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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    There is a critical assumption here that Shields is the 3 WAR starter from 2014 vs the 1 WAR starter from 2015. If not you given up Plouffe and a top 100 prospect and added $17M to payroll for a 1 WAR starter and a LHRP. When a 33y/o SPs performance drop it could just be an off year or it could be the inevitable decline. May is still in the pen and adding Berrios requires an injury. Put Nolasco in the bullpen. Start May. Trade Pluffe for value (you decide what that means). Keep Polanco at least for now. Put the $17M toward Upton, Cespedes, Gordon or Fowler and make Rosario your 4th OF or a trade chip once Kepler is established. The net is May or Berrios in the rotation are likely better than Shields over the next 3 years. Any of the OF options mentioned are better than Upton. We pick up assets for Plouffe and keep Polanco.
  2. Major League Ready
    It also a little easier to send a 13M/yr guy to the bullpen as opposed to a 22M guy
  3. Major League Ready
    I thought the Padres ran him through waivers last year but I could be mistaken. He certainly has value just not 3/65. I hesitate to guess what he would get as a FA. Lackey got 2/32 but he was much better than Shields last year.
  4. Major League Ready
    You make a good argument. Maybe they cant get rid of Nolasco even eating half his contract. No doubt the best case scenario is he rebounds and we trade him at the 2016 deadline. He could be moved to middle relief when Berrios is ready if he does not bounce back. That's probably the best way to manage our assets.
  5. Major League Ready
    There relievers are gone now but they were options when this thread started. I was assuming the same premise used here frequently that we can get any FA we want if we offer the money. Granted, this is fantasy baseball and was offered more in concept that reality. The premise is still valid. Why do I want to take on even more risk and assure that there is one rotation spot for May / Duffey / Berrios for the next 3 years. I think it makes more sense to have May pitch 180 innings instead of 60 innings. IMO, the team would be better over the course of the next 3 years with some combination of May/Duffey/Berrios (maybe Meyer) over the next 3 years and no James Shields or Ricky Nolasco than we would be with James Shields. Add an intelligent use of the $41/M over the next 3 years and I don’t think it is even close. The option without Shields also has less risk as it depends on 2 of Duffey/May & Berrios working out. As always you are looking at the immediate term. I guess we could trade Gibson. Should we trade a 27 y/o who was better than Shields last year and is also a guy coming into his best years as opposed to a guy who is probable to be in decline phase?
  6. Major League Ready
    I think there is a much better alternative than to make our 2yr/25M problem a 3yr/63M problem. With the crazy money going to FA SPs, you have to believe there is a team that would take Nolasco if we paid 12 or the 25M owed him. So, instead of trading for Shields, I take the $41M saved a buy 3 very good relievers for 3 years. Then, I have room for 3 of Gibson, Duffey, Berrios, and May instead of only having room for two of them for the next 3 years. Every single one of them is likely better than Shields in 2017 & 2018. If you don’t like the bullpen angle, put the $41M toward signing Sano to an extension now.
  7. Major League Ready
    This is a very simplistic view from a financial perspective. The absence of a cap is irrelevant unless you presume all teams have the same spending capacity regardless of revenue. Teams with similar or less revenue than the twins are trying to compete with organizations with literally twice the spending capacity. Production per dollar spent is extremely important when a team can spend twice as much per player on the roster. That’s why some of us value production per dollar spent. BTW … You also completely ignored the fact that he was under contract with his Korean team for two more years. They allowed him out of his contract to what I presume is a considerably more lucrative contract and his former team was compensated for losing his services. You are only look at one side of the equation.
  8. Major League Ready
    Your argument makes sense if you ignore two very important considerations. Shields is about to turn 34 years old. Therefore, the likelihood of him repeating 2015 numbers or declining is greater than him performing like he did at his best. Who knows he could be better than 2015 but to bet he will perform to the number you posted in his age 35 and 36 seasons is unlikely. The last thing we need is another $20+M/yr contract for a mediocre or worst contract. $58M/yr between Mauer, Santana (age 34-35 seasons), and Shields in 2017 and 2018 is a VERY bad idea. The second is that you can’t buy low on a 34 y/o SP at $21M/yr. If he rebounds to his absolute best at age 34 you get what you paid for in that season. What are the odds he does that in his age 35 and 36 seasons? What you describe as buying low, I would describe as paying market price for the level he played at during his best years and hoping he will defy the odds associated with aging SPs. None of this is even the most salient point as to why you don’t non-tender Milone. He would have value to another team. Therefore, you tender and offer and trade him if you don’t feel we need to keep him for depth.
  9. Major League Ready
    I have a hard time with some of the logic here. There were calls here to trade for Shields and take on 3/63M but we should none tender Milone at $7M. ERA+ / FIP Shields 93 / 4.45 Milone 106 / 4.30
  10. Major League Ready
    Anyone have a reliable scouting report in terms of his defensive ability at 1B? I have heard he is terrible from some sources and good from others. I also heard awhile back that he has played some outfield.
  11. Major League Ready
    Most of us didn't see Duffey as a serious prospect either. Count me amongst those who don't see it with Dean but I hope to be wrong again.
  12. Major League Ready
    Mike, do you have a link or do you need to be an insider to see this chat session?
  13. Major League Ready
    My bad, I completely missed the inclusion of Will Smith. This is a good trade for next year but likely a very bad trade long-term. It’s short sighted trading all of those assets. Trade one of Plouffe / Milone for Smith or an equivalent RP and the other for a corner OFer. Make Murphy the everyday catcher and let Pinto back him up. Trade Suzuki for a dozen balls. Use the savings to get Oday or Soria. The bullpen is waaaaay better, the OF problem addressed and you still have Kepler. IMO, that is a much better end result that will have much longer impact and potentially a huge impact if Kepler turns out as we hope. There also might be a chance to sign Austin Jackson to a 1 year deal with the savings if he feels he could rebuild his value. Now I retain even more assets and this could work out great if he has a good year. The Twins might get a compensation pick.
  14. Major League Ready
    I would guess LuCroy is 1 WAR than Murphy and you want to give up Plouffe, Suzuki, Milone, and Kepler? HORRIBLE idea. Trade Plouffe for a corner OF or stud reliever and it would have equal or more impact than trading for LuCroy and you still have Milone and 6 years of Max Kepler. Then, spend the money saved on LuCroy for a stud reliever or corner OF depending on which one you get by trading Plouffe.
  15. Major League Ready
    I would think Kepler still starts at AAA. This provides the Twins an opportunity to give Arcia one more shot! Don't get me wrong. He was been terrible last year but there is too much potential there to just flush him for nothing.
  16. Major League Ready
    I would be very happy getting Norris for Plouffe but I would not touch Shields. The last thing we need is an even more expensive SP in decline phase.
  17. Major League Ready
    You know better than to use that small of a sample size. Look at the last 5 years and you know it is no even remotely close to last year.
  18. Major League Ready
    Of course someone gives up pick for the vast majority of FAs who get a QO. I thought that went without saying. I should have said don't like to give up and I bet the majority of the picks given up are later than 17.
  19. Major League Ready
    I was trying to be politically correct when I said "we all" but there would be plenty who would complain. Take a look at the MLB top 100. There are several top 20 prospects who were drafted in the teens or later. Buxton is #1, #2 and #3 were picked 18th and 16th respectively. #4 was an international signing and #5 was taken 16th. #6 was 39th. #7 was picked 152nd an#8 was an international signing. That's why most teams don't give up these picks. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=prospects
  20. Major League Ready
    The majority of picks at 17 are not that great but if this pick happens to turn into Hamels or Halliday we would all crucify the FO.
  21. Major League Ready
    Yes, Hicks should start the season in center. Bring Buxton and Kepler up as soon as they are ready and let their play dictate the outfield of the future. I think Stringerbell is right that the most logical solution is to eventually trade Hicks. He has more value as a CF and therefore is a likely trade candidate. I also just don't see playing Kepler at 1B if his athleticism is as good as reported. Plus, it is probable Mauer is at 1B for 3 more years.
  22. Major League Ready
    I hope another team believes he will return to form next year and takes him off our hands this off-season. I don't care if we get a dozen balls in return. May needs to be in the rotation. If May gets the last spot in the rotation, Milone, Duffey, and Berrios contribute based on injury. Nobody seems to care about Milone but he let the least amount of runs cross the plate per 9 and that is a pretty important stat. One of Nolasco, Hughes, and Santana have to go. In that order for my liking.
  23. Major League Ready
    Count me onboard with this thinking. The ideal scenario is one of them gets traded once Kepler is up an establishes he can play at the ML level. That also gives us some time to see if Rosario can demonstrate some plate discipline. Scouts already have his MO and the pitchers are adjusting. If he continues with the current approach, nobody is going to throw him strikes. He has great hands but you can't do much when you are constantly 0-2 or 1-2 and fighting of breaking pitches off the plate of in the dirt. Hicks keeps getting better as a LH hitter and he is already darn good as a RH hitter. He has a high OBP and offers great flexibility in the lineup against LH pitching. However, Hicks has greater value as a CF and would bring a greater return. I think this one does not play out until the deadline of even the 2016 off-season unless Ryan gets an offer he can't refuse. I look forward to watching this play out.
  24. Major League Ready
    One possible scenario is that they want the option to bring him up next year as soon as the super 2 date passes. Hicks is more valuable as a CFer so the FO could very ell have determined the best way to maximize their assets would be to eventually trade Hicks. This plan would provide the opportunity to evaluate Kepler for a period of time prior to the deadline and then deal Hicks if they are satisfied with Kepler as his replacement. Hicks might even be traded in the off-season if the deal is right. What if they do have the chance to get the right catcher? Buxton, Rosario and Kepler could be our OF for the next several years. The point being, you don’t bring Kepler up to play 1st base or sit on the bench if you see the potential for one of these scenarios or some other similar scenario.
  25. Major League Ready
    Agreed. I would add a couple points. 1) Mauer's $23M/yr is not going away so it is pointless to justify the retention of Plouffe because he makes considerably less that Mauer. 2) The argument that Plouffe and Mauer can split time at 1B/DH make sense to me. His 740 OPS can be replaced for less at either position. 3) I don't think I would bet on Plouffe having a better year than Mauer offensively next year. Certainly not enough better that I would forgo the return Plouffe provides. 4) I would trade him for the best package I can get regardless of position but a Catcher would be great if that worked out. Invest the $saved in signing Gerardo Parra as a DH/back-up outfielder. The team just improved by 100 pts OPS and is also improved in the future by whatever assets are acquired by trading him.
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