Dance with Disco Dan

Start No. 4 (04/22/14) Ryan took his third loss of the season as the Kernels fell to the Peoria Chiefs, a Cardinals affiliate, by the score of 4-1. The Kernels offense was shut down by the Chiefs’ Nick Petree, a 23-y.o., 2013 draftee who is dominating the Midwest League. Ryan threw 91 pitches over 5.2 innings, with 55 pitches thrown for strikes. He exited the game trailing 3-0. The Chiefs’ lineup featured top Cardinal prospects Carson Kelly (#7 ESPN, #10 BA) and Juan Herrera (#15 MLB.com) Ryan’s game line reflects a decent outing in which he fell one out short of achieving a Quality Start (if you put any stock in that statistic). What is not shown in the game line—and what factored substantially in the Chiefs’ scoring—is that Ryan threw 3 wild pitches and surrendered 3 stolen bases. Two of the three wild pitches advanced runners into position to score on subsequent plays that would not have plated those runners. This is the first game that he has shown that type of wildness and the first time he has been victimized by the running game. On the positive side, Ryan struck out 5 batters (four swinging), surrendered only one extra-base hit (a double), and did well to limit the scoring given the number of Chiefs that reached scoring position. Ryan’s game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (L, 1-3) 5.2 6 3 2 2 5 0 4.43 [/TABLE] Ryan had good results against the Chiefs’ higher-rated prospects: Kelly was 0-3; and Herrera was 1-3, 2B, K. Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (link is to Ryan’s MiLB.com page for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR MID 1 3 4.43 4 4 0 0 0 20.1 25 12 10 0 7 18 0.45 .305 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280

Start No. 3 (04/15/14) Ryan followed up his best professional outing with easily his worst outing. After going seven strong innings in his prior start, he managed to complete only three innings against the South Bend Silver Hawks, a Diamondbacks affiliate. The Silver Hawks turned the line-up over twice in those three innings, sending 19 men to the plate against Ryan in a 7-5 loss. The Silver Hawks’ lineup featured Diamondback prospects Stryker Trahan (#4 ESPN, #7 Baseball America) and Daniel Palka (#15 Minorleagueball.com). The Silver Hawks jumped on Ryan right away scoring three runs in the first inning. They started the game: walk; single; single; double; sacrifice fly. The Silver Hawks scored two more runs in the third inning. When Ryan was replaced to start the fourth inning, the Kernels trailed 5-1. Overall, Ryan surrendered 8 hits and 2 walks. There were few, if any, positives in this start but it should be noted that Ryan struck out a season high 5 batters and four of those struck out swinging. His game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades 3.0 8 5 5 2 5 0 4.91 [/TABLE] Ryan did not fare well against the Silver Hawks’ higher-rated prospects: Strahan was 2-2, 2 runs, RBI; and Palka was 2-2, run, 2 RBIs. Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (link is to Ryan’s MiLB.com page for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team [/TD] W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR [TD]1 2 4.91 3 3 0 0 0 14.2 19 9 8 0 5 13 0.32 .328 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280

Start No. 2 (04/10/14) Ryan pitched a very strong game against the Great Lakes Loons, a Dodgers affiliate, and picked up the win in his second start of the season. The Kernels’ offense supported Ryan’s efforts by jumping on Dodger prospect Zach Bird (#13 ESPN & MLB.com) resulting in a decisive 11-2 victory. The Loons’ lineup featured Dodger prospects Jesmuel Valentin (#6 ESPN, #15 Minorleagueball.com), Jacob Scavuzzo (#14 MLB.com) and Kyle Farmer (#10 ESPN, #20 MLB.com). Ryan’s outing was far and away his best as a professional. After failing to get out of the 5th inning in his first start, Ryan went a full seven innings and faced only 26 batters. He gave up six hits, did not walk a batter, and struck out five. But for a fielding error on a play that, if made, would have ended the 5th inning, Ryan shut out the Loons. His game line was as follows: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (W, 1-1) 7.0 6 1 0 0 5 0 2.31 [/TABLE] If one were looking to pick nits on a terrific performance, it could be noted that three of the six hits Ryan surrendered were well-struck doubles and he did hit one batter. One thing to monitor as Ryan’s season progresses is that he’s been fly-ball prone so far this season with a GO/AO rate of .39. Ryan fared decently against the Loons’ higher-rated prospects: Valentin went 0-3, K; Scavuzzo went 2-3, 2 singles; and Farmer went 0-3, K, 2 DPs. Ryan’s season stat line is as follows (link is to Ryan’s MiLB.com page for more granular stats): [TABLE=width: 615] Team [/TD] W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG CR [TD]1 1 2.31 2 2 0 0 0 11.2 11 4 3 0 3 8 0.39 .262 [/TABLE] http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l118&t=p_pbp&pid=592280

¿Cuál describe Bartlett? 1) We live with the strikeouts because his glove is special. 2) He is a butcher in the field but, boy, he mashes. 3) He has compromising photos of Gardy.

Start No. 1 (04/05/14) Ryan took the loss in his first start of the 2014 season. The Kernels were shut out 6-0 by the Clinton LumberKings, a Mariners affiliate. The LumberKings’ lineup featured Mariner Top 20 prospects Austin Wilson (#3 ESPN, #6 BA) and Tyler O’Neill (#20 MLB.com). Ryan’s overall line was poor as he gave up five hits and three walks in 4.2 innings but nearly all the damage was done in one rough inning. Ryan pitched shut-out baseball through the first four innings allowing only three base runners. Unfortunately, in the 5th inning he allowed three singles and two walks before being replaced with the bases loaded. In total, he was charged with three earned runs: [TABLE=width: 553] Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Ryan Eades (L, 0-1) 4.2 5 3 3 3 3 0 5.79 [/TABLE] Of the five hits Ryan surrendered, only one went for extra-bases--a triple in the 2nd inning. He retired Wilson and O’Neill twice each and struck them out back-to-back in the 4th inning. Wilson drew a walk from Ryan in the 5th inning.

RYAN EADES http://www.milb.com/images/592280/generic/90x135/592280.jpg Position: Right-Handed Pitcher. Height/ Weight: 6’3’’ 198 lbs. Age: 22 years old on Opening Day (As a December birthday, Ryan will be 22 all season). Drafted: By the Twins in the 2nd Round of 2013 (43rd overall) [Note: previously drafted by the Rockies in the 19th Round of 2010 (590th overall)]. Signing Bonus: $1,294,100 (Note: this amount was the MLB-assigned value for the 43rd selection) College: Louisiana State University 2013 College Stats: Ryan was LSU’s Saturday starter in 2013 pitching behind Aaron Nola who currently projects to be a mid-1st round selection in 2014: [TABLE] W L ERA FIP GS IP ER H HR BB K WHIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9 8 1 2.79 3.90 17 100 31 101 3 32 78 1.33 0.27 2.88 7.02 [/TABLE] Pre-Draft Sentiment: Baseball America (37th-ranked prospect); ESPN’s Keith Law (59th-ranked prospect). I only have pay-access to ESPN so I can only share Law’s pre-draft analysis. Law characterized Ryan’s ceiling as “a league-average starter.” The key takeaways from his analysis: · Fastball is 91-94 mph, “without great life but gets some deception from his delivery that lets him put the fastball past college hitters up in the zone”; · Changeup is 79-81 mph “with very good arm speed and feel”; · Curveball is “slurvy at 77-79 [mph], lacking the depth of a true curve or the plate-crossing tilt of a true slider”; · Needs to get stronger, “more for durability than added velocity”; and · Needs to “switch to either a true curve or a true slider”. Below is a post-draft scouting report from Bleacher Reports which generally concurs with Law's analysis and makes a MLB comp of Alex Cobb (we'd take it!): http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1642027-ryan-eades-prospect-profile-for-minnesota-twins-2nd-round-pick 2013 Minor League Stats: After signing, Ryan joined the Elizabethton Twins in the Appalachian Rookie League where he made 10 relief appearances: [TABLE] W L ERA G GS IP ER H HR BB K WHIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9 0 0 4.60 10 0 15.2 8 13 0 12 13 1.60 0 6.9 7.5 [/TABLE] 2014 Twins Prospect Rankings: Minorleagueball.com (No. 20); MLB.com (outside top 20); ESPN (outside top 10); Fangraphs (outside top 15); Baseball America (outside top 15); Baseball Prospectus (outside top 10). 2014 Assignment: Ryan will begin 2014 as part of the Cedar Rapids Kernels’ starting rotation. Videos: Below are links to three short videos featuring Ryan: On the mound for LSU ( shot from behind the plate): Working out this off-season (he is fit): Another off-season work out video (at the 1:39 mark he discusses his pitching style, the pitches he throws, and his pitch grips): Tidbits: Native of Slidell, LA . . . Tore his labrum as a high-school junior . . . Surgery to repair his shoulder was performed by Dr. James Andrews . . . Did not pitch as a high-school senior . . . Named 2011 Cape Cod League Pitcher of the Year . . . Late father, Ned, was a catcher in the Cincinnati Reds organization . . . Majored in Sports Administration-Commerce at LSU . . . Recently engaged to Alexa Hardy. Twitter: @R_Eades37 (I am not a Twitter-ite so I won’t be bringing the Board any choice tweets but I am providing the handle for any that are interested in following him).

I'll provide updates for Ryan Eades.

The rise of Aiken is JUST what the Twins needed. Now they just need the everyone at the top to enjoy good health and continued good performance and the Twins will land a top-of-the-rotation-caliber pitcher OR the first position player off the board. I will be very happy if the Twins find themselves with that choice.

Thanks for the link to the article. I enjoy reading detailed analyses like that one. This topic has been driving me mildly bananas in the way its discussed in the media. Analysts and reporters work the word "unfair" into nearly everything I read or watch on the issue. The implication is that because it is unfair it must be removed from the CBA. In my estimation, the reporters themselves don't get it or (more likely) they think the public is too dim to get it. Either way, the conversation has been reduced to "Bad things are bad. Bad things go away makes things Good." This system was INTENDED to be unfair. It is a mechanism with no other purpose than to give teams a better chance at keeping certain free agents by placing a substantial drag (draft choice compensation) on their free-market value. Every person involved in negotiating the CBA understood the purpose of this rule. It'd be incredibly heartening to hear one player, agent, or even a mainstream media member acknowledge that everyone on the players' side of the table understood what was being agreed to and that it was deemed acceptable in light of the other concessions made by the owners. It'd be nice to hear someone with a national voice say, "Yes, it stinks to be in Drew's or Santana's position but the players union bargained for other and/or greater benefits at the expense of a few its members' free agency. The union and the players continue to reap these other and greater benefits, so any discussion that involves doing away with the qualifying offer system must also contemplate some concession by the players." There is just something irksome (to me, obviously) about one side of a deal complaining about a provision without acknowledging that they were compensated for the very thing they are complaining about. BTW, the same thing goes on in the NFL with the transition tag. No doubt, it truly sucks when you're the player the provisions impact directly but the players as a whole have benefited in other ways and the unions decided that they were acceptable trade-offs. I have yet to hear a QO free agent or transition tag player take their unions to task for agreeing to the provisions in the first place. It'd be refreshing. Now whether the QO is working or has unintended consequences that make it less effective than anticipated, is another conversation entirely.

I wonder if the same group of scouts that gave us Levi "I am such a disappointment I NEVER get discussed in this forum" Michael are responsible for scouting Turner given the proximity of UNC and NC State. Even acknowledging the uncertainties involved in projecting human performance, this thought unnerves me just a little.

I am formally signing up for the anyone-but-Turner draft package. I'd be disappointed if the Twins reached for a quick-to-the-majors college pitcher over a higher-ceiling high school player but I'd beside myself if we used a top-5 pick on a light-hitting college position player. If the top pitchers remain healthy through the draft, all the position players could very well still be on the board when the Twins pick. Nothing I've read convinces me Turner is (or will be) the best position prospect in the draft. He sounds like a nice player that deserves first-round consideration but, please TR, not at no. 5.

Sadness. I hope the surgery goes well and that this is just a momentary set back. The man is clearly a talent and I don't expect this to impact his hitting ability. I must admit, though, I am having a hard time thinking of many position-player TJ cases. I hope Miguel keeps his spirits high (and his weight low) as he rehabs.

I was convinced that Houston would take the local boy, Appel, and I recall really hoping that the Twins would take Correa if that happened. I'd recently read a really well done feature about Correa and his all-baseball-all-the-time life in P.R. and decided that: (1) he was more of a sure thing than Buxton (who had played comparatively little baseball and against inferior competition) and (2) he had a higher ceiling than the remaining pitchers. When Houston's deal with Correa was announced, I rubbed my hands together in anticipation of getting Appel. Then, almost immediately, there were reports that Appel wanted more than slot from the Twins. Given that he had Boras as his agent, the reports had to be taken seriously. So, I immediately jumped ship on Appel and climbed aboard the S.S. Buxton. Happily, T.R. picked him and I've been enjoying everything about the Buxton experience. I will say, however, if we had Correa in our system because Houston had taken Buxton, there'd still be a lot to be excited about.

I love the healthy Anderson but how often do we see that? And he doesn't come cheap for what is essentially a make-good opportunity ($8 million next year and with a $12 million club option for 2015). If the Twins were close to contention, it may be worth a gamble. I don't see it given where the club is now. Injury history per Wikipedia: 2010 - Forearm strain (missed almost half the season) 2011 - Tommy John Surgery (made 13 starts before undergoing Tommy John Surgery in June) 2012 - Recovery from Tommy John Surgery (made 6 starts before landing on the DL with a side oblique strain) 2013 - Ankle injury (appeared in 6 games before suffering an ankle injury, later revealed to have stress fracture in his right foot)

Don't be seduced by the HRs and selected defensive stats. Least season, Arencibia was an offensive blackhole of epic proportions. As mentioned above, his OPS+ was 59 with 100 denoting league average. Mauer had a terrific year and booked a 144 OPS +. So, basically, Arencibia was worse than the average catcher at about the same magnitude that Mauer was better. His terrible .227 OBP was well earned as he only managed 18 walks in 497 PAs. Delmon Young heard about that and said, "J.P. needs to work the count." In a recent piece, Keith Law described him as a below-average defensive catcher which, if accurate, means he is not going to save runs with his glove. The only way adding J.P. is acceptable is if he is cut by Toronto and picked off the scrap heap. Even then, my abiding hope is that the Twins forget he exists and run with what they have or pursue other options.

I am not as hopeful as some others are that Hughes can turn around his career trajectory. The last three years have been pretty poor. But Hughes is relatively young and has a strong arm so, since TR felt he needed to add significantly this off-season, I can understand the interest. I'd like the two pitching signings a lot more if they came when the club was further along in its youth movement. Adding mid-rotation (we hope!) types right now is not going to push the Twins up into contention. Personally, I'd have been fine if they saved the money this year, took their lumps again, and broke out the savings a couple years down the road. Of course, my preferred plan is problematic for both the club and the fans. The club has to worry about alienating an increasingly disgruntled fan base that wants to see a competitive team. And the fans have to worry that the savings stay in the owners' pockets never to be seen again. Here is my never-in-a-million-years-will-this-happen solution: Start with a rebuilding team like the current Twins, Astros or Marlins operating at a payroll far below their normalized payroll because they are turning over their roster and acquiring assets. Right now those teams tell their fan base, "We're rebuilding but we intend to spend when the time is right." It's hard to take statements like that at face value and harder still to verify that teams live up to their pledge. But what if a money-where-his-mouth-is owner (like Mark Cuban if MLB would ever approve a Cuban-type) paid the savings into an dedicated account that the fan base could view online. Imagine being an Astros fan and suffering through a season in which the team had a $20 million dollar payroll. You'd feel a lot better about management's intentions if you could log on and see $30 million waiting to supplement a normalized payroll down the road. I know I would. Of course, there are a million and one reasons why that would be a bad idea for management. But its fun to think about.

Oh well. 1-9 down the stretch. The boys did all the could do to get that 4th pick. I hope all the top prospects stay healthy and productive. There are at least five players I'd be excited to add if the draft was today.

I remember slapping my forehead thinking about 2 years $10 million for Correia knowing McCarthy signed for 2 years $15.5 million. Goes to show what I know. For at least the first year, Correia provided more value by pitching 50 more innings at near league average (95 ERA+). Credit to TR who had more faith in Correia's ability to be durable and (relatively) effective. I thought he'd get crushed straight to Rochester.

I too have been closely monitoring Eades' performance in E-town. I watched his college world series start after the Twins drafted him and I've been worried about what the Twins have in him ever since. It was a very underwhelming performance. As a second-rounder, I expected some quality to jump out - whether it be velocity, command, or a strong secondary pitch. He had none of that. Admittedly, I saw only one performance late in a season so I was willing to chalk it up to a bad day. But his decidedly mediocre results against mostly younger players in the Appy league has reinforced my concerns.

Ha. Our most polarizing prospect. For the entertainment value it would provide this board alone, yes please, Adam Walker. Since I live at the south pole, I would gladly throw him into the Willingham deal in return for a AA starter that the Twins believed was a rotation piece in the future.

I am not even suggesting we ask for a proven player. I am suggesting that, in addition to Willingham, we can add a prospect or two to improve the level of prospect we get back. Obviously, there will be 1000s of possible permutations and 1000s of differing opinions on each one. For example, Mike Wright is listed the No. 6 O's prospect on MLB.com. I know nothing about him except: 1) he posted solid numbers at AA this season; and 2) there is no way the O's send him our way just for Willingham. But, if we add one of our non-elite prospects that the O's like to the pot, maybe they bite. Of course, I have no idea how the Twins value Wright or who the O's think would be an acceptable throw in to make the deal. But with 48 hours to discuss the matter, I hope there are dozens of proposals made trying to get a better prospect than Willingham can bring by himself. Time to start leveraging the system. Maybe they'll even take Levi Michael and we can all stop pretending he doesn't exist.

It seems that there are very few prospect-for-prospect trades in MLB. I imagine that no one wants to be on the wrong side of an inherently risky deal. But with the Twins sitting as much minor-league talent as anyone, I would like to see them use that depth to leverage Willingham up to a prospect that they really like. Get creative, TR. You have 48 hours to talk about the players in your system that the O's like. Expand that trade if you can get some arms you like.

PTBNL identified: In related news, I am officially old. He still looks the same and I look like him now.

Right. That was my tongue-in-cheek point. Dodgers are stuck in a bad way with that mope and his huge contract. God forbid, TR got talked into taking on Ethier. Yikes. Send back Gardy's cuddle-buddy Punto or their best Dodger Dog vendor. Whatever.

As long as the PTBNL is not Andre Ethier, I say good luck Drew, have a good career.