Dman

I agree with you that he won't have as good a year next year or the year after or at least it is very unlikely. I am going against statistics which in the end will likely make me look silly but it seems like he has figured something out and I have a feeling that he won't regress all the way back to his career norms. I think he will end up somewhere in between where he is now and his career norms. I have no numbers on my side just a hunch. Not that he is a catcher but to use Cuddy as an example I don't think his career numbers ever indicated that he would win a batting title and yet he did. You have the statistical evidence on your side no question but with Suzuki massively over achieving for this long it seems hard to believe he would fall all the way back to where he was even in the next couple of years.

A shortage of catchers has nothing to do with a possible deadline trade. The team that wants him only gets him for two or three months tops and they might not be able to resign him as FA. The deal they are making is short term thus they might not want to give up much more than a C level prospect. He might be worth a B level it is just hard to say as he does have defensive short comings. His BABIP will fall there is no question but he is good at making contact and making pitchers work and he has been consistent for three months now. There is a decent chance he won't fall all the way back to his career norms. I am lazy about coming up with examples of players who have successful years after 30. I would guess there are plenty of examples for catchers who do well after 30. Certainly older age brings decline but it varies from player to player. Isn't AJ 37 and the Twins wanted him this year. Maybe he wouldn't split time with Pinto it is just a thought or opinion of something they could do. Catchers typically get days off and someone has to fill in. He might not end up the best hitter for BA on the team at the end of the year but he is by a pretty significant margin right now. What does that say about the rest of the hitters on this team?

I like that plan and my only quibble would be that I value Suzuki more than I did when the Twins first got him. Maybe he will tank shortly and I will change my mind again but right now he is a difference maker for this team and I don't see that we have anything better ready for the next couple of years. I like Pinto but is his defense any better than Suzuki's? Pinto has more power but his Batting average and OBP are quite a bit lower as well. I think SD Buhr is likely correct that he ends up more of a DH backup catcher than everyday catcher. I am not adamantly opposed to trading Suzuki but I would want something decent in return because I think he does make this team better for the next couple of years.

I think the question many of us have is what value does Suzuki have on the trade market? Teams have been reluctant to give up much more than relievers or C level prospects for players to make a run. The exception being for solid pitching. If a team offered a solid B or A level prospect for Suzuki would pretty much everyone on the board be happy with that. I think so. The problem is that right now Suzuki is the best hitter on this team and he has been consistent since the beginning of the season. Would most teams trade their best hitter for a C level prospect or two? I don't think so. Most teams would try and lock that guy up. You are correct odds are he will regress this year and in the following years but he also could stay around the 270 or 280 level as well. Cuddeyer was supposed to be washed up and he won a batting title after leaving the Twins. Morneau looks to be having a better year than his last two after leaving. Hunter was supposed to be on the decline when he left the Twins and he performed better for several years after he left and is still playing well. So age doesn't always predict productivity. The reason most of us myself included didn't want Suzuki at the beginning of the year is that his bat was likely not much better than Pinto's and Pinto needed to learn by doing. It appears that the Pitching staff appreciates what Suzuki brings to the table and Pinto is injured and has a few things to work on yet. They can still split time if Suzuki were resigned for a couple of years and if Pinto takes off Suzuki could be traded later. I think the Twins will wait for a desperation offer at the deadline for Suzuki. If they get what they want they will trade him, if not they will have him sign an extension and likely overpay for his services, but that is what you do for the best hitter on your team.

Age really shouldn't matter. Is he dominating? The answer appears to be yes. Should he move on to the next challenge? why not? He is going to pitch the same number of pitches whether he is in High A or AA. Why not have him learn at the next level instead of continuing to dominate\stagnate where he is. He is young but that is no reason to stagnate his development. If he makes it to the Majors at 21 he might be the best pitcher or best pitching option we have why not use him if that turns out to be the case instead of having him pitch at High A?

He definitively takes on the risk of getting hurt or having his performance drop off if he waits things out but he has been durable over his career so he might take on that risk. Who knows what he will get in FA it can be a fickle market. He might only get 5M or he might get 10M very hard to say. Personally I still like your analysis and agree that keeping Suzuki for two more years makes a lot of sense for the Twins. The question is do the Twins feel the same way.

I agree. I think you would have to overpay him to give up Free Agency. With catchers looking scarce for next year that only increases his value. If I were the motorcycle I would wait for the bidding war at the end of the season. Who knows what crazy money might come your way.

I was a little surprised that they let him go 6 innings this early. Isn't this just his second game? I think the Twins had most of there pitchers drop the velocity a notch to start the season or at least several pitchers seemed to be pitching below their usual velocity the first few games. IMO he is just building arm strength but who knows there could be something wrong as I thought he would start in A ball and he was the only dominant pitcher from last year not to get a chance there.

While it is not the end of the world leaving him at high A I think he is better moving to AA soon. Berrios is a fly ball pitcher and somewhat protected in the Florida state league. Better to get him adjusted to better competition and less friendly parks this year so that he can excel there next year. The velocity drop will be noticed regardless of which league he is in. It is a big jump from High A to AA for the pitchers so let's see what he can do there this year. Personally I think he will be good in AA this year as well.

If it is deemed an intentional foul it is. I believe you can be kicked off the court after two technical fouls. Also FYI Basketball has a cap.

Fortunately the Yankee's are their own worst enemy. Revenue advantage has not proven the cure all to WS victory but it does appear to allow teams to be good and not have to sit at the bottom of the standings.

The value of a cap is self evident. It creates a level playing field for all teams to operate. It is why all sports gravitate towards a cap. In baseball you have a handful of teams that have three or four times the revenue to spend on finding and retaining talent.

I agree they aren't scheming to keep the other teams down but in the end that is the likely consequence. We know for a fact that many lower revenue clubs do not have the financial resources that that the top clubs enjoy. The Royals, Rays, Marlins etc will have to turn over there talent after 6 years if not before because they cannot afford star players. If you want to keep the fans of low revenue teams interested then you have to create a way to give them an advantage otherwise the team would likely get contracted. Baseball seems to agree with trying to give the worst teams the greatest advantage to grab the highest talent to get back on track. When teams circumvent that with money then it doesn't work. Look at it like this. How would you like it if the Yankee's got to pick first in the draft every year? When they have more cash to spend than every other team that is effectively what happens. Revenue can be an unfair advantage. Cheating to me equals creating an unfair advantage (i.e. Money\revenue) or not following the rules.

It is not breaking the rule as written but there is a thing humans are supposed to have or at least try and develop and those things are called morals. How do we know the Cubs\Yankees are cheating? Well the intention of the rule was to help teams with low revenues who typically aren't that good get better by having a shot to sign some of the top talent to get better. Baseball agrees that this is good for the game so that it is easier for teams that have been bad for a long time to get better quickly and keep their fans interested etc. So along comes a team that in the past typically wins their division every year and they are willing to spend whatever it takes to add more talent to their system effectively negating the advantage that lower revenue ,poor performing teams were supposed to get. Is being last in line and then budding to the front of the line something you want to encourage? I don't think so as then why have a line at all. Is it something every team can do? If it were then there would be no need for the rule in the first place. Here's a none baseball example. There is no law that punishes you if you sleep with another woman and yet I bet your wife would consider that cheating. Cheating is as much about intention as it is about the written rule. The Cubs cheated and the Yankee's will be cheaters this year. They are what they are there is no way to sugar coat it. They know they are cheating and the world knows they are cheating and they don't really care, but they are cheaters.

Sure but the top 5 or 6 revenue teams can switch years and essentially accomplish the same thing. Three of the top revenue teams each year could outbid most of the other teams if they so desired. So the penalty is really no penalty at all. The Yankee's will not be able to bid next year but if they do get a third of the best available talent this year that seems like a pretty large advantage to me.

It is cheating because the reason they put that rule out there was to give the teams that needed players the most (i.e the worst teams) a chance to get better. Thus they created a structure to do that which is now being circumvented. To say that there is level playing field is disingenuous as that is the exact reason the rule was created. Big money teams could role over teams with less revenue. So essentially as it stands now nothing has changed. The rule is so terribly flawed that it can't even enforce its intended purpose. I agree that a draft stinks for the players but when teams ignore the rules or at the very least the spirit of the rules, what else can you do but a draft?

I think both those guys should be moved up. They have been extremely consistent week to week so far this year. There is nothing left for them to prove at their current levels. I am guessing the Twins have a plan but hurry up already.

I figured one of the older players would go first but I was kind of hoping Berrios would get moved. Being as young as he is and dominating the way he is I think the Twins should have moved him to AA. Even if he struggles there a little this year it puts him ahead for next year. Hopefully there will be more promotions in the not too distant future. Congrats to Jason though as he has pitched well.

Most of the stuff I read was wishy washy about him truly being available. It seems you might be correct that the FO was only interested in an "unreal" desperation offer that never came. At the time I didn't want them to trade him. We needed right handed power and had found someone for decent money to handle that. It seemed foolish to me to give that away so soon. Then came 2013 and now I think differently. Hindsight is 20/20. Hopefully they still get something decent for him this year.

I looked for info on Willingham 2012 as well. Most articles had interest as high but no mention of what was really being offered. The following link does highlight the notion that they weren't going to get a high level prospect for him though. http://paullebowitz.wordpress.com/tag/will-the-twins-trade-josh-willingham/ Hard to say what his exact value was then but if he has a good year this year his value should technically be higher because the contract is only through this year. If the Twins still get something for him this year all is not lost. If he under performs then his value goes down but that is the risk of keeping older players.

gunnarthor, Thanks for the positive spin! Tough losses in all three games this series but I agree that we are getting closer to having better pitching. Most all the top prospects should be up by next year and several this year so this team should be on its way back up.

The logical side of me agree's with Tobi and the group that wants to invest MLB experience in Meyer and May. The sentimental side of me wants to give the long-shot Pino a chance. I am a sucker for the underdog. There is a reason they are called underdogs though, because their chances at sustained future success are slim. Being the logical person I am I should ignore the sentimental side but it is hard for me not to cheer for Pino. I doubt he will have sustained success but at 30 I would like to see him pitch and see what he can do. He never gave up on himself. I think that is worth a chance even if it means M&M have to wait just a little longer.

Nice article! I was not overly excited about the Hughes signing and actually felt the Twins had paid too much for him. Although I expected slight improvement I did not see him doing this well EVER for the Twins. I thought Nolasco was going to be better than Hughes. I thought Nolasco was going to be better than a #5 starter. My expert analysis stinks. Hughes has been fantastic and so, so fun to watch this year. He brings tears to my eyes because he is actually consistent start to start. It feels like forever since the Twins had someone who could pitch. I am so happy Hughes has made me look like a fool.

Very happy for Pino. I hope he pitches great for a good long time. He earned his shot now he needs to make it work in the big leagues. TM will get his shot before too long.

Love these articles. Keep them coming. I've been keeping an eye on him in the box scores and he always seems to have a hit or two. I hope he makes it.