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Zephrin

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Everything posted by Zephrin

  1. Zephrin
    Jorgenswest - I agree that neither Correia or Pelfrey are locks for rotation spots long-term this season, but I would be shocked if they don't both start the year in the rotation.
  2. Zephrin
    I agree with Brandon that Deduno will get an early shot, except I think it reasonably likely that Deduno starts the year on IR. I don't think Johnson and Gilmartin are really in the hunt - they are more of emergency backup plans in case the Twins do lose Worley and Diamond and Gibson/Meyer don't look ready.
  3. Zephrin
    Also, I don't think the Twins are afraid of pulling the plug on a failed starting pitcher, even if he is making a reasonable salary. We cut Livan and his $5 mil contract mid-season and we ate 1.5 years of Blackburn's $5 (or so) mil contract. If Correa or Pelfrey aren't getting it done and we have AAA guys that look ready to step in, I think they will make that call.
  4. Zephrin
    This is an instance where Terry Ryan is in a bit of a pickle. Not adding Pelfrey means he's banking on a lot of ifs - if Deduno's shoulder is healthy, if Gibson can figure it out, if Meyer is ready to make the leap, if Diamond or Worley can have a light come on. Suddenly he is criticized for trotting out AAAA pitching and not giving us a chance to win. Signing Pelfrey opens him up to criticism that he is arbitrarily not giving the "young guys" a chance. After three consecutive years of significantly underachieving in the pitching department, I would rather see TR hedge this direction than the other. Too much good pitching is a problem that TR will happily take as a problem come June.
  5. Zephrin
    I think this is reality unless we sign someone. The Twins aren't going to let Mauer catch at all now that he's switched, and Doumit is a terrible catcher. Better pray we sign Buck or someone to split time with Pinto.
  6. Zephrin
    I would guess Colabello. His AB potential plummeted between Mauer and Kubel. We still don't have tremendous CF depth until either Hicks proves he's here to stay or Buxton is ready, so Mastrianni probably has another life left in him.
  7. Zephrin
    Also, if it was basically between Pelfrey and Arroyo, I think the dollars and years makes more sense for Pelfrey. Let someone else pay Arroyo $8 mil for his age 40 season.
  8. Zephrin
    Just a couple points: 1. Yes, Pelfrey is a "lock" to start the season in the rotation - barring injury. But don't forget that the Twins literally ate Blackburn's $5.5 million contract last year, so I would argue that both Pelfrey and Correa will have to perform to keep their rotation slots if there are AAA guys banging down the door. (Nolasco and Hughes would seem to have a longer leash based on dollars and years.) 2. I think everyone would probably be more comfortable with Meyer starting in AAA, and Deduno will almost certainly be brought along slowly this spring. 3. Injuries and spot starts will almost assuredly mean the Twins will need 8ish starters at some point. Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Correa, Gibson, Meyer, Deduno, Worley, Diamond are a lot better depth options than we have had of late. 4. If we somehow get to June with a wealth of pitching, someone can be flipped at the deadline. Right now it is December and all we have is a more promising pile of eggs than we've had for a few years. Let's worry about counting chickens after they hatch.
  9. Zephrin
    LEN III just addressed this: And here's a Miguel Sano update. The slugging prospect was shut down early in winter ball season because of a strained right ulnar collateral ligament. But he's been examined in Fort Myers, Fla., and has been given a clean bill of health. He'll return to the Dominican Republic, where he'll resume throwing, then return to Fort Myers in January to train in advance of the 2014 season. Hopefully it really is behind him. When they let him play during Spring Training I'll breathe a sigh of relief.
  10. Zephrin
    The (relatively) long-term commitments we've made to Nolasco (4) and Hughes (3) make me question the need to give a contract to any other rotation stabilizer that goes more than one year. Frankly, Correa fills that role this year. At present, we have 2 spots available for 3 worthy candidates (Meyer, Gibson, Deduno), plus plenty of rotation filler (Diamond, Worley, Albers) if we run into trouble. Arroyo just adds to the glut of options we already have. Unless we are willing to go after someone with significant upside (Tanaka!), we should either stick to a 1 year contract or stand pat.
  11. Zephrin
    Arcia hit 24 in about 530 PAs last year between AAA and the Bigs. I don't see why he can't do that in a full season with the Twins next year. Next year will be the last year this decade that we don't have a player hit 30+. I like both Arcia and Sano to routinely hit 30+ once they establish themselves.
  12. Zephrin
    I've always thought this would be a Trade Deadline decision, and even with Rosario's suspension I don't see that changing. Rosario will still have 2 months to settle in and show what he can do at AAA before July 31st, and Dozier has 4 months to prove that his post-All-Star break growth wasn't just an anomaly.
  13. Zephrin
    I totally agree with this sentiment. You don't make a blockbuster deal unless you think it is the piece that takes you to the promised land. (especially for a team like the Twins that can't throw money around like the Yanks and Dodgers to make up for a dearth of cheap talent coming up from the minors.) Also, there is no scenario where the Twins get Price without at least one of Sano, Buxton or Meyer. I don't think a deal of Stewart, Rosario, Berrios and Thorpe would get it done. Honestly, the Twins are still in a position where I would rather they trade for more high ceiling minor league pitchers than for an established ace like price.
  14. Zephrin
    I think that depends on what people consider a "lost cause." There are an awful lot of young guys - Sano, Meyer, Gibson, Hicks, Arcia and possibly Buxton - that would have to come up and play with the consistency and maturity of vets to sniff at the playoffs. The reality is that at least some of those guys will have bumps in the road as they adjust to the league. I don't need this team to be in the playoff hunt in September for the season to be a success.
  15. Zephrin
    The difference to me is that Correia basically pitched to his ceiling last year for the money we gave him - which is a #5 innings eater type in a respectable rotation. $5 million is a lot to pay for a guy who is essentially a replacement level pitcher, which we can get for $500K (see Albers, Andrew; Diamond, Scott), and guaranteeing it for 2 years seemed asinine to me at the time and still does today. Hughes, on the other hand, has the stuff and peripherals of a #3 pitcher if he pulls it all together. $8 million per year is a steal if he pitches to that level (Remember, we just gave $12 million per year to Nolasco, who many view as a #4 in a decent rotation, and most agree got basically a market-value contract.) And while there is risk in the contract, Hughes floor (if healthy) is probably a decent relief pitcher. None of us want to pay $8 million per year to a non-closer in the bullpen, but many of the other pitchers on the market have a lot lower floors than that. So yes, in general I do feel better about the Hughes deal than I did (and do) feel about the Correia deal.
  16. Zephrin
    I like the Nolasco signing for a number of reasons, but perhaps the fact that I can envision him pitching in a playoff game at all is the thing that heartens me the most. However, I don't know that I would love him as the #3 starter for a playoff team, I prefer him as a #4. Here are the AL playoff pitchers who I would not start Nolasco over: Boston - Lester, Bucholz, Lackey TB - Price, Cobb, Moore, Archer Oak - Colon, Parker Det - Scherzer, Verlander, Sanchez, Fister Tex - Darvish, Holland, Ogando, Garza So based on this very un-scientific look, I would say that Nolasco does not make the playoff rotation for 3 of the 5 AL playoff teams last year, serves as the #4 for Boston (who did win the WS), and the #3 on the overachieving A's team. Asking Nolasco to be a #3 on a playoff rotation seems a bit of a stretch.
  17. Zephrin
    The key for me is that I can envision Nolasco pitching on a playoff roster - albeit probably as the #4 on a competitive playoff roster. I'm fairly certain I would not have been comfortable saying that about any of the other FA pitching signings these past few years. Hopefully some combination of Meyer, Gibson and Deduno can grow into playoff roster-caliber pitchers as well. Personally, I don't like the cost-to-upside ratio of the other FA pitchers. As much as I'd hate to see some of the promising prospects go, the best way to add another solid piece to a future playoff roster is probably via trade.
  18. Zephrin
    We definitely need to see how Rosario and Dozier perform this year - both doing well would be a good problem to have. To me, it seems like the best trades come out of positions of strength. I would probably rather trade one or the other at the deadline for a quality SP prospect - preferably AA or AAA, than convert Rosario back into an outfielder. Personally, I am more sold on Rosario's bat and ability to be an adequate 2B than I am on Dozier's ability to continue hitting. If Rosario looks like he is going to be able to take the next step, and Dozier can't move to SS, I would probably look to trade Dozier at the deadline.
  19. Zephrin
    Arcia already is the Twins second best hitter. Hopefully, by the end of the 2014 season we will be able to argue that he's only the 4th best hitter (behind Mauer, Sano and Buxton ) Arcia will probably be batting 3rd or 5th for the twins for the next several years. (and maybe 4th some until Sano settles in)
  20. Zephrin
    Gardenhire seems to value stability over matching up left vs. right. I'm not sure he would entertain switching people's spots in the batting order that much based on the handedness of the pitcher. Also, I don't think I've seen any indication the Twins are entertaining Dozier at SS. Is that a real possibility, or simply a creative way to get both Dozier and Rosario on the field together?
  21. Zephrin
    Mauer's body of work at C is both long enough and impressive enough to get him into the HOF even if he doesn't play another game anywhere. Unquestionably the best catcher in the game for the past decade. Yadi may get himself into the HOF as well, but it will be primarily as a defender and team leader, as his lifetime numbers aren't even close to Mauer's offensively. Posey will almost certainly switch positions - probably even earlier than Mauer. For me, it is really just a question of where he ranks all-time as a catcher. I think there are only like 13 HOF catchers, and he should be in that class. Where he won't get now is into that upper echelon with Bench and Berra, or even the 2nd tier with Ivan. It hurts his legacy, and he knows it. "Selfless" might not be the word I would choose, but it is definitely a sacrifice from a legacy standpoint.
  22. Zephrin
    I'm more sad from a legacy standpoint than a stats standpoint. Mauer could have gone down as a top 5 catcher all-time. Right up there with Berra and Bench. I think Mauer will be fine playing 1B. Maybe even all-star level. But he doesn't have a chance of being one of the greatest 1B of all time. As a lifelong Twins fan, I like to see our players remembered through the ages, and not just in Twins Territory.
  23. Zephrin
    Mauer has accrued WAR at approximately 4.4 per year for his career - I believe that puts him behind only Johnny Bench for catchers (pace, not overall). Is there someone on this board that can figure out what Mauer's WAR would have been as a 1B? (Or I guess we would have to make oWAR comparisons at C and 1B cause it probably isn't fair to factor in dWAR...)
  24. Zephrin
    Building off, Jay's sentiment - As a catcher he is a perennial all-star, and arguably the best at his position in the game. (instinct was super-star, but realistically he hasn't been at that level for a couple years.) His 2013 .880 OPS was about 50 points higher than the next catcher. Huge. There are 5 1B with .900+ OPS (ok, I'm cheating a bit 'cause Freeman was only .897, but all signs point to him still entering his prime.) He gets a 2014 All-Star invite because MN is hosting, but beyond that?
  25. Zephrin
    In my head, this makes sense. Emotionally, I'm feeling let down.
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