Giving up 50 less runs is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. OTOH, if you are going to use runs scored to project more wins (i.e., pythag), you should acknowledge they over achieved their pythag last year..... I think they'll win a few more games than last year, the pitching was so bad last year than a marginal improvement just puts in them in the bottom 5-10, not the bottom of the league. The real question for me this year is about youth. Will this team finally commit to youth and learning what these prospects have or don't, or will we see old guys with no future trotted out there instead? To me, the issue is about their commitment to their own stated strategy, building through the minors. Kubel, Suzuki, Pelfrey, Willingham....those names don't make you think they are committed to their own strategy at all. Add in Tonkin sitting in AAA, and maybe Arcia going back down, and you wonder.....what exactly is their strategy?