Dance with Disco Dan

Congratulations on the first film. I enjoyed it very much, all the more because of its connection to the Twins. I am looking forward to your second film and I just joined your list of backers. Good luck meeting your goal. I am worried now that I've signed up for Kickstarter, I will get sucked into an internet-hole and spend hours reviewing all the projects. I'm a notoriously easy touch so following your link could get expensive for me.

You are right about Gibson. I am more agnostic about sending him down given his age and past medical history. If he is ready I would be fine with him in the opening day rotation. However, my post was primarily about my hopes that the Twins send HICKS down to control his service time. I think you would agree that is an entirely different discussion and, frankly, the one I thought we were engaged in. In sum, Hicks down for control regardless of readiness on opening day. Gibson in rotation whenever he is ready.

Sorry you are over the topic. Unless and until Ryan hacks the Pohlads' checking account password, however, decisions about promoting a player to MLB must factor in the financial ramifications of that decision as well as the readiness of the player. If not, it's akin to GM malpractice - unless you GM for the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers. It'd be nice to promote good young talent the second it's ready to succeed at the MLB level. Unfortunately, that's not life under the CBA for 27 teams. In a vacuum, I'd love to see Hicks start the season in CF if he is ready. But I'd rather see the Twins competing for the playoffs sooner than later and maximizing the low-cost control of its young talent will allow them the best chance to achieve that.

I am in your camp. The Twins should be playing the same player "control" game that the smart teams do (See, e.g., the Rays). Particularly because having Hicks or Gibson on the roster on opening day will not make or break the season. I still have hope Hicks starts in AAA and is, if still playing well, brought up the day after the Twins achieve the extra year of control.

TK is the scary old warlock charged with keeping the flame of Playing-the-Game-the-Twins-Way burning bright. They keep him locked in his tower 10 months a year and then bring him to spring training to scare everyone into taking extra bases and hitting the cut-off man. He is too powerful to be unleashed full time. His we-win-this-way ideology has crushed more than a few fragile psyches and pissed off many others.

Two weeks? Sorry, I anticipate that the legion of half-fullers on this board will run that line up to O/U 68.5 by next Wednesday. Seriously though, I would hit the over at 65 but not hard. Too many Who's-its? pitching and playing up the middle. Also regression is very probable for many of the players that played a big part in winning 66 last season (Willingham, Plouffe, Diamond, Doumit).

Schoenfield really piled on when he said that only the $23 million-dollar Astros roster is between the Twins and the bottom of the talent pile, He's right but still. A decent human being doesn't tell the sweet fat girl she looks terrible in her prom dress. A decent human being tells her that her hair looks really nice. I guess Schoenfield should get some credit for the D- grade for the pitching staff. That was a social-promotion passing grade if I ever saw one. Move on to 2014 Twins pitchers - you are the new teacher's problem now.

I agree about Willingham. I think this off-season represented his highest trade value. Two years of a power bat at $7 million/year is a screaming value given the contracts given other over-30 OFs like Cody Ross and Shane Victorino. Unfortunately, it appears the off-season dealing is all but over. There are very few obvious trades for Willingham at this stage. So, I am hopeful Willingham is healthy and productive in the first half and brings back a prospect mid-summer.

Possible I guess, but if he wanted to stay at Stanford, why hire Boras? And why not send a note to all MLB teams that he wasn't signing. Happens a lot with high school players. I think he wanted to stay at Stanford rather than sign for what he was offered. As for when has Boras been burned, the answer is not often. He is good. The two recent examples that come to mind are: 1) Publicly blowing up at Amaro after he balked at the 4-year $44 million deal Boras thought he had for Ryan Madson. Lashing out squelched any chance to recalibrate the deal for less money of fewer years. He then rejected a multi-year offer for Madson from the Marlins. Ultimately, Madson signed with the Reds for one year $10 million. Madson promptly blew out his elbow. Madson has signed this season for $3.5 million with a chance to double that by meeting all incentives. 2) The Appel deal. Turning down a $6 million dollar offer and afterward only being able to generate a $3.8 million offer seems like a big miss. All that said, I am not an Appel apologist. He blew it more than Boras. I just expect Boras to be smarter than that. I don't expect it of Appel.

Very good point. Wilfong and Doug Corbett brought back Bruno. The Twins won the talent exchange but definitely put the best mustaches in the deal:

I am going with Rob Wilfong, too. My first memory of having an opinion about who should be on the field is strongly believing that Wilfong NOT Bobby Randall should play second base. I am sure that 99% of my reasoning was that Wilfong had a very solid disco-era mustache and was, therefore, way cooler than Randall. I just checked B-R to see how my boyhood instincts were and I think Wilfong circa 1979 settled the issue once and for all - .313/.352/.458. Of course he quickly regressed. What was interesting to learn was that during his .810 OPS year, Wilfong lead the AL in sacrifice bunts with 25!! Twenty-five!! Even better, 142 for the team as a whole! That is 5.25 games worth of outs. Yikes!! Way to go Gene Mauch!!

I agree that Boras has a very good track record and is deserving of a lot of praise for some of the market-setting deals he has produced. I do, however, believe that most of his ability to bring extra-value to a draft-choice client has been stripped by the current CBA. A draftee has always been limited to the binary choice of sign-with-the-team-that-drafted-him or go/return-to-school. In the past, Boras was able to "set" a top prospect's price and just wait until a team willing to step up drafted him. With the new draft-pool limits and the VERY punitive consequences of spending more than allotted, it is unlikely that any player short of a Harper-level prospect will be able to convince a team into spending significantly more than slot. Pittsburgh offered Appel $900k over slot (roughly 30% over), which I thought was a strong offer and necessarily came at the expense of the rest of their draft class. We'll see how things play out over the next few drafts, but I'd imagine that offers 30% over slot will be rare for top of the draft players (although all bets are off if we see any more Harper-types). I think the real story on Appel is that he and Boras played chicken with Houston on the Astros' offer of $6 million. Appel was the local kid and at the top many draft boards. When they passed on $6 million and the Astros passed on Appel, there was only a couple teams that could offer as much without going over slot (or barely over slot). Before they knew it Appel was in free fall. When Pittsburgh took Appel and offered him 30% over slot, the amount was still $2 million below what was on the table days before. Does Boras look at Appel and say, "Oops, sorry?" Or does he fire the kid up about the insult of it all and send him back to school? Sure Appel is the de facto boss, but when the most successful agent advises his client on a course of action, its tough to imagine a 22 year-old having the backbone to go against him. And its likely Appel was of the same mind. No doubt he has an ego that was bruised when Houston said, we like you best but we want you to accept below slot. The natural reaction is to tell them to pound sand. Maybe they truly believed Houston was bluffing and would take him regardless. Either way, I believe they compounded the mistake of not taking the $6 million by not taking Pittsburgh's $3.8 million. Another year of wear and tear on his arm and the risk of injury or regression are very real. I hope it works out for him but hubris is a killer - it just doesn't kill the agents. Boras will be fine however it works out.

They are certainly taking a risk - a big one. It is known that Appel turned down $3.8 million from the Pirates (more than max slot for pick no. 8). It was also reported, but is less certain, that Houston offered Appel the Corriea deal - i.e. accept $6 million as the first pick. So, depending on what is true, Boras convinced Appel that it was worth risking injury and regression for a maximum upside of $2-4 million. Significant money but enough to turn your back on $4-6 million knowing that the health of a young pitcher is very tenuous? I couldn't in good conscience recommend that gamble to a young man. Boras did. We'll see how it turns out. That said, I would take Appel in a heartbeat at no. 4 if he has a similar season again this year. He is a talent. I don't see how Appel could reject max slot as a 4-year college player.

Boras is a frustrating character. I want him to suffer the consequences when he toughs-up during negotiations against reason and against the best interests of his client. Unfortunately, that can't happen without the real loser being the kid who followed his advice. Shame on any pitcher with the hubris to turn his back on over $3 million (Pirate slot) and probably more if he hadn't floated a number pre-draft that only the first couple teams could give him. Still, I can't wish an injury or regression on a talented 22 year-old. But I can throw shade on the adults in the equation - Boras and his parents. Does anyone think Boras is going to be holding his breath during every Appel pitch during a full college season? He'll be too busy counting his commissions from Fielder et al. and ducking Michael Bourn's phone calls. But I bet Mom and Dad Appel will be sweating every pitch. And they should.

Seattle. One reason: their pitchers don't have to hit. Colorado has two legit superstars right now and could be interesting for that reason but give me the DH any day.

I agree that Willingham's trade value at this point in the off-season is very uncertain. I think they needed to move him before all the free-agent signings started. It is probably best to keep him at this point. I just worry that our oppotunity to maximize his value in trade has passed. Every game he plays for the Twins shortens the below-market control that comprises a good deal of his value. For that reason, I hope that the Twins entertain the idea of trading him at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Willingham is an injury risk and is almost certain to regress, so we don't know how he will be viewed mid-summer. Hopefully, he comes out banging homers and some contender is looking for outfield power. We'll see.

In my opinion, if we are in for a penny with Span and Revere, we should be in for a pound and move Willingham, too. Signed for two more years at $7 million/per means that he has, by far, the most market value on the MLB roster. I know that Ryan has tickets to sell in 2013 and someone has to produce some runs. That said, Willingham's production will entertain but will not carry the Twins into the range of contention. This is the time to plug our collective noses and move all marketable assets. Willingham is coming off a career year and will not retain the value he has now as we move through next two years. Remember the fantastic poo poo platter that one-year of Santana brought back? GMs just wont give back much for one year of control for anyone. And given the contracts Shane Victorino and Cody "Who's that?" Ross got this off season, I have to believe that Willingham is considered a deep-discount option worthy of prospects from teams interested in contending. Hello, Yankees? I believe you are short about 90 home runs.

What combo plate would you offer the Rangers? I can imagine that only Willingham and maybe Perkins would interest them in such a deal. And I think that pair would only save us one top prospect. What do you think might do the trick?

That was my conclusion too. The Twins would have to open up the top end of its prospect list for a "Pick any four" type deal to get the Rangers off the idea of flipping Andrus or Profar for young, superstar-level talent like Price or Stanton. There is no individual or combination of Twins major-leaguers that would interest the Rangers in a trade for one of their stud SS. In my estimation, as great as it would be to have a top flight SS, it wouldn't be worth gutting the minor league pipeline. We have too many holes. That is the type of move a franchise makes when it is ready to make a run at the Series.

You are right about the Rangers. They refused to put Andrus or Profar into any Upton deal this off-season. The current plan is to put one of those players in a Stanton or Price deal at the trade deadline or next off-season. I am not sure what basket of prospects the Twins could offer to get any Rangers interest. Something along the lines of "Pick any 4" which is not a rational move for an rebuilding team.

This was my thought. I like to think that Ryan judiciously conserved his cash after determining that the "affordable" free-agent options were not worth the marginal upgrade. It would be easier to think this if a Correia-sized albatross wasn't roosting on his shoulder. But still... I was hoping the Reds would be in on Span and that we might get Didi Gregorious as part of the deal. Maybe they were and Ryan just liked the Nats offer more. Looking forward to seeing how the Choo/Bruce center-field combo works out. I think the Reds will kick themselves for not giving whatever kicker it took to get Span or Revere.

Now that Casilla is gone, Gardy needs a new guy he can bench for a week for making a loose play in the field. Examples must be set in the name of playing the game the right way or TK the Warlock will loose a 100-year curse on the team. Ryan knows this and has offered up Florimon to be soul-crushed in this fashion. Hoping Florimon satiates Gardy's appetite for shaming the physically-talented, Ryan will sneak Hicks and Arcia into the clubhouse. If all works as planned, these players' confidence will be protected and nurtured by the rational acceptance of any fundamental mistakes they might make. Without Florimon as the staked-goat bait, who knows what happens the first time Hicks over-throws a cut off man? Ryan is a smart man and clearly knows what he is doing.