Kwak
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Everything posted by Kwak
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Morneau's salary ($14MM) could be more productively used in other positions.
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A qualifying offer is well over $10MM/year! No one will sign him, and the Twins will be stuck with him at a ridiculous salary.
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He has 2 HRs and an OPS of .750--he is on pace for (drum roll) 8 HRs and an OPS of .750. Florimon has 2 HRs, Hicks has 3! Morneau is untradeable! Even considering a contract extension is ridiculous.
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How many HRs does Morneau have?--not enough for some team to pay the equivalent of an 8-figure contract, and include anybody resembling a ML player. Morneau will be viewed as a salary dump for any trade discussion--and that's what should be done! Where are all of the FO defenders who cry "blocking prospects"? Morneau's big days are behind him, it's time to promote from within and see if these minor league sluggers can repeat said success at the ML level in 2014.
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All of this begs the questions: Why would other teams want said Twins players and what would they realistically offer in return?
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The twins have a "no collision" policy in effect for Morneau, (maybe Mauer too?). I suspect that there is no insurance coverage for "concussion issues"--and that would make any trade "testy".
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Perkins is by far the most valuable to a trade partner--but his contract is guaranteed through 2015, with a buyout option ($300K) for 2016. Perk's establishing himself as the #1 lh rp in the AL--and his agent knows this! The liklihood of Perkins extending is low--top LH pitchers (closers especially) are rare and their value is huge. Assuming Perkins continues his performance trajectory, the Twins wouldn't be in a position to outbid the top teams--nor should they! Keep Perkins around for 1-1/2 to 2-1/2 years? Sure, unless there is a super-sweet offer. I am convinced that offer will emerge in that time-frame.
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Way too much is being made of the FA pitchers signed this past off season--yet are ignoring the real point. The Twins refuse to pursue one or two quality starters to keep 4-5 years and thus are constantly trying to sign multiple players to 1 or at most two year contracts. A successful team needs cornerstones. Go back to the end of 2010--the Twins were a winning team and quality players were interested in playing for the Twins. The myopic FO extended Pavano--who was known to be near the end of his tether and was injury-prone throughout his career. The Twins refused to take (the prudent risk) of seeking a younger (and healthier) pitcher for 4-5 years. Therefore, they have to repeat their FA dumpster-diving every year.
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Ah, here we go again--"we might be blocking a superstar"? What claptrap! Teams make space for stars to play! Cabrera at 3B is an excellent example of that. The Twins even played Harmon at 3B for a year, they eventually made him into a 1B despite having a competent 1B, just so he would have a place to play. Back to staarting pitching--there a 5 of them--no "future star" would be blocked if a top FA were signed. Even in today's team--no one was blocked! Back in March, Hicks was thought to be "that star"--space was made for him. When Arcia was promoted--space was made for him to play every day--even after his gaffe against Baltimore. I swear this thread is like that "singing show" with all of the "smoke" blown on stage obscurring the performers.
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To not add talent when it is available is myopic. A "core of players"? There was one in place. To wait "until the core is ready" is foolish. The needed pieces are not necessarily available at that time. A top free agent can be used as one of cornerstones.
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"Overpay"? My, what a convienent word--strong connotations, ill-defined, and to fans--irrelevant! Most of baseball is convinced that the Twins "overpaid" for Mauer--but none on this blog. The discussion points have gone from: "woe is us, it's pointless (wasteful) to spend on free-agent talent", then to "it's too risky to spend because somebody might fail", moving to "it's still pointless because other franchises can easily out-spend the Twins", and now to "overpay". So why are people so concerned about "payroll efficiency"? It's not our money, nor is our fan enjoyment enhanced becaused the Twins spent less than X to win (or lose). People weren't all that concerned about paying triple per seat to watch the Twins in Target Field (as well as the increased taxes) compared to watching in the Metrodome--so why should we be concerned if payroll efficiency is maximized? It seems to me that fans would want to see the most entertaining team possible rather than cheap, lovable losers.
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"...defending the Correia signing...". The defense they used was: "We can't give our money away." Also, " We have [more] offers 'out there'." The FO as much as stated that Correia wasn't their first choice (remember Baker?), but that he was the first guy to commit.
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There has been so much discussion about last year's free agents, but posters have missed the point that FA "buying" should be like buying a top collectable or finding a new job. You don't wait until you have to "buy". One must constantly on the lookout for that player who will make a decisive improvement when he becomes available--and then make your move! True, you "have a job you like" and taking a new one requires that you must let go something you value, (the job you have or one of your rotation) but the reward is worth the risk. Ryan (and the Twins) have typically been myopic and rely on filling immediate needs and try to do so with short-term, bargain-basement contracts. That strategy is unsound and generally leads to disappointing results.
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Article: Which Team's Aces Did the Twins Miss?
Kwak replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I guess we don't include the Boston offer of Lester, Masterson, and CF Coco Crisp as part of our analysis. Perhaps said designation of "Ace" ( I'm guessing #1 pitcher on said team) is a bit too restrictive--maybe #2 pitchers should be included? IIRC, Cliff Lee was 5th or 6th Round. There are others who would sure improve the Twins rotation--but fall short of your "Ace" designation--that were definitely available. -
"We're overpaying"? Unless you mean the public subsidy to the Twins, we're not overpaying at all. The same positions/arguements have been discussed ad nauseum. Terms like "overpaying", "blocking developing players", and references to meaningless wins because the team can't "win enough" anyway. Half-statements like "...can't give our money away" and using that as a defense for sub par talent--it doesn't end. It should be clear by now that management's priority is short-term profit maximazation and any "promises made" to obtain the public subsidy are essentially the same political rhetoric used in election years--get our votes, then forget us until they need us again.
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"Add?" How many times have we heard Ryan (or another FO type) speak of building/winning "the right way"? Or make some statement including the term "overpay"? Plenty! The Twins are planning to rebuild from the addition of newly signed amateurs and augment with "value-priced" veterans (read the Carrolls, Pelfrey's, and Corriera's) and Rule 5 types--or what I term "dumpster-diving". Operating on a $60-$65MM payroll ensures profitability even with dismal attendance. Said reasoning? Other teams have had success/are succeeding with that payroll.
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High payrolls generally come from the major markets. In order to convince the masses to watch their team stars have to be provided. The Twins live in a fairy-tale market where a losing team comprised of mostly no-names, is not only tolerated by the media but also by the fans! In fact there is a legion of apologists extolling the virtue of said strategy. The major cities that I have lived in routinely scourage an underperforming team/management.
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Except we are supposed to believe that the same group that ran the team from the late 90's on, and that is still running the team now, will draft (and develop!) players much better than before. The opponents are standing pat either! If we have learned anything this past 5 weeks, it should be that transistion from minor league success to major league success isn't easy, fast, or assured.
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It's really just giving playing time to the bench--Escobar and Carroll--not showing dissatisfaction with Plouffe.
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Article: Hicks Shaping Up As Bruno Success Story?
Kwak replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Ah, another of the "we need three..." club. Mastroianni was the 2nd CF. There are only 25 men on the Active Roster. Twins simply can't be three deep every position. Then there's the obvious: The chest pounding due to all the OF (especially CF) talent in the franchise. Acquiring someone else's castoff CF is a huge mistake and wasteful of whoever would be exchanged for said CF. The odor worse than Ramos for Capps has been avoided so far, I hope it continues. -
Article: Hicks Shaping Up As Bruno Success Story?
Kwak replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Rookies have a natural need to prove themselves--by hitting. As such they often attack most every pitch perceived to be in the strike zone. Clever pitchers realize the over-aggressive nature and bait said rookie with pitches out of the zone. The more the rookie chases--the more he struggles. Very few teams adopt the "pound the strikezone" philosophy like the Twins and give their pitchers more leeway in pitching out the zone. Consider Saturday's game: The WSox yielded 8 walks, yet it wasn't the walk that beat them, it was an 2B, followed by an IFers error. 2 runs in 10 innings--but 8 walks! In Twinsland had that happened Gardenhire would have been madly pacing and frequently sending Anderson to the mound for a chat with the pitcher. The rookies who are playing regularly, are all struggling at the plate Hicks the most, then Dozier, and to a lesser degree Parmalee. They are seeing many strikes, but are constantly baited with sucker pitches. The cure for that is patience and talking the walks. Eventually, pitchers realize they must throw more strikes which yields more hits. -
Article: Draft Board v.3.0 (4/20)
Kwak replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins need to adopt the philosophy of "reaching for stars" as opposed to the the "safe" picks. Stars make a team a winner, the "safe" guys just keep a team from failing enough to realize that there is a problem and not being able to select soon enough to get a high-profile draft choice. As far as jobs on the line? I don't recall there any bloodletting as a result of previous mistakes. It seems to me that they keep the same people year-after-year irrespective of results. -
When I watched it on TV (live) it started inner-half, and finished right-down-the-middle, but low.
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Article: Oswaldo Arcia To Be Called Up On Monday
Kwak replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Gardenhire said "...the computer says Mauer should bat 1st, 2nd, and 3rd...". But, there is the rather likely scenario where Mastroianni plays CF and leads off. Include Arcia in the mix and who sits? My take: Arcia in LF, Willingham DH, and Doumit sits/backs up Mauer. -
Article: Oswaldo Arcia To Be Called Up On Monday
Kwak replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Is there anyone who doesn't believe this team needs good hitters? Or, that the Twins are rebuilding for the future? Or, that there isn't oodles of $$ available in the payroll now and in the future? It should be abundantly clear that the Twins find out who can produce and secure regular playing time for them. Service time is only relevant for armchair GMs. There are more spots available than there are people who can/should fill them. If Arcia belongs--play him. I also recall several years back that the Twins liked to promote deserving minor leaguers "a taste" not just as a reward but for the experience so when said player truly is promoted (and expected to stay) that he "has some experience" and is less likely to be awed/overwhelmed. Maybe that's the case with Arcia--and maybe they are hoping he can stick and become a regular. In either case, let's hope he knocks the cover off of the ball, stays around for oh 10 years or so, and discussion of service time can be completely forgotten (as it should!).

