Mr. Brooks

I see 3 opening day rotation spots that could use an upgrade. So, I don't see how this prevents them from adding an impact player.

Is Kiriloff comparable to Jason Kubel?

With a few days to reflect, I have two theories of what I think might have happened. A) I've always been extremely skeptical whenever TR and ownership said they never said no to money. Never believed it. Why would a GM hamstring himself, if ownership is practically begging him to spend more money? So, perhaps Falvine took Pohlad at his word? They start getting everyone amped up for Darvish, genuinely. Even Pohlad gets in on the hype, because he assumes they get the bit, and are just trying to build some pr for the upcoming season. Then, when things start getting serious, Pohlad says, "whoa, guys. I figured the old regime would have filled you in. When you say ownership never says no to money, that's you falling on the sword for me. You didn't think you could really spend like a drunken sailor, did you?" Falvine are devastated, but need to save face. So, they make an offer that, in real world dollars, looks like (and is) a lot of money. But, small enough that really has almost no chance. Or.... Falvine, and Pohlad genuinely were going to do what it took to get Darvish. They were prepared to go to the upper levels of what he was projected to get. But, the market was weird this year. The big dogs were sitting it out. And, that old Pohlad ideology of, let's get a bargain, let's really make sure we win this deal, starts creeping in. Is it possible, they start to think. Can we have our cake and eat it too? Maybe, just maybe, this off-season is so weird, that nobody will emerge with that 6th year, and that opt out. Like a gambler talking himself into a long shot being a "can't miss", and throwing his mortgage payment onto a gimp horse, they convince themselves they can not just get Darvish, but get him at a bargain too. I, obviously, think B is the more likely of the two, though I'm not sure A is PURE fantasy. I've just never believed this whole, oh Pohlad has never said no garbage.

Signing a 30+ year old top FA is probably always going to be an unwise investment though. That's the price to play in that end of the pool. The Twins FA model has always seemed to be, we're going to try to identify the best bargains in the market. That's not necessarily a bad approach all the time, but it's never going to get you the top guy. It's frustrating that they said he was a priority, but then tried to apply that unrealistic model to him. As you said yourself, they knew that offer probably wasn't going to be good enough. To your last paragraph, sure there are solid players left. But none that move the needle like Darvish would have. And mid market teams don't get an endless window like the big spenders do. Some of us fear that this idea of small, incremental improvements is going to have us peaking as a good, but not WS team before our window closes. With the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox seemingly sitting this one out, it feels like an opportunity that they probably won't get again any time soon.

Nick- (I think) We all love your writing here. I know, personally, you're my favorite. But writing about how much of a difference maker Darvish would be, when it seemed like the Twins might get him- to suddenly arguing he's really not THAT great once the Twins come up short, just feels really weird. I'm not questioning your credibility, but I just can't shake that bizzare feeling when I see you in this thread knocking Darvish now, when you thought he instantly turned them into title contenders prior to them missing out.

On your first point, you yourself acknowledged that they made an offer, knowing it probably wasn't enough. Regardless of the meaning of the raw amount, relative to your budget, submitting an offer that you know isn't good enough, is not a serious attempt. 50K is a lot of money to me. It would be the most I ever offered to pay for a car. But that doesn't make it a serious offer if I walk into a Lamborghini dealership with it. On your second point, I apologize for not noticing that detail. Pro sports injuries, especially when surgery is involved, is almost always given in recovery time. If Heezy is reading, would appreciate any insight on the expected recovery time for this surgery.

Mediocre? I wish!

And that is what I would want the decision to be based on, their tools and larger sample size performance in the minors.

I'd love to see one of these guys make the team, but I'm not really a fan of performance in a tiny sample size of practice games having any influence on whether a player makes the team or not.

Projecting Santana to be back in early May seems quite optimistic to me. The 10-12 week recovery time given puts him at between roughly April 20th- May 4th, at which point he'd need a pretty lengthy rehab stint, considering he'll barely have thrown a baseball in 7 months. I'd guess that the third week in May is about the best case scenario.

If they submitted an offer that they knew wasn't good enough, then they weren't serious about signing him, regardless of how large the figures were relative to previous Twins signings. Especially when the final price was $40+ million less than projected coming into the off-season.

As recently as last Tuesday, on Mackey & Judd, Levine was still saying they were pursuing Darvish? Why would he say that, if they'd already moved on? And, if they had, but were still saying they were pursuing him, do you see how that could create some mistrust of the process?

If opt-outs are such a bad deal for teams, then why are they seemingly handing them out like candy these days?

I'm not sure that's a great way to evaluate their impact. They aren't replacing guys who would have won 0 games. It's better to try to analyze how much each player gains you over who they would have replaced.

This post seems contradictory to the following, which you wrote in your previous article: "Darvish would be an awesome fit on the Twins and would lift them to serious championship contender status almost instantly." What FA pitchers remaining do you think lift the Twins to serious championship contenders immediately?

Yeah, IMO there was exactly one "high caliber" starting pitcher available in FA this year, and he's gone. I see a few mid caliber pitchers left.

Won't those meaningless ST innings "that can now go to a young player that actually needs them" just go to some non-roster invitee that we've never heard of?

Because Bellenili isn't BFF with Thibs?

Perhaps the offer wasn't good enough.

Does anyone actually have any evidence that Darvish didn't want to come here?

I'm not sure what you mean by some of this. What do you mean when you say Napoli brings more balance? He's even more HR or nothing at this point than Vargas is. You also mention league average. Vargas is actually slightly better than league average the last 3 years, while Napoli is well below league average the last 3 years.

I don't think anyone will disagree that you build your foundation through your milb system. But, I think for the most part, that foundation is pretty well set. Could probably see one more starting pitcher emerge this year, but there is room in the rotation, Darvish won't be blocking that player. At some point, you also need to add walls, and a roof. Otherwise, no matter how impeccable your foundation is, it's still just a big hole in the ground. Do you have any examples of recent WS champions who were solely built from within? I'd venture that most, if not all, eventually added a big time piece or two to put them over the top. One might argue that they are still a year away from really needing that piece. And, typically I might agree. This isn't a typical off-season, though. With many of the big players seemingly sitting this one out, to reset the luxury tax for Harper and Machado next year, this might be the only legitimately reasonable chance that the Twins will have to add the best FA available.

State income tax is paid where the money is earned, not where you live.

I think they'd probably be fine putting Ervin on the 60 day DL. 12 weeks puts him roughly a week into May, at which point he'd need a lengthy rehab assignment. At worst, he probably misses one more start than he would have needed to.

Ugh, Napoli was worth a half a win... in the negative last year. If Napoli has a higher OPS than Vargas in 2018, I'll eat my hat.