cmathewson

Good points. According to Gardy, he is glacial to home plate (1.8 seconds). So he's got some work to do.

I was just going off of the annual IL awards, including top reliever, which he has received two years in a row. I think the coaches vote on this. Slama has better numbers, I will grant you. But for whatever reason, the coaches have preferred Wood. And that is reflected in their respective contracts. Slama was available to the highest bidder as a sixth-year guy and had to sign a minor league deal with the Twins for the minor league minimum. Wood signed a one-way major league contract for more than the major league minimum. If they try to pass him through waivers, he'll get claimed.

Wood was the best reliever in the IL the last two years. I don't think he compares to Hughes or Gray. I could be wrong, but early reports say he is highly regarded because he throws VERY HARD.

This year, that's a big reason. In my eyes, this much is set: Perkins Burton Duensing Fien Leaving three spots for: Burnett Swarzak Robertson Roenicke Pressly Wood Perez Harden These guys are gone if we don't keep them Roenicke Wood Pressly Swarzak I can see them them trying to make a trade with Pressly. But I can't see them giving up on Roenicke, Wood or Swarzak if they can avoid it. If they keep those three, that means Burnett, Robertson, Perez and Harden go down. If they want to keep any of those guys, Swarzak has to pass through waivers. Even if they risk that, I can see Gardy wanting two situational lefties. The more I think of it, the more I think they option Burnett out to start the season.

Offensively, they might be comparable. But defensively, Hicks is the far better player.

The Twins are coming off consecutive 90+ loss seasons. Ticket sales are luke warm at best. They need to get off to a good start. It makes no sense to come north with anything less than their best roster.

Good work. It will be interesting to see what happens when Diamond is ready. Probably Hendriks goes down until Gibson runs out of innings. But what if Hendriks, Gibson, Worely and Pelfrey shine, Correia tanks and Diamond is ready?

No risk. Maybe he finds some of the stuff he had in the minors when he had K rates over 9. Worst case, he'll eat innings in the high minors while guys like Solliman and Salcedo prove they are ready for promotion.

Really? No Kepler? No Polanco? No Harrison? Those three all rank higher than Santana and Ortiz in my book.

I'm with you. I have Polanco knocking on the door (12th). But Goodrum is a low 20s prospect at best. He needs to make more contact. That said, I don't like to give up on guys with his tools. Everybody matures at different rates. Sometimes guys struggle in their teens and put it together in their early 20s. With his tools, he could get into the top 15 with a good year at Cedar Rapids.

The beat writers reported what they saw with their own eyes yesterday. They saw a guy who threw 90 pitches at full speed (mid 90s FB, high 70s change, no sliders). He's throwing 90 pitches every other day. His arm might fall off between now and the end of spring training. A meteor might land on his head before the end of spring. But as it sits right now, he has more strength and stamina of any pitcher in camp. There is no good reason to believe he will not be ready for starting duty on April 1.

Great points Seth. This is what I've been trying to say. We need to distinguish between the theory of the CBA and the practice of managing a roster in relationship to it. In practice, I can count on one finger the times the Twins apparently took an inferior player north to save service time (Bartlett). It was nearly disastrous. They will likely take the best 25 guys north and let the contract issues take care of themselves. Service time might be used to break ties, however. If Mastroianni and Hicks are equal coming out of spring training, they'll go north with the Maestro. This is the way they seem to be leaning right now, because Gardy loves Maestro and doesn't want to put too much pressure on Hicks. But if Hicks is clearly the better player, he will go north, with Maestro as the fourth outfielder. I might be alone on this board in arguing that Hicks is clearly the better player right now. I base my opinion as much on OBP skills as range in the outfield. With Willingham and Parmalee on the corners, they need an above-average center fielder. Maestro is average at best. Benson is the wild card. If they send Hicks down, Benson becomes the fourth outfielder. This might not be in his best interests, considering the year he had last year. He needs to play everyday (as does Hicks). Maestro is a good bench player and not the future center fielder. Long term it makes sense to have Hicks and Benson starting in center field in Minnesota and Rochester. Between Benson and Hicks, Hicks is the clear favorite right now, especially since they need an OBP guy at the top of the order, not a free-swinging power hitter.

I rest my case. It's way too early to worry about arbitration years. When was the last time the Twins even let a good player get more than a couple years into arbitration? They bought out most if not all of Koskie's, Guzman's, Hunter's, Mauer's, Morneau's, and Span's arbitration years. They traded Pierzingski, Mientkievizc, and Revere before it was an issue. If Hicks is anything like the player we expect, he'll never make it to arbitration with the Twins. They'll sign him to a long-term deal the first year he's eligible. That's why I was focused on the Super two status. If they can at least prevent him from becoming a Super Two, they can delay the long-term deal by a year.

I was under the impression it was early June to be on the safe side (85 days prior to September). If he happens to be in a class with relatively few rookies, he could land on the Super Two list if he's called up in early May.

I hadn't heard the report that Berrios has been an "erratic mess at times." With admittedly small samples, his numbers sure don't suggest that (1.9 BB/9). And all scouting reports I have read say he has surprising command for an 18 year old.

I don't know how accurate the reports were, but when he was healthy at the end of his first season in Fort Myers, he was rumored to be throwing much harder than he did in college, more like sitting at 93 and touching 95. We don't have a lot to go on because he was the pitcher you describe at OSU. But those Friday/Sunday pitchers don't give maximum effort to save their arms, so college scouting reports aren't always what we see when the guy gets to the pros. Then again, he only had six healthy starts since being drafted. And perhaps throwing harder than he had been in college contributed to his injury. Anyway, it will be interesting to see. When he was healthy in Fort Myers, he was lights out, even better than Gibson had been the year before.

I think Wimmers' control issues were related to the elbow. Ligaments don't tear all at once. They fray and gradually tear completely. The Twins medical staff acknowledged that he had a partial tear at the end of 2011, but refused to do the surgery until it completely tore in July of 2012. WImmers is just one of several Twins pitchers who delayed their TJ surgery on the advice of the medical staff, and to the organizations' detriment. Hopefully, he can be ready to contribute in 2014, 'cause he has the stuff and control to do it when healthy.

Nice list. Here's hoping at least three of them bounce back.

I would agree that he's not ready if we had a viable veteran we could slot in until he is. I said the same thing in 2004 with Mauer. But there were no options then either. Mastroiani has started a total of seven games in center field in his career. He's a utility/fourth outfielder who hasn't started for long stretches at any one position in the last few years, not even in the minors. Joe Benson is behind Hicks in development, particularly strike zone judgement, especially after last year, in which he played sparingly and not well. He needs time to get his swing back before he is even a legit candidate. At that point, he'll be competition for Mastroiani more than Hicks, as Benson can play all three outfield positions and Hicks is a pure center fielder. As always, this will be about who is most ready to take the job and play every day. Hicks is most ready to take the everyday job, imho, sspecially with the need for a lead-off guy. Mastroiani is a bottom-of-the-order hitter. Benson is a guy you slot in seventh or so, where his power can do more damage and his limited OBP skills won't hurt so much. They might try to send Hicks down because of service time, but they will not even get into May before they realize the error in their ways and call him up. When Willingham and Morneau are 1-2 in the league in solo homers, the player with the best OBP potential will get the job for good.

Shocked that the two guys Ryan has penciled in for SS and CF are not even 75% chances. I would say Florimon is close to 90%. He was the starting SS for the last two months last year after all. Nothing has changed since then. And I'd say it's Hicks' job to lose. Consider how they handled Mauer after trading Pierzinski. That is exactly Hick's situation now. He'd have to show some serious flaws to be sent down, imho.

I'm not arguing that the extra year is not good to have. But it's relatively minor when compared to his development. And, as some have said, it's way to early to be counting arbitration years on a guy who hasn't played an inning at the majors. If I'm the Twins, I want him working with the major league staff and learning major league pitchers right away, if he doesn't have obvious stuff to work on. A two-month stint at AAA won't hurt him that much (it's not without risks, think Cuddyer), but I believe he'll develop faster at the majors. And that really is the key. The extra year means nothing if he washes out because we didn't handle him right. I also think the Twins need to get off to a good start, and should take the best guy north for that reason. He's the only lead-off guy of the three vying for the job. If winning is at all important, Hicks is the clear choice.

In the scheme of things, an extra year of team control is no big deal. By the time it becomes an issue, he'll be trade bait to make room for Buxton.

It wasn't rotator cuff surgery, so I think there's a better than 4% chance. I'd say it's as good as any of the other non-roster invitees.

Then he hits the 130 inning peak and is shut down in August, using up most of his inning in AAA and not progressing like he needs to. Think of Santana as a model fo a guy who transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation. It's not that difficult.

I agree with this. Guys with this upside need some patience. Think of Hunter and Span. Neither had the career at this point that Hicks has had. Warts and all. It's no exaggeration to say that the presence of Aaron hicks gave the Twins the confidence to trade two center fielders in one offseason. That's the best endorsement you can make.