cmathewson

I must confess I don't get this. You seem to be saying that his walk rate went up even though his walks-per-innings-pitched went down. As far as I can tell, the only way to make sense of that statement is to say his walk rate went down in a smaller sample of innings than his previously higher walk rate. I don't see how that's helpful. Our judgement of him should not be deprecated because the season ended before he had a chance to put up an even number of innings after the adjustment as before. Either way, we are dealing with small samples, and it's really hard to project such an unpredictable player with such small samples. All I know is, since the adjustment, and including his winter ball and WBC innings, his walk rate is in the area where he can be successful with such a low BA against. Relative to the current competition (Cole DeVries, who walks hardly anyone but gives up a lot of hits) his WHIP should be lower, giving him a better chance at success.

Great call. I've been a fan of the beer since they had a brewery on University and I'd go there for tours. I am something of a beer common sewer, having sampled the local product across the country. I can say Summit has the best line-up of offerings east of the Rockies. The only weakness is the IPA, which does not have enough Cascade hops for my taste. But they now have Saga, a hoppier IPA. Between that, the EPA and the Oatmeal Stout, I have no need to drink anything else.

Looking at the raw data from last year is only partly helpful. I'd like to see the trend line. When he came up, he was walking five, six guys a game and pitching five, six innings a start. He did that for about a month and Anderson got him to make some adjustments. Most notably, he had the catcher sit down the middle and Deduno would throw it at the mit and the ball would move over the corner for a strike. Prior to that, he would try to hit the corner and it would move off the plate. Consequently, he was only throwing his fastball for strikes once every fourth or fifth time. Hence all the 3-0 counts. But late in the year, he was throwing strikes with his fastball and guys started swinging early in the count. When they did, they hit weak grounders. When they didn't he finished them off with the slider. Slowly, the walk rate lowered. By the end of the year, he was walking something like 3/9. Meanwhile, his BA against was under .200. He carried that over into winter ball and dominated. Now he's keeping it going in the WBC. The big test will be tomorrow, when he starts against a USA line-up that could beat most all-star teams. Because he's been away from camp, we've kind of forgotten about him. But with Hendriks and Gibson struggling, he could make this team with a strong showing tomorrow.

I think Deduno has a shot at the rotation if they decide to send Gibson down to start the year. He's pitched very well really since mid-August. He's the only guy on the list of options who has electric stuff, and he seems to have turned a corner with his control.

I have not seen that problem. But I have a new problem. When I try to post a quick rely, it tells me I don't have enough characters. No matter how many characters I add, it says I need "at least 3 more". I have not been able to comment because of this.

I don't think anyone is terribly happy with Florimon. But the alternative is Escobar, who might hit a bit better but will not have as much range. It certainly the weakest position on the team. But if either can catch the ball, that they can't hit well out of the number 9 spot is not going to lose the Twins many games . I would be pleased with a .600+ OPS out of that spot in the line-up.

Rene Tosoni, freedom fighter.

One thing I noticed about this projected roster. Gardy has repeatedly said that he is going to have one real hitter on his bench, hinting at trying to sign Jim Thome. He's also said he's not wedded to keeping three catchers. So I expect him to go north with two catchers and one hitter not on the 40-man roster. Besides Thome, who remains an outside shot, Boggs, Ramirez, Colabello and Clement are possibilities. Clement has struggled some. The other three are in a virtual dead heat half way through camp. Any one of them could end up with that 25th man designation.

Those four states were taken directly from a thread yesterday. I'm glad you're not down on Hicks. Several people were. Those who weren't emphasized the need to send him down to stop his clock for another year. Only a couple of people in a 145-comment thread thought he should come north.

This is as good a projection as any right now. I think you can pretty near turn those black names red. The only one I'm not sure about is Burnett. He's had a horrible spring and Gardy might want a situational lefty. Problem is, neither Robertson nor Thielbar has pitched particularly well either. But if Robertson puts together a handful of good outings at the close of spring, I look for him to go north instead of Burnett.

I think this board and the Strib board are not representative of the heart of Twins fans. More like fringe groups on either end of one rug. The Strib board haters don't pay close attention to the team, but they have their "big money" hatred. If the team gets a new stadium, they should win it all every year. Anything less is a crime against the taxpayers. And Mauer is the chief perpetrator. The other fringe, which I see on this board quite a bit, are people who don't pay close attention to the team, but think they can get everything they need to know from Fangraphs. They ignore trends and improvement, and find whatever negative stat they can to show how player X will suck this year. Then they multiply it out over the whole team and a 65-win team is born. Unfortunately, we have the silent majority that makes up most of the rug, those who are routinely called cool-aid drinkers on this board. Folks like you and me are naturally optimistic, want to root for the team and not against it, and look for reasons to be optimistic. For example, Aaron Hicks. We've had a long and ugly discussion about him in several places on this board. But only one poster had the courage to show her enthusiasm at what she sees: a star in the making--a quieter, switch hitting Torii Hunter with patience. The moment she posted it, there were a bunch of haters saying a) The Twins would be idiots to keep him in April because of salary and team control issues down the road he's not ready because he strikes out to much or whatever, c) he's had a couple of bad years in the minors so he's obviously not as good as the experts claim, or d) unlike all you optimists, I saw him play once and he went 0-4 with three strikeouts. All the haters miss a crucial fact: The other candidates are either not ready (Benson) or not regulars (Mastroiani). So let's just accept the fact that he's the best player available right now and will likely win the job. And why not get excited about a BA top 100 prospect entering his rookie season? What is wrong with enjoying the thought of that? The haters equate being negative to being critical. And somehow, if you're not critical, you're an idiot. News flash, you can be critical and still be positive. You can say Hicks has work to do on his outfield throws and still say he's an exciting player. You can pick apart his game and still say he's as good as Span right now and has much higher upside. That's the fun of being a fan. No player is perfect. All players fail two thirds of the time. But are they good enough to help the team win over the long season? If so, and you can provide good reasons why, stating them doesn't make you an idiot. It makes you smarter than the haters who paint in black and white, and mostly black.

Hicks today: 4-5, 4 runs, 6 RBI, 3 HRs, SB. He now has five homers in his last nine at bats.

It beats having the below replacement level Butera as the fourth bench player. WIlkin Ramirez might still beat Boggs out, but they can sure do worse off the bench. All Gardy wants is a better hitter than Florimon for pinch hitting late in games. That, BTW, is why they'll keep both Carroll and Escobar.

I'm sick of this argument. Hicks is the best player of the three by a long shot. He will win the job. They might send Gibson down for a month. They might not. It's entirely dependent on how he pitches in March. I don't think they really care about service time. They've only been shown to do that once in the last decade. I don't think they're idiots because they a) take the best players north every year and sign them to long-term deals before arbitration. The A's and Indians also do this, and nobody calls them idiots. The way the Twins handle it, they make service time a non-issue, except for fringe players, who don't make a hill of beans in contract negotiations anyway. Hicks and Gibson are not fringe. Like Span and Baker before them, they will get long-term deals after their second season in the majors nullifying arbitration and team control issues.

Benson has an option remaining. He was added to the 40-man roster before the 2011 season, and optioned out that year and in 2012.

The twins are looking to replace Denard Span in CF. There are three candidates: Mastroiani, Hicks and Benson. The fact that Benson cannot hit leadoff will hinder his chances of making the team. You might think this isn't fair to him, but when you look at the other people in this order who can hit a little (Mauer, Morneau, Plouffe Parmelee and Doumit), it makes sens that the CF has to lead off. If we had a shortstop or second baseman who could lead-off, Benson might make more sense as a number 8 hitter. But we don't. And we do have a natural leadoff hitter in the CF competition (Hicks). Benson (or Mastorianni) hitting lead off in spring games is just a way to show everybody who the leader of the competition is (Hicks). It is clear to all the scribes that the Twins want Hicks to replace Span and are giving the others opportunities to compete in order to motivate them.

I question the assumption that 2013 is "designated as a lost cause". Terry Ryan does tend to take the long view, but that does not mean he doesn't care about this year. Gardy's job is on the line, and Ryan has put himself in a similar hot seat, by taking responsibility for the teams success in 2013. They don't just want to win, they expect to win. How realistic they are is perhaps another matter. On that note, I don't share most of the pessimism about this team. Last year, the team got off to a very slow start as all the starters either got hurt or faltered. None of those starters is around, but they've been replaced with better ones. This team was in the top five in the league in scoring runs, and all but one of those bats are back. I'm not saying the team will contend, but they will surprise some people. If you're paying attention to spring training, Hicks is the frontrunner to go north with the team. And he's expanding his lead, with Mastroiani's hamstring and Benson's rust. At this point, I'd be surprised if he goes to AAA. Gibson has to earn a spot, but he has been the most impressive among those competing for the fifth spot. And why waste his limited innings in AAA? Also, Ryan has more recently said he does not want Gibson to be a reliever. Medlen had a lot of relief experience prior to last year. Gibson is a starter and only a starter, according to Ryan. All of this is evident if you read Phil Miller's blog on the Strib site.

I'm not a fan of posting bald numbers without looking at trends. DeVries fooled some hitters early, but as AL hitters learned his ways, he started getting hit pretty hard. On the other hand, Hendriks was starstruck early and only really pitched well in the last of three stints in the majors last year. When he did, he was clearly better than DeVries. The trends indicate that Hendriks is on his way up and DeVries is on his way down. I wouldn't pay too close of attention to the small samples we have of their major league careers.

On Benson, he's probably the best player to take the spot previously used by a third catcher, but he needs to play everyday. So we go to Boggs, or Ramirez, or Clement, or Colabello; all of whom would be preferable to Thome. Herrman is another option, but, like Benson, he needs to play everyday and be ready in case of injury.

On Thome, I don't think he has anything left. Even in 2010, he would have had limited value if Morneau had stayed healthy. There's a reason he's bounced around since. At this point, his deficiencies outweigh his benefits.

It's not a forgone conclusion. Gardy also praised Escobar recently, saying second base is his best position and he would be comfortable with him there everyday. The difference is, Dozier can hit, if he just calms down and lets his natural ability shine through. The Twins want him to be able to handle not only second base but the second spot in the order, so they can have a 3-8 of Mauer, Willignham, Morneau, Doumit, Plouffe and Parmakee. Dozier is the only guy who has a chance at that. If he is anywhere close to Escobar with the glove, he comes north as the second baseman.

Well, he has elite power, which has been sapped by his recurring knee injuries. The theory is, once he has a healthy back leg, he'll start showing the power again.

None of these guys is a defensive wiz. But he's the best defender of any of the internal candidates. The primary role is pinch hitter.

I doubt they get him. Rumor has it he is demanding a major league contract. The Twins have offered him a minor league contract with a chance to make the team. At this point, it's a game of chicken. He would have to swallow his pride to come here. I don't think he will. There are four internal candidates: two outfielders (Wilkin Ramirez and Brandon Boggs) and two first basemen (Jeff Clement and Chris Colabello). All are having good camps. None are on the 40 man roster, but there will be roster spots at the end of camp. If I had to handicap it, I'd go like this: Boggs (30%) Because he can play all three outfield positions and he's a switch hitter with power and speed, and major league expereince Ramirez (25%) Because he had a great last two months last year and he's hitting well this spring Clement (20%) Because he has the most upside Colabello (15%) Because he's having the best spring at the plate of any of them, but is limited in other ways Thome (10%) See above

Yes the Twins typically extend players long before they are eligible for free agency and sometimes before they are elligible for arbitration. But it seems to have hurt them financially in the case of Mauer at least, and some others as well. Because Mauer hurt his knee on the major league roster, he ended up spending most of that year on the major league DL, accruing service time and pushing the date of his first long-term deal up by a year. In an age where they were scraping by on the meager earnings Bill Lester (MSPC Czar) let them have, that meant hard choices elsewhere. The most obvious case of this is Nick Blackburn. He had two good years with the Twins between 08 and 09, after which they signed him to a four-year contract rather than wait until he was eligible for arbitration, which always drives up the price of any long-term deal. . If they had kept him in AAA for a month in 2008, they could have waited a year to do the long-term deal without looming arbitration to drive up his price. As it happens, he pitched badly in 2010 throughout his contract, largely the result of lingering elbow issues. And it continues to cost the Twins $5.5 million, despite almost zero chance he makes a contribution in 2013. It is one of the worst contracts in Twins history (almost as bad as the Joe Mays deal). Arguably, they would have avoided it altogether if they had just waited a month to give him a shot.