BabyJesusBuxton

I'm not sure I would just give away productive bullpen arms because they are arbitration eligible. Games could get really ugly if we start giving away the one part of the team that has been consistent this year. Not to mention the Twins are not strapped for cash in the next couple years as things currently stand. IMO the best bet to get a good return would be to sweeten a trade with one of our prospects in A/A+ ball. It is a little outside the box as these trades aren't as common but if the goal of the trades is to get SP or SS help that resembles a for sure MLB talent we are going to have to include a prospect in the 10-20 range in our system. This likely would be the equivalent of a top 10 prospect for most teams. For the sake of argument, would Morneau and say Melotakis be enough to get a top 100 prospect at either SP or SS? How about Morneau and Kepler? I think Perkins and one of these types of prospects would be able to guarantee a top 50 SP prospect if a team is in need of a closer (with a perfect storm this could happen with Perkins alone).

I have been adamant that signing a FA pitcher last offseason to a long term deal was not the right time. However, this upcoming offseason it looks like the FA class is going to be a lot deeper and the Twins will also know more of what they have in their younger pitchers. Diamond and Worley aren't as good as advertised last offseason, Hendricks hasn't done anything to improve his stock, etc. I agree with your point that you can't wait until the team is good and hope a good pitcher will be available. If you are able to sign an above average (#2 or 3) pitcher to a good long term (3-4 years) deal, you should do it. I just thought last offseason wasn't the right time based on what was available.

Not too many SP above 35 are going to get more than 2 years in a deal but I get your point.

Personally, one of my favorite pitching stats to break down a start is Bill James' game score. Most stats have some sort of flaw in them but I find the game score is effective in showing the overall "quality" of a SP's performance with a numerical value. Therefore, possibly an average game score would be a good stat to compare pitchers over a season.

Bronson Arroyo (37) Scott Baker (32) Erik Bedard (35) A.J. Burnett (37) Chris Capuano (35) - $8MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout Chris Carpenter (39) Bruce Chen (37) Bartolo Colon (41) Aaron Cook (35) Jorge De La Rosa (33) Scott Feldman (30) Gavin Floyd (31) Jeff Francis (33) Freddy Garcia (37) Jon Garland (34) Matt Garza (30) Roy Halladay (37) - $20MM vesting option Jason Hammel (31) Aaron Harang (36) - $7MM+ mutual option with a $2MM buyout Dan Haren (33) Roberto Hernandez (33) Tim Hudson (38) Phil Hughes (28) Ubaldo Jimenez (30) - may void $8MM option for 2014 Josh Johnson (30) Jeff Karstens (31) Scott Kazmir (30) Hiroki Kuroda (39) Jon Lester (30) - $13MM club option with a $250K buyout Colby Lewis (34) Ted Lilly (38) Tim Lincecum (30) Paul Maholm (32) Shaun Marcum (32) Jason Marquis (35) Ricky Nolasco (31) Roy Oswalt (35) Mike Pelfrey (30) Andy Pettitte (42) Wandy Rodriguez (35) - $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout Jonathan Sanchez (31) Ervin Santana (31) Johan Santana (34) - $25MM club option with a $5.5MM buyout Joe Saunders (33) - mutual option James Shields (32) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout Jason Vargas (31) Ryan Vogelsong (36) - $6.5MM club option with a $300K buyout Edinson Volquez (30) Tsuyoshi Wada (33) - $5MM club option Jake Westbrook (36) -- $9.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout. Chien-Ming Wang (34) Suk-min Yoon (27) Chris Young (35) Barry Zito (36) - $18MM vesting option with a $7MM buyout

Once the Span AND Revere trades were made last offseason everyone should have seen the current team performance and payroll coming. If you are truly planning on putting a competitive team on the field with hopes of a Wildcard push you don't trade two above average CFs with only unproven rookies and 4th OFs in the wings. Personally, I was elated when I heard about these trades as it brought in high upside SP into the farm system that was desperately needed. People posting about teams rebuilding through FA should go and look again at what FAs are being added. Teams that are having bounce back years (ie Boston) with the addition of 4-5 big FA had the majority of their rotations in place. The idea that a team with as big of hole at SP as the Twins have could spend their way into contention is not very plausible. Could it happen? Sure, but not likely while trying to fill other holes as well. I am not happy with the current team performance but I can see the plan TR has in place and I am one of those people who refuses to look at his past as an indication of how he will spend in the future with an expanded payroll until he proves otherwise. Looking at what he did this past offseason and making claims about his future moves is a little shortsighted IMO as spending more likely wouldn't have been enough to turn this team into a winner. Maybe I'll be wrong and the TR bashers can lineup to tell me "We told you so!" when he continues to nickel and dime his way through FA spending. My hope is that upgrades can be made this offseason at SS and hopefully SP with deals that can help the next good ball club. With those upgrades I hope that the team can break through the 0.500 mark next year. Of course depending on what happens at the trade deadline this year other immediate needs may have to be added to my wish list.

While I tend to agree that it is too early to say Thielbar has passed up Duensing I still think he is going to be an effective member of the bullpen for the next few years for much less money than Duensing will get. Based on that Thieldbar could have passed him up purely based on the value he provides at a pre-arbitration discount. Thielbar is attacking hitters and keeping the ball down for the most part. The biggest question is still how effective he is going to be when he faces hitters who have seen all his pitches before. Until I see a significant rise in his WHIP and better contact made by batters I will continue to prefer seeing him out there over Duensing in the late innings of close games.

I don't know the answer to this question but if it would be a first, this is the year for it to happen with the current payroll.

I enjoy the buzz come draft time when the Twins have a top pick as much as the next guy but in all seriousness anyone who thinks the team would not give 100% every game to win is crazy. These guys are professional athletes playing for their next paycheck. If someone starts to slack off he is going to lose playing time to another player busting his @$$. The simple fact is that the Twins don't have the starting pitching to compete currently partially due to lack of FA spending and partially due to lack of development from the young pitchers. There is another thread to argue about TR's role in the current situation. By no means does that mean the team is tanking the season. I do believe that TR envisioned this happening this year when putting the team together but I also believe that if he thought he could have put together a team that would challenge the Tigers for the central this year he would have spent more in FA. I also think he has a vision for how to return the team to a winning ball club. As a STH I am hoping there are a couple trades made at the deadline to be able to see some new prospects up in Minnesota and watch them develop. I try to find the silver lining watching the team so the scoreboard isn't quite as hard to look at and getting to see Hicks and Arcia has been fun (mostly). It is much easier to do so this year when I expected the Twins to struggle as compared to 2011 when they were supposed to be good! I definitely won't be happy if there isn't progress in the W/L column next year!!

I think that once the Twins have the core of their upcoming talent in the majors they can possibly pool together some of our prospects in the 10-20 range to get a solid player from a struggling club looking to unload a contract. There is no guarantee that this happens but with the overall depth of our system currently, there are some solid trade pieces available for when the team is ready to contend again. The ultimate question if this happens will be whether the Twins can extend the contracts. FA is always a crap shoot because elite players rarely make it to FA as teams try to lock these franchise players up. That leaves the very good, could be an allstar during a good year players left as the best players on the market most of the time.

Gardy will manage the Twins long as possible. If he is not retained I am pretty sure he would have a job with a different club within a few weeks if he still wants to manage. If he is ready to head off into the sunset then the TK route is very likely. I would really like to see Molitor get a chance if he wants to manage. I thought TR may have hinted at this possibility when they were changing up the coaching staff and he explained that this wasn't the right time for Molitor to join the Twins ML staff. What is the % that the Twins stay within the organization if Gardy is gone? 90%?

I am not against signing an older pitcher. I think that signing a good pitcher around 30 to 34 to a 3 year deal for 20 million a year could be really good when the timing is right. It's the 5+ year deals for anyone showing injury history I have trouble arguing for. This forum would blow up with comments about all the money wasted if the pitcher ends up needing Tommy John or shoulder surgery and is out for a year while collecting a 15-20 million dollar check. Sure this might not happen and the contract works out but there is a good probability that it could. This is where the risk vs reward debate comes into play.

Some posts have questioned what FA pitchers will be available in a couple years because of the extra TV money coming in. I don't really see that as a reason to sign a pitcher with injury history to a long term deal now. But isn't the extra money and chances that teams will lock up their own players the reason for making smart trades now? Such as the Revere and Span deals to bring in pitching prospects with a high upside who will hopefully be ready in a couple years?

Agree 100%. You can judge TR based on his past stint with a small market team if you want to. I think it would be prudent to wait until the next core of players is ready and see how he spends in FA with an expanded payroll and the time is right. Again I think a lot of people forget that high dollar free agents don't want to play the prime of their career on a bad team. Going into this season despite what TR said in statements to the press, everyone knew this was a rebuilding project. It is pretty difficult without some other forces at play (family, friends on team, etc.) to get a top pitcher to sign a 3-5 year deal with a team expected to struggle when they can sign a similar contract with a contender.

When grading TR and his lack of adding SP everyone should remember a couple things. 1. Not too many FA pitchers were interested in pitching for the Twins in 2013. 2. TR was not going to commit to a long term contract for a pitcher which rules out the interesting options who would bring significant value IMO. My personal take on this approach is mixed. I would have liked to see something more than Correia added to the rotation although he has been a pleasant surprise. I also thought the Vanimal would have been close to league average. At the same time I thought that I'd rather be sitting where we were at the start of the season than have an overpaid, underperforming pitcher on our roster that is immovable because of the contract. I'd say due to the lack of SP options interested in the Twins, the performance of the other FA pitchers to date, and the bullpen's quality I would give TR an A- on the pitching staff. Next year I would expect more pitchers will show interest in talking with the Twins as they should start to trend upward next year (Twins fan's optimism at play here). If TR repeats the same type of moves next offseason I will have an issue and begin questioning his plan. For now I think he has a vision of what the club can look like in 2014 and will give him another offseason before I abandon ship.

If Morneau isn't traded during the season I don't think that offering either a qualifying offer or else a team friendly 2 year deal (14-20 total value) would be a bad decision by the front office. 1. His role as a team leader/veteran for the next wave of prospects and his status as a fan favorite have plenty of organizational value. 2. Sure you might be able to match his offensive production and save a few million each year of his next contract but in seasons where the Twins payroll could be towards the bottom 1/3 in the league, I don't think money is really the main concern. 3. His defense is still among the best in the league at first base IMO without looking at looking into his advanced stats recently. Does anyone know if he loses the 10-5 rights if he is traded at the deadline and resigns with the Twins this offseason?

My bad on the name. I didn't go back to check the box score. And I agree that there was no guarantee that Doumit would have slid but Plouffe still needs to be there. It is baseball fundamentals and I am sure it was talked about in the dugout/club house afterwards.

Nishioka could have prevented that injury. Swisher made a good hard slide into second to break up a double play. If Florimon, Dozier, Plouffe or anyone else was playing SS they move to avoid the contact as best they can. Nishioka wasn't accustomed to that sort of slide coming from Japan and just stood in there and took the contact.

I was at this game and Doumit is not to blame for not sliding in the case where he sprained his ankle. Justin Morneau did not get in position to signal him to slide. After Doumit dove back into home to score he got up and gave Morneau a puzzled look on why he didn't tell him to get dirty.

This argument about not bringing up his stats right after a couple big games doesn't make much sense. That same argument can be made right after a 3 game slump where he goes 1 for 13 with 4 k's. The fact is baseball is a game of hot and cold streaks. Very few players will have a consistent box score every game of the year. IMO a period of 100 AB would be considered a fair time table to base how a batter has done "recently". Depending on playing time it is roughly 1/5 to 1/6 of a season and pretty close to the 28 days worth of games Brock has been using.

jokin pointed out the current numbers are slightly higher than 6 but my main point is that there aren't many offensive shortstops out there and very few ever make free agency. I think it is smarter to stick with a very good defensive player who will consistently save runs with his glove. People can argue that an upgrade needs to be made at SS which I agree with. Obviously Florimon is simply a stop gap but with the pitching staff the Twins have it is better to have the glove than the bat IMO. I also just want to add that I agree Florimon needs to bat better. I think if he could bat in the .230-.240 zone and limit his strikeouts under 20 percent he could be of value for a couple years.

At least some of them. Also, I am glad Gardy has stopped using Burton as THE 8th inning pitcher recently. Burton's has not been the same pitcher he was in 2012 and I think if Gardy were to play matchups more in the 8th with a combination of Duensing, Burton, and possibly Fien then there would be more opportunities in the 6th/7th for Thielbar.

I've often heard that baseball scouts/GMs don't like to cement a players value until after 1000 AB. Parmelee is currently at 470 ML AB. If he can get regular at bats, then by the trade deadline next season I think we should have a clearer picture of what we can expect out of him moving forward. One thing I think the majority (perhaps 65-70% based on my observation) of the people posting here agree on is that sending him back to AAA (which was the original question in this post) will not answer any questions about him. He needs to prove his value at the ML level with ML ABs. If the Twins are not able to trade anyone out of Hammer, Doumit, or Morneau at the deadline, I think that is the point where Doumit/Willingham/Morneau should start losing at bats to Parmelee regardless of performance. At this point in the season the Wild Card picture should be a little clearer and I am expecting the Twins to be just outside of the WC race so player development should be priority at that point. One final thought is that Gardy's job with the Twins shouldn't affect the long-term development of the team although it will likely prevent my playing time scenario laid out above from actually happening.

One final comment on Thielbar - Out of his walks only 1 has come to a LH batter in 22 at bats as apposed to 6 in 27 at bats against RH batters. I found this interesting as a couple possible things could be happening pointing towards my thoughts of his floor being a LOOGY: A. He is pitching more carefully to RH (possibly around them to get to a LH) B. RH batters are able to foul off his pitches easier and work a walk.

Caleb's long-term role in the bullpen is going to be as a LOOGY although he has shown ability to get out right handers as well so this could likely be his floor. He has given up 7 BB in 15.2 innings thus far (1 intentional) which isn't great but it isn't terrible either. Through the minors he has shown excellent control so I expect the walk rate may improve as he gets more innings although his WHIP (0.77 currently) is going to increase as more hits are likely to fall in as well.