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bird

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Everything posted by bird

  1. bird
    Ash, you spoiled everything for me.
  2. bird
    Ace, catcher, 2-way corner OF
  3. bird
    I would guess you're turning a cute phrase here, but let's be clear about what we're hearing from the most optimistic people out there. We haven't heard anyone talk about the pipeline representing a passel-full of Ace pitchers and perennial All Star position players. I can't recall a single comment on here about ALC pennants and WS appearances being givens. The subject of the thread was Sickle's top 175 rankings. The most salient fact for Twins fans is that Sickles mentioned 13 prospects. Nowhere did he discuss the bust rates of individual players, and nowhere did he discuss the correlation between the quality of a team's pipeline and future wins and losses. Both of these would be great things to explore in greater depth on TD. Maybe someone can bring forth some truly salient facts on these subjects
  4. bird
    Just to buoy your spirits, mike, you'll recall you didn't count chickens like Gibson, Vargas, Santana, an improved Plouffe, a breakout Dozier, and a career year Hughes in 2014. And IIRC, us optimists were pretty consistent about saying 2015 would still be a transition year. Sano, Buxton, and Meyer will all likely be here in 2015. From my own vantage point, things are moving along even better than I had expected last spring. Of course, I also believe Arcia, Gibson, and May are for real and that the chances are better than 75% that any but not all of Pinto, Vargas, Hicks, and Santana are too. It'll be another year probably before all of this translates into the almighty W-L record, but dude, this is going to be a fun team to watch by mid-year.
  5. bird
    Have they passed on an inexperienced talent with talent though? And in favor of a vet of lesser talent? Gibson, May, and Meyer are the first real talents I've seen around these parts in awhile. The last inexperienced talents we had before them had names like Walters, Hernandez, and DeVries. That said, I do agree they tend to distrust young pitchers to perform with any level of consistency. But it's not like Milone is talent-free. He may win the job because he should. Now Correia, that's a different story..
  6. bird
    Fair enough, Chief, to each his own. I'm excited in advance about you becoming excited in 2016.
  7. bird
    Multiple counting of names on a few top 100 lists and throwing it into a table obscures the accurate data on the subject. The general success rates for prospects are fairly well understood by a lot of us. We know, for example, that there's a phenomenally higher rate of success for the top 10 draftees versus the bottom 10 draftees. . But those statistics have zero bearing on what this Top 175 ranking looks like. The Twins have 13 prospects mentioned. Sickles doesn't project bust rates for any of the 200+ prospects mentioned. Whether one tends toward optimism or pessimism, one has to acknowledge that the current Twins prospect pipeline is judged to be superior. One of the very best by any credible measure. Probably the best pipeline in the entire history of the organization, IMO. Anyone who can't get excited by this group of prospects, both the ones newly graduated like Santana, May, Arcia, Vargas, and Gibson or the dozen still in the pipeline, should have their pulse checked.
  8. bird
    Having the kind of prospect pipeline the Twins have is not a matter of "little more than words". It's a reality. Prospects by definition don't translate into wins while they're in the minors, of course, but it's completely reasonable to think that the Twins are on the verge of a transformative turnaround, is it not? One can't make wholesale judgments about the future of an organization based strictly on the relative strength of the pipeline either, since teams employ different strategies. But I sure like our chances, and conversely, can see why there's some angst about the future among Tigers fans, given that they don't have a single prospect that would make the Twins Top 10.
  9. bird
    Some thoughts: 1. If talent was evenly distributed, both in terms of high-end talent and depth of talent, each team would have 4 prospects among the top 120, and they'd have roughly 7 prospects cited here if one includes the Honorable Mention names. By this measurement, the Twins have twice the talent and depth as does an average team. 2. The Twins have 5 prospects among the top 100. The rest of the division has 6. KC 2, CWS 1, CLE 3, DET 0. 3. The Twins have 8 top 175 prospects. KC 6, CWS 5, CLE 5, DET 0 4. The Twins have 13 prospects mentioned. KC 7, CWS 6, CLE 9, DET 4 5. That model of perfection, the Cardinals, have 4 top 100, 6 top 175, 0 honorable mentions beyond those six prospects, which equates to an average farm system according to Sickles. This should not be construed to mean the Cards aren't a franchise of excellence, but maybe it says something about how cyclical and difficult this business is, even for the best-run organizations. And maybe the Cards aren't perfect either.
  10. bird
    All the pitchforks got scooped up quick-like by Detroit fans. Not a single prospect worthy of a spot. Kill the messenger, Tigers fans.
  11. bird
    If his perceived value at the trade deadline is high-average utility player, I'd keep him around, although if Polanco is really blowing up and Santana proves to be for real and Levi Michael comes of age and Nick Gordon is a stud and Wander Javier.... If his perceived value is average everyday SS at the deadline and Santana and/or Polanco are superior options, I'd definitely trade him for a lower-level prospect with a high-risk high reward profile.
  12. bird
    We've had this conversation before and I'll grant you that Gardy wasn't perfectly consistent nor always tactful. But I think it's wholly unfair to suggest he made a habit of seeking opportunities to criticize any of his players in public. The notion of him as unfair in that way is overblown. Gardy and Molly treated Hicks identically in public in how I see the two specific incidents. Both are fair in their criticisms. I was more humored by the outcry over Gardy, who in fact WAS prompted, and explained in a short, to the point comment why he took the action he did with Hicks. And now, we're seeing a number of commenters "throwing Hicks under the bus" ( albeit gently ) here on this thread. Just sayin'.
  13. bird
    I'm a bit humored by the fact that Molitor is receiving praise (rightly so) for taking an action that, when Gardy did the same, he was ridiculed mercilessly for throwing Hicks under the bus. Enjoy the honeymoon, Paulie.
  14. bird
    Yeah, slightly ironic, but tempered by the facts that it wasn't the first or only flaw mentioned, and that the TD complaints about the Suzuki acquisition centered on his offense. I don't recall a single comment about his pitch framing deficiencies early on here on TD. And now, a bit ironically, we're all over the guy like a cheap suit.
  15. bird
    I'm curious about who he should have chosen instead. His other choices were Fryer, Herrmann, Rohlfing, and Pinto as I recall. And Pinto was not an option really. Because pitch framing :-)
  16. bird
    I agree with your last sentence, mike.
  17. bird
    No, you got it all wrong. Torii's going to give an honest answer when Sano pulls his baseball pants on and asks "does my butt look big in this?"
  18. bird
    I might be too old for GM. Might place a call to the Vatican about that pope gig.
  19. bird
    No it's not. I was fairly specific about why, in the instance I described, that Ryan knows better than you what to expect regarding the defense of both Arcia and Hunter. In this case, I believe Ryan and company see things that don't show up on your laptop. For example, Arcia's minor league outfield play over a few seasons. We disagree with Ryan all the time on TD. I disagree less often than you. Sometimes Ryan is right, and less often, you and I are right, in my opinion, but that doesn't qualify as an appeal to authority on my part, jimmer.
  20. bird
    I listened to the interview, and this might be a reasonable interpretation of what Ryan described.
  21. bird
    To be clear about what Ryan said: he knows that playing the wall caused Arcia trouble, and that Arcia then began to also struggle in all aspects of his outfield play, and seemed to lose confidence. So no, he wasn't saying the only problem was playing the wall.
  22. bird
    I agree with this, although I also subscribe to the viewpoint that Ryan probably undervalues OF defense. Which is different from subscribing to a viewpoint that Ryan doesn't RECOGNIZE good OF defense. There just aren't a ton of good and affordable two-way outfielders on the FA market in a given year. I think his thought with Willingham for example was his bat and his homers on a power-less team offset his poor defense, particularly if you think about what sells tickets. So I think the notion that he makes a choice like that because of an unfamiliarity or skepticism about metrics is off base. Like I've said before, I think Ryan has a better idea about what to expect from Arcia and Hunter than any of us sitting there staring at the screen on our laptop. I know, blasphemous words. I also don't get all the hand-wringing about such a temporary situation. Hunter is a stopgap, not a solution. The solution is some combination of Hicks, Buxton, Rosario, Arcia, and maybe Kepler in a year or so. So with Hunter one and done in a year in which most here are predicting about 74 wins, why such a fuss?
  23. bird
    Ryan and company knew exactly what they were getting with Suzuki, Correia, Stauffer, and Hunter, a thousand times better than any of us armed with our spreadsheets. There was no mob to quell, only a handful of commenters who can't be quelled, so why would he care more about appeasing those unappeasable people than making supportive (and defensive) comments about his players? The motive behind his comments aren't difficult to understand here. It takes a lot more effort to read so much into them in my view, and you're reading things into them that just aren't there, my friend.
  24. bird
    C'mon, jimmer, cut the man a little slack and remember these were off the cuff and clearly defensive (pun here) responses at a presser. Do you really in your heart of hearts think Ryan believes the OF defense was fine last year? Or that Hunter is suited to play CF this year? Of course he doesn't believe those things, and I wouldn't expect my boss to throw me under a bus at a public event either, so good for Terry for glossing over how crappy Arcia was, or Hunter was, last year at that presser. If you heard him this morning with Mackey, you heard a succinct and unadulterated appraisal of the inadequacies of both players' defense, and a sound explanation as to why he thinks both will perform better. Ryan has seen Arcia play outfield throughout his minor league career. He says Arcia played poorly last year and is capable of playing better based on his past. SO please forgive me for trusting Ryan's judgment on the subject rather than relying on a year's worth of questionable stats as both the gospel and as a projection of what to expect going forward.
  25. bird
    "Give them bread and circus."
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