Major League Ready

Perhaps we just have different desires for our team. 20 years of futility for a couple of good years and I would bet they are nor back in contention for another decade. That's not what I want for our team. The playoffs are very unpredictable. I want to watch a good team as many years as possible for 162 games. Playoff runs are a likely outcome of a perennial playoff team. You need to explain your position on payroll. KC's opening day payroll was $20M more than Cleveland this year and $30M more in 2016. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/ According to Forbes, their profits were lower than most other teams during this window and they had a small loss last year. https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall Please explain how they were cheap when they were aggressive enough with payroll to have a net loss.

How can one division title during a window be perfect execution?. Detroit won the division four years in a row prior to the one KC won.. The Twins won it 6 of 9 years prior to Detroit and Cleveland won it 6 of 7 years prior to Detroit.. One division championship is not perfect utilization and I sure hope the Twins can extend their window beyond the point when the current core become free agents.

Your response is confusing because the basis of the original post was holding onto established assets (Dozier) when the return was not adequate. The reference to KC is not specific to any move but their overall approach. We are not speculating. The trade for Shields did not win them any division titles and we know they were at their best after he was gone. We also know they are now in a terrible position that will likely result in a long period of mediocrity or worse. To get Shields they traded away an all-star (Myers) and a mid-rotation guy that could have helped them throughout this entire window (Odorizzi) They did not even make the playoffs the first season and were the wild card the next year. I seriously doubt anyone would trade away Buxton and Gonsalves for a one game play-off (wildcard) in a single year. They could have kept Odorizzi and traded Myers for assets that would have contributed to extending their window instead of shortening it. They would have been in far better shape had they traded Myers for SP that would have been ready a couple years after the trade. Trading Myers could have easily netted a very good SP and another contributing asset or two. A big part of their core (SS & CF) came from trading Grienke. The rest of their core were drafted or International signings and they had a couple FA starting pitchers that were a tier below Santana that happened to perform well. We could use Houston if you prefer. They traded away every veteran of value. One year their entire payroll was under $40M. Want to think longer term. Oakland has had the best winning percentage of any mid-market team and better than many large market teams. Beane built those teams trading established players before they got too expensive. The winning Tampa Bay teams were also constructed the same way. Johan and Nathan were products of such trades. Harvey and Kluber and we could go on and on.

There is some merit to your point. However, this kind of philosophy also tends to create cycles where mid market teams are awful for extended periods. KC is a good example. That kind of all-in management is very likely to produce longer down cycles and shorter windows of contention. This is actually probably a market inefficiency. Fans and organizations want results now. That often does not maximize asset value in a variety of situations. If that pick turns out to be another Berrios 5 years from now, good low cost SP could make it feasible to extend one of our core instead of letting them go which is the assumption being made managing to this specific window. Why not pursue strategies with the potential of extending our window of contention?

I am going to go out on a limb and say that Gordon ends up at SS or 2B with 3B a very unlikely scenario. Let's hope Sano shocks us by showing up for spring training in phenomenal shape. If he can't cut it in great shape, he becomes the 1B in 2019, Gordon goes to short and Polanco 2B. Take the 30M in payroll savings and invest in pitching.

So you move Sano to 1st and weaken our D at 1st and have a $23M DH with no power. Plus, you would either need to spend FA dollars that should be used on SP or RP or trade away the inexpensive future players who will improve the team over the next couple years. I agree on Polanco in that now is not the time to move him. Let's see if he can be closer to the version that tore it up for 6 weeks last year for an entire season. Then, move him to second when Dozier departs and insert Gordon. Would love to see Dozier extended but it makes more sense to spend the money elsewhere.

I absolutely agree that trading veterans should be a primary strategy during a rebuild or even to sustain a high level of play . I also agree that a lot fans are extremely focused on the immediate and don’t consider the implications on building an organization that sustains winning. Having said this … Our front office obviously did not feel that JDL was a prospect with an adequate probability of contributing to our future in a meaningful way. Therefore, while many of us agree with your concept we don’t agree that you sell for whatever the market will bear. I suspect the FO felt as I did at the time that 2 years of Dozier + a draft pick >>> JDL. Plus, there was also the possibility of moving him at a later date for a better return.

It would make sense that MLB would be the administrator of health and pension plans but are these programs funded by the teams? I could not find anything that confirms MLB players are contract employees. Are you assuming they are independent contractors because they have a contract or is there verification somewhere? It would be nice to know as we discuss the viability potential FA acquisitions and extensions. It might also come into play where minimum wage for minor league players are concerned. They too have contracts but are they employment contractors or are they independent contractors?

My guess is that the very top guys are going to command ridiculous money. That is going to absorb an unusual portion of the available payroll dollars. My hope is that it will present an opportunity for us to get what in most years would be a top 2-3 ranked FA that might be 6th or 7th in terms of contract next year. I would certainly not make plans based on this coming together but theoretically we are going to be well-positioned next year with big $ coming off the books and extraordinary supply. I don't think this prevents signing a Lynn/Cobb type this year. The dollars allocated to Mauer and Gibson (as an example) could be used to land an elite FA. It would sure help if a couple more of our BP prospects step up next year.

It would be nice if we could validate the numbers because its hard to take too of a stance on anything without all of the facts. I think you really got to the heart of the matter which is what would it really take to be a real contender and perhaps most importantly, is the team ready. It's quite similar to Kansas City's situation in 2013. I don't want to follow their blueprint to a small window of contention. They were not ready in 2013. 2014 worked out well but they were not that great but got really hot at the end of the season. Still, they were within a couple innings of getting absolutely nothing out of the considerable assets they gave up. A wildcard game is just a really poor result IMO. Had they kept Odorizzi and traded Myers for pitching that would contribute 2-3 years after that trade. It's pure conjecture but I believe they likely would have extended their window. They might have even been able to keep enough of this core together now had they had pre-arb guys to bring in the last couple years. I would not go all-in yet. They lose a lot of salary next year and it's feasible they could land one of the very top free agent SPs, especially if the core does get established and the bullpen gets shored up. We still have the core for 3-4 years. We would look better to FAs and it will likely be the best FA crop since free agency started. There is a limit to the amount of dollars available so we would be better positioned. We also can afford to extend a couple of the core players if we keep prospects to supplement the roster over the next 2-3 years.

Payroll does not equal salary.. Payroll = Salary + Payroll Taxes + Health Insurance + Retirement Contribution + any other benefits.. This is why I asked if the 52% was from an interview or two or if this was ever explained.. It's possible this was said in the context of salary only but I have worked with hundreds of large companies and payroll cost is always expressed in terms of salary + benefits. Benefits run around 30% for most companies. This group of employees is quite different because of the average salary.. However, the number is still probably 10% or more so we can't calculate the actual number with validate if they are including payroll taxes and benefits.

Is the 52% number something that has been repeated often or was it used once or twice and somehow became the standard used here. The reason I ask is because the net impact of 52% of revenue spent on player salaries is very different when revenue is up 20% vs down 20%. Regardless, they made a mistake every portraying this as their standard and they are making a mistake if they are actually using it to set payroll. I do think it's fair for fans to expect some of the "elevated profits" to be invested back into the team. However, I would add that the fans will generally think the timing of such investment is more immediate than a F/O looking to build a contender. Point being ... An incremental 10 or even 20M is not going to make this team a contender. Even adding Darvish, the starting rotation is not equal to the real contenders and the bullpen is a long way from that of a contender. The prospects are there but it will take time to develop. Even the core is not there yet. None of them have yet to put together a full season.

This premise of “MLB owners should operate as a non-profit so we could improve our team keeps coming up. This premise is a failure of economics 101. If MLB owners operated as a non-profit we would still be in the same position in terms of competing for free agents. We might even be worse off because some of the large market teams make about the same net percentage as the Twins but have higher revenue. Therefore, even more incremental revenue would be available to those teams. The net effect would be player salaries would be even higher. The only way this would benefit our team is if the Pohlads were willing to operate as a non-profit while the rest of league maintained business practices focused on maintaining profitability as they do now. There also would not be MLB at least not even remotely close to form we enjoy now. It takes a whole lot of capital to build and maintain an entire industry. Given business valuations are based on sustainable profitability the only way MLB could exist in this form would be if it were government sponsored non-profit.

Exactly, Acquiring an established SP with 3-4 years of control carries such a lofty price that you likely hurt the franchise long-term. KC just demonstrated how to have 20 years of futility and then a very short window of contention. What would be the short-term effect?. Archer would not put us on the level of the Indians so we are still likely playing for a wildcard. That does not have the same benefit it did just a few years ago. It's the equivalent of a game 163. Even if you get there the chances are 50/50 you don't get to a playoff series. If we have to trade one of our young core to get an Archer the gain on the Indians is reduced or eliminated. If not, it would take a package that likely included Lewis and a couple of our other top SP prospects. Perhaps Lewis and two of Gonsalves, Romero, and Thorpe. I also think he is a border line ace and we would still be at a disadvantage in a playoff series with the other top contenders. I just don't see a net gain trading for an established "ace" level SP. Let's hope Falvine can identify a break-out candidate for us.

I knew where you were coming from, Mike. The big picture is he was coming of TJ. I am just not sure I agree his results were bad. His ERA was about the same as Santana's. I never saw a single inning he pitched but would we rather have a good FIP or ERA? The FIP is cause for concern but how was his "stuff"? Was his velocity back to normal by the end of the season? Concluding he was bad because his FIP was high seems to be a rush to judgment. Falvey and Levine have a good track record where these assessments are concerned. I will feel pretty good about the off-season if they sign Cobb or conclude Lynn is likely to pitch like he did pre TJ and sign him. Add one or two BP pieces along with all of the BP prospects and next year should be the best team we have had in a long time.

Next year will be his 2nd year after TJ. His ERA first year back was better than every SP we had last year other than Santana. Granted, he is in the NL and his FIP was high. The question is will he get back to the level of performance he had pre TJ. That guy would be a very welcome addition. Our win total should go up with a more experienced core and Santana | Berrios | Lynn | Mejia & Gibson. Hopefully, Gonsalves should be ready. Slegers | Littell & Enns provide depth. Right now the list of guys that can help us is very short and the list of teams who wnat them is much longer. Sure we would like to have Darvish or Arrieta but that would require we outbid several teams with considerably more revenue that are markets which also provide greater endorsement potential. History would suggest that is not going to happen regardless of it's the Twins or a similar market. So, let's get Cobb or Lynn. They are the Santana's of this free agent class.

There have been quite a few guys who wanted X and got much less than X. Who knows with the shortage of SP but I don't think he gets that kind of money. 4 and 80 would not surprise me but 5 and 100 would.

That’s pretty meaningless given he missed all of 2016 after TJ surgery. He had 186 this year which is pretty darn good the first year after TJ. So, you are really saying don’t sign him because he only completed 175 innings in 2015 which I would guess was partly due to the injury that required TJ. My only concern is that is FIP did not look so good last year but this guy has been a very solid SP. I would be thrilled to have him if he pitches to his career numbers.

Non-profit organizations aside, EVERY business has a salary cap. Detroit operated for a handful of years with little regard for the bottom line. Every other pro sports franchise operates within a budget. The position the Twins are somehow different is an exceptionally simplistic view of the world. I have posted Forbes annual recaps here more than once it is was really quite clear the Twins spending policies were in line with the rest of MLB . There is an awful lot of completely unsubstantiated rhetoric around this position. I sure would like to see someone support this position with some form of documentation for once.

I think you might want to reconsider that logic. There is plenty to complain about but that pick is not among them. Literally every team in MLB passed on Judge, including the Yankees. They picked Eric Jagielo who does not look like he will ever play in the majors with the 26th pick and took judge 32nd. Kohl Stewart was a consensus top 10 even top 5 pick. To suggest it was incompetent to pick Stewart ovber Judge is to say that everyone involved in that draft for every MLB team was incompetent. The pick I hated was Tyler Jay. Benintendi and Happ were picked right behind him.

That strike out would have only been the 2nd out but its hard to argue that the Twins chances would have been much better had the proper call been made. I am ready for electronic balls and strikes. It's just too much to expect a human to make calls with precision on a 95mph pitch with movement and the impact of bad calls is significant. It also will eliminate the time guys spend standing outside the box muttering after a call they disagree with.

I think they can do better too but Ben Revere managed to find work at the ML level for a long time with the same profile.

To give some innings to the guys that were called up. The six innings were plenty in terms of continuing to reinforce the changes he has made in a game situation.. At 17-0, why not save his arm for the playoff run.

Are you really suggesting that it is not advantageous for professional athletes to be in the best physical condition possible? Baseball players can get away with. Golfers can get away with it. You dont see any overweight soccer players because they cant get away with. How many elite NBA players are overweight? I think we can say with a high degree of certainty Sano would be more agile at 3B and faster on the basis if he were 25lbs lighter. Would he come back form injury faster? Probably. I dont know if it would many any difference at all in his hitting. Probably not and that's why he can stay in the ML. While it's hard to quantify in exact terms or measurements. We can also say with a fair amount of certainty being in better physical condition would extend his career.

I am ecstatic Sano is on our team and I have always been in the camp he is a great athlete and that other sports have very big when with exceptional athleticism is just much more rare in baseball. The bias angle at the core of your post is dead on. It is all to common for conclusions to be a product of an already held point of view rather than looking at the facts objectively. There is a lot of that involved when it comes to Sano. The detractors to appreciate his athleticism and his accomplishments at such a young age. The athleticism is on display and the stats speak to his talent. On the other hand, the vast majority of ABs he refuses to apply any sort of two strike approach and he strikes out on a lot of bad pitches. He is a greater hitter but he is still along ways from being comparable to Cabrera. He ranks 60th in WAR and 37 in OPS. Good but he has significantly more potential. Altuve's OPS is 120 points higher and Bellinger is 108 points higher. Harper, Votto and Stanton 175-200 pts higher. There are 34 players with one home run or that have more home runs. His numbers are very good but not elite. The only thing all say about the weight is that there is absolutely no way anyone could argue he could lose 20 pounds quite easily. This can make him a target with the media because modest effort and reasonable dietary discipline and he is there.