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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Was "the word" about Sano's imminent return passed to Reusse without anyone actually checking with Sano himself? Was the "Twins official" on MLB Network misinformed or confused? Without context and dates, it's not even clear there was any real miscommunication or confusion. Seems like a pretty specious basis for an article.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I am sure that other teams do it too, and that's fine if your team knows where to draw the line regardless. The Bartlett one still boggles the mind. It wasn't even a mandatory opt out (for free agents with 6+ years MLB service time who finish out their previous MLB deal and sign a minor league deal) -- we actually negotiated a March 30 opt out for a guy who was terrible in 2011-2012, injured in May 2012, released in August 2012, and sat out all of 2013. (And TR signed that deal with the opt out, even if Rob Antony was technically in charge when he was added to the roster.) Then when he got injured and asked to retire a couple weeks into the season, we asked him to think about it over the weekend first, instead of freeing up the roster spot right away... I think I should be forgiven for being a little gun-shy about such deals and promises. Thankfully they seem to have handled Sweeney and now Quentin just fine.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Ad behind home plate for "LaRoche College", so it sounds like Adam plans to bring a lot more kids with him to his next job.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Did Nolasco really step up, though? Other than that post-Cuba trip game vs the Rays? For what it's worth, Nolasco's "OppQual" mark at B-Ref is 8.1, while our other 4 RH starter candidates are all 8.7-8.9, probably thanks to that Rays game.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I have no problem with not giving Duffey a rotation spot. Just pointing out that contrary to what Paul Molitor said, it did not take anything "fairly significant" to keep Duffey out of the rotation.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. And another data point suggesting Nolasco/Duffey starting on the same days this spring, between Gibson and Milone, was no accident.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That's hardly the same thing as "his spot to lose." Tyler Duffey in 2015 was by far the Twins best starter in terms of run prevention. Yeah, kid, just do that again this spring, and you'll be fine. They've had years to evaluate Tonkin, kicking the can down the road another 6 weeks is worth very little now (especially if you think there is even a can to be kicked). Burdi, Chargois, and Reed did not have any real chance to compete this spring -- 3-4 innings each, against an average of AA competition or worse.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I kinda missed it, but didn't catcher Murphy kinda miss the tag on Jaso at the plate? In any case, maybe Duffey makes the team as long as Joyce doesn't.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say it mattered in terms of skipping starts. I said it mattered in calculating Nolasco's odds all along.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. But past experience indicates that it doesn't take that kind of resume to leverage the Twins into giving you a roster spot. I'd prefer our minor league contracts with a June 1st opt out (or no opt out, in the case of Sweeney), to not come with side promises that effectively moves that date up by 2+ months, increasing the likelihood of future Bartlett/Kubel/Guerrier situations.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Absent something tangible (and one of two healthy pitchers being "more ready" at the start of March isn't tangible), I think they still line up these guys according to competitions and how they see them opening the season. Starting pitchers are extreme creatures of habit, and they aren't going to want to mess with their schedules even in March without a good reason. I posted earlier this spring that they basically lined them up to open Santana-Hughes/May-Gibson-Nolasco/Duffey-Milone. That was no accident. Probably the only way May was making the rotation was one of the top 3 being injured, as well as one of the last 3. The only way Duffey was making it was if he excelled and/or Nolasco or Milone stunk up the joint.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Given how he retired suddenly last May, then came back this winter, only to ask for release this spring so he could probably retire again, I am getting the sense that Quentin wanted to go out on his own terms, then wanted to play as long as a team gave him an opportunity, and now wants that opportunity to come on his own terms. I liked him as low-cost bat upside, but had he hung around, I could see him being more trouble than he is worth.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Why didn't he just have a March 28 opt out date? Why bother negotiating a June 1st opt out? While I have no problem honoring a gentleman's agreement to ignore the terms of the contract, I feel like these kind of things set a bad precedent for future minor league signees to use as leverage.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, they don't draw the names out of a hat. There is obviously plenty of time to adjust, but I think they'd try to open with the rotation they expect barring some obvious factor like injury etc.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, they could have made that decision without precluding DH from being an option for Sano for the immediate future. (As well as 3B, where Sano has apparently been ruled out of even backup duty.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I too am a bit surprised the Escobar got the pessimistic projection from Seth. Escobar had a below league-average K% last year, and an exactly league average BABIP (for non-pitchers). He's exactly the kind of guy you could project to maintain his batting average, or perhaps even improve it slightly, but Seth has him predicted for a fall, and guys like Rosario and Dozer predicted for a big jump.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, it's possible. Of course, there are also players who keep themselves in great shape whose careers peter out from ages 32-34. And Hrbek actually retired before his career petered out very far, which suggests that he could have extended his career even in his physically diminished state but chose not to, which further suggests his desire and motivation to keep playing were probably bigger factors for him (and those some factors probably influenced his decisions not to stay in better playing shape).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it was truly Duffey's to lose, especially if you are including such apparently weak factors as "keeping one more reliever" from the uninspiring group of Tonkin, Kintzler, O'Rourke, etc. Molitor said it would take something "fairly significant" for him not to be in the rotation, and while Duffey hasn't performed that great pending today's results, it's pretty clear that nothing "fairly significant" or unexpected has happened. I think the talk of Duffey having a spot, for him to lose, was pretty much just lip-service, maybe to make him feel more comfortable, reward him for his 2015 contributions, and/or to motivate Nolasco and Milone. They essentially kept May in the rotation hunt for the same purposes, it wouldn't be shocking if they did the same for Duffey one rung up the ladder.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but do you think they will? I bet Nolasco is the nominal "4th starter".
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, last season should be pretty important, as it represents the only time he's ever faced AAA and MLB pitchers. And he had a .192 ISO last year, a mark he hadn't approached since A-ball. To project him at .175 (second highest mark since A-ball) seems to be based a lot on last season, so why wouldn't we put equal importance on last season's K and BB rates? Arcia saw his K rate jump and his BB rate fall when he reached MLB too. It's a darn tough adjustment, and sometimes guys come out of it looking like very different players (remember when Arcia was thought of as a high-average hitter?). And we've got a full season of evidence suggesting that will happen to Rosario too, and no evidence as of yet that he is going to revert to his pre-2014 minor league forms, judging by his monthly splits last year (and 6 K's vs zero walks this spring too, for what it's worth.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I generally get this, but for elite talents at seeing and hitting a pitch (or throwing a wicked pitch, if we're talking pitchers), those talents aren't correlated much with physical fitness. Sure, it can help you stay on the field, but so can knowing your limits and not exerting yourself when you don't have to. Sano is not in any real danger of being replaced by hungry minor league players. Obviously the equation changes if we're talking about a lesser natural hitting talent (or if we go beyond physical fitness and add substance abuse to the equation, although some talents have even survived that). It's like actors. Plenty of actors stay in great shape, it's a good way to land some roles, but plenty of great ones don't give a darn about their shape and still get plenty of roles and do a fantastic job. I'm not vexed by a star baseball slugger or pitcher having a beer gut any more than I was about Philip Seymour Hoffman's (may he rest in peace). Down the spectrum, someone like Arcia who is young with low career earnings, yeah I would be vexed if he didn't stay in shape. But he apparently did this winter, and probably wasn't ever in too bad of shape relative to his peers to begin with.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't like that line of reasoning. In his age 22 rookie season, Hrbek played 140 games with a 128 OPS+. Over the next 9 seasons, he averaged 141 games played with a 133 OPS+. Then his career petered out a bit from ages 32-34 and he retired. Not everybody improves in a predictable linear fashion throughout their career. The idea that with more exercise, Hrbek could have been a 150 OPS+ hitter at his peak, or a 162 games played kind of guy, that's just not supportable by any facts or reasoning. Heck, Hrbek did play 158 games one year, and posted his lowest full season OPS+ until his retirement year.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. And I don't think they would let Nolasco lose the job on a minor league start. Barring injury, I think he's got the MLB spot, Duffey will go to AAA, and Nolasco could have one more tune-up Friday vs. Washington. Also of note, it's set up so that Nolasco will be the 4th starter, and Milone the 5th. That's been the order since spring training began, so I sense that Nolasco always had a better chance at the spot than they were letting on in their comments about Duffey (who probably should have followed Milone given his limited MLB resume).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed that Milone has a pretty high floor, but last year he was demoted after 4 turns with a 4.76 ERA. And after coming off the DL in August, he had a 4.79 over the next month and got skipped a turn. And of course we all remember how Oakland demoted him in July 2014 with a 3.55 ERA on the season (16 starts). For whatever reason, Milone historically hasn't gotten as much leash as one would expect given his fairly steady, "high floor" performance. Maybe that changes now that he is out of minor league options and making $4.5 mil? Although for the Twins to demote him last year making $2.8 mil, that was a pretty big deal...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps, but this club demoted a healthy Milone to AAA last year in favor of a less-seasoned RH in May. And he was sort of on the bubble with Pelfrey down the stretch, getting skipped for a turn. And he was the only lefty starter on our club at that time too. Not to mention Oakland likewise demoting him in 2014 and selling low on him. I agree he was pretty much guaranteed a spot this spring, but I don't think he's as entrenched as Hughes or Gibson, despite being a left-hander.
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