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Kwak

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Everything posted by Kwak

  1. Kwak
    It's nice to look at guys in the minors and project that they become solid (or better) SPs, but history shows most of these guys fail. Consider recent Twins pitchers that had substantial success in the minors--even at Rochester who floundered or even completely failed at the ML level. Recall this preseason when people were guessing who would be in the rotation this year? Diamond was not only deemed a lock for this season, but for several years. Now? His future as a SP is in question. Things change. There are very good reasons why teams sign free agents to join their rotation.
  2. Kwak
    I think Diamond has an option remaining--it may be him instead of Walters. That being said, Pelfrey would likely get two ML starts to "showcase" his health (as well as his arm) prior to the break for the purpose of trading him.
  3. Kwak
    Seems unusual to replace Willingham with Carroll in the lineup with the concommitant movement of players in the field.
  4. Kwak
    Platoon at SS, Florimon (the primary) vs LHP and Escobar/alternate RHH (option #2) vs LHP.
  5. Kwak
    I don't follow the Royals (nor really care to follow them). Yes, there is risk in longer term contracts--there is different type of risk in limiting the team to two-year contracts too! But then we need to pull way back to answering the question: "What are we trying to do?" Unless that question is closely defined we are likely talking to cross purposes. Consider the 2011/12 off-season where Willingham, Doumit, Carroll, and Marquis were signed. I think the answer is simple--just make the team palatable until younger, and better, players are acquired--as opposed to building a team for the future. The lowest cost option (eg. Houston and Florida) wasn't adopted for a reason. A higher cost option of obtaining one young star and paying him free agent salary, was also not adopted. What was the Royals plan?--I don't know, it seems like a hybrid of what the Twins did before the '12 season, and the "higher cost option" I wrote above. Admittedly, it is more expensive than the Twins plan, but it does show a committment by the Royals to their fans that status quo was unacceptable and a better team needed to be put on the field.
  6. Kwak
    "Final piece?" How would anybody know if they have 'the final piece"? I think it make sense to think like a collector of fine art--you acquire pieces that fit, when they become available. Case in point. I read an article today about "trading dealine players"--guys that will become free agents at the end of the season. One name was Matt Garza. A guessimated price of $15-16MM per season was stated--guessimated! It is clear the Twins need several replacements in their rotation. Garza was the only pitcher named either! My point is that a significant improvement in the rotation is needed, not all "prospects" will succeed (point of this thread) and this off-season there will be some very "useful pieces" available--it would be folly to think that all needed "pieces" can be acquired in one season.
  7. Kwak
    I think 6-12 also, but 3-15 is far more likely than 9-9--and that is scary!
  8. Kwak
    Diamond is too worried about throwing strikes--too many pitches elevated and in the heart of the plate. Diamond has be on the corners--and just off of the corners--in order to succeed. What I saw in the 5th inning last night was just one fat pitch after another with an occasional "big miss" of the strikezone, the type that doesn't draw anything resembling a swing. I fear his future is as a one-inning guy.
  9. Kwak
    Lower payroll in 2014--count on it! No Morneau and his $14MM, Blackburn and his $5.5MM, or Butera and his $0.7MM contracts. Carroll, if retained, would be at a reduced salary. Sign a bat and and arm? If they do, it's another KC/Pelfrey for the pitcher, and a Doumit-like salary for "the bat"--and I'm really skeptical about any FA hitter. I estimate next year's payroll at $60MM. How competitive will the Twins be in 2014? Let's wait until the AS break. If this strerch is ~.500 then next year will likely show some "competitiveness". But, if there is a disaster (like the 1-4 road trip we just saw!)--oh my! Ugly is the word for 2014. The Twins will just repeat 2011,'12, and '13. The Twins will need a substantial improvement in SP, and a significant improvement in hitting to reach the levels of 2002-2004--which will take either a lot of time, luck, or money to get new players.
  10. Kwak
    Precisely! The average fan think owners roll in dough and can (should) spend to put the best team on the field possible. They do want a connection to the team--but if 25 strangers start winning enough, they will jump on a bandwagon.
  11. Kwak
    He has hit HRs in the past vs NY especially at Yankee stadium. I would not be surprised they take Morneau salary and all, but I believe that NYY will believe they are doing the Twins a favor and will exchange the proverbial subway token for Justin.
  12. Kwak
    I assume you mean July 14 not June 14.
  13. Kwak
    Arcia agreed with you--his RF play was "below ML Standard". People are worried about replacing Morneau--move Arcia to 1B!
  14. Kwak
    Wait until next July when the NYY have had to endure a 1/2 season of no Mariano Rivera, they will be screaming for bullpen help and be ripe for the plucking.
  15. Kwak
    Public outcry over the loss of Morneau? Do you mean like the one over Cuddyer? It would be short and soft. The FO defenders would get mobilized and we would be barraged with "Trust in Terry" and "wow we got some great players in the minors who will be here soon", and "we don't want to 'block the young studs' from the Twins roster". Trust me, the Twins will survive the loss of Morneau.
  16. Kwak
    I think this problem won't be with us after July--someone will be traded, and all of those who are still clinging to "Division Race" or even the spurious .500 season will have seen the light. Those who are quick to short-sell Parmalee should be reminded of Ortiz!
  17. Kwak
    Trust in Pohlad--Morneau is a goner. But on a more serious note, Justin's best days are long gone and there are other options. Consider, Sano continues to impress, and is promoted to the Twins in 13 months, Sano and Plouffe man the corners, one at 1st the other at 3rd. Collabello can get a second tryout. Parmalee is another option, include Doumit for next year as a possibility. I expect the FO is already picking their new car out awaiting the extra bonus they can get by moving Morneau off of the payroll.
  18. Kwak
    I want to thank Brock and Jay fortheir links on correlations. The discussion of OBP/SLG/OPS s covered by those two articles--OBP showed the highest corelation over the range selected. There was some math in my education as well, (ome chemistry too!). The ranges selected (based on actual team stats) is important. All of the posted analyses are working overtime to make a linear function of the variable(s) in the analysis. They do appear to agree with linear in that narrow range--but the funcions must actually be non-linear over their entire range (OBP 0 to 1, and SLG 0 to 4). To me, it seems that there must be a factor of: K/ (1-OBP) exp (X) because if a team had a perfect OBP (1.0) they would score an infinite number of runs. I was reminded of the equations used for process control (Proportional, Integral and Derivative) that involve some advanced math. The Proportional eq'n includes a factor o the natural log e and loks something like: (sorry Ihave this dumb keyboard, no sub or superscripts, Greek letters) {1 - e exp((-K1/K2 + 1)/K3} Then there are the integration and derivative of the key variables (not shown) but they do obtain the desired results. OK, enough math. My point is if one is trying to obtain one statistic to evaluate a player's offensive capability. I believe they are like the alcheists of old trying to turn base metal (BB statistics) into Gold (true value of a player). There are just too many variables to reduce everything to just one simple calculation/number.
  19. Kwak
    What's the correlation between OBP and scoring compared to SLG and scoring?
  20. Kwak
    If he is : cool under fire, holds/picks-off runners, and is well above average at fielding his position, Albers can be a very effective SP--Mark Buerhle. The Twins haven't had anybody close to that skill set for awhile.
  21. Kwak
    actually no--PC.
  22. Kwak
    Fatigue? If that is his problem, then his entire training regimen is at fault. The innings limit is imposed to reduce inflammation and "unseeable" tissue damage, not fatigue.
  23. Kwak
    sorry dp.
  24. Kwak
    That darn USA Today ad is covering-up the top link-to-thread. Can the layout be modified?
  25. Kwak
    Unless someone has watched this guy, timed his pitches, and are sufficiently aware of the opposing hitters, any comment is spurious. That being said, his season is very interesting and I fully expect that Albers will recieve an invite to the ML ST camp next February with a spot on the 40-man roster as his carrot.
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