twinsfan34

Parker, Thanks for that first person interview. I'm a member of SABR and at every annual SABR Convention since 2001, the committee has recognized a baseball executive who has demonstrated a lifetime commitment to professional baseball scouts and scouting and player development history with presentation of the Roland Hemond Award. The 2013 recipient? Terry Ryan. I do recognize that Bill Smith was with the organization for 20+ years and thus probably has similar thinking as Terry Ryan, Radcliff, et al. Afterall, those were 20+ years together. So these 90 loss seasons are somewhat curious as a result of the layover of during Bill Smith's tenure. Thankful for some of the international signings Bill Smith had (Sano, etc). I'm not too hot on Target Field as a whole. Wish it was more friendly to lefties. For Mauer now, but also as far as fewer players are lefties and we could easily stack our team to be left-handed for those 81 home games. Ultimately, as horrible as it is to try to watch Twins games sometimes, I'm hopeful for some growth signs in 2014 and very excited about what could happen in 2015 and beyond.

A look at the 30 homerun .300 average players by position over the past 4 years.

I actually am OK with not being anti-climatic - if you have that many good sets of eyes in agreement on these guys - it's probably a highly likely probability it will/is going to happen.

Completely shocked if [buxton] is not in the big leagues by July?! I like it.

In lieu of the possible trade rumors (and likely just rumors) of the Cardinals availability of starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller in hopes of finding a top shortstop. The 2014 rule 5 Draft in June is already being touted as a pitcher heavy draft. The amount of high school pitchers throwing 92+ mph is easily 15 and counting, while the college pitchers heavily populating preliminary mock drafts with some showing as many as 15 1st round college pitchers taken already. It's early I know. Some will fall, but others will rise. All that said. The Lance Lynn or Shelby Miller trades for the likes of Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus leaned towards the Cardinals, yes, the Cardinals, likely having to 'sweeten the pot' to get a top shortstop as they appear to be more limited and thus, by demand more so than historical value, appear to have a greater weighted value in 2014 and indefinitely until there's more shortstops. For perspective, only five full-time (qualified) shortstops hit .280 or above this year. Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Evereth Cabrera, Johnny Peralta, Jordy Mercer, and Jose Iglesias would have made that 11 over .280 had they had enough at-bats. All-in-all, of qualified shortstops, only eight every day shortstops hit over .260. The 2012 season saw 10 shortstops hit over .260, 2011 had 14, and 2010 had 10 respectively. So it's not terribly down, but nonetheless, there seems to be a shared perception SS quality is down. I'm all for the Twins getting another top tier SP - although, our farm system seems to have too many starters vying for starts already as seen in Top 50 Twins Prospects 16-20 thread below below)

Is the WHAV for all pitches or only fastballs?

The New York Yankees extended qualifying offers to three of their 13 free agents. Robinson Cano, Hiroki Kuroda, and Curtis Granderson. Cano, they clearly were wanting to sign to a multi-year deal before he would hit free agency. Kuroda, they are perhaps not wild about as a 38 year old, but for $14M he's as good a bet as any for a 'decent' season. But Granderson, it would appear that the Yankees extended a qualifying offer to Granderson in hopes of jumping into one of the deepest pitching drafts (pre-liminary) in recent memory. The White Sox were rumored to be interested in Granderson before the QO was made. They coals might have cooled a bit in lieu of the recent news. But, I can't help, but wonder, how serious the Yankees were about signing Granderson. Sorta have a feeling they hope he gets signed rather than coming back for 1 yr at $14.1M. The Reds look to be taking that approach with Choo as GM Walt Jocketty is on record saying if Choo accepted it'd make it very difficult for the team financially. "We thought about it quite a while," Jocketty said. "We'll still be able to attempt to try and sign him, but if he ended up accepting, it would be very tough to fit it into the budget." So, they're clearly hoping to hop on that Draft Pick Gravy Train. That brings me to the other players who received Qualifying offers. Which teams, if any, do you feel are almost 'hopeful' the player who received the QO walks? In all, 13 players received qualifying offers prior to Monday's deadline. Here's the full list: Qualifying offer extended: Carlos Beltran, Cardinals Robinson Cano, Yankees Shin-Soo Choo, Reds Nelson Cruz, Rangers Stephen Drew, Red Sox Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox Curtis Granderson, Yankees Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees Brian McCann, Braves Kendrys Morales, Mariners Mike Napoli, Red Sox Ervin Santana, Royals

If you do nothing at all, just scroll to the bottom to see the stride length/deliveries of Nolan Ryan and Tim Lincecum.

Wow. That is a super short stride! Like the previous poster, I don't know much about stride length. Found this on Tim Lincecum, hope it's helpful. How Tiny Tim Became a Pitching Giant Would love to hear from anyone who finds or knows of any 'best practices' of pitching mechanics.

My apologies, someone already had started this/a similar thread. For that, go here. http://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-talk/9338-thoughts-hypothesized-trade.html

If you're the Twins, do you make a call, and, if so, what's your offer? http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/03/cardinals-could-trade-lance-lynn-or-shelby-miller-this-offseason-for-a-new-shortstop/ If I'm Texas, I call them and offer Andrus.

If he's clean of PEDs (I had no idea he was even linked) I didn't see his name in the Mitchell report. List of Major League Baseball players named in the Mitchell Report - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The guy was a young stud. At age 18 he dominated the minor leagues and was a legit player by the time he was 20 in MLB. Great defense, 1500 RBIs, 400 HRs, and possibly 3,000 hits? If he gets the 3,000 and PED free, absolutely. If he gets 2,800 hits. Yes, by his 3rd yr of eligibility.

I love Joe Mauer. He's 30 and he's going to be 31 starting next season. Catchers who are good receivers can 'hang around' for a number of years. Mauer would be able to DH plenty well. I'm sure he'd hit .300+ every year. I'm not one to say if that's a power number the Twins would want at DH. I doubt Mauer would ever like to leave MN. He had a chance to as a High School prospect, but didn't. He had a chance as a pro, but didn't. Yankees would have paid him even more than the generous contract the Twins gave him. So I guess my hope is that by the time Mauer is 33 (2016(, the Twins are in the discussion as early season as one of a couple teams to represent the AL in the World Series. We'd have to sign 1-2 starting pitchers who are in the mix that year. And the hopefuls of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Vargas, Harrison, Kepler, Hicks, Arcia, Polanco, Santana, Walker, et al plus a few veteran signings are able to put up 5+ runs a game. I did some more queries...going back to 1990 Drafts. It seems that more college players make the pros, but they don't perform as well as the High School players. (Based on WAR) It's only preliminary. The likelihood is for college players, you only have to improve a 'small' amount to get a cup of coffee in the pros, whereas a high schooler has much more to do. There's a number of other factors along the way. The other note is that college pitchers are also more often thrown into being a reliever if they don't see them likely to make the pros quickly. And the thought, perhaps, is that 3-4 more years of college didn't develop that 3rd pitch, so bullpen it is as they're inching towards 24-26 years of age before they hit The Show. High school athletes, it seems teams are more willing to try to develop that 3rd and/or 4th pitch. So if that goes well for them, they become starters and if that development (professional coaching versus college coaching) goes very well, they also get a greater payback than what seems to be a large amount of college pitchers doing bullpen duty for a various number of seasons. (harder to earn WAR) I need to look up that book/study. I found Paul DePodesta. He isn't the GM, but since joining the Mets in 2010, they went very 4YR player heavy in 2010, but have deviated greatly in 2011, 2012, and 2013. And in 2013 he drafted (or the Mets) drafted more HS players than college players, including their top 4 picks. He opted for the top high school hitter, Dominic Smith, over the top college hitter ("most polished") in D.J. Peterson. Peterson looks great, btw. Thanks for doing this study by the way. Fun stuff to think on. This is probably why Terry Ryan isn't 'sold out' on sabermetrics/analytics/etc. Ironically, as much crap as he gets, SABR gave him the Roland Hemond Award, which recognizes the baseball executive who has demonstrated a lifetime commitment to professional baseball scouts and scouting, and player development history.

I give you, perspective: [h=1]Promise of MLB stardom won't keep Byron Buxton off lawnmower for hours of yard work[/h]

I'd give him a Correia contract. (Pelfrey was already taken)

A quick run through... I found it difficult on how to deal with players who were signed out of HS in other countries - since they weren't through the Rule 4 Draft, I kept them separate. Breakdown of Pitching Prospects who received at least 1 Cy Young vote in the last 10 years (2003-2012) follows as: [TABLE=width: 214] Type Total Cy Young 4YR 57 8 I-FA 6 0 CC 9 0 HS 56 8 I-HS 29 4 I-FA (HS) 1 0 [/TABLE] I don't see that as really showing one is particularly better than the other. Maybe a stat on HS/College picks in the top 10 rounds, top 20 rounds, etc in terms of making it to the majors as well? But over the past 10 years, it's 8 CY Young's a piece. If you count International High School players (there are those who went to college as well - mostly in Asian countries) it would definitely say pursue high school athletes. All that to say...I'd have no problem if the Twins draft Tyler Kolek next year at #5.

Totally agree. Based on interviews by Byron Buxton, he said Low-A pitchers are basically 'locating' a fastball and a changeup anyway. That seems to be what Thorpe already does quite well - noting his BB/SO per IP numbers. High-A and the Arizona Fall League pitchers will mix in more sliders and curves. And if they can begin to locate them, go to AA. So, if Buxton's assessments are correct (they seem in line). It would seem that Thorpe would be in the mix for that A-/A+ level.

I have done some preliminary research on this...but since maybe it's already been done. So college pitchers are more "successful" as a whole than high school pitchers? - By 'successful' - do they mean made it to the pros? - What they do when they get there? ERA's under 3.00, WHIP, etc - Career numbers? Also, does this include only during the Draft ERA? or 1986 on? I have done some studies on position players, and it would seem the opposite. Are international amateur free agents (ages 16-18) in a separate category than 'high school' kids? Though, most of which are in high school, only in the Dominican, Puerto Rico, Venezeula, etc.

This kid, along with Buxton seem so down to earth. That's one thing I'm really enjoying about seeing these 'kids' develop as players. They don't seem to just be looking for the money or the fame. It's a joy and there's a humility in how they do things, a respect for the sacrifices others have done so they could get to the point where they are. Ultimately, I think things like that will really help their development in the long run as determination, will, and acknowledgement of having to work hard and working to give a gift to someone else often results in greater results. Very refreshing, thanks for going out of your way to get this interview.

I can follow that logic.

It took Tampa 6 years of good drafts (fruitful drafts) to get a good thing going. Twins need 2 more strong drafts to get a team in 2-3 years that will start cranking out .500 seasons or better. Producing at least a few players each year afterwards will be required to put them over the top and also stay competing for longer than 6 years - when free agency starts to decimate those teams after service time is fulfilled.

Two?! Really?! I'm not even understanding why we lost one to sign out own guy... Really hated that trade the day it was announced. And now, in retrospect, I should have an even more visceral reaction. A horrible, horrible, horrible trade.

Seems more like a factual statement that it is enforced by MLB. And he used 'sacrifice'...and it wasn't exactly non-nonchalant. And to the point of the previous poster, it's a lot more valuable pick than in previous years where compensatory picks were handed out like candy on Holloween. It's also looking like a very good draft. But you are quoting Wolfson correctly... Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson24 Oct Terry Ryan confirmed to me that he would sacrifice his 2nd rd pick to sign a FA. Still seems like a long-shot. Maybe Ervin Santana. #mntwins Per the ESPN1500 inteview: Would you give up your 2nd round pick to sign a free-agent? If he's good. Really? That surprises me. Sure, if he's good. Depends on who it is and longevity and age and all that stuff. I don't think there's a club that wouldn't give up a second-rounder to get quality back, and longevity. That means you'll have to spend some money. As you know, the richest outside free-agent contract you've given out is 3-years/$21M to Willingham. If you sign a guy who has been tendered, you'll crush that contract. Prepared to do that? Depends who it is. I have flexibility with payroll. The rest of the interview is worth reading for other topics and overall context.

+1 No shot if the guy is offered a Qualifying Offer (loses 2nd RD Draft pick).

Even with the clubs who have a bunch of analytics guys ignore at 95% of their advice anyway. It's like 'we got a stats guy, check' now go sit in the corner and be quiet. Twins have Jack Goins. Probably a few other guys he gets data/info from. I have degrees in Chemistry & Mathematics, almost another in Physics. My Career is in analytics. Find someone who has connections with the Twins front office, I'll work for the Twins for free.