Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know. Obviously pre-FA deals favor ownership in a lopsided way over players. And to some degree, baseball history since the 1970's has shown a gradual favoring of players over ownership in free agency. Wouldn't surprise me if opt-outs were the latest part of that. I don't think it's necessarily lopsided, but it's there whether the teams like it or not.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    But in that scenario, the player just completed 3 exceptional years. The likelihood of him falling of the table the very next year is slim. Such downside risk would be very minimal throughout any 3 year contract coming off of 3 exceptional years, I would think. The Dodgers would have gladly resigned Greinke for 3/84 or whatever this winter if possible, actually they probably tried to offer him much more than that and lost out. They weren't smartly saving $10 mil and netting a comp pick, while escaping from some great year 4-6 downside risk. Frankly, I think the Dodgers were a little surprised themselves that Greinke performed as well as he did in LA. The benefit is, they get the player. These opt outs are so common now (Ian Kennedy!) and so extreme (Cespedes after 1 year!) that it's almost becoming a non-negotiable demand from the player. Obviously I'm not crying for any teams here, just trying to lay out the facts. If I were the teams, I'd try to be pretty aggressive in paying up front to avoid opt outs, for elite talent, anyway -- guys I'd love to have through age 34 like Greinke but might prefer not to extend through age 37 if I can help it. But that cat may be out of the bag now.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Stauffer lasted over 2 months, and it took an epically bad performance to get him released that quickly. Jordan Schafer too. Similar for Jason Marquis back in 2012. Not sure if that's a plus for the team. And the weird thing about Boyer is, his 2015 performance was basically best-case scenario. And ultimately, it didn't help us at all, either down the stretch in 2015 or going forward. I don't like those kind of deals, even if the Twins are wise enough not to re-sign him. Abad doesn't look much better. He has one extra season of potential team control, but that's just as likely to be a negative as a positive.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, and those kind of "Twins guys" weren't all that useful to begin with (or only very briefly useful to us). I don't think Plouffe falls in that group yet, and the fact they haven't extended him yet is a very good sign.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, in the Greinke case, they got 3 years of an exceptional player. But even without the opt out, they would have gotten those same 3 years, plus they would now have that exceptional player effectively signed to a nice short term contract. And either way, they were stuck paying him the full 6 years if he got hurt or didn't perform. If the opt out discount is really just ~5% as suggested by some, it's really not worth it for teams signing elite talent, I don't think. But it's such a trend now, maybe players are pegging the discount much higher (i.e. saying "it would take 15-20% more than this to get me to waive my opt out demand").
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about that, the Twins were pretty smart with Koskie, Jones, etc. I could see them making a qualifying offer to Plouffe after 2017 and either keeping him another year or letting him walk.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I had to look it up, but sure enough, Boyer at 47% inherited runners scored was well above league average (30%). If those "extra" inherited runners scored were added to his ERA, he'd be up to 3.32 ERA. Oh, and if he had the same percentage of "unearned" runs allowed as other Twins pitchers, he'd be up to 3.88 ERA (~107 ERA+ rather than his actual 167). Still, I don't think that's the reason Boyer is out of a job so far this winter. It's the fact that even when he has performed decently the past 2 years, his teams still haven't really trusted him in an important role for an extended period. That feels a lot like Abad's upside here too.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    And I have no problem with paying or even over-paying to be risk averse sometimes. Actually, signing a FA reliever this winter would have been paying to be risk averse -- there's a lot of risk to be mitigated in the current Twins 2016-2017 bullpen picture, especially for a team with legit contention aspirations. The Twins too often sit out the market waiting for a bargain, though, or are too eager to try avoiding the market entirely (Suzuki and Hughes extensions). The market can still yield valuable players on fair contracts, perhaps better than what you already have.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Career 99 ERA+ starter posting a 104 (Santana), or a career 88 ERA+ starter posting a 97 (Pelfrey) doesn't need that complicated of an explanation.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    ERA+ is a nice shortcut, but it doesn't tell the whole story, especially for relievers. Among these three, Abad has seen the lowest leverage work, has the worst K rate, the worst performance vs LHB, etc. Sipp and Bastardo also had good seasons earlier in their career, and excellent playoff performances too. (I guess Abad did retire the only batter he faced in the 2014 wild card game. ) By ERA+ the last 3 seasons, Duensing has been 103, 118, and 98. Why not just bring him back too? There's a reason that Sipp and Bastardo got $6 mil for 2016, Duensing is still a FA, and Abad got cut instead of getting an estimated $1.5 mil in arbitration. Marginal wins are very important to teams that want to compete, which hopefully should include the Twins coming off an 83 win season in a wide open division.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Wouldn't they have liked to have Greinke on a 3/84 deal right now, though? (That's 3/74 that was remaining on his deal, plus $10 mil as an assumed "discount" that the got for the opt out, although that would have been spread over all 6 years.) That's probably more valuable to them than the comp pick. And they certainly didn't need to shed Greinke to guarantee $25 mil to Maeda. Perhaps without the looming opt out, the Dodger could have been less aggressive last offseason in signing Brandon McCarthy?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana was playing a much more valuable position at the time, as evidenced by his much higher salary and guarantee. Of course past PED use and future suspension likelihood is a factor, just like a lot of other factors. It's just not that big of a factor when signing a guy to a 2/12 contract. The whole argument in favor of that deal around here has been its low risk -- it doesn't become notably riskier if there is a very slim chance a player could miss half of the deal unpaid. Also, FYI, such a suspension can only affect one postseason. Jennry Mejia of the Mets will be eligible for the 2016 postseason, despite being suspended for 162 games beginning midseason 2015.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Doesn't "30-year-old relievers... who aren't good enough to be a part of the solution, but not bad enough to lose their jobs" describe Abad perfectly, though? He just turned 30, and his stats absolutely scream this. Career 105 ERA+ in mostly low leverage work -- even last year, he was at 97 ERA+ despite his troubles. In terms of ERA+, almost the spitting image of Brian Duensing who was the poster boy for "not good enough, but not bad enough". Technically Abad is on a minor league deal, but likely in name only as the Twins sort out their 40-man roster this spring before adding him. It's not all that different than bringing back Duensing at a reduced rate, is it? I would think Abad is another strong data point suggesting the bullpen isn't going to get sorted out how you hope in 2016.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Further on this: given that the Twins apparently passed on Lowe (no reports of pursuing him or a similar pitcher, and he signed relatively quickly and reasonably with an AL Central competitor that finished behind us last year), I'm not confident we'll see prudent bullpen moves going forward, even if we "starve the beast."
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, it was the $11-12 mil over two years kind of reliever that was the big issue with me, earlier in the offseason.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Glad to hear it. Keep in mind most of us were advocating for Lowe and similar commitments/talents earlier this winter. I don't think anyone's Plan A was Neal Cotts or whatever is left now.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Starve the beast, eh? I get it, but it's just so speculative at this point. You're waiting for a leopard to change his spots. Signing a FA reliever on the modest scale of Lowe or Bastardo is arguably less of a change of spots (so, more likely), and could obviously have been performed immediately, no waiting required. Heck, we could successfully starve the beast to change his spots, have them prepared to promote the youngsters, just to have too few youngsters healthy and ready to answer the call in 2016-2017.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Mark Lowe?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but obviously both Sipp and Bastardo have had more success, more recent success, and better tools/components than Abad. They're don't offer equivalent upside or downside risk, no matter how much no player is a sure thing. Low ceiling? Lowe and Bastardo are both coming off a 10.0 K/9 and solid playoff performances. This team thought twice about promoting guys like Rogers over Aaron Thompson among others last year. I'd rather see a better Plan A now than hope they change their philosophy about when to go to Plan B down the road.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I would have really liked to find out what Rogers in particular could offer our pen last year, but it didn't happen. It wasn't guys like Bastardo or Lowe blocking that, it was apparently Aaron Thompson, AJ Achter, Logan Darnell, innings for JR Graham, etc. I don't have any particular interest in finding out how much we can "fix" Abad for up to 2 arbitration seasons.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Not only that, but the Twins are starting for a baseline of "mediocre pen." We'll need minor leaguers to step up just to offset departures and maintain that over the next few years. If we want to have a serious shot at a good or even excellent pen one of these years, it would probably help to add high-ceiling talent in whatever way possible. FA, promotions, even trades. Probably not trying to "fix" Abad...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I seem to recall back in 2009, Dave St Peter was on record predicting an extra ~$25 mil from Target Field suite revenue alone in 2010. Can't find a link for that now (I feel like it was discussed at ballparkmagic.com), but it seems about right, given that Target Field in total gave them an estimated $50-70 mil extra revenue that year (which would probably include general ticket sales, merchandise, concessions, sponsorships, etc.): http://www.mprnews.org/story/2010/10/08/twins-ballpark-finance
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Another embed attempt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0pewqF8POE
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Those suspensions are unpaid, so I doubt it was a factor. If Bastardo gets suspended, the Mets would effectively have him on a 1/6 contract for one of the next two seasons, roughly the same as our current commitment to Jepsen (and without having to give up prospects to acquire him too).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you think the Twins minor league system will produce at least 4 MLB quality relievers by opening day 2017? Not only do the Twins easily have an opening or two right now, but Jepsen is a FA after 2016 and Fien will likely be too expensive for a "6th inning guy." And that's not even addressing Perkins or May, who have question marks themselves. I actually don't mind having confidence in youngsters, etc., but the excuse that the Twins don't have the flexibility to add a reliever on TWO YEAR CONTRACT is completely without basis in reality. Also, even with your one year contract limit, Benoit and K Rod (2017 team option) were salary dumps on one year contracts. Storen and Chapman were on one-year contracts. Lowe and Bastardo each signed 2 year deals that are largely the same as if we were somehow able to get an extra arbitration season out of Jepsen in 2017.
×
×
  • Create New...