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cmathewson

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Everything posted by cmathewson

  1. Part of that is a 40-man roster issue. It will be a challenge finding room for Ramirez. It would be even harder to find room for Walters as well. If any of those guys starts slow, Walters is just a phone call away.
  2. I'd be happy with a 12-12 year, 200 innings and a 4 ERA. That was Blackburn in his first full year of starting.
  3. Guys develop at different rates. Some guys take longer to become major leaguers than others. Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer are two examples of guys who struggled when they first gt called up, and had to go back down to work on stuff. On the pitching side, Johan Santana took three years after his initial stint to develop into a quality pitcher. He only became a good starter after an extended stint in AAA. That's a common story. Hendriks is very young and has a very good minor league track record. His problems last year are well documented: He pitched much more tentatively in the majors then he had in the minors because he was afraid. When he got over that fear late in the year and started attacking the zone, he was fine. He should be a decent 4 or 5 guy for years to come.
  4. He's the first Rule 5 guy they've had since Santana with two plus pitches. Diamond's main strength is control, but his pitches are average. Pressly throws in the mid 90s with a wicked hook. He's a keeper.
  5. Both. They now have 12 pitchers. Though I'm not sure how long Robertston will hang around. AS soon as Swarzak is ready, they'll option Robertson.
  6. Wow. Who am I going to scream at this year? No Capps. No Burnett. How will I get my scream therapy?
  7. Why is hitting over .250 the bellwether for a decent shortstop? Omar Vizquel didn't manage to hit over .250 in eight of his 24 years, and he's a sure thing Hall of Famer. Only twice in his career did he have an OPS+ over 100, which is the water line for offensive players. Greg Gagne never had an OPS+ over 100, and he's considered the best Twins shortstop since Zoilo Versalles. Zoilo had a career average of .246. I'm not a fan of BA as a stat in general. But it's especially bad for shortstops. If he hits .220/.280/.320/600 I'd be thrilled with his performance, given his defense. Escobar might hit a little better, but he won't make as many outs in the field. With this line-up and pitching staff, that's more important this year.
  8. He hasn't had many 0-fers. He's hit a few doubles. But most of his hits are singles. I'd have to look at the Gameday archives to see off of whom he got his hits. Many of them were off of minor leaguers, I'm sure.
  9. I wouldn't put Diamond's or Deduno's injuries in the same class with Baker's torn UCL or Pavano's bruised labrum. In the case of Diamond, we're talking bout a two-week stay on the DL, tops. Deduno should have a shorter layoff. By May, they'll both be 100%. You could not say that about Baker or Pavano last year.
  10. Thanks for this. Good to hear live reports from behind the fences in FM. Concerned about the last bullpen spot. Robertson looks hurt or something. Burnett looks like, well, Burnett, who has always been way too hittable for my taste. On the plus side, it won't be long before Swarzak is back and both Robertson and Burnett will be in AAA. If that is the biggest problem we face, it's all good.
  11. The one difference between keeping Hicks and spending on free agency is abstraction. Free agents we didn't sign are always abstract. Most of the dealing happens behind a veil of secrecy. The veterans on the team don't know if we offered contracts to those players, let alone what we offered. They can take issue with a lack of moves that were made in abstract, but they can't take issue with specific moves that were not made, because they simply don't know what went on behind closed doors. Signing players is not entirely up to the team that makes the offer. Players go to teams they think have a good chance to win, are closer to home, and a dozen other reasons that favor one team over another, all things considered. On the other hand, whether you keep Hicks or a lesser player to start the season is a concrete thing. Unlike free agency, it's entirely up to the GM who ends up on the roster at the end of spring training. Also, the veterans know a lot more about the possibilities than they do about hypothetical free agent signings. Not only do the veterans have a good sense of who Hicks is, they've seen him play almost everyday for the past month. They can't help but emerge impressed and desirous to have him on their team. At that point, to arbitrarily hold him back would be a slap in their faces.
  12. The good news is it hit the palm and pinkie, not the back side of the hand. The way that ball was hit, it would have broken his hand if it had hit the back of his hand.
  13. Have you seen this kid? He's the best prospect the Twins have had since Mauer. Morneau and Kubel were good prospects, but they do not play a premium position. He's better than Span or Revere by a long shot. At this stage in his career, he's better than Hunter was at the same age. He's made some plays this spring that I doubt Hunter would have made. Today he caught a liner in the gap that shocked everyone, including Riemhold, who was playing half way between second and third after hitting a double. After making the catch, Hicks easily nailed him at second for a double play. As far as his hitting, it's been amazing to watch. When he's hot, he pulls the ball hard. When he's slumping, he just takes the ball the other way. He's been slumping the last week or so. In that time, he's had a 4-4 day and two 3-5 days without an 0-fer. His approach is just amazing for a player his age. I know it's spring training, but he's actually playing better now than earlier in camp, now that he doesn't have to worry about making the team. He's relaxed and doing his thing, against mostly major league competition at this point. Has he earned it? If any player in the last 10 years has earned it, Hicks has. Will this last into the season? Probably not at this level. No one expects him to have a 1.000 OPS. But I would bet he has a better year than Span did last year.
  14. I disagree. Deduno will be knocking on the door in April. Gibson will be knocking on the door in May .Meyers will be knocking on the door in August. Of the pitchers in camp this year, Correia is eighth on my list as far as the likelihood of success in the AL. I would put these pitchers ahead of him: Worley Diamond Pelfrey Handriks Devries Deduno Gibson Meyers
  15. I have to say I disagree with Aaron on the service time issue. He uses the Rays as a model franchise when it comes to holding players back. I think it has handcuffed them year after year. If I were a Rays fan, I would be pissed they're not bringing their top prospect up to start the year, especially in that division. Games in April mean the same as games in September.
  16. The key phrases are "for the right price". None of those guys were available for anything less than two top 10 organizational prospects. You want to give up Arcia and Rosario? Be my guest. I'll take my chances on the guys we have until Santana and Rosario are ready, rather than get expensive, aging guys who might not fill the bill. It's easy to say we should have traded for players who never got traded to the 29 other teams. Even in cases where a guy we liked got traded, say James Shields, the price was way too high (the Rays said Sano or goodbye).
  17. More likely if Correia sucks as bad as Blackburn did last year, he'll be DFAed after 19 starts. I doubt he'll end up in the bullpen. The worst case scenario is he pitches just good enough to hold down a rotation spot all year, but not good enough to win more than five games. In that case, he could be a 20-game loser. I project him better than that, but he sure has not given us much reason for optimism this spring.
  18. I think he's not paying attention. Ramirez is a good bat, but he's a horrible glove. Parmelee is no gold glover, but he's much better than Ramirez. And his bat is on par. Mastro will be there in the late innings, maybe pinch running for Parm in the eighth, and playing outfield closer in the ninth. The Hammer as DH story makes more sense, especially against lefties.
  19. I'm saying you can't really complain about Correia if, by signing him, they stop Gibson's clock. Look up Replacement Level Pitcher in the dictionary and you get a picture of Correia. He's the kind of guy you sign when you want to give your young guys more time to develop (or you want cost control). He's like and expensive version of Brandon Boggs. By your logic, the Twins should have kept Brandon Boggs and sent Hicks down until June. If that's your logic, you can't really complain about Correia, except the expense. Personally, I don't care about the expense, considering that the team is under budget and it was the going rate. Anyway, you can complain that Ryan doesn't care about cost control. But it's not going to do any good. All he cares about is whether a player is ready or not. Hicks is ready. Gibson is not. The fact that one is cost controlled at this point and the other is not is irrelevant for the Twins FO. Get used to it. Personally, I agree with the Twins. The new stadium enables the team to spend what it takes to win, realizing that paying a guy a little more than you might otherwise need to in his early years is still a lot cheaper than paying free agents.
  20. Everyone was pleased with the two trades TR made this offseason. Most people were pleased with the fringe signings (Pelfrey, Harden, etc.) Most people HATE the Correia signing. Most people are skeptical of standing pat in the middle infield. Given those facts, I don't understand how the overall offseason can be characterized as "bull****". To be sure, it was a mixed bag. But it was not without some quality. The fact that he signed Correia instead of, say, McCarthy doesn't make an otherwise decent offseason into total bull****. One starter, in the scheme of things, is not that big of a deal. Consider Nick Blackburn. He sucked last year, and was DFAed in May, despite the fact that he was owed $10 million for 2012-13. His pitching resulted in a -.5 WAR. I doubt Correia sucks as bad as Blackburn, but even if he does, he will not have that big of an impact on the team. He'll be gone in May and someone else (Deduno or Gibson, probably) will take his place. Why is that one signing viewed with such hostility considering its limited downside? Say we keep Hicks down until mid-May and his replacement posts a -.5 WAR relative to what he could provide over that time. Most people who argue for Hicks to stay down until May in favor of some lesser player are basically saying we should automatically take at least as much downside as Correia will provide, supposing he sucks as bad as Nick Blackburn did last year. These same people are crying foul because we are playing Corriea instead of Deduno or Gibson (who are in a similar position as Hicks re: service time). It seems like an internal inconsistency to me.
  21. 1. Hicks will be in the top 3 in votes for ROY 2. Mauer will be MVP 3. Dozier and Florimon will catch enough balls to stay the regulars up the middle all year 4. Escobar will play well and often at both SS and 2B 5. Neither Correia nor Worely will finish he season in the rotation 6. Alex Meyer will be in the rotation in August
  22. I think last year was his best year as manager. After his entire rotation disintegrated, he still managed to have some success in the middle three months, before falling off in September. Leyland thought he deserved votes for manager of the year, as strange as that sounds. I mostly don't buy Rosenthal's premise that we'll lose 90 games again. There is almost no chance the rotation will be as bad as it was last year. Even if the top 3 starters have ERAs in the 5's in Mid May, it will be better than last year. Meanwhile, the offense (mostly at 3, 5 and 9) and defense (2, 4, 6, and 8) should be better.
  23. That's right. Also, he routinely swaps out Morneau and Willingham depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher. I suspect he'll do the same thing with Parmelee and Plouffe this year, while keeping Doumit int he 6 spot. I think he has learned something over the last several years. Namely, guys don't have to be veterans to warrant being everyday players. He's been better at letting the young kids play and tolerating their idiosyncrasies. What we remember from his early years is not likely to reoccur.
  24. I think Gardy has done that. Or, at least he's sat guys for no apparent reason. If you followed the careers of Cuddyer and Kubel, for example, you might agree with me. For the first three or four years of their careers, they were never given an opportunity to get into a good groove. Cuddyer would just start to break out of a slump, maybe hitting in three games in a row or going 2-3 two games in a row, and Gardy would sit him for a couple of games. It used to be a joke over at TwinkieTown when Kubel would go 4-4 that he was hitting the bench the next day. And we're not talking about one day off. We're talking about multiple, butt-numbing days off in a row while lesser, scrappier players got an extended look. I get that regulars need about a day off a week, especially as the season wears on. And bench guys need to play at least once a week to stay fresh. But that's not Gardy's style. If a bench guy has a 2-4 day, he'll play him the next day. If he gets on a roll, he could play him three days in a row. Now you're regular is wondering what he did to deserve the benching. If a player was not a "veteran," meaning he had less than 1000 at bats, he rarely got the chance to play a whole week of games without an off day--even in the first few weks of the season when guys are fresh. There were exceptions. Morneau, for example. But especially in the middle infield, it has been a revolving door, in part because he benches guys so much. That's just my impression. And maybe he's learned a thing or two over the years. But it sure seems like he uses his bench more like a basketball coach than a baseball manager. And that's not conducive for most hitters to succeed. To my knowledge, he's the only manager who does it this way.
  25. I wonder if a Drew trade is in the works. It seems like a huge luxury for a rebuilding team to have so many catchers. By my count, the Twins have three in AAA and four in AA, not counting Kvasnicka, who should be assigned to AA, but probably will end up in Fort Myers.
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