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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    See my post above. I think the QO is considered almost like the previous year's salary in negotiations with the current team. Like Morneau a couple years ago, after he made $14 mil for the Twins, while that salary was no longer binding, I think we were going to have a tougher time signing him to a ~$6 mil contract than other clubs.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Despite having recently played the position, Plouffe is absolutely not checking anyone's 1B box. He's got a career and 2015 OPS+ of 99, and a peak of 110. I think looking team-by-team at 3B will show you if there are any clubs where a good hitting 3B could be shifted to cover a hole elsewhere and make room for Plouffe... although the best example of that might be Plouffe's current team.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not that easy. The 10 teams that aren't set at 3B include the Brewers, Phillies, and Braves. They may not really care about getting "set" at that position for the next two years at the cost of ~$16 mil salary plus whatever talent they have to surrender in trade. For a few more like the Padres and Diamondbacks, the improvement of Plouffe over internal options might be marginal. For a few others, like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, etc., they're already committed to other 3B. And 2-3 more of the teams considered "not set" are in the same division as the Twins, which might add another layer of reluctance to part with talent to get him.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    My guess is that the Angels wanted to explore other options, with no risk of being locked into Freese and to not give Freese any expectations about AAV. From 2012-2014, 34 players received a qualifying offer, and only 8 times has the player re-signed with their former team that same winter. 2012 (QO $13.1 mil): LaRoche 2/24 Ortiz 2/26 (in leui of rejecting the offer) Kuroda 1/15 2013 (QO $14.1 mil): Kuroda again 1/16 Napoli 2/32 Drew 1/14.1 (prorated) 2014 (QO $15.3 mil): Martinez 4/68 Liriano 3/39 As qualifying offers multiply this might change, but I get the impression that the QO, even when rejected, acts as a reference point for these guys much like previous year's salary, and they'd have to sacrifice some pride to re-sign for notably less with the same club. So a rejected QO, while it would have hurt Freese's value to attach the draft pick, it would have probably made it more difficult for the Angels to snag him for 1/10 or 2/20, which seems like a reasonable fallback should their other 3B options fall through.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The very same month that this new Bedrosian was born!
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Herrmann once had a very interesting profile, walking almost as much as he struck out in his first taste of AA back in 2011, but not only has that fallen off the table in his sporadic MLB play (which is understandable), it also trended down as he repeated AA and in his first two tastes of AAA: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9284&position=C/OF If everyday MLB PA is what he needs, he's got an interesting problem in Arizona with Welington Castillo in place (a guy I wish would have blocked him in Minnesota in 2015).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That statement is reasonable, but it just felt like Seth was overstating both sides at the same time: bordering "would" rather than "could" be a league average with opportunity, and yet calling this a "tremendous" trade. That seemed incongruous. Ultimately, though, I think his estimation of Herrmann or the trade isn't all that different from most of ours here, despite the words he chose (and my likely misreading of them ).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree, it was always hyperbole to say that Butera/Herrmann were completely worthless. However, on the flip side, I think we might be over-rating their trade returns. So far, Butera and Herrmann have netted: - Miguel Sulbaran, who was young but not highly regarded, and has since proven skeptics right - Matt Long, 27 year old org filler type - Ryan Jackson, 27 year old org filler type - and now Palka, 24 year old 1B/OF yet to appear above A-ball, Arizona's #29 prospect, probably a C/C+ grade by Sickels And even flipping the young Sulbaran quickly only netted Nunez, a DFA'd, soon-to-be 27 year old career 88 OPS+ infielder widely suspected as being unable to defensively handle the infield. To me, their modest trade returns seem pretty much in line with their modest roles/contributions in MLB.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. When we say "market" we often only look at the available players, and in that light, Plouffe looks pretty attractive compared to the alternatives. But the whole "market" should also include the demand side of the equation, which definitely drops Plouffe down. Indeed, part of the reason there are so few 3B available is that many teams, especially the most aggressive competitive teams, are retaining their incumbent 3B this winter.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Jett Bandy is a catcher, with a fun name. Although Iannetta is a free agent, so I'm not sure the Angels would be looking to throw a catcher into this deal. Plouffe? No. (Well, maybe Storen, depending on how Washington resolves that mess.) A team that wants Plouffe the next 2 years probably plans to compete those years, but relief aces like Chapman and Kimbrel almost certainly have more value to competing teams. Not sure if such a trade would ever really make sense for both teams....
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Cam Bedrosian was a HS SP draftee, but since the start of 2014, he's looked a lot like what we hoped for Burdi/Reed/etc. Still hasn't successfully transitioned to MLB, but obviously as soon as he does it becomes much harder to acquire him. I wonder what Angel fans would say to Bedrosian plus Tropeano? (Although I don't think there's a real serious 40-man crunch, that is two 40-man guys for one.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Tropeano does look interesting on the numbers, kinda like Trevor May. Although I've seen him called a "finesse artist" who "projects as solid number four starter": http://www.scout.com/mlb/angels/story/1518372-prospect-countdown-5-nick-tropeano http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/8/25/9175289/los-angeles-angels-top-20-2015-pre-season-prospects-in-review
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think that's an unusual situation at all. A lot of players are useful if you already have them, but notably less useful if you have to sacrifice resources (particularly in trade) to get them. Plouffe is probably on the upper end of that spectrum owing to his defensive position, but still firmly in that group, in my opinion. (Willingham had the added complication of being only 20% into a recently signed long-term deal.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If you admit you are probably wrong, you probably don't believe it very strongly. And thus your assessment probably isn't that different than the consensus, I mean it is understood that every guy probably has a slim chance of that outcome. To be fair, I too often feel aware of my wrongness in advance, but it was just weird seeing both sides of the issue advocated in successive paragraphs...
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    As much as I like our young players, there is still a lot of potential for sputtering or stagnation in our OF and at DH. And we already are committed to a Plan A at 1B who has been the textbook definition of sputtering and stagnation the last 2 years. I'd feel kinda dumb if Sano is costing us runs defensively at 3B while we're stuck with one or more sputtering/stagnant guys in the OF/DH/1B mix. If Plouffe can net, say, a good catcher or a real immediate bullpen weapon, I could see it being a worthwhile risk for 2016. If he nets less than that, say some bullpen options that we could approximate internally or on the FA market, I really don't think we lose anything by waiting a year or even two, and in the meantime we have more confidence in our 2016 projection.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, explore away. I just think you might be overrating the positive effect of "balancing the roster" by trading Plouffe prior to 2016.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I never suggested that was your argument. Like you, I was speaking of his relative trade value.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    When you make statements like : It does seem to put more emphasis on the subtraction of Plouffe rather than what the return would be, that's all. Not trying to invent strawmen. I suspect we are all in agreement about investigating Plouffe deals, except I just don't think the demand is that strong for Plouffe this winter. If Plouffe is still on the team next spring, I suspect the culprit will be weaker demand rather than the Twins not shopping him aggressively enough.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    He probably shouldn't have started over Suzuki at any point in 2015, yet you think he could be a league average starting catcher if allowed to start? That's got to be a contradiction -- a league average starting catcher is a very valuable thing, and something Suzuki has fallen well short of 3 out of 4 years. This team absolutely needs a league average starting catcher, they don't need Arizona's #29 prospect at 1B/OF starting in AA next year. If Herrmann was likely to be the former with opportunity, it could not be tremendous to flip him for the latter. Again, want to emphasize that I don't think Herrmann is likely to achieve that level, just trying to separate projections from well-wishes here...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Angels interest in Plouffe reported at MLBTR, Cam Bedrosian being the lead name cited: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/angels-interested-trevor-plouffe-twins.html
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Isn't that a contradiction? If Herrmann could be a league average starting catcher, how can it be a "tremendous trade" to flip him for a low minors 1B/OF? In fact, if Herrmann really had that imminent potential, it would be almost criminal to park him behind Suzuki for the season, then dump him in favor of Pinto, AJ, whomever. I gotta think your league-average starter projection for him is driven by your respect for him rather than his demonstrated ability.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably don't want him seeing game action in the OF this soon due to the risk of a collision, eh?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, I wasn't critiquing his path, just noting his age (and more importantly his league) to take into consideration with his numbers.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think having Chris Herrmann on your roster adds leverage, so I can't see how removing him would take any leverage away.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    This reminds me of when we fielded offers from Korean teams to buy Colabello, who probably would have been a great slugger over there. Are we just buying a significantly more expensive version of Colabello?
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