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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I know that pythag doesn't "matter". But if you want to claim that errors and defense are a major part of their actual wins and losses, it helps if it also correlates to their actual runs scored and allowed.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Baez + Castro + Schwarber for Tulowitzki? Now I'm just having fun. No pitchers there, though... The Jays have done some aggressive stuff, and they have some elite young arms. Would they package some with Jose Reyes for Tulo? Again, just brainstorming. If I'm the Rockies, and I am ready to deal, I start by calling the Mets and Yankees, of course. The Rockies haven't impressed me with their personnel moves recently, so who knows what they would consider the best package. Do they even know where they are at on the rebuild cycle?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    You'd think Sickels would be aware of Kepler for his midseason list: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/6/18/8804727/twins-prospect-max-kepler-breaks-out-in-double-a I like him too, but all things considered, I don't think he's going to be viewed as elite yet.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, makes more sense. I don't know much about the Rockies system. On the Cubs, if Baez doesn't pan out and they want to cut bait with Castro, they might be willing to make a splash for a SS and leave Russell at 2B. Heck, maybe they could send Castro to the Rockies with a couple elite prospects (dang, they've had a bunch of elite prospects!). I wouldn't want to touch Castro with a ten foot pole, but that's just an example of the kind of creative offers that would probably pop up if the Rockies were serious about moving Tulo and wanted to get elite prospect(s) in return.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Baez and Russell? I am sure the Cubs have a plan. But my point is, in addition to teams with obvious needs like the Mets, Yankees, and Pirates, there are other teams that could have a need soon, or could find a way to enter a Tulo sweepstakes if it began in earnest. Right now, I half-suspect that the Rockies owner just likes having an excuse to talk and hang out with Tulowitzki.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Severino is ranked ahead of Berrios by BA and Sickels. Judge is ahead of him by BA too, and #30 on Sickels midseason top 75. Kepler did not make Sickels' midseason top 75 (although Meyer is still clinging on at #75, for what it's worth ). Obviously the Yankees have other prospects too, but the point is, they have a desperate need and some top guys if they wanted to get into the fray. Maybe that Twins offer is the best the Rockies could get if they set a deadline for next week (although that move might signal other teams to get aggressive too), but they are clearly not rushing this thing. There's nothing special about that Twins offer that would force them to act fast (i.e. Beane offering Russell for Samardzija early last July).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    White Sox could always make a splash at SS too.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Pittsburgh could beat our offer too if they were willing to give up Glasnow. I don't think they would right now, but the Rockies can afford to wait and see. Heck, even that Twins offer is probably still on the table this winter, if not into 2016 too. Other teams may see a SS need arise in the next year or two too, especially if they lose patience with struggling incumbents (i.e. Cubs).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The Yankees desperately need a SS and could match that offer by leading with Severino or Judge. If the Mets included just one of the 4 young starters (Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz), they can probably beat either the Twins or Yankees.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rockies 2B may have been an all-star, but he is not a very good player. I suspect some of their reticence to move Tulo might be due to the fact that any infielders they develop of acquire might be needed at 2B soon more than as Tulo's replacement.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps money is one reason why those hypothetical deals never came to fruition... How many good-performing stars have been traded with long-term contracts, much less required cash to be sent with them? Texas sent money with A-Rod, but he was the highest paid player in the game at the time.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    The A's are punting this season, but I wouldn't take this as a sign of a fire sale on Zobrist, Vogt, Phegley, etc. Kazmir was on an expiring contract, and it's possible the A's weren't comfortable extending him a qualifying offer. I'd expect Clippard to get dealt too, but that might be about it for now.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Their pythag already accounts for defense and errors. Anything that leads to runs (or keeps runs off the board, on the offensive side).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree they are not getting a top 10 prospect, and maybe no other team matches that offer. Still doesn't mean the Rockies trade him, though. There is no pressure on them to accept a non-overwhelming offer right now. They could probably do similarly well anytime over the next year or two, if they want.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana had no injury risk? The Mets would like a word with you...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Like I mentioned in my post above, I don't think the Rockies consider that much, and they certainly don't eat any salary in that deal (Gibson or Berrios, no Sano). But I'm glad to see folks are at least coming around to the idea that the Twins wouldn't walk away from such a deal!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rockies don't listen, which means it's a great deal for the Twins. Sub Berrios for Gibson, or Rosario for whomever, and it's still great for us. The dicey part would be including both Gibson and Berrios (or Sano). That's two pitchers who, while not aces, will hopefully be in the upper half of our rotation the next 4+ years. Or a potential elite 3B/hitter in Sano. Unless we identified another Rockies player/prospect we could add to the deal (and not just Hundley and Hawkins ), I'd probably have to walk away from that.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I noticed his K and BB rates were worse this season too, but for what it's worth, it was mostly in the first two months of the season (when he was coming back from surgery). The last two months, those rates have been much closer in line with his career. Hopefully the Twins would be applying a more critical eye than I, of course.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with your general points, but the trade was pre-2008. Guerra was rated at the time, although it should have come with a healthy dose of skepticism because of it was based almost entirely on age and reputation rather than performance (and he was a long ways away from MLB).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    The Pelfrey veteran lock was in effect when May was sent to weird bullpen limbo. Hopefully they figure out the lock combination soon.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, as you sort of hint at, we are actually past the point of moving on from Pelfrey. I am not sure what the point is of giving these guys rope either, if they should be gone in 2016 anyway. Arcia and May can almost certainly replicate their baseline contributions over the rest of 2015, with more upside too.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Hunter and Pelfrey are not winning games anymore -- that's the point. Be happy with the wins you got, but re-deploy them to wins more games once they are gone (and maybe hopefully win a few extra over the remainder of 2015).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously different players age differently, but see my Beltran example above -- taking on his long-term contract around age 30 for any reasonable prospect haul (i.e. headlined by Wheeler or Berrios type) would have been a fantastic move for the acquiring team. Not without risk, of course, but the performance upside is plainly evident. Players on the "upswing" of their careers can be good, but they are less likely to actually swing up as high as even a fairly pessimistic Tulowitzki forecast, I think. I think people here are under-rating the value of demonstrated performance, even on a contract like Tulo's remaining deal. There's a reason the Rockies aren't trading him, and it's not because no one is willing to send them a Gibson or Berrios led package and take on the remaining salary. He's simply worth more than that. The Twins should walk away because the prospect haul becomes too great (i.e. that package plus Sano), not because of the money or the aging curves or his home/road splits.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    If the Orioles were dangling Gausman, it would be for immediate help like Carlos Gomez. Not a passel of prospects like Pence and Norris fetched. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/kevin-gausman Not sure where the Mariners are at, but Miller is their current starting SS and has been mentioned very little at MLBTR lately. I don't think either is being actively shopped, which Pence and Norris almost certainly were.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Beltran actually went FROM the Mets and TO the Giants. The Giants gave up Wheeler. Wheeler was/became an arguably better prospect than Berrios, and even he has only given the Mets 50 starts of 100 ERA+ pitching so far before TJ surgery (his TJ comeback season will be his last before arbitration). Beltran played well for the Giants down the stretch, but it was indeed a steep price to pay for a 2 month rental and they missed the playoffs that year. But it would have been a pretty great for Beltran at age 30-31 controlled for many years, which is closer to where Tulowitzki is right now.
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