Zephrin

What is the likelihood that the Twins are in trade talks with other teams who have out of option players? Specifically, I would wonder about picking up a fringe CF that can legitimately back the position up in return for Diamond or Theilbar?

Hicks - Buxton - Arcia could be a very productive trio offensively and defensively. If someone else comes up and pushes Arcia to a DH so be it, but I won't lose sleep over that outfield.

I think Hicks and Arcia will both be better than last year and could be breakout guys. A september outfield of Hicks-Buxton-Arcia could be worth the price of admission.

I think Mauer Dozier and Arcia are all likely to be in the top 5. Unless a young pitcher breaks out (Gibson or Deduno perhaps?) I don't think any of the SP will exceed Perkins 2.1 from last year.

Nolasco hasn't exceeded 1.8 WAR since about 2008. For him to be in the top 5 this year he will either need to significantly beat his historic metrics or the team as a whole will have to be as bad or worse than it was last year.

As bad as the Twins pitching has been of late, an off-season where we have seemingly raised the floor is encouraging. Last year, Pedro Hernandez, Vance Worley, Cole de Vries, Liam Hendricks and PJ Walters combined to start 40 games. Walters 5.95 ERA was the best of the lot. This year's Twins should be able to shave at least a run off the ERA off those starts - and hopefully a bit more than that. That will be stabilizing for a still mediocre team as well as less taxing on what was already a decent bullpen. AL playoff teams gave up between 625 and 662 runs last year vs. the Twins 788. Our pitching isn't 125 runs better this year, so we do still need to raise the ceiling as well, but it is probably 50+ runs better.

Leaving Arcia in Florida would be a mistake, IMO.

Part of this might depend on when he makes The Show. I say that because the trend (and honestly, rightfully so) seems to be for these ultra-talents to seek the "security" payday now while being in position to hit the FA market before age 30. Let's say Buxton is up in September with the presumption that he's here to stay. I'd be shocked if his agent goes for more than 7-8 years, guaranteeing his freedom by 29. Delay his arrival, and the window to buy out FA years as part of the deal starts dwindling.

Beresford seems like it might be correct. Vargas, not so much.

http://i.ebayimg.com/t/Kennys-Vargas-Minnesota-Twins-FtMyers-Miracle-Game-Used-Autograph-Baseball-w-COA-/00/s/NzA4WDc1MA==/z/CjgAAOxyDLZSDESu/$(KGrHqR,!qgFHz2KvvNKBSDESuMsUw~~60_35.JPG

http://i.ebayimg.com/t/Minnesota-Twins-JAMES-BERESFORD-autographed-2009-Bowman-Chrome-/00/s/NzMyWDU0MQ==/$(KGrHqNHJBkE-gORnzvqBPsIuoV6Fw~~60_35.JPG

Baseball Prospectus has Sano at #14, so it seems like his "struggles" to adjust to AA pitching took a bit of shine off. Had he stayed in Ft. Meyers and continued mashing (not unreasonable at his age) he would probably be higher up this list, but less close to playing for the Twins.

The fact that Garza has a screw in his elbow, coupled with a fairly extensive injury history, should have scared most teams off a 4-year deal. I don't think he'll make 100 starts over the contract. That, coupled with the fact that Garza and the Twins don't really want to get back together for personality reasons makes me satisfied that he signed elsewhere, even for a reduced price.

In principle, I agree with this. However, what are we gonna have to trade to get Stassi or Sardinas? It doesn't seem like the Twins are interested in trading away from their 25 man roster at this point, because while in general they are leaning towards 2015 and beyond when the prospects are up and helping, they did go out and spend $80 on pitching to prevent another 65 win debacle. They will probably trade from the 25 man in June, but I doubt we see Plouffe, Parmelee or anyone else get moved before April 1st.

If the Cubs really made an offer in the $160 range it's time to get out of the pool. I get why a team would pay $18-20 per year. That's #2 money for a guy that you hope pitches more like a #1, as long as you are willing to gamble on a guy based on projections from Japan (and I get that many on this board a skeptical on that point.) $160 means the Cubs, even if they offered a 7 year contract, are in the $23-25 per year range, which is pretty close to #1 money. Where is the upside for the Cubs on that contract? Also, the "losing" teams in that sweepstakes could pay for 4 years each of Garza and Jimenez for that money (possibly less - especially after posting fee).

Which, coupled with the 1-2 punch of Buxton/Sano at the top, is why most people that aren't Houston homers think the Twins have the best farm in baseball right now.

1,700 would actually put him right in the midst of the current HoF catchers. Pudge's 2,844 is the all time leader for Cs, and only a handful have ever broken 2,000. The fact that we can even come up with scenarios where Mauer gets to 3,000 is remarkable.

Of the 13 Cs in the HoF, 9 of them did not hit 250 HRs. (and Mickey Cochrane, whom Mauer's game is most similar to, only hit 119.) I agree that Mauer is not a big power guy and will be unlikely to get over 250, but I don't see that as much of a prerequisite for a HoF catcher historically.

Mauer's current averages leave him in the following positions amongst catchers all time: BA .323 - 1st OBP .405 - 2nd SLG .468 - 9th OPS .873 - 3rd Also of note, assuming Piazza gets in, every catcher with any longevity at catcher with a .300 BA is in the HoF. Every. Single. One. I see very little reason he doesn't get into Cooperstown, whether it is 6 or 16 years from now.

None of our best prospects are up yet, and Sano is really the only one with much chance of starting his six year clock this season. We could take on this salary for 6-7 years and still be in position to pay the prospects that effectively develop - hopefully most of Sano, Buxton, Meyer and Rosario in the next wave. Getting a "proven commodity" like David Price would cost us more dollars and similar years, plus pull from our farm system. All for a guy who is already well into his prime (vs. Tanaka who is just about to enter it). If the Twins want to go big I would rather they risk it on Tanaka than Price/Jimenez/Garza/Santana.

If we could get him for "market value" I would probably be in favor. I certainly would be ok with a contract that is both longer and richer than Nolasco's at $12 million per year. 7/$120 for Tanaka appeals to me more than 4/$60+ for Garza, or trading for David Price for that matter (whom we almost certainly couldn't get without including Meyer in the package). My problem is that I don't think he would sign with the Twins for anything close to "market value." We would have to overpay big time to get him to sign, and that is a risk we can't afford.

I have a feeling that Garza, Santana and Jimenez will be on hold until February. The losers in Tanaka-palooza will come begging with bags of unused money. If any of their agents let them sign in the next month I would be surprised.

Now that Masahiro Tanaka has been posted under a system that essentially allows every interested MLB club to take a shot, what would it take for the Twins to land him? Initial parameters might be as follows: Floor: Yu Darvish's 6 year, $108 Million investment (~$52 post/$56 contract) Ceiling: Justin Verlander's 7 year, $180 Million Contract (No matter how much a team might like him, he's still not a proven MLB commodity.) Consensus seems to be that teams will be willing to pay Tanaka in contract at a similar rate that they would have previously paid for the total investment, so let's project the total investment to be something in the neighborhood of $140 million (7/$120 + $20 posting). Now for the real question: If the "desirable" teams are willing to offer around $20 million per season (up slightly from Darvish's $18 million total investment per season), how much more would the Twins have to pay to land him? I ask this because we just saw Cano make Seattle go, reportedly, an extra 3 years and $65 million to lure him away from the "desirable" New York Yankees. And let's face it, the Twins have lot of shortcomings: Limited Japanese culture/fanbase in M/SP Fewer "extras" such as advertising/endorsements (though it probably wouldn't limit his continued exposure in Japan) Not a "no income tax" State Not ready to win now (though perhaps he could be sold on potential?) Lack of team infrastructure to foster assimilation into the culture of the MLB game (whether it is the Twins fault or not, Nishi did not succeed in our system) All in all, I would expect the Twins to have to go more years or more dollars (or both). Perhaps 7/$175 (+ posting) would get it done? Or Maybe he would take security and go with 10/$180 (+ posting)? Either way, we're talking about a $200 million investment. Terry Ryan might be looking to change his stripes, but signing Tanaka might be more like changing from a zebra into a lion.

People are forgetting Buxton's role in all this. There is a pretty good chance that he is ready for a post-All-Star break callup, at which point our primary (and pretty good fielding) outfield should be Hicks/Buxton/Arcia. I would probably let the Hammer play left early this season and hope he plays more like 2012 than 2013. His trade in July makes room for Buxton. Pressley or Mastro serve as the 4th outfielder, with Kubel as the 5th/emergency OF. By summer, the combination of Plouffe, Parmelee and Colabello will be whittled down to a single bench bat/corner IF position. Probably Plouffe. Finding room in the OF for any of these guys is silly.

Ideally, I would like to see Gibson seize the opportunity in Spring Training for the #5 slot. Deduno will be added to the 25-man in some capacity once he eases his way back from injury - either as a starter for someone who falters, or as a reliever so they don't lose him. Meyer will be told the same thing Gibson was last year - go be consistent for 6-8 starts at AAA and we'll give you a shot. Hopefully that happens by early summer.