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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Well I think Ryan needs to go to the IL with a dead arm. I think Bradley will be our best starter and my guess is Kremer will have a sub 4 ERA - will go 4-3 the remainder of the way. I am more optimistic on him that most here. Worst case is he is effectively done. I think there is still quite a bit left in the tank and he has just been a victim of SSS.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    My guess is Kremer is our 2nd best starter the remainder of the year.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Neither of those players meet the 4 or 5 year requirements for the rule 5 draft. Now everything will get wonky after December 1st but those 2 aren't affected for this year.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Hamstringing from what. Where is he holding us back. Who are you calling up that is going to drastically make a difference in 15-20 at bats a month. Jackson is a valuable asset in that he doesn't need constant reps because he isn't a young prospect and can still perform. Granted I would have rather Jeffers not gotten injured and him to be called up after we were able to sneak him through waivers once. The difference is at the beginning of the season there wasn't a big demand for legit catching options. Right now there is still excess demand for catching. The cost to find someone equivalent is $3 -$7 million dollars on the free agent market or trade a top 20 prospect in the offseason. Those are the options. We traded a 25-30th prospect this year for him, and he has now shown positive WAR in consecutive seasons.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    As has been mentioned. Those players part of the union for the minor leagues - not on a 40 man roster, are separated from their MLB counterparts. They will have a minor league season even if there is a lockout.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    It wasn't directed at you. You at least have defendable stance not that I agree with all of it. Pulling up a list of all rookies age 21 isn't even close to answering the discussion we are having. Of course HarmonK loved it.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Rorverdt cost a legit arm in AAA at the deadline Mike. Chayce Mcdermott. So next year your options are signing Jeffers again, Signing Heim or Stephenson to 7+ million AAV contracts or Jake Rogers for around $4 million. We can always bring back Vazquez or Sanchez. Otherwise we will have to trade for another catcher. So yes there is a decent cost to letting him go.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    And as discussed Genao was already on their 40 man. I really question whether people on this board even understand the potential implications. Prospects not currently on the 40 man, if they are added and get a cup of coffee they will be unable to work with coaches in the offseason or play in the minor leagues next year if there is a lockout. So players who have played a full season don't apply, international prospects who were already on the 40 man don't apply. I am not saying we can't just say those risks are overblown, the players can work on their own in the offseason and the new CBA will likely get signed so have a mid to late April start date. However you just can't ignore this issue either.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Thats actually a tad above my knowledge base. So does he need to be called up, remain in AAA or go to the IL?
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lets be serious, this team was never good enough to compete this year. Period. They have outperformed their talent. Pohlad said as much at the breakfast. This is all garnish decoration to try and spruce it up a bit to save face to the players and fans. There is some value in that. I still would have not rather spent this year at the deadline. I rather he had actually paid for a few bullpen arms in free agency. That was the time to buy.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If I am evaluating the trades themselves B-/C+. Overpays for all 3 players, but all all likely ok. For my personally evaluation I give it an F. This was a tired team that only remained in the hunt due to late game heroics. This was not a team to buy significantly for. A closer is a luxury we needed at the beginning of the season - spending for one now at full price is disappointing. The market would have paid handsomely for Jeffers and Larnach. 2027/2028 is our true window to compete.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He was on the 40 man. Thats like us calling up Rodriguez, Gonzalez and Mendez. Those players already are out from working with the team or minors if there is a lockout. There is 3 teams that meet your qualifications out of about 20 still trying to make the playoffs. I don't think we can make an inference yet. I am not saying my opinion is correct - but I at least have a strong theory as to why we may not see high prospects get added to the 40 man and get a cup of coffee like in past years.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You said zero rookie hitters on the roster this year. Fedko was a rookie hitter on the roster this year. All of 19 plate appearances and 16 at bats. I said it tongue and cheek but he met your qualifications.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Teams that are in the Running with players in AAA Arias - Boston came out today said not likely Jenkins - Twins Thomas White - Marlins Culpepper - Twins Ethan Salas - Padres Ralphy Vezquez - Guardians Below top 30 in AAA Montes (Mariners), Genao (Cleveland), Arroyo (Mariners), Miller (Phillies), Smith (White Sox) Then you are 50-100 and get Rodriguez and several more that are in the same boat. This was a very rough look through so there may be some wrong. Right now only 3 organizations that I mentioned earlier, Yankees, Milwaukee and Detroit have called up high level prospects in the last couple of weeks. That is not all teams as was suggested earlier.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Fedko says hi. I agree though. Beyond that - injuries have derailed the possibilities of both Culpepper and Jenkins. You have to way the options of trying them out for less than 60 games vs the extra training and early season games they can get in the minors next years. Its a give and take.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We are talking about calling up top prospects now, not at the beginning of the season. Emerson has 200at bats, Mcgonigle 415, Ewing 264, Pratt is 150 - (not the level of a culpepper or Jenkins), Griffin 225. I can keep going if you wish. It looks like you googled all rookies age 21 LOL. Most of the players have been full time players for the majority of the season, not an August call up for a playoff push. The only 2 that count for what we are considering is Clark, Lombard, and Lara. . . maybe Pratt. Detroit, Yankees and Milwaukee - thats the organization that have called up high level prospects for a push. Yankees and Milwaukee I understand.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Not all places have him as a top 50. He has gone from a fringe top 10 system prospect to around our #4-#5. I think he is underrated from his initial year rankings more than anything.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am not sure Crawford and Gagne are that statistically different. I just went back and looked. For body size and type of player, although I am not expecting this type of career arc or WAR but with his skillset he seems most similar to a Derek Jeter profile. Started out with some speed, very good defense, high batting average/OBP and a little bit of pop. That would be his peak ceiling. There is 2 levels and a decade before we see what he did in his career.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I could really find myself liking a Houston/Culpepper double play combination. Right now we have the defensively square peg Keaschall and the question is where are we going to find a home for him. Ultimately I think 2nd will be his home. I have always been a big Lee fan and I think as a depth piece that plays 50/60% - I think thats the role he will fill out to. Here are your options by mid year 3rd Lee, SS Houston, 2nd Culpepper 1st Lewis/Clemens or 3rd Culpepper SS Houston 2nd Keaschall/Clemens/Lee 1st Lewis
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I could say you are narrowly focused on this year for a game or two, and not next years team. My entire premise of the trade deadline is this isn't a good enough team period to buy with. If you want to cheaply do it fine - I wouldn't call what we did at the deadline cheap. Although we only gave up 1 high upside arm - and 1 high ceiling/low floor international prospect. The issue is you have a short term horizon view and thats why you have the philosophy on dropping Jackson - and bringing up Jenkins and Culpepper. There are downsides though. What happens if Jeffers or Caratini gets hurt. Who are you filling in his spot with? We have no one else at the level of Jackson. The issue with Jenkins and Culpepper is if there is a long lockout that can't continue to work out at the facilities or play in the minor league system until its resolved. I don't know what the right answer but I do have concerns and My horizon goes out further than the next month or two like you.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Is Jackson the reason the Twins lost yesterday? No. If you can get Ryan back to his early season form, find another elite starting pitcher to pair with Bradley and Ryan - Get 4-5 hitters to get on a heater and the bullpen to all meld together and those 15-20 at bats that a different bench bat would be the difference in a world series so be it. Otherwise we will be paying 3+ million or another 20th+ prospect to get another catcher like Jackson.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lets just call it what this team is - It is a tired mediocre team that added some ok talent but likely not enough to get to the playoffs. I am fine with switching out Gray, I don't really care who you want to man one of the outfield spots Roden/Rodriguez/Martin/Wallner/Jenkins. Keeping a 3rd catcher will not determine whether we make the playoff this year. That will come down to starting pitching. With Ryan struggling to get his fastball over 92 mph we are looking at his normal back half slide. The hitters are not hitting as much nor hitting with RISP at the high clip they were doing before. And Buxton is injured. The bullpen is better. Lewis is really starting to catch my eye. Its a small sample, but he is starting to figure it out. Confidence going up and driving the ball the opposite direction. We need 4-5 bats to catch fire. So Jeffers, Larnach, Lewis, Keaschall and Bell all effectively need to get hot together. I just don't see it. At this point I am thinking I am back to hoping for a top 5-6 draft pick in the draft lottery if thats still a thing.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Every other team? I count Lombard, Clark and thats it unless I am missing someone. Red Sox came out and said they don't want to put the pressure on Arias. Maybe a cup of coffee in late September.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Jackson has much more organizational value than fans have. He has shown he can hit at an mlb level (different ways over 2 season) and can provide good defense. I am firmly of the belief the Twins are slotting him in as the backup catcher next year. Granted Rushing has a UCL tear, but the Dodgers traded for Rortvedt. Having the depth is necessary. Catchers had an immense premium this trade deadline and you still have a couple teams, that would gladly make a claim on Jackson. As to Gray be my guest. As to Roden and Wallner - I am not sure. I feel like Roden is starting to figure it out a bit at the MLB level. Yes Wallner is on a heater, so maybe. I think Mendez would be an excellent hitter at extending at bats and putting the ball in play. Jenkins has more upside than everyone.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Again we could have picked him up as a rule 5 draft pick this year.
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