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jtkoupal

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Everything posted by jtkoupal

  1. jtkoupal
    I agree. The rotation is in pretty good shape. Maybe a solid #2/#3 guy would be ideal to allow Odo and Pineda to occupy 4/5. Corbin, Eovaldi, Keuchel, & Richards come to mind. They are all Free Agents-to-be. The real concern needs to be relief pitchers. I think it is sufficient to say they need help in the pen, and LOTS of it. Thank you, Ted.
  2. jtkoupal
    Relief Pitchers. Relief Pitchers. And some more Relief Pitchers, please! Also, another solid starter (1-3 starter) would allow Odorizzi and Pineda to occupy 4-5, which is probably ideal. Some infield insurance is definitely a necessity too. Sanó is not a certainty to return to his All-Star form. Nick Gordon has struggled in AAA. Tyler Austin is a platoon player and Joe Mauer might retire. There only one realistic middle-infield option to start 2019 at the moment, something that will almost certainly be addressed. Certainly, you don't want Eihre Adrianza starting almost every day. A lot needs to be done. There will be money to spend, but there are a lot of holes to fill.
  3. jtkoupal
    Good to see Odorizzi pitching better. I have been critical of him for much of this season. He has a tendency to labor, suck the third time through the order, and pitch to the score. Lately, he has been much better. Hopefully, he can be next year's Kyle Gibson. Gibson started to pick up around this time a year ago, so hopefully Jake can be this year's version of that turnaround. The Twins rotation could be in very good shape for 2019.
  4. jtkoupal
    Good example. Ordinarily, stacking the lineup bottom-heavy is considered a bad idea. However, studies have shown lineup construction has minimal effect over the course of a season, so minimal it costs a team like a run, maybe. Teams will probably do this eventually. Until they do, however, it makes sense to keep using the opener.
  5. jtkoupal
    On paper, the opener strategy would be perfect for Jake Odorizzi. It's hard to adjust to that at the Major League level, which is likely why they haven't tried it with him. If I can look at his numbers and see that strategy would be beneficial for him, so can they. They know it's a good idea, but that it likely would be a disruption to start that at random in the middle of a season. Eventually, there may be an era in baseball where there are no more traditional starting pitchers. Changes like that don't happen overnight. Personally, I think the response by opponents needs to be to stack the best hitters at the bottom, negating the advantage to facing the bottom of the lineup the third time instead of the top.
  6. jtkoupal
    You evaluate him the same. He threw 6 very good innings. What does it matter if those innings are 1-6 or 2-7?
  7. jtkoupal
    Great article, Thank You! Interestingly, I went to 2 games at Progressive Field this year (I live in Pittsburgh, so Cleveland is the only convenient place to watch the Twins). I too enjoyed everything about the ballpark. My seats were up high, but I got a decent skyline view from up there. If you go back, don't miss the Jim Thome statue. If you didn't see it, it's located at the center field entrance (after you enter the ballpark). If you like BBQ, there is a good place on the first level (around the place you mentioned) to get BBQ sandwiches and BBQ *Insert Meat Here* Mac & Cheese. They have a variety of beer that I do not recall seeing in other ballparks.
  8. jtkoupal
    The Twins need to trade for Salvy Perez so that he can stop hitting homers against them! In all seriousness, though, I would be thrilled if the Twins traded for Perez. It won't happen with Castro under contract, but man would that be awesome! (especially if he hits like he always hits at Target Field )
  9. jtkoupal
    I have felt this way since day 1. I believe the Twins should continue to use the opener. However, they have to understand that the probability of retiring the top 6 hitters in any given lineup without giving up a walk or hit is very low. Realistically, one of the first three will get on base, so you bring the primary in to face the 5th batter. In most lineups, the #5 slot is where it starts to gradually ease up. However, if they are doing it a certain way, I'm sure they have good reason. Our opinions are meaningless.
  10. jtkoupal
    I believe that the expectation of bringing the primary in to face the 7-8-9 is relatively unrealistic. The likelihood of the the opener going 6-up 6-down is pretty low. With the best hitters now stacked atop the lineup in most cases, it makes more sense to let the opener pitch the first inning and then bring the primary to start against the 4th or 5th batter.
  11. jtkoupal
    Another thing, It's amazing to me how walk-prone the entire staff has been, really. Gonsalves: 17 BB in 15.1 Innings!!!! Stewart: 15 BB in 24.2 Innings Berrios (Post-ASG): 22 BB in 46.1 IP Gibson (Post-ASG): 27 BB in 61 IP Odorizzi: 64 BB in 155 IP They all look fine compared to Gonsalves, but this walk rate, especially lately, is high for all of them. Some of it is simply September fatigue. Some is that you have some young pitchers getting their feet wet. All that said, the starters/primarys have not been good at limiting walks. Some bullpen notes: Busenitz: 13 BB in 23.1 IP Moya: 12 BB in 30.2 IP Magill: 20 BB in 51.2 IP Some work to be done there too
  12. jtkoupal
    In retrospect, maybe there is a reason why Alan Busenitz was stashed away in AAA while guys like Belisle were getting innings! I'm a little bit joking, of course, but really, Buze has had a tough year with the Twins. You really notice how AAA success doesn't always correlate with MLB success. A lot of guys light up AAA. Many of them don't stick at the MLB level. When guys don't get the call when we think they should, it very likely means that they aren't as convinced it can translate to the bigs like we do. Based on his AAA numbers this year, I figured he would be in a good spot for a bullpen spot in 2019. That looks to be in doubt, as there will almost definitely be bullpen additions in the offseason, and probably several of them.
  13. jtkoupal
    Maybe the answer could be to change the rules with options. Maybe its 2 option years instead of 3. Maybe you give them a finite number of options instead of option years. Maybe you can't option them if they have been on the active 25-man roster for X number of consecutive days. Not much deep thought, but just a couple ideas I jotted down on the spot.
  14. jtkoupal
    I have been very critical of Jake Odorizzi for much of this season, and that criticism hasn't been misguided. Yesterday he stepped up in a big way against a very good team. I have long said the ability has been there, but the execution hasn't. It's only one start, but hopefully we see more of this Odorizzi for the rest of this year and into 2019. He is a big part of the Twins plans and for him to build on that for the next few starts would be huge.
  15. jtkoupal
    I agree, Seth. People like to stigmatize being "just a number" in a business or other organization. It doesn't have to be a bad thing. I am nothing more than a number at my large urban college. That isn't an issue to me. At the end of the day, baseball is a business and everyone is expendable. Anyone on that roster (with exception to no-trade clauses) would be traded if the return was convincing enough. They are business assets. It's important for the players to feel appreciated, however. If that doesn't come from Falvey and Levine, that's ok, but it needs to come from somebody. Ryan was good at that, but he wasn't good with analytics. Different strengths and weaknesses.
  16. jtkoupal
    I have been optimistic about the Twins chances to compete in 2019. That optimism is waining. -Good pitchers fading down the stretch. -Prospect pitchers aren't ready. -The bullpen is a disaster. -Fizzling core. -Front office isn't on the same page Despite the Buxton drama, it would not be in his best interest to not play hard. The snub could impact his performance and attitude, but that would not work in his favor either. He can still be a productive player for the next four seasons in Minnesota.
  17. jtkoupal
    Yeah I get that... I'm not referring to just this one individual start. I'm referring to his numbers for the whole season. I've been saying for some time that Odorizzi is a good pitcher, but that his role can't be managed traditionally. Some of the strategies that are being proposed (Opener, Piggybacking, etc.) are ideal to maximize Jake's productivity. He's good in smaller bursts (75 pitches) and has good stuff. The lack of command has a confounding effect on the third time through the order problem. Better command likely would lead to lower pitch counts and longer starts. But unless Odo cuts down on the walks/wildness and pitches more efficiently, he will only ever be a 5-inning pitcher. Some of that is on him, and some is on Paul Molitor and how he uses him.
  18. jtkoupal
    Jake Odorizzi is cementing himself as another disappointment for 2018. In 29 Starts: -4.57 ERA -1.361 WHIP -3.7 BB/9 -1.2 bWAR -96 ERA+ Slightly below average pitcher, but can't get anyone out the third time through the order (1.185 OPS), falls off a cliff after 75 pitches (.993 OPS 76-100 pitches), and tends to pitch to the score (.916 OPS with 6+ runs of support)
  19. jtkoupal
    Sign Mauer. Rooker may not be ready to be an everyday player yet. Sign Joe to be the stopgap and platoon him with Austin.
  20. jtkoupal
    Odorizzi is so frustrating. Remember what I keep saying about his usage? He hasn't change a bit and at some point, you have to realize that he is who he is. He is a 5-inning pitcher. His numbers confirm that.
  21. jtkoupal
    Joe Mauer does have a wRC+ of 116 vs LHP, which increases his value to the Twins because of their futility against lefties at times this season. That being said, Tyler Austin needs to hit against lefties too, and therefore somebody needs to hit against righties (Logan Morrison, anyone?) It wouldn't 100% shock me to see the Twins bring somebody else in for first base next year. Mauer only has a wRC+ of 92 vs RHP, Austin has a wRC+ of 161 vs LHP and only 90 vs RHP. Clearly, there is a need for a bat vs RHP. I doubt it will be Logan Morrison...
  22. jtkoupal
    Buxton won't be back until the last week-and-a-half. At this point, you gotta keep him down there and get an extra year out of him in 2022.
  23. jtkoupal
    Tyler Austin has 6 HR and a Slugging Percentage around .700 in 13 games with the Twins. I'm not going to overreact to this hot streak and put him in the Hall of Fame, but he should, at least, fend off Logan Morrison for 2019. One could make a case for a Morrison/Austin platoon at DH/1B rotating with Mauer (should he return) but having 3 first baseman is a little redundant. Especially given what Austin has done so far, it's increasingly harder to imagine a scenario that includes Logan Morrison in 2019.
  24. jtkoupal
    The decision ultimately is Joe's, and family should trump baseball. However, he and the Twins have everything to gain by him returning for at least one more season. *There are no clear-cut processors that cold jump in and take over first base in 2019. *The Twins will have another chance to go after the Indians in the AL Central (the Wild Card won't be any easier next year.) *Defense is great and is a good leadoff hitter Up to Joe, but if you can get him at a realistic cost, keep him.
  25. jtkoupal
    I like the "special sauce" comment. It's not the most analytical of terms, but I get what it means. Think of a coach like Bill Belichick. Like him or hate him, there is no denying that he is a very effective coach. After all, he was able to get Randy Moss to behave. Coaches like that can get consistently high-level production from less-talented players (and of course, having Tom Brady running the show makes a difference too!) Paul Molitor's career as a manager has been saved by two really good months, May 2015 and August 2017. May 2015 was the only springboard back to "perceived" relevance that year, while August 2017 was really what propelled the team back to the postseason (albeit for just one day.) I have long felt, though I know my opinion means nothing, that Molitor has never really been Falvine's "guy." I believe they would like to be a more analytically-driven organization, yet Paul Molitor is still has some roots in old-school thinking. Molitor has shown the ability to overcome some of that, but it is difficult to ask a Hall-of-Famer in his sixties to change his ways.
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