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Dance with Disco Dan

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Everything posted by Dance with Disco Dan

  1. Dance with Disco Dan
    Positive: Terry Ryan is smart and capable of learning from mistakes so, in the aftermath of holding on to his 34-y.o., never-will-be-better left fielder last off-season, he will forget that Perkins is a local boy and aggressively shop his 30-y.o., never-will-be-better reliever. It's okay TR. You correctly identified Perkins as a viable closer and smartly bought out his first 3 years of free agency making him a fantastic bargain given his current production. Perkins is now a prime asset. As nice as it is to have a shut down closer, its a meaningless extravagance for a team with bottom of the barrel starters and below-average offense. It is time to pick up the phone. The locals will still get 4 Mauer at bats a game to feel good about their hometown.
  2. Dance with Disco Dan
    Exactly. Even a team of Bill James, Nate Silver, and Matlock would be unable to determine if and when the Twins shift from losing-because-that's-how-bad-we-are to actual deliberate tanking. Can you ever really tell when a fish is bathing?
  3. Dance with Disco Dan
    There is so much to like down on the farm. It is really exciting and a great distraction to the ongoing struggles of the big club. The saddest thing about your list and tiers is that 2010 1st rounder Wimmers made it and he might be learning how to pitch left-handed for all we know but 2011 1st rounder Michael was (rightfully) excluded and no one has piped up with some support. Less than 3 years in and not a soul is still dreaming on the guy.
  4. Dance with Disco Dan
    Is that right? He is certainly doing well today. Also, I have to be honest that given the players he decided to start, his right-handed options to split up his lefties are mostly worse. I'd have preferred 2)Mauer 3) Plouffe 4) Morneau 5) Arcia 6) Dozier if breaking up the lefties is important to him. But, Gardy's magic sauce has led to a strong start and I am enjoying seeing Gibson in the bigs.
  5. Dance with Disco Dan
    I was sitting here bummed about Gardy's backsliding line-up management when I saw he slid Dozier's .228/.301/.371 into the second spot. Then .... a five-run first inning and Dozier on base in his first two at bats. It's like watching someone stay every time with a 13 against a dealer 10 and winning each time. It can happen but it doesn't make it a good idea. Oh well, as long as he doesn't start sucking the dealer's bust cards, I'll hold my tongue.
  6. Dance with Disco Dan
    Bryant a bit of a surprise - they must really see him as a viable 3b or corner outfield because Rizzo is locked in on 1b for several years.
  7. Dance with Disco Dan
    It'll be interesting to see what Appel signs for. If you believe Jim Callis, he turned down $6 million from them last year, with the leverage to go back for his senior year. Glad it worked out for him.
  8. Dance with Disco Dan
    Somebody feed Aaron Judge. I guess I've been ignoring what 6'7" 255lbs would actually look like in a room full of normal sized 18 year olds. I hope he doesn't get hungry and start snacking on Frazier.
  9. Dance with Disco Dan
    Thanks. I agree he should pull out all the stops to better his and his family's future. Fair play, for sure. Unfortunately for him, he does not have the Appel option of passing on the best offer and re-entering next year's draft. He'll have to sweat out three years of health during his arm's 18-20 development years while Appel only had to sweat one year with a more mature arm. I still believe Appel was a little nutty, on a risk/reward basis, to turn down the Pirates best offer even though it worked out very well for him. Stewart thumbing his nose at a Twins slot offer to go to college would put him way past Appel on the risk curve. I hope for his sake no one is advising him that it would be a good idea. If I am the Twins, if he is best on their board, I take him even in the face of any same or similar "threat" by Stewart.
  10. Dance with Disco Dan
    I am with Gunnarthor, Jeremy. Will you flesh out the Red Sox/Stewart thought? Are you suggesting that the Red Sox would make a pre-draft "deal" with Stewart that Stewart would tell the Twins to match or not draft him? He clearly has as much leverage as a kid can have under the current draft rules but it seems the height of hubris to pass up slot money at no. 4. As a high school prospect facing an alternative of three more years of free pitches and needing to remain top 4 prospect after those additional miles are put on his arm (even ignoring the risk of a football-related injury), it would shock me if he followed through on any such threat.
  11. Dance with Disco Dan
    If that is the sum total of Rosario's transgressions, I am pleased as that is the most benign of the scenarios that I crossed my mind when this thread started. I am glad the benching was not related to off-field issues or insubordination/churlishness. Unless Rosario is completely clueless (a la Hanley Ramirez), he will recognize and acknowledge his lack of effort and come back playing harder. Addendum: All of the above assumes Rosario was actually giving up at bats and playing lackadaisically as reported by GreenGoblin. I know a small segment of the posters are not willing to rule out that the Twins are simply making up reasons to antagonize one of their best prospects by benching him. To antagonize is sometimes its own reward, I guess??
  12. Dance with Disco Dan
    I wish you hadn't shown me that photo. I liked Frazier 50% more before I had to factor in the eye-black-indicates-the-kid-might-very-well-be-a-dope/dbag into my analysis. On the other hand, if he'd gone with some clowny-white - with his hair color - I would DEMAND the Twins take him. I like Frazier and wouldn't mind if he was the pick. Given that he is expected to go 6 or lower it seems like the Twins should be able to negotiate some savings if they like him best. I am still riding the Stewart train if the "Big 3" are gone.
  13. Dance with Disco Dan
    Damn you, Kiley McDaniel for reviving a shred of hope that one of the consensus top 3 falls to the Twins. It took me awhile to let it go and focus on the likely candidates at pick no. 4. I would normally chalk this report up as Houston posturing, to warm Gray or Appel up to the idea of taking a discount. But McDaniel's contention that the owner is flying around to look at Moran makes me take this idea much more seriously. I guess we'll see soon. If this happens, sign me up for whoever is left. Would love either Gray or Bryant.
  14. Dance with Disco Dan
    As others pointed out, the biggest problem with the "trade down" plan is the uncertainty that an above-slot worthy player will be available at pick no. 43. Moreover, the plan is almost certainly being considered by the three teams picking ahead of the Twins which would decrease the likelihood of a McCullers-type being available. Even if we assume that the team picks Appel will not be paying under slot, the other two teams could very well negotiate first-round bonuses that'd allow them to employ this strategy both before and at higher dollars than the Twins. If the top 3 players go as expected, I'd prefer that they take Stewart at slot (if he insists on above slot then pass), if not then Frazier at slightly below slot (if he insists on more then pass), if not then Shipley at a deep discount and try to employ the "trade down" strategy. Only 15 more days to obsess about this. Oh no.
  15. Dance with Disco Dan
    You are right, of course. I actually tried to remove the JD Drew comparison out of my post before anyone responded. Drew was a 44 WAR player. I just have a deep and abiding disdain for him as a player that is not supportable when I look at the career he put together. Hence, my failed attempt to timely remove my snarky comparison.
  16. Dance with Disco Dan
    That tweet smells like pure negotiating tactics not a sincere commitment to riding A&M football's bench and throwing free pitches for three years. The one unknown variable that might convince me otherwise is what his family's financial situation is like. Many kids of surgeons, traders, and top execs have a very different view of/relationship with money than kids that grow up in work-a-day families. If the bonus money is not only life changing for the player but also his family I can't see him passing it up. But it's fair play to insist he will to squeeze that last dollar.
  17. Dance with Disco Dan
    Although every report I've read lauds Meadows' overall skill set, some have questioned his interest in the game/intensity/grittiness or whatever that special sauce is that convinces Gibson that the D'backs should trade J. Upton. Usually, I dismiss that type analysis out of hand. But for some reason it is bothering me about this player. For that reason, give me Frazier over Meadows if the Twins go for a high school bat.
  18. Dance with Disco Dan
    Unlike a lot of posters, I am out on Manaea as a top-5 pick. I think both his peripherals and results have been underwhelming this season. So I'd be disappointed if the Twins take him or Meadows (has a great-talent/doesn't-love-the-game guy ever worked out?) I'd also probably be disappointed with the McGuire scenario primarily because I just don't know enough about the prospects outside the first round that they'd presumably spend the saved bonus pool money on. I am riding the Stewart train if the first three go as expected.
  19. Dance with Disco Dan
    Me too. I am all in on the Stewart lottery ticket. Just grimace and roll those dice, TR.
  20. Dance with Disco Dan
    For months I was preparing to be content with Manaea as the Twins' pick but when I hear reports about a once-a-week pitcher losing significant velocity, I head for the exits. I'd now much prefer they draft the best bat rather than settle for the fourth best college arm (if Manaea can even be considered that). It's a shame that this year there are no enticing bats that would push the near-term college arms down just a bit. Just a bummer of a year for a team with a bat rich minor league system to be picking fourth. Too bad none of the pro leagues allow their teams to trade draft picks. What!? All but one league does? $#@^%#^
  21. Dance with Disco Dan
    Another two weeks in the books and Buxton's walk rate is holding 19%. I am trying hard not to get too excited but elite plate discipline was the one skill I did not dare hope he'd have at this stage of his career. Of course, low-A pitchers are not likely in and around the plate as much as the pitchers he'll face up the ladder but I am still very happy to see that he controls his strike zone.
  22. Dance with Disco Dan
    For the last two weeks I've been warming to the idea of taking Kohl Stewart even though prep arms are the biggest crap-shoots in the draft. I would really like to see the Twins take a pitcher with a top of the rotation ceiling and I am leery of the performance fall-offs by Manaea and Stanek. I don't believe Stewart's Texas A&M commit will provide him nearly as much leverage as if he had signed elsewhere. Johnny Football will only be a Sophomore and is not likely headed to the NFL early because he's so small. The gamble in me says go for it. Ultimately, I will be happy when clearer heads than mine take Manaea. For now, its fun to dream on the next Texas fire-baller in my team's system.
  23. Dance with Disco Dan
    Of all the many exciting stats put up by the Twins' young prospects thus far, the one I am most excited about is Buxton's 14% walk rate. I really had no idea what to expect vis a vis his plate discipline. The small sample from this season gives me a lot of hope that we'll see that speed on the bases.
  24. Dance with Disco Dan
    Jokin, thanks for your post. I didn't realize Baseball-Reference had this type of information. Another cyber rabbit-hole for me to waste a weekend surfing. I know Hicks struggled early at each move up and that this is a 2-level leap. Although I was in the minority on this site (in my strong preference for sending Hicks to AAA at least until Super-2 status was avoided), I was still looking forward to seeing Hicks excel and thought he might after a strong spring. Sadly, my hopes for his at-bats have gone from "hit it hard, big guy" to "oh, for all that's holy, please put it in play before your psyche is crushed beyond repair."
  25. Dance with Disco Dan
    The unbelievably strong starts of Arcia, Sano, Buxton, and Rosario have done wonders for my prospect loving heart which has barely survived Hicks looking unbearably over-matched. I mean who was he hitting in spring training? Were they all AA pitchers? Anyway, dropping him down in the line up might help things and it seems to have cleared Mauer's mind. I think Joe was going up to the plate just feeling plain old bad for Hicks and was swinging and missing in sympathy. I think Parmelee better wake up before the All-Star game or I am personally driving Arcia from Rochester to the Twins Cities and dropping him at Ryan's door step.
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