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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Except in the case of Abad and his salary clause, it's probably a minor league signing in name only, and he's guaranteed to be added to the roster for opening day if healthy. There's a good chance he will be our biggest LHP acquisition this winter.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Chris Young actually already signed a while ago, two year, $13 mil with Boston: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/red-sox-sign-chris-young.html
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you are describing two sides of the same coin. His conservative nature means he is generally loath to commit money or other assets to acquire new players, and that same thing drives his "gambling" on cheap internal or marginal options somehow working out.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, looking back, it seems most all of our past minor league contract signings that were announced with similar clauses (higher than minimum MLB salary if he makes the team, and/or an opt out date), the guys made the team without much trouble as long as they were healthy. I guess on the bright side, I haven't seen similar reports for any of our other minor league contracts this winter (Sweeney, Kintzler, etc.). Still not thrilled with Abad, though.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    That does make it sound like he has a handshake agreement to make the team, like Kubel, etc., unfortunately.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    For the record, the post of yours that prompted the mention of Cervelli (and others) simply asked, "What was Ryan going to do in the last two offseasons to better address the position going forward without selling the farm system?" That bar is, at minimum, having a better complement / Plan B entering 2015 than Pinto, Herrmann, and Fryer. It doesn't take hindsight (or "selling the farm") to clear that threshold of expected contribution. Also for the record, I don't mind the Hicks-Murphy deal now, but that still doesn't excuse the poor planning of a year ago.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Especially the bullpen? Really? They added Jepsen, but Perkins is a bigger question mark. If May is there, that certainly helps, but he was there and Fien was doing well at the end of the season and we still had serious issues...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    That is correct, thus signing with a team in a low-tax state gets you those tax benefits for half your salary (home games). Your offseason home doesn't matter (except for offseason income, endorsements, etc., I suppose).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Last I read, he was "making his home in Mendota Heights" although that was during the 2014 season: http://www.startribune.com/mauers-want-normalcy-as-they-raise-twins-amid-his-celebrity/285972581/ I'm sure he keeps his Florida place, and he also had a place north of the Twin Cities, but I'd guess he's more local now than in his single days, for sure.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The weird thing is that funding for the park was approved back in early 2005, barely into Mauer's second season, and the park opening was set to coincide with Mauer reaching free agency. Yet we didn't sign him to any kind of long-term contract until after his 3rd season when he won a batting title, and then only bought out a single free agent season. His current contract should have been completely unnecessary -- he should have signed a generous, long-term "Twin for life" deal in his early seasons, and then re-upped or extended it a couple years at a time until he retired. I'd love to find out why that didn't happen. Joe doesn't seem like the type that would be unreasonable in his demands, while TR does seem like the type that would fail to resolve something like that in a timely manner...
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, the Cubs owed Sweeney $2 mil upon release (his $1.5 mil salary for 2015, and a $500k buyout on a 2016 option -- I was surprised he was signed for such a long term). The rest of his 2015 story sounds a little like Jason Bartlett circa 2013...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That's my guess too, especially on the pitchers. Kintzler and Abad each have extensive and not altogether terrible recent MLB experience outside the Twins org. In recent history, those guys have made the team much more often than not. Looking back at the 2011-2015 invitee lists, the only such player that didn't make the team appears to be Jason Bulger back in 2012. Meanwhile, such invitees making the team since 2011 include Robinson, Boyer, Kubel, Bartlett, Guerrier (technically they renegotiated his opt-out date and called him up a month later), Burton, and Sean Burroughs. Ryan Sweeney is the only position player to come close to that criteria this year, although he sat out all of 2015 after being released by the Cubs last spring, so it's hard to gauge his chances. He doesn't have the "former Twin" factor of Bartlett to compensate for the lost season, but there does appear to be an opening for backup outfielder.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, non-Sano Twins DHs hit 6 HR last year. The trick at Fangraphs is not to click DH position button (which uses totals of players who "qualify" as DHs), but instead use the drop-down DH split: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2015&month=44&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Still, overall Twins DH's posted a 109 wRC+ last year, 7th in the league. It's far from clear that Park will even match that, much less be an upgrade, although Sano's bat should be an upgrade wherever he plays.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    At the new Vikings stadium, they should commemorate the exact spot where Punto got picked off rounding third to close the book on the Twins Metrodome history. (I understand it wasn't the very last play of the game, but Brendan Harris's groundout to short seems less "commemorable") I wonder if they will commemorate any notable Twins locations there? Home plate (Gladden's run)? Puckett's HR?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    What? Several on this board called for those exact moves. We invested an additional $97 million on the rotation last winter (Hughes extension plus Santana), while only actually adding one pitcher for 2015-2016. It would have been easy to justify $40 mil or even $82 mil to potentially address a position of even greater weakness instead, for a longer period of time, especially if it also meant we wouldn't guarantee $12 mil to Suzuki (thus the net cost of Montero or Martin would have only been 3/28 mil or 5/70 mil respectively). Not to mention targeting a capable backup (not unlike Murphy in that regard) in Cervelli, Castillo, etc. as Suzuki insurance, if not partner or replacement. Catcher is a tough position to fill because you generally can't shift players to it, but when you have a void, it's difficult to capably fill any position externally. Still, you have to try. Ultimately, I would have been fine with Suzuki at 2/15 or 2/18 or whatever, or AJ, or Suzuki at 2/12 plus a veteran backup (like Suzuki circa 2014) if I believed we had put forth our best effort to address the position. The timing of the Suzuki extension and our inactivity that followed at the position, as other catchers changed hands and we spent further on the rotation, suggests that we did not put forth our best effort to address catcher in 2014-2015. I tend to think it was over-rating the familiarly of Suzuki, although misreading the market, mis-prioritizing a Hughes extension, etc. were other potential factors.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    No disagreements there, Doc. Except it's not so much impatience as comparing unfavorably to our past offseason plans -- the burden of proof was on TR to show that this winter should be different from the others, and so far it hasn't really happened, particularly in the pen.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    So the 2012 White Sox and the 2010 Twins were both contenders, but older teams with weak-ish farm systems? The following years (2013 White Sox and 2011 Twins), both teams bottomed out at 99 losses. The White Sox sold their best veteran trade asset as soon as they fell out of the race that summer (Peavy) for 2 good prospects. (To be fair, the Twins didn't really have any good veteran trade assets that year.) The next two years, the 2014-2015 White Sox didn't exactly compete but managed to hang near .500 and within striking distance of the second wild card if not the division up to the trade deadline, while finding and locking up 4 stars through 2020 or so. Meanwhile, the 2012-2013 Twins lost 96 games each year, plus a 92 loss season in 2014, never quite staying within 5 games of a playoff spot by late July. They didn't really find and lock up any stars in this time period. They did manage to compete in 2015, for the first time in their 5th season post-2010. I don't dislike the Twins approach or current position, but I don't see how it's notably better than that of the White Sox. Both teams have done some good but mostly bad in free agency. What the Sox have lacked in filling out their the farm system compared to the Twins, they seem to have made up with those stars and extensions and not quite falling into extended irrelevance, which has value too. Put another way, I'd probably complain equally today as a Sox fan as I do as a Twins fan.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, what specifically should they have done otherwise? After 2012, they had precious few valuable assets to restock their farm system -- Sale at that point had only one year as a starter, and instead of trading him, they signed him to an incredibly team-friendly extension buying out 3 free agent years (through 2019). Quintana has been a step down from Sale but very good, but he probably didn't have much trade value until after 2013, his second season -- at which point, they signed him to an incredibly team-friendly extension buying out 2 free agent seasons (through 2020). They didn't sign Abreu until before the 2014 season, and he's controlled through 2019 too. And in the meantime, they extended Jake Peavy then flipped him for 2 good prospects in Montas and Garcia, and flipped Hector Santiago for Adam Eaton (and again signed him to a nice extension, buying out 3 free agent years through 2021, notice a pattern there?). The idea that they've passed on rebuilding opportunities that would clearly have them in a better position today going forward just isn't supported by any facts. Like all teams, they've made mistakes, obviously, and they're not a perfect team in a perfect position, but few teams ever are. The fact is, despite a weak farm system coming out of 2012, in 2013-2014 they found and locked up multiple stars on team-friendly deals through 2020 or so -- that's almost certainly a better result for that franchise than a non-specific suggestion to undertake a "full-on rebuild" those years.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but better than the worst K/9 bullpen in baseball 4 of the last 5 years is a pretty low bar to clear. I prefer league average. Among relievers with 20 or more innings, Abad's K/9 rank was #142 in 2014, and #133 in 2015. Back in 2007, Guerrier and Sean Henn (remember him?) tied for #144. Early career Crain ranked around there too. Another Twins reference, way back in 1991, was Carl Willis at #130. Guys with that rank need to offer a lot beyond K/9, or improve their K/9, to be effective relievers. That's not scoffing at the K/9, that's just a fact.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Abad has actually had reverse splits the last 3 years, although he still managed to be effective vs. LHB in 2014 (just more effective vs. RHB). As you can see from my post above, he's actually been really bad vs LHB for the bulk of his career.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    That is way, way better (although to be fair, I was focused on discussing his performance rather than making a joke, which was probably a mistake ).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you update that by era? 10 years ago, reliever K/9 average was around 7. The last 4 years, it's been around 8.4. That's Abad's peak so far, he hasn't even had the spikes to 9 or 10 like Burton, Fien, etc. I wouldn't scoff at a league average reliever K/9 as part of an overall strong performance, like Guerrier circa 2007, but the strikeouts probably aren't the driver of such performance. Obviously I know Abad isn't perfect or he wouldn't be a minor league signing, just try to put his past peak/upside into proper perspective.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    See my post above -- I wouldn't use Abad as an example of anything other than perhaps fringe relievers. Outside of that one season, his track record is very poor. The relievers getting multi-year deals almost all have much longer track records of solid MLB performance. Zach Duke is probably the closest comparable, although unlike Abad he was a recent conversion to short relief and was coming off an 11.4 K/9 performance (vs. Abad's below league average 8.0 that same year). Also, the reason Abad was a free agent this winter is that Oakland non-tendered him, rather than pay him an estimated $1.5 million in arbitration. He has 2 years of team control remaining.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Abad, not bad at all. But seriously, he does appear to have more upside than our other recent minor league signings, although I would caution that a ~8 K/9 (Abad's MLB peak thus far) isn't all that great from a reliever these days, especially not lefty specialist. The league's relievers as a whole posted a K/9 of 8.4 last year, so Abad has been average or below his whole career, despite presumably favorable match ups. Also, Abad, despite being a lefty, has actually been terrible vs. LHB outside of 2014. Here are LHB wOBA figures vs Abad the last 4 years: .337, .346, .249, .364 For comparison, league average for ALL pitchers vs LHB last year was .318. O'Rourke last year as a rookie was .261 vs. LHB (and even .321 vs RHB). Duensing was .346 last year, the worst mark of his career. Bastardo career is .270. And Abad hasn't seen any high-leverage work outside 2014 either. gmLI the last 4 years: 0.69, 0.60, 1.12, 0.72. That's comparable to O'Rourke and Stauffer in 2015, or Guerrier in 2014, etc. If we don't acquire a MLB FA LHP, and Abad manages to push O'Rourke and/or Rogers to AAA for opening day, this will be bad.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Was May's back trouble last year blamed somewhat on his reliever routine? Maybe that's coming from the player and his perspective is skewed on it, but he often wasn't available down the stretch. Maybe that will get better, but it suggests he might be more limited in the pen than we would like from our potential bullpen ace.
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