than a cup of coffee, if that. edit: Less than 7% of pitchers taken after round 5 make this cut of getting more than a taste: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/one-in-six-draft-picks-will-click/#EbyRXcTLMKP55x2b.97 Predicting 1 in 5 will make it seems like a safe bet, neither too high, or too low.