Boone

I went to see the final game of the Rock Cats’s series in Portland on Monday. Because I was only watching one game, didn’t see BP or fielding drills, and am not a professional scout I am not making any conclusions. My purpose was more to provide details that cannot be found in a boxscore as well as a very modest scouting report. I focused on Sano, Rosario, and Pinto. Unfortunately Danny Santana wasn’t in the lineup, as I was hoping to get a look at him playing shortstop. Hitting Sano 1st AB: Struckout swinging I thought he checked his swing on the 3rd strike. He had some words for the ump, and the 3rd base coach (manager?) was ejected arguing the call [*]2nd AB: Flyout Swung at first pitch, pretty weak fly ball [*]3rd AB: Flyout Sano hit a routine fly ball to right center. I would have liked to have seen him go the other way (runner on 2nd, no outs), but it was a good pitch to hit. If he had hit it hard it probably would have gone a long way and I wouldn’t be complaining [*]4th AB: Flyout Skied a flyball to left [*]Overall impression Was generally pretty aggressive early in at bats against fastballs, but couldn’t seem to square one up. It was good to see that he has a pretty controlled swing, as opposed to an all out, swing from the heels (like Fielder or Harper). Rosario: First AB: Struck out swinging He was fooled by a breaking pitch for strike 3, and swung off of his front foot He thought strike 2 was low [*]2nd AB: Result: BB Took a few close pitches for balls, including ball 4, which was the breaking pitch that fooled him in his first AB [*]3rd AB: Struck out swinging Took a few close pitches early in the AB to get the count in his favor and he fouled off a good pitch with 2 strikes, but he was fooled by the breaking ball again. He struck out swinging on a pitch in the dirt [*]4th AB: E6 Swung at first pitch and hit the ball sharply just to the shortstop’s left. The ball skipped once off the dirt and glanced off the shortstop’s glove into centerfield. Ruled an error. It would have been a really nice play. Might have been ruled a hit if the Rockcat’s had been at home [*]Overall impression: Was generally quite patient early in at bats and often worked the count into his favor. The one ball he put in play was hit quite sharply. Seemed to have trouble picking up breaking balls. Pinto 2nd AB: just missed a fastball. He was clearly frustrated with himself on way back to dugout 3rd AB: doubled on a hard hit line drive to left center. I was surprised at how well he ran Fielding Sano No groundballs were hit near him. Caught two popups that he barely had to move for. He did use both hands, which I liked to see. Overall impression: Wasn’t a whole lot to see here as he was never even remotely tested. I won’t pretend to know whether or not he is going to outgrow 3rd base, but he hasn’t yet. Rosario Caught a pop up in the first, barely had to move. Caught the ball with one hand, with his glove at his shoulder rather than over his head. Made an easy play on a routine bouncing ball in the fourth. Was very casual making the play Made a nice play on a hard hit ground ball in the 7th. Ranged a few steps to his right and made a sort of sliding stop (fielded cleanly). He then popped up quickly and made a relatively routine throw to first. Made a great catch on a weak line drive in the 7th that seemed destined to drop into shallow right. His route wasn’t perfect, but he recovered well and made a great leaping catch while running backwards and to his left. Displayed really good athleticism. With runners on 1st and 2nd and the Rockcats up 2 in the bottom of the 9th, there was a hard hit ground ball up the middle. The runner on second scored and the other went first to third. I would have liked to see Rosario lay out to try and stop the ball from reaching the outfield. He probably couldn’t have gotten there but I would have liked it anyways Overall impression: has a sort of lazy flair to his game that he displayed on the pop up in the first and grounder in the 4th. I also found it interesting that Rosario didn’t creep before the pitch; he went straight from a relaxed position to a ready position. Other notes Sano is going to be a fan favorite. He threw balls into the stands whenever he got the chance, once from the pitcher’s mound. The kids picked up on this pretty quickly and went crazy calling “hey 24” every time he got the ball. That was good to see. Daniel Ortiz hit a homerun right down the rightfield line (330 feet at the foul pole). It was more of a line drive than a fly ball but it still cleared the 15 foot high wall.

Yes it's a small sample size but I don't think sample size matters as much when looking at plate discipline, because a player's approach is much more consistent from one AB to another than the result of a ball in play. Anyways, if it's too small to be concerned about his plate discipline, than it's too small to take note of his high average (his BABIP is .482). As for the comparisons to Mauer and Pujols, they are probably valid. But it's worth remembering that those are based off of his play in Cedar Rapids, not Fort Myers. It's possible that his approach has taken a bit of a step back against better pitching. I expect Buxton's K's and BB's will return to what he posted in A ball within a month or two. But until he makes an improvement in that area, I think it's too early to start talking about a promotion to AA.

I think it's worth noting that Buxton's plate discipline has regressed significantly at Fort Myers: A: 44BB:56K in 270 AB 13.7%BB 17.4%K .79BB/K A+: 1BB:7K in 35 AB 2.8%BB 19.4%K .14BB/K First of all, Buxton displayed tremendous plate discipline for a 19 year in his first year of full season ball. He has, however, regressed significantly in A+. Buxton will surely improve these numbers, but it goes to show that he does have things to work on in Fort Myers.

I agree that his contract probably hurt Willingham's value last trade deadline. I remember reading last year that Willingham having multiple years remaining on his contract made it difficult for teams to assign value to him at the trade deadline. All in all, Willingham having surgery might actually be beneficial. 1. It reduces the outfield log jam. Willingham would have had to play every day to retain/increase value for the deadline, meaning that someone out of Hicks, Arcia, and Parmelee would have had to ride the bench (probably Parm). This situation would be further complicated by the presence of Clete Thomas. 2. I think this makes the Twins more likely to trade our other pieces (Morneau, Doumit, Correia, and hopefully Perkins). Being forced to hang on to Willingham, one of our veteran pieces, reduces the need to keep our other veteran pieces, which makes trading them more likely. 3.Even though his value was probably at an all time low this trade deadline, I think there's a good chance the Twins would have traded him. They certainly won't trade him now, and if he rebounds well he can probably increase by either this off season or next trade deadline.

Where's Trevor May? His June stats are as follows 5 GS, 2-3, 3.23 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 30.2 IP, 25 H, 8 BB, 34 K Out of this group he is 1st in K/9, 1st in K/BB, 2nd in WHIP, 3rd in ERA, 3rd in BB/9 and 4th in IP/GS. Good to see him finally having success in AA.

Using a single month for a split is certainly unbiased, but the fact that it has an arbitrary start and end point isn't necessarily a good thing. Furthermore, although selective endpoints might be biased, they also have some advantages: 1. They can provide a larger sample size, which is generally a good thing. 2. They are often better for viewing a trend or a shift for a player. Remember that Parmelee is just 25 and he has played roughly the equivalent of just one season. It is very possible that something clicked for Parmelee in mid-May, triggering his hot streak. If this is the case (and this article suggests it is: Minnesota Twins: Chris Parmelee more aggressive, more successful - TwinCities.com), my selected starting point might provide a better indication of the kind of numbers Parmelee is capable of posting going forward.

Since May 23, Parmelee is hitting .281/.379/.528 for a .907 OPS. Especially when you consider that he's just 25, that certainly merits continued playing time, every day. Parmelee isn't the long-term answer at 1B. That falls to someone out of Sano, Harrison, and Vargas. But he can certainly be a stop-gap player for a few more years, or flipped at the trade deadline for decent value.

Zach Jones: 13 Ks in 7.1 innings, pretty much sums it up. Quick question: Neither Tonkin nor Jones has pitched since 6/23. Are they hurt or have they just not been needed?

Don't know if he will, but bottom line is he should. There are 12 full time closers in the AL (12 have more than 16 saves, no one else has more than 5. Here is where he ranks amongst AL closers in a variety of categories: ERA:6 WHIP:2 K/9:2 K/BB:1 That seems like an All Star to me.

Scott Diamond has struggled mightily this season, with an ERA of 5.40 after last year’s stellar 3.54 ERA. Some of this regression was expected; not only did Diamond greatly exceed expectation but he also posted a 3.94 FIP in 2012. The real question is the cause of Diamond’s struggles this season: if he has truly taken a step back, expect his struggles to continue, and he may lose his spot in the rotation. However, if Diamond’s poor performance has been more a result of bad luck, there is a good chance he could rebound in the second half. The Bad: Diamond is walking more batters, striking out fewer, generating fewer groundballs, and giving up more fly balls than a year ago. This displays that Diamond truly has struggled this season. 2012:12.6%K 4.3%BB 2.90K/BB 53.4%GB 25.6%FB 2.09GB/FB 2013:11.0K 4.9%BB 2.25K/BB 47.8%GB 34.2%FB 1.40GB/FB What has caused this: First there has been a difference in pitch selection. Diamond is throwing his fastball more and his curveball less than a year ago, which probably not a good sign for a soft-tosser. To make matters worse, he has lost some velocity on his fastball from a year ago. This could be a long-term problem for Diamond. 2012: 60% fastballs (89.4 mph) 29% curveballs 2013: 65% fastballs (88.2 mph) 23% curveballs The Good: Diamond is allowing fewer line drives this year, which typically leads to a lower BABIP, because players seem to hit around.700 on line drives (I’ve read varying statistics from several sources, but this seems to be the general consensus). In fact, only 12 pitchers in all of baseball are giving up fewer line drives this season. 2012: 21.0% LD 2013: 18.0% LD Despite giving up fewer line drives than last year, Diamond’s BABIP has gone through the roof. In fact, Diamond has allowed the 6th highest BABIP in MLB. 2012: .292 2013: .337 Another cause of Diamond’s struggles has been his inability to strand runners on base. Not only has his left on base percentage dropped significantly from last season, but his LOB% this season is the 9th lowest in all of baseball. 2012: 73.3% LOB 2013: 65.7% LOB What to expect going forward: Diamond has clearly regressed this year. The bottom line is that the things he can control—strikeouts, walks, groundballs, flyballs—he isn’t doing as well as he did last year (with the exception of line drives). It is very possible that this is a result of the changes in Diamond’s repertoire, both pitch selection and pure stuff. This is a legitimate long term worry that could plague him going forward. However, the severity of Diamond’s regression should not as extreme as it has been. This is largely the result of bad luck. As the season progresses, these trends should regress towards the league average and Diamond’s numbers should improve. However, it is unlikely that Diamond will return to his 2012 numbers unless he makes some changes to his pitch selection and adds some velocity to his fastball.

Any chance the Twins keep Hicks in AAA "rehabbing?" This is the perfect time to let him develop for a few weeks in AAA. Sending Arcia back down has seemed to help him out, so I'm hoping the Twins do the same thing with Hicks.

All of the rates were per AB not PA like on Fangraphs. Also, my calculations were for what his numbers would be like going forward. So what I was saying was that if Mauer struck out at a 12% rate for the rest of the season with a .365 BABIP during that time period, he would hit .333 for the rest of the season.

Nothing. The Twins aren't going to be competitive for another 3 or 4 years, at which point Gallardo would be 30 or 31 and past his prime. Giving up long-term pieces that should play a key role in our bright future for a player who will be past his prime once we become competitive is silly.

First of all, I think you're underestimating the potential drop in strikeouts. Here are his K rates: Career :12.2% 4/2013: 17.3% 5/2013: 25.6% 6/2013: 12.2% 2013 : 19% There is a very real chance that his K% will drop 5-7%. As for weighing K% and BABIP, the formula is as follows: BABIP = (H/AB - HR/AB)/(1 - K/AB - HR/AB - SF/AB), where the 1 is a result of AB/AB and H/AB is the batting average that results from the other variables. I used Mauer's 2013 HR/AB (2.89%) and 2013 SF/AB (0%). In order to calculate the expected batting average for the rest of the season I used a .365 BABIP. Here are the results: If Mauer continues to strike out at a rate of 19% rate (21.7% of his ABs) and his BABIP falls to .365, then his batting average will fall to .304 If Mauer strikes out at his career rate of 12.2% (12.7% of ABs) going forward and his BABIP falls to .365, his batting average will actually rise to .333. In other words, a drop in K rate to his career rate will outweigh a drop in BABIP of 35% points if he maintains his current HR and SF rates.

Very excited about Kepler. He had the 2nd highest BB/K ratio in the Appy League last year and the 4th highest ISO. Still young and inexperienced which means he has the potential to improve rapidly. A real shame he had to miss the first half of the year.

Although Parmelee's triple slash line is very similar to last year, if you look closer he has taken a step forward in his development: he is walking more, striking out less, hitting more line drives, and hitting fewer infield fly balls: 2012: 6.2%BB 24.8%K .25BB/K 18.4%LD 6.5% infield fly ball 2013: 9.0%BB 22.6%K .4BB/K 22.5%LD 3.6% infield fly ball In my opinion, this represents a legitimate step forward in his development. Also, given Parmelee's above average LD rate, I would expect his .279 BABIP to increase, which should improve his triple-slash line.

I'm not doubting your intel, but lets hope that the Twins have learned that prospects need some time in AAA before heading to the majors. An interesting note on Rosario: over his last 23 games (11 in A+ and 12 in AA), he has drawn 12 walks. In his previous 41 games, he drew just 10. For a player who has always been a bit of a free-swinger, this is a good sign.

The important thing here is that Arcia was sent back to Rochester in May before returning in June. As you might expect, he has been much better in his second stint than the first: 1st stint (April and May): .767 OPS 7.5% BB 28% K .27 BB/K 2nd stint (June) : .910 OPS 8.5% BB 21% K .4 BB/K His BB and K numbers are pretty similar to what he posted last season in Ft. Myers and New Britain (roughly 9.5% BB, 20%K). I wouldn't expect Arcia to post a .910 OPS the rest of the year, but it seems like something might have clicked during his demotion to Rochester. Hopefully the Twins keep Hicks in AAA "rehabbing" for a few weeks and something will click for him too.

Pinto's bat is so good that the Twins need to find a place on their roster for him. Although he isn't the Twins' best hitting prospect, he is one of the most complete: Sano strikes out a ton, Rosario doesn't draw many walks, etc. In my opinion, there are very few hitters in the system who are as likely to post several years of .800 OPS as Pinto. Hopefully he gets promoted to AAA soon and gets a cup of coffee in September. I wouldn't mind seeing him start next season in AAA, but he should be a regular by next year's trade deadline.

After a breakout year in Ft. Myers in 2012, Pinto is off to an excellent season in New Britain. When analyzing Pinto’s performance, I chose to look first at his numbers in two different peripheral categories: K/BB ratio (a good indicator of plate discipline that also contributes to a high batting average and OBP) and ISO (best indicator of power). Looking at these numbers also eliminates the significant irregularities of BABIP that can skew single-season statistics. It is always important to consider a prospect’s age relative to their peers. For this reason, I compare Pinto’s age to the other league leaders. It is important to note that Pinto has always been rather old for his league. However, because few of the players whose numbers in a particular category are younger than him, the significance of this age difference is diminished. 2012: Florida State League 2012 (age 23) 15th in BB/K ratio (.62) Only 7 players with a better BB/K ratio were younger than 23 (Pinto’s age) No player with a better BB/K ratio had an ISO as high as Pinto (.178)- the highest ISO amongst players with a better BB/K ratio was .140 [*]10th highest ISO (.178) Only 5 players with a higher ISO were younger than him Only 1 player with a higher ISO had a higher batting average (Yellich) Only 1 player with a higher ISO had a higher OBP 2013: Eastern League (age 24) 12th in BB/K ratio (.83) Only 3 players with a higher BB/K ratio are younger than 24 (Pinto’s age) Only 1 player with a higher BB/K ratio has a higher ISO than Pinto [*]13th in ISO Only 4 players with a higher ISO are younger than 24 Only 2 players with a higher ISO have a higher batting average Only 1 player with a higher ISO has a higher OBP Pinto’s excellent numbers in K/BB ratio have led to both a high batting average and a high OBP (despite posting rather normal BABIP) and his high isolated slugging has led to a high slugging percentage. Also, notice how few players possess the power and plate discipline that Pinto does. 2012- Florida State League: BABIP of .326 6th in batting average (.295) 4 players with a higher batting average were younger than 23 [*]11th in OBP (.361) 5 players with a higher OBP were younger than 23 [*]5th in SLG (.473) 2 players with a higher SLG were younger than 23 2013- Eastern League: BABIP of .360 7th in batting average (.312) 2 players with a higher batting average are younger than 24 [*]6th in OBP (.418) No player with a higher OBP are younger than 24 [*]8th in SLG (.510) 1 player with a higher SLG is younger than 24 It is relatively rare to find a player with such success in all 3 of these categories. As you would expect, Pinto’s excellent triple slash line has resulted in a very high OPS. 2012- Florida State League: 4th in OPS (.834) Only 1 player with a better OPS was younger than him (Marlins top prospect Christian Yellich) Of the 12 players with an OPS above .800, only 6 were younger than 23 (Pinto’s age) [*]2013- Eastern League: 4th in OPS (.928) Only 1 player with a higher OPS is younger than him Of the 13 players with an OPS above .850, only 3 are younger than 24 (Pinto’s age) Pinto's excellent offensive production could allow him to play a role similar to Ryan Doumit: a poor defensive catcher whose bat plays in the middle of the order and at 1B/LF/DH. It's possible that the presence of Chris Hermann in AAA is holding him back, but expect a promotion sometimes this season, especially if Doumit is traded.

Personally, I'm hoping for the Twins to be all out sellers: Willingham, Morneau, Doumit, Perkins, and Correia. More importantly, I hope the Twins do whatever they can to get legitimate, impact prospects, even if that means packaging players and paying contracts (namely Morneau's). The Twins aren't going anywhere this year or next year, so there is no reason not to maximize return on these guys now. If the Twins hang on to several of our better trade pieces, we might win 75 games as opposed to 65. This is pointless, not only because it doesn't net anything in return (still no playoffs), but also because it will mean a lower draft selection. As for the money we save, I hope the Twins hang on to it rather than spend it in free agency. Even if we sign an ace (or two), we won't make the playoffs next year. I think we should save some money now, and then spend big on contract extensions down the road so that we can hang on to as much of our future core as possible (Buxton, Sano, Arcia, etc.).

And by the way, 17 players over the past 6 seasons have had a BABIP over .380 including 6 over .390. Also, anyone who hit over .400 for a season must have had a BABIP over .400

I think you missed #2. If Mauer continues to strikeout at his career rate, as opposed the career high rate of the first 2 months, he won't need a .400 BABIP to maintain numbers similar to what he is currently posting. I do think, however, that it is not out of the question that Mauer posts a BABIP close to his career high due to his LD rate.