Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone is suggesting "breaking the bank". 3/18 for Tony Sipp, for example, would not break any bank, arguably none of the larger reliever deals signed so far this winter would have either, and while not without risk, such deals certainly would provide better odds for a good bullpen (and thus better odds of being "in it" come July in the first place) than relying on "spring training cast-offs" or youth than mostly has yet to relieve at AAA, much less MLB. (Or relying on the July trade market.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Nice deal. I mean, obviously we'd all rather find the next Lowe circa 2015, but this is a pretty affordable hedge against that.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, in the abstract, the concern about opt-outs is real. Obviously getting opt-out worthy performance from any player on any deal is a pretty darn good outcome, but for some guys (i.e. Greinke), it would probably be a better deal to offer more guaranteed money upfront in exchange for no opt-out. For Shields, ages 34-36, probably not so much. Especially when we're specifically discussing exchanging him for Nolasco, rather than signing him to a FA contract.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I understand this argument about opt-outs in general, but on a shorter term for a non-elite player, it's not bad. Shields age 34, you're not expecting to get an elite level performance, so if you do, that's a pleasant surprise, probably offsetting much of the value you anticipated to receive from him age 34-36 in total. Then you'd get to make a QO and receive a draft pick in return (not guaranteed later after his age 36 season), and Shields on a 2/44 deal at age 35-36 isn't that difficult to replace on the open market if you so desire. (For example, Lackey at 2/32, or Iwakuma at 3/45.) If you need to replace him at all. Again, he's not elite, you were not counting on him for an elite performance anyway, you don't need to worry much about not getting the potential elite performances for the remaining two years. The problem with opt-outs is when elite guys like Greinke exercise them near peak ages, when you are already counting on them for elite performances and hoping for more, with a lot more years involved (Greinke opted out of 3 years, and required 6 years to sign again).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Almost fixed last season? Did you watch the games in August in September? They blew multiple games the week May went back to the rotation. Perkins was shaky as heck. Cotts was barely trusted in the 5th or 6th innings of close games. O'Rourke (vs RHB!) and Graham pitched in critical situations. This all happened even with Fien and Jepsen pitching as well as they ever have, basically.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    But the Twins inability to produce a Madson type player for the pen over the past few years is WHY the Twins bullpen got so bad last year. TR has had 4 offseason since returning, and the positive FA / minor league deal assets he as added to the pen consist of Burton (who ultimately wasn't worth a modest $3.6 option last year), Fien (an arguable nontender candidate this year at an even more modest $2.2 mil arb estimate), and Boyer. Also, Sipp has been fantastic for the last 2 seasons with the Astros, plus 2 seasons earlier in his career with the Indians. That is ridiculous. Obviously no signing (reliever or otherwise) guarantees anything, but it can give you much better odds. Signing Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana gave us better odds at a quality rotation, as opposed to acquiring Correia, Harden, Diamond, Deduno, whatever. No guarantee, but unquestionably better odds. The same principle applies to relievers. Landing Tony Sipp certainly makes it more likely the Twins have a good or potentially even great bullpen in 2016 than just rolling the dice on Dan Runzler, Aaron Thompson, etc. Again, no guarantee, but unquestionably better odds. And it's not an either-or, the Twins can sign Sipp AND still search for the next Madson, Lowe, etc.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, has something changed? Previously you recommended a one-year deal for Cotts, Thornton, Parra, or Choate as the only FA addition: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/bullpen-strategy-what-would-you-do-r4283 Glad to see you seem to be endorsing a multi-year contract for a reliever, though. Most of these guys aren't costing that much, and our pen could use the help from day 1.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    And then Rogers went to the Arizona Fall League ostensibly to pitch out the pen, but made 6 starts there instead.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    True, although interesting to note that both Burton and Fien were signed 4 years ago, in TR's first offseason back as GM. I think Boyer's modest contributions in 2015 represent the only positive product of this strategy in the 3 offseasons since. That's not only prevented us from getting a "true top-tier relief corps" it's caused a borderline awful relief corps.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I second this, good job. (Still think the Clippard one is nuts, though.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not really surprising. With Shields owed 3/65 going forward, a team valuing him closer to 3/50 would still pass on claiming him. Heck, even if you thought he was worth 3/65, just the risk that the Padres had bad info about his medicals might be enough to pass on that. If no one claims him, and the Padres are still motivated to move him, you can probably get him for a similar price in trade but be able to review his medicals and walk away if necessary. Especially in August, most teams looking for short-term SP solutions already added them in July, and teams looking for a longer-term SP solution wanted to wait another couple months to try to get free agents closer to their valuation.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That's perhaps a little closer, given the depths of awfulness that Melvin Upton reached in 2013-2014. But Upton quietly had a fine 2015 season (or half-season, as he was out until June). 112 OPS+, above-average defense in CF. Some of that offense is BABIP, but some of it is power and another slight improvement in K rate too. Upton's 2015 season is closer to Ervin Santana's 2015 season than it is to anything in Nolasco's recent output. Upton is also only owed $31.9 mil over 2 years, his age 31 and 32 seasons; Nolasco is owed $25 mil for 2 years, his age 33 and 34 seasons. For a team like the Padres that is short on outfielders, especially CF, and seems to have little trouble churning out decent pitchers in that ballpark, Upton is way more valuable right now than Nolasco.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Look at those last two years again -- Nolasco has serious performance AND health questions right now. In the current market, I think he'd be much closer to Bud Norris (1 year, $2.5 mil) or even a NRI than Mike Pelfrey (2 years, $16 mil). Remember, even with the crazy money going to SPs, the Cubs couldn't get anyone to pay Edwin Jackson more than the minimum salary going forward. Right now, I think you'd have to eat pretty much the whole salary or take a similar dead salary back to have a chance of moving Nolasco. And that means DEAD salary, like Edwin Jackson was, or the recent deals of Chris Johnson, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, etc., not simply excess salary for still good players like Shields. The Twins still have a few other suspects on the 40-man and probably 25-man roster too, so Nolasco's specific roster spot isn't terribly valuable to us right now. I think the better course of action is just holding on to Nolasco and hope he can turn things around.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    In case my above posts weren't clear, the existence of this thread is absolutely baffling to me. Jeff Samardzija just got a 5/90 deal, running through his age 35 season, after coming off a much worse season than Shields in 2015. JA Happ just got 3/36, also through age 35, after being given away as a $2 mil salary dump in July. Coming off a similar ERA+, Ervin Santana got $55 mil guaranteed through age 35 last winter. Nolasco himself got $49 mil guaranteed two winters ago, albeit only through age 34 but with much worse career marks than even Shields' 2015 season. Shields at 3/65 through age 36 isn't perfect, but as an asset it's light years ahead of Nolasco right now.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    If over 200 innings at roughly league-average SP run prevention is the "new normal" for Shields, that's lights years ahead of the "new normal" established recently for Nolasco.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Shields may have some warning signs of decline, but Nolasco is in full-blown decline the last 2 years. There's a huge difference. Heck, even with those warning signs in 2015: - Shields topped 200 innings again for the 9th consecutive season -- Nolasco has only reach that level twice - Shields still posted near MLB SP average run prevention in those innings too (Shields ERA- of 105, MLB SP average of 103-), 8 of 9 seasons at that level or better -- Nolasco again has only posted that level of run prevention twice And of course the career high K rate as you mention, which suggests maybe he's capable of adapting to later career loss in stuff?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Or trading Shields again anytime from 2016-2018. Shields is simply a much better asset right now than Nolasco, and it's not even close. You can't wave away the massive difference in health and performance over the last 2 years, much less performance over their whole careers, just because Shields is one year older, signed one year longer, at a higher AAV.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    San Diego was connected to Rodney, and they have a closer vacancy...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Further thinking, this sounds more like what our rotation situation is and plan should be. We have lots of multi-year commitments in the rotation already, and several young guys who have already arrived (or virtually so, in the case of Berrios). So no big new commitments there is advisable. But our bullpen situation is completely different. I get that you shouldn't dedicate comparable resources to the pen as the rotation, but the Twins are nowhere near that point.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds like last year's plan too... Jepsen and Fien are already veterans on short term deals. Perkins is our only long term bullpen commitment and his deal is pretty modest. No real reason to avoid a FA reliever on a multi year deal this winter.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Speaking personally, yeah. Nothing wrong with 42 year old Hawkins or a 39 year old Rodney to fill out a staff, but that's already the Fien role, probably the Tonkin role, etc. I hope we are aiming higher than that with our Plan A this winter. Remember when we added Jepsen at the deadline, and most people thought we needed another guy like him or better? We're still in that spot, I think.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Matusz isn't a free agent yet, 1 more year of control for Baltimore.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Mark Lowe to Detroit for 2 years, no money details released yet, but this Detroit paper speculates it will be $6-7 mil AAV ($12-14 mil total guarantee). http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2015/12/07/tigers-interest-in-cespedes-seem-unrealistic-despite-reports/76923244/
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the reliever deals do seems to be going high. But reliever salaries are so modest to begin with, it really shouldn't affect our strategy. I mean, the difference between a $15-20 mil contract, and a $20-25 mil contract, spread over 3 years, just isn't that great. And O'Day, Soria, and Madson will quite likely be the top 3. The remaining relievers may see a bump, but I don't expect any to beat Madson's guarantee.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Also signals the Reds are definitely in sell mode, so Todd Frazier will probably dampen any Plouffe market.
×
×
  • Create New...