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Kwak

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Everything posted by Kwak

  1. Kwak
    There is more to negotiating than "sunk cost". There is also the reputation of "tough negotiator" vs "quick-buck-taker". Consider in the "trade" both sides "gain", but one side "gains" considerably more than the other side. Reference Game Theory, where the result is not zero sum. If the GM is on the "lesser" side, he was out-negotiated and would be perceived as "such". Reference Bill Smith with his Tampa trade followed by the Santana trade. Smith was "out negotiated". Sometimes "no deal" is better for the long-term than "caving-in" to grab a small gain. I don't know what Ryan thinks "is good", but he has had a lot of experience in baseball negotiating, so I can "give him a Pass" if nothing happens. The offer just wasn't "good enough".
  2. Kwak
    I'm flabbergasted I just heard Bremer say "... this PTC stuff is Ok but, f they just keep fouling them off... sometimes you have to get a swing-and-miss." Is PTC dead in Twinsville?
  3. Kwak
    Entirely different cases. Morneau is expensive, and has to be an everyday player to justify making the trade. Everybody has a 1B man and can find a fill-in (like the Twins did with Cuddyer) in a pinch. Butera is cheap--barely above minimum salary. Even better, Butera can be kept in the minors until the Dodgers want to call him up. Butera's situation offers substantially more flexibility than Morneau's. This "prospect" the Twins received? I'm guessing the Dodgers were writing him off anyway. Besides, they don't need bargain-basement pitchers anymore.
  4. Kwak
    Gardenhire has influence--to be sure--but he is a Ryan disciple. If he was replaced (*), you can darn well bet the next manager will be a Ryan disciple too. It sure looks to me that there will be a continuance of "value-pitchers" (maybe with one "name" on a short-term contract) and an abundance of relief pitchers, maybe even more than now! RP's are cheap wrt to SPs and also much easier to find affordable replacements. The Twins still stick rigidly to the 100-pitch count--even with veterans who aren't in the long-term plan--and I don't see that changing! * Earlier in the year Ryan was on record supporting Gardenhire as manager and essentially excused him from responsibilty of losing because the roster was of inadequate talent. Thus, it seems 99+% likely that Gardenhire will be the Twins manager in 2014.
  5. Kwak
    Last year (and perhaps before then) Ryan said "...he wants lots of arms."--options. I have to believe that he still has that opinion and will act to do so for 2014. The statement by Pohlad about free-agent pitching is not so clear--especially when that is exactly what was done last year--sign free agent pitchers! Some perceive that means a top 50 guy, some maybe top 100 pitcher, and then it could be just like last year! The names provided as a discussion point are mostly correct I believe, but I do expect Albers to make the rotation provided he doesn't fall apart. But I actually think there will be a FA pitcher signed. I think the Twins would very much like to sign Johan, even with a gentleman's agreement that he would be traded in July. Players do tend to "come home" for a stop. But, if not Johan, somebody.
  6. Kwak
    Bummer! I guess Justin better enjoy these monstrous checks for the rest of the year, it sounds like he will be on a minimal "make-good" contract next year. I think he will continue to be a regular starter through August (they do want to make a trade!), then he will be benched in September in order to give a better look at other players.
  7. Kwak
    It was in the Sports section of the Mpls tribune.
  8. Kwak
    I think we should wait until the end of this year to answer. I'd like to see how well he plays defense, holds baserunners, and above all responds to adversity. Given the sad state of starting pitching in Twinsville, he really doesn't have to do much more for the rest of the season to nail-down a spot in the rotation, given this start.
  9. Kwak
    Dozier--he's had 2 1/2 very nice months, certainly enough to be a starter next year. However, the parallel to Plouffe is too close. Dozier needs to turn those 2 1/2 months into a full year next year before he "shall be annointed". Parmelee--how in h he climbed aboard is hazy, is a completely another matter. Dozier (and Plouffe) had a rabbi (or godfather) to protect him and give him (them) that "patience" to see if he could succeed--Parmelee doesn't have "one". Life's unfair--but this happens. If he is destined to succeed he will be a Garrett--picked-up by a losing team and be given a chance to succeed--and then do it. His "problem" is Doumit, the uneven hitting of the whole team, and Gardenhire's thirst for interchangeable parts with a desire for a third catcher. Hermann is being provided with his opportunity to prove himself, so Ryan can trade Doumit. Parmelee is just the "odd-man-out". True, if he had been a big success (and sustained it) he wouldn't be in this predicament. Another fly in the ointment is how well does Sano play 3B at the MLB level? If he is another Cuddyer--ugh! Sano gets moved and then the need for a SS with way above average defensive skills is paramount--meaning forget Dozier as a SS. But that issue won't have to be faced for "awhile". Then the issue of starting pitching, and the Dozier/Rosario question--but that's more than a year away also.
  10. Kwak
    It was reported that the PTBNL is CASH$$$. But maybe only 20K.
  11. Kwak
    I think there are GMs (and field managers/head coaches) that are best suited for only crtain situations (times in the life-cycle) of a team. Example: Ryan seems to be best suited to rebuild a bad team into a middle-of-the-road team. If said team's owner want to be a championship team, then a different GM would likely perform better. Ball players cost, better players even more. Some franchises can just write checks, because they can, while others would have to exchange their future to acquire the talent upgrades to reach the championship level. To me, Ryan isn't the GM to take a decent team to the top--but he is very good at turning around a bad team.
  12. Kwak
    I am aware a cleared player doesn't have to be traded--at all! My belief is that the Twins wish to cut ties with Morneau even if all they receive is cost reduction. By changing teams, it also permits the Twins to make an offer for a free-agent Morneau substantially below his present salary and it also breaks the chain of 5 and 10 for future trade considerations.
  13. Kwak
    The point of waiving a man is for him to be claimed. It was clever on Ryan's part to wait the two weeks, in order to allow teams to satisfy themselves that they were "in it" and make a claim for Morneau. The delay also reduces their cost. With respect to which team claims Justin--that is irrelevant to the Twins. If Morneau is claimed, I fully expect a straight cash deal--they pay the rest of Morneau's salary for 2013 and the Twins get a reduced payroll.
  14. Kwak
    Or next year trade Dozier for starting pitching? We can toss in Duensing.
  15. Kwak
    Which FAs sign 1-year contracts?--the damaged goods type. Yes, buy lottery tickets! I believe this strategy was employed last off-season--maybe it will work better this year?
  16. Kwak
    I would have just bought-out the rest of his contract and given him his unconditional release. Oh well, maybe they think he can actually produce?
  17. Kwak
    To clarify, I was congratulating Ryan for the trade (and also wishing Carroll well) for obtaining said PTBNL and saving money (and by extension, opening a slot on the active roster)--that was a good trade (IMO) and Ryan earned his kudo. Apparently not all agree. Oh well...
  18. Kwak
    Believe it or not, but MLB is a business. Playing time? He was a reserve. The Twins will pocket that money.
  19. Kwak
    Me 2! +1.
  20. Kwak
    Exactly what I expected--Royals were looking for an INF who could help them. I hope he takes KC to the WC! Good luck to him and KC. PTBNL? Hmm, difficult to get excited about that, but somebody and a cost-cutting move by the FO! That's our Ryan!
  21. Kwak

    Morneau

    Kwak replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk

    My, my the support to throw MMs at Morneau for 9 games! Apparently some have forgotten a few things: 1) Morneau can sign with any other team after he declares he is a free agent--perhap playing on winner for more money would be of interest to Justin? 2) If Morneau shows "he's back" in August/September, there will be competition for him 3) If he "isn't back", why on earth sign him? He's damaged goods and selling his wares on past glory--which is gone (see premise) 4) a small sample size (August/September) is really too short to make this large of a commitment 5) and the larger issue of using his salary to acquire free pitching will be more useful 6) if he is extended, he becomes a 5 and 10 guy and trading him becomes very difficult 7) extending Morneau sends a message of "you don't have to produce as long as we like you". Nah, waive him, trade him if possible,--but say "Good-Bye".
  22. Kwak
    He needs to just hit--period. Seeing as if every breaking ball mystifies him--even when they "break toward him", it is certain that he would be helpless when they break away from him.
  23. Kwak
    "(or at least Hicks is back)"... Considering his AAA experience it appears unlikely it will be this September. If we include April-August, next season doesn't look so good either.
  24. Kwak
    I don't think Thomas will be going anyplace. Ramirez, hmm, maybe just DFA'd. DeVries could easily be placed on 60-day DL--it's not as if Rochester is panting to have him return. Collabello is a wildcard. His BAVG suggests he is toast, but with Morneau's status (and 1B next season) in limbo, I think he will be retained to get a longer look at him.
  25. Kwak
    An expectation of OPS >.500 and released in June is a complete dismissal of Florimon. Exceeding that performance bar doesn't address the real question of: "who is the regular SS of the Twins now and for a turnaround?" I believe he has earned the job for April 2014, but I need to see a lot more before a long-term contract is warranted. I hope Florimon "is the SS", but not prepared to deem him so, yet.
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