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His reply is horsesh*t the only way you get winstrol into your system is on purpose. An old roommate of mine was a doper, this stuff is a very common steroid. Practically a standard substance for dopers. We are not talking about creatine or adderall here.

I don't think any of the players outside of maybe Perkins cares about Santana suspension. The only ones who are wearing this is the front office and Santana. The coaches just have to get the players to beat overall averages and expectations.

WTH, Coleman would have been our second best bullpen arm, who cares about managing the 25 man roster when we are carrying 5 players who by all accounts appear to be replacement level, if that. Unless he's hurt, I think it's a bad move passing on him. Who are they waiting for?

I didn't forget about Arcia, it's just he is somewhat enigmatic. Arcia is always trying to go yard, so I don't think he'll have as much pressure on him to produce. He played in fewer games than I thought last year, so maybe you're right. He could hit 30 this year, but if it's a Mark Reynolds type 30 HRs then it won't mean nearly as much. He's certainly got the talent to do more than that, so we'll see.

This is a fun time of year for armchair GM's. We get to break down the offseason moves, sound off about opening day roster decisions, and make guesses about the coming year. So, with that in mind, I thought it would be a good idea to get a crystal ball thread going so we could get everyone's takes down in one place. Here's my take… The Twins should improve this year, but are still at least a year away from any type of contention (probably more like 2 years). We didn't do enough in FA to improve our run production (i.e. power) or address problems in the bullpen. Our 2015 rotation looks ok on paper, but it's mostly the same names as last year which (outside of Hughes) provided lackluster results. Gibson will likely improve. I'm not expecting Santana to put up the same type of numbers and I'd be shocked if Nolasco turned in a sub-4.25 ERA. This team really needs a middle of the lineup bat and Torii isn't that. However, I do think he'll be a serviceable bat in the lineup. It will be fun for casual fans to see him again, but I thought that roster spot really needed to be given to someone who could provide more power. Unfortunately, there wasn't many options there in FA. Morse or Cuddyer would have been good, but they aren't really outfielders at this point. Cruz would have been perfect, but four years is probably too long for our situation and he's a poor OF. We are going to have to really scratch for our runs this year. That means working counts, situational hitting, and smart base running. There's also going to be a lot of pressure on Vargas and Plouffe to deliver some power. Hard to see how this offense gets into the top half of the AL. The player I'm highest on is probably Eduardo Escobar. I think he's going to have a really nice .290/.340/.420 type season, and of course it will be fun to see if Vargas and Santana can become top-tier players. I think they both have the ability, but I'm not expecting huge things… just cautiously optimistic. I also think Schafer will prove to be one of the better leadoff hitters in the league (even if he doesn't start the season there). And then the bullpen… adding Stauffer and Boyer are pretty ho-hum additions. We have starters who could be bullpen studs (May, Meyer, maybe Pelfrey, Berrios, others in lower levels), but the starting bullpen group doesn't impress much outside of Perkins. If we bring those young starters up, the pen could be a strength but at what cost? That might jeopardize their future as starters. I guess I would have liked to see at least another 1 or 2 bigger name NRI's this spring or guys brought in on smaller deals to fill out the thin bullpen. Obviously, the relievers need to miss more bats this year than last season. On the other hand, its hard to fault the front office for not spending on the bullpen coming off four bad seasons. My picks to surprise (above what is expected by most on the board) are: Escobar, Schafer, and Dozier (who I think makes the All-Star team or at least puts up All-Star caliber numbers). I'm not real high on any of the pitchers, but Hughes should have another great season and I expect Gibson to be one of the better pitchers in the league too (top 1/4 or 1/3 in AL). I think Santana and Nolasco will turn out to be bad investments - I hope they prove me wrong of course, but that's just my gut feeling. And I think we'll see Trevor in the rotation by May day. He'll have his ups/downs, but wind up with a sub 4.60 ERA and a +7.5 K/9. Overall, I'm guessing 70 to 75 wins. Getting over .500 would reflect very well on Molitor and his staff. In fact, the best part of this year will be seeing what Molitor, Neil Allen, and Guardado bring as coaches.

I'm guessing it went along the lines of: TR: Mr. Pelfrey, I understand your frustration. You've worked hard to come back from injuries and came into camp ready to compete for a starting spot. But you have you to understand, Milone is a quality pitcher too, and our only real option for a LH starter. MP: I know I can be a quality starter. What are my chances to do that here in MN? TR: Well, as the long man in the pen, you'd be the first option to jump in the rotation if somebody goes down or falters. Assuming you pitch well in the pen of course. If we can't find a spot for you, I'll look around for another team that has an opening. However, you are under contract to pitch for this club and we have invested a great deal of money in you. You're a professional and I know you'll do your best regardless of whether you're starting or coming out of the pen. MP: Ok. Good enough for me. Glad we're on the same page.

Branch Rickey's Little Blue Book... quotes and stories... got it when I was in H.S., still one of my top 10 or 20 favorite books. He was an amazing man, no doubt, and a revolutionary GM.

That is hiliarious! I'd love to hear his take on March Madness.

For those of us who don't live near downtown, I thought it would be helpful to start a thread to connect people who are going to the Winter Meltdown so we can carpool or share a cab back home. I'll be attending and live in Savage, so if you're interested in sharing a ride to or from the Meltdown, let me know (PM or reply to this thread). Looking forward to the event, last year was a lot of fun.

If somebody wanted to hire you for your dream job and said we want YOU not the guy we have now. Why on earth would you care what they do with him? That's not up to Maddon. Sure you can feel bad for the guy, but there's nothing he can do. The Cubs wanted Maddon as their manager. End of story. I'm having a hard time understanding why there's this made up controversy when Renteria is let go but nobody says anything when dozens of other managers get fired. It looks like some people want to throw stones at the Cubs FO and Maddon I think.

But his average (and slugging) were down largely because teams did a better job positioning against him.

Wow. Only 2 comments for our 3rd manager in nearly 30 years? Of course, everybody knew it would be Molitor because "his time has come" and he's a local legend. It's hard not to drink the kool-aid, but there are two things that bug me about installing Molitor (which I hope I'm completely wrong about). 1. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. I'm sure he'll bring his own personality to managing, but even if we get a new pitching coach its mostly a continuation of the old guard. The FO says they are sick of losing and we can't keep doing what we've been doing, so I'm a little nervous that they've chose to do exactly that. and the biggest nagging fear I have... 2. Molitor was the guy largely responsible for player development and instilling fundamentals. Aside from the dreadful pitching, the biggest knock on this team has been the lack of fundamentals and lack of development of some players. Santana and Vargas were good this year, but Arcia continued to have the same poor approach at the plate. Molitor says they work with guys on this throughout the year, but the results were not very good. Whether it's Joe Mauer not being able to pull a ball in the air or Chris Colabello standing 4 feet off the plate for 3 weeks before Tony Oliva pointed that out... these are things that are on Molitor, Steinbach, and Brunansky as much as Gardy. More than payroll or free agent pitchers or high velo relievers, what this team REALLY needs is a better player development plan. You've got to improve on players' weaknesses as they advance because at the MLB level the competition can exploit those weaknesses.

Thanks so much for posting this glunn! I have to agree, I'm not impressed, though as another poster said there is no spin left for this team. The biggest things for me were things like, "Arica strikes out too much"… and we tried to address that how, it's obvious, how are we going to fix it? Or talking about other teams, the drafting of the Cards/Giants and player acquisition of the A's… do we have our people studying how these teams have succeeded in these areas? They could tell me they were going to increase the payroll to $140M this year and I still wouldn't be excited. As usual, any top-line star is not coming here unless we massively overpay, meaning we have to do an effective job of finding lower-tier free agents or waiver wire guys.

Well JB, if this is development, I'd say the pace is glacial. I had to chuckle reading really hardcore fans so happy to see the team essentially say no comment to the question, "are you doing any in-depth analysis?" This isn't the A's or the Cardinals here, the Twins have been one of the worst teams in the league for the last 3 years. The poster who mentioned the quant hedge fund manager was (comedic) gold. Of course he wouldn't give away his model, it works! Why are the Twins guarding their methods so closely? C'mon, their nickname with the local media is 'dumpster fire.' Ok, I'm being a little glib, of course we don't want to tell the opposition how we prepare to beat them (exactly). However, this team has been TERRIBLE and spent a lot of money last offseason but got the same result this year. So, yeah, I think it's time to show your work a bit. But the issue of disclosure is not on Jack, that's on TR. Jack can't talk about what TR doesn't allow him to. However, compare the piece on the Pirates (who have been a very good team in maximizing talent) versus this one on the Twins (who have really seen poor returns on free agent investment and done poorly on trades/etc in recent years). It says a lot.

That's my point. I don't know anything about what Jack Goin is or isn't doing, but the coaching staff is looking into things deeper. It doesn't matter what Jack does if the field staff or FO don't use his stuff. And that's not to say analytics are to be used in every instance, but the Pirates seem to be making it work, particularly on the pitching side. I think your points are well said and I agree about our next manager... I've thought that for a long time, which is always why I've always wished the FO would explain, specifically, how the club is going about improving WRT to the methods they use. If they are trade secrets, they haven't been worth anything the last three years so you might as well talk about them.

I doubt it. I'm sure they are using analytics in some capacity, but I think it's more at the level of spray charts and average against R/L. Those things are simple but have merit. However, the Pirates are going much deeper. And that data is used (and understood) on the field and in the GM's office. Big difference. On the coaching change... if we replace Gardy with somebody who is going to approach managing the same way, that's like showing up to work with a different tie and expecting different results.

Great thread... getting back to the issue at hand though. Grantland did a fantastic piece on how the Pirates use analytics: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/pittsburgh-pirates-mike-fitzgerald-mit-sabermetric-road-show/ I encourage you to read that. When you're done with that, read the book "Talent is Overrated" specifically the part about deliberate practice. Or just google "deliberate practice". Then think about how the Twins do things (that is to say, if it's not in the book of TK, we don't follow it). With that you will have a full understanding of why this team has underperformed and despite some talented youth is unlikely to be in playoff contention anytime soon (if this is what the competition is doing). These things disturb me even more than the Twins record the last three years. Much more in fact.

I agree with Boom Boom. Surely it's no coincidence that this team has been awful the last several years and the baseball equivalent of cheerleaders seemed like a legit way to hold onto viewership. The execution has been something else entirely. With the fatherly approach of Bremer and Co. the TV promo's are extremely awkward. Honestly, how do you not cringe during those if you're in the Twins media relations department? There is no doubt in my mind it is turning off more people than it... turns on (let's just say "keeps interested). I'm fine with the Erin Andrews of the world, I think their involvement is great. But the FSN Girls are another thing entirely... and this is the 18-34 male demographic speaking. If these young ladies are supposed to be role models for young girls, then the Twins have badly missed the mark. If they are supposed to attract men to club events at bars/etc. that's a different thing. Either way, they are not succeeding and news flash... you can't take both approaches simutaneously. Overall, I think the team's marketing department does a good job, but this thing is a #fail.

Really interesting to read the comments here. Lots of people electing not to renew their season tickets, and the Delta/Budweiser thing is really big. Do we know how much money that is per year? I too rely on stubhub and other sites to get tickets. I haven't really done the research to see how much I'm saving, but I'd guess it's significant. Plus, then I can go to games when I have time, not when I have to. I won't care about whether this team wins or loses until A. they change the leadership or B. put together a wipeout team, and even then I'll be skeptical. We had some really good teams in the mid-2000's, but we always fell short. I suspect a lot of that had to do with TR and coaching. I'll still watch a few games on TV (mostly to see the young hitters, I've watched Mauer flip enough singles to left, I'm good on that). And I'll probably attend 2-3 games a year if I can get tickets at a steep discount.

Sorry to steer this game thread back on-topic before its archived, but I wanted to point out there is a good chance Gardy nearly cost this team a win. Bunting in the first inning after a leadoff double was not a smart move.

That's probably fair. And it's not realistic to expect that any coach will get the best out of every player, and that none of them will go on to have success in other organizations. But again, what is the process for improvement? That's what I'm more interested in. TR hasn't given Andy much to work with, there's no question about that. But they've also been very, very bad. So there's plenty of blame to go around on the pitching side, from the GM to the coaches to the players. For me, the most outrageous moment was last year when Colabello was mired in a horrible slump and didn't turn it around until a call from Tony Oliva (or maybe it was Carew) told him to move closer to the plate. That is practically unforgiveable and it speaks volumes about a much deeper issue.

But is that because Hughes is having such a stellar FIP year? I mean, he has been awesome this year and better than his ERA suggests, but there's still four other guys going out there. Gibson has been solid too, but I wouldn't say he has been way better than his ERA (without looking at his FIP).

There is zero accountability in this organization. Loyalty is one thing, but it has to be loyalty with a REASON. Like they are loyal because "Gardy and Andy have been busting their ass to squeeze every last drop of production out of this roster"... c'mon - that ain't happening! They've been phoning it in for years. The only reason they ever had any success at all is because of what this organization does really well: Scout. We are better than most other organizations at finding rough-cut diamonds in the wild. And from the late 1990's to the early/mid 2000's, we almost strung enough of them together to get a ring. Or maybe we just got lucky, in any case a good jeweler knows if you want to build a winning timepiece you have to eventually fill in around those pieces. Painfully extending the metaphor, you can't make a 10 carat ring with five 1-carat diamonds. And you've got to have somebody who can bring it all together. Gardy/Andy are way, way over their head in today's game. (Some of the) Other teams probably know twice as much about the Twins as those two. Exhibit: Worley. I have zero faith in the Twins until - like the Vikings - there is some management installed that will create some accountability. And I'm not just saying that because they are 1-0... it's been Zimmer's MO from day one. The Twins keep doing failing the same way, year after year. I like loyalty, we all do, but not when its so clear that this group is phoning it in. Pretty soon it becomes nepotism or cronyism, whatever you want to call it. But if I'm so wrong about this, and there is magic happening behind the scenes - I'd LOVE(!) to be proven wrong. Tell us about the 2 hour film sessions and opponent dossiers. Show us the (specific) development plan+journal for even 4 players. If you've been this terrible for this long, it's not unreasonable to start checking people's work. Show me the comprehensive and systematic plan for improvement and I'll tell everyone I know the Twins aren't worth writing off.... but that stuff ain't happening. It's fly by the seat of your pants, squint and spit, decision making. That is NOT worth my time or my money. The Twins franchise will always be number one in my heart, but I'm waiting for it to get its sh** together before I start to actually care. And it's not about the talent on the field - it's about the process. Because without that, even a talented team will fall short. The Vikings have absolutely proven that.

Little late to the thread but loved the article. If Schafer keeps this up, he's got to be next year's LF. End of story. Yes, he has a terrible track record, but I think there is reason for hope. As Parker stated, he's getting regular ABs (probably for the last time unless he produces). The impact of getting regular playing time is hard to overstate. Guys who sit on the bench for weeks or who are trying to "break" into a lineup often have a different approach than a regular starter. You don't walk your way into a lineup, outside of maybe Oakland. You hit your way on. Couple that with being rusty and over anxious, and you end up rolling over a lot of pitches, hitting pitcher's pitches, and failing to square them up. So his BABIP is .380. Maybe it will regress a bit, but we're talking about one of the fastest players in the league who hits left-handed and is going to the opposite field more. In Ichiro's 27-35 year old seasons he had a .357 BABIP. So maybe it doesn't have to regress so much?

I was referring to when he was on first with a runner on third and 2 outs. Didn't see that other play.