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Physics Guy

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Everything posted by Physics Guy

  1. Physics Guy
    This year is not the time only if we don't make any changes. I don't want to wait to start winning until the young guns come up. I would rather we have a "winning" team when they come up. I don't think we are that far from being a .500 team or better. Adding a SP to the front end of the rotation would do much to get us on the right track, whether it be a trade for a guy like Gio or signing one of the top 3 FA. If you look at the BRef site, the entire group of starters were at .700 OPS or better. Our offense is on the right track. Now we just need to improve the pitching and possibly OF defense.
  2. Physics Guy
    Agree that Escobar really doesn't deserve to lose a starting spot, but this sort of thing happens. I still believe Hicks has a higher ceiling than Escobar (but also a lower floor) and I think the defense with Hicks in CF and Santana at SS is better than Santana in CF and Esco at SS. Plus having Esco as the utility IF makes us stronger defensively. I could very easily see either scenario happening in April. I think the 10th starter role is a great spot for him.
  3. Physics Guy
    Back to trading for Gio. Assuming they would want a 2B for Gio, what do people think about trading Dozier for him? I'd hate to trade him, but with Escobar as a stopgap and Polanco not to far off it might be palatable. I'd rather see a package built around Escobar, but not sure that would interest the Nats. How about Escobar, Kepler and Thorpe for Gio.
  4. Physics Guy
    They moved him to 2B because Danny Espinosa has become a brutal hitter and Zimmerman was blocking him at 3B. I think they now realize that Zimmerman can't handle 3B physically. My guess is they let LaRoche go and put Zimmerman at 1B.
  5. Physics Guy
    I also would like them to get Gio, but they really don't need a 3B. Rendon will be playing 3B for them for awhile. 2B is their biggest weakness. Gio has been one of the targets I like, but I'm not sure how we come up with a package they would go for without trading Dozier. I'm not sure Escobar and prospects is enough.
  6. Physics Guy
    1.5 x 100 total or 1.5x 20M/yr? I can see the $150, not the $30M.
  7. Physics Guy
    Yep, misread what you wrote. He struggled more as a lefthanded hitter, which would be against RHP. He should sit against the better RHP. The problem is we don't really have a good LHB to sub in for him. It's too bad Hicks has the same platoon problem that Esco has. Otherwise maybe a Santana at CF/SS and Esco/Hicks platoon would be a short-term answer. The problem is, I wouldn't want someboy regularly switching off between SS and CF. Doesn't seem too great for development. Since you mentioned it for Escobar, I looked up some numbers for a few other pertinent players. Santana was good from both sides of the plate, although slightly better as a lefty. Escobar was much better as a righty. Plouffe has improved his platoon splits and is no longer a liability vs RHP. The one that shocked me was Hicks. I knew he was much better from the right side, but this is crazy: vs RHP .178 BA/.300 OBP/.212 SLG vs LHP .279 BA/.410 OBP/.382 SLG
  8. Physics Guy
    If they are lighting it up, that indicates they are ready. I would hope the Twins would find space to use them.
  9. Physics Guy
    I think you misconstrued what I was talking about. I was referring to the chatter on our forums, not specifically on whether they will/will not be called up. I contend that the "noise" on the forums will be directly related to how the guys on the big leauge team are doing. If Plouffe, Hicks and Arcia are all playing well, I don't think there will be as many pushing for call up Sano and Buxton right away. If all three are stinking up the joint, everybody will want them up. I want Sano and Buxton to come up when they are ready to contribute.
  10. Physics Guy
    I would say that depends on what Plouffe, Hicks and Arcia are doing at that point. The Twins' record would have a big part in that also. I hope that the forums are "quiet" on the issue and they can call Buxton and Sano up when they are truly ready and the Twins have a need.
  11. Physics Guy
    Thanks for the update Seth!
  12. Physics Guy
    Plouffe's greatest value to the team is that he gives them above average performance at little cost. I agree, you keep him around until you have better options or you have to start paying him above his production level. He needs to take another step up if he wants a big payday when he becomes a FA. He would need to either get his BA up above .270 or get the SLG back towards .450.
  13. Physics Guy
    I for one was happy to see Escobar break out this year. I am somewhat skeptical of him improving on what he did this year and actually believe he is more likely to regress a bit. A small regression still makes him an above average middle IF. My personal preference is to use him as the "10th starter" with Santana at SS for next year and Hicks in CF. If Hicks doesn't take hold of CF then maybe we put Santana back in CF as a placeholder until Buxton makes it up. As a 10th starter we can sit him against the better LHP. Whatever the Twins decide to do, Escobar has made himself into a valuable member of the team.
  14. Physics Guy
    So you are saying Escobar deserves to play over Plouffe? You will have a hard time convincing me of that one.
  15. Physics Guy
    There was a comment on SD Buhr thread about Sano and Buxton that might be appropriate to throw in here. Might Buxton already be able to give you Bourjos production? I would contend that we wait a month or two to give Buxton a few AA at-bats and go with Hicks/Schaefer in the meantime.
  16. Physics Guy
    How about halfway in between? .777 OPS
  17. Physics Guy
    I'll take Plouffe 2014 and be happy.
  18. Physics Guy
    You are talking about three pretty good young pitchers. Teams don't just unload those guys cheaply. Plouffe could be the top player in the package, but I would think it would take a couple of pretty good prospects besides.
  19. Physics Guy
    Put me in the camp of making both of them prove they are healthy and ready to contribute. AFL and winter ball will help, but I'd still like to see them spend some time in the minors next season to get their feet wet. Plouffe is fine at 3B, so we don't need to rush Sano. I say play Hicks in CF (maybe play Schaefer against the best RHP). It gives us a couple of months to see if Hicks has turned the corner and can be the LF/RF when Buxton comes up. You can't completely disregard the service time argument. While the Twins should lock up Sano and Buxton well before they hit FA, it does allow them to do so a year later. For a cost-conscious team like the Twins, that can be important. That said, Terry Ryan hasn't seemed too concerned about that in the past.
  20. Physics Guy
    I wouldn't be opposed to this, but they need to show they are close to ready in Spring Training. I'd prefer they give Plouffe 3B and Hicks CF to start the season. Once Sano and Buxton prove they are healthy and get their feet under them I wouldn't be opposed to bringing them up.
  21. Physics Guy
    What two complete years with LAA? He didn't break 200 PA other than 2011. It's pretty hard to gauge his batting record without more data. Was he playing only when he had good matchups? His .692 career OPS is pretty good for a defensive CF, but it would mean more if he had two or three full seasons worth of AB's.
  22. Physics Guy
    Unless Gibson can increase his K rate, I'm not sure he can become elite. He needs to develop an offspeed pitch he can get K's with. Radke struck out guys at a higher rate earlier in his career at a time when guys didn't strike out much. Being that he is already 27, I'm not sure how much upside he has from here. He can be a solid #3, with #2 upside if he can develop an "out" pitch.
  23. Physics Guy
    I personally will be OK with .500 next year if we continue to develop our young players. Would 85 wins be nice? Of couse, but I'm not expecting it. I want Arcia, Santana, Vargas and Hicks to prove they can be big league regulars. I want Meyer and Sano to show they belong next year. I want Buxton to be ready to contribute in 2016 and perhaps get a late season callup.
  24. Physics Guy
    I think it might be wise for the Twins to explore both Sano and Plouffe in the OF this year. There are still doubts that Sano can stick at 3B, so why not try him in RF a bit. Plouffe has worked to become a solid 3B. I really want nothing to do with trading Plouffe until we are sure Sano can play 3B at a reasonable level. If Plouffe or Sano appear to be satisfactory in RF, I say we could do a Sano/Arcia platoon. Plouffe appears to have improved his splits to the point where he is not a liability against RHP. Sit Sano against the best RHP and Arcia against the better LHP. Plouffe or Sano could play RF when Arcia sits. Depending on whether Vargas maintains his level from this year, there may also be AB's at DH. That being said, I doubt this would come into play until June at the earliest with Sano missing the entire season. He needs to play winter ball and show he is ready coming into Spring Training.
  25. Physics Guy
    This is the main reason I want the Twins to either sign a top three FA or trade for a SP better than Hughes (Gonzalez, Latos, etc.) Meyer should be ready for the starting rotation next year, but make him earn the spot. Hold Terry to his word that Nolasco isn't assured of a spot in the rotation just because of his contract. Why not put Meyer in the bullpen if there isn't room? Worked well in St. Louis with Wainright, Wacha and Lynn. A player like Shields/Gonzalez would improve the top 2 (Hughes and Shields/Gonzo vs Hughes and Gibson) and also strengthens the bottom 3 by pushing Gibson down. Shields/Gonzalez Hughes Gibson Nolasco/Mays/Meyer Mays/Meyer Notice I left off Pelfrey. He needs to, at best, fill Swarzak's role.
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