Otto von Ballpark

Is it time we put this conspiracy theory to rest? The Red Sox have steadily been getting bad PR for as long as they've entertained trading Betts, so nothing about the initial fan/media reaction to the trade was unexpected. Then they actually got *worse* PR in Boston once they delayed the deal over Graterol's medicals. Finally, once Graterol was officially off the table for them, they turned around and immediately completed a reconfigured deal, in return for arguably the same prospect value as pre-medicals Graterol seemed to have, which seems to prove they weren't in fact trying to backtrack the whole deal. Occam's Razor would suggest they really did see something in Graterol's medicals that they were unaware of before, and that it downgraded his value in their eyes more than, say, throwing in Luke Raley would have made up for. And it's a subjective evaluation by definition, so it's also not unexpected that the Twins and Dodgers apparently disagreed.

This seems like a solution in search of a problem. In other words, I expect to hear Manfred is considering it very soon!

Brian O'Halloran? The guy from "Clerks"?

I mean, none of us have the Twins tax returns, if that's what you're after. But Forbes seems like the most educated guess of all, and they had the Twins at $269 mil revenue for 2018, and almost certainly higher now: https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#header:revenue_sortreverse:true And Cot's has the Twins at $135 mil payroll for 2020, as commonly defined (current year MLB player salaries): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXhMYkMxJE1VJvZiNMS1X7OHPFNaIVUjd-m1ZBCzHL4/edit#gid=1520401900

Selling a draft pick and getting a low minors catcher back is what we did in the Phil Hughes to the Padres trade too...

I'm pretty sure the Twins front office kept Graterol informed of his status and the stages of the trade process, so he didn't start house-hunting in Boston or anything. And as a player with minor league options, he likely still has no idea what city he'll be living in or what team he'll be playing for. For that matter, many players regularly have their "medical information debated across the internet" at least as much as Graterol. Nothing private or sensitive was revealed, just one team's vague interpretation of said medical information. The same seems to get communicated and discussed about other players all the time. I doubt that Graterol cares that some Boston columnist referred to him as "damaged goods" in order to criticize the Red Sox front office.

I honestly would like to know if there was a report I missed, attributing another reason to Boston for the hold-up beyond the starting workload thing.

I'm curious -- do you have a link for whatever was attributed to Boston that they allegedly walked back with the starting workload thing? I may have missed something, but to me, it seemed like the starting workload thing was the only reason ever given. And Boston got ripped for it because it was too vague (the whole "that's obvious, they should have already known that" argument). Beyond that, I'm not sure why we're attributing the leaks to Boston. They didn't help Boston. Heyman was definitely citing sources outside of Boston in his reporting, and that was where most of the updates were coming from. The whole "Boston is leaking this" assumption seems to have its roots in the "Boston has cold feet" / "Boston is making this up to rip us off" takes. That was definitely coming from sources outside Boston, and I'm not sure how accurate it was. There were also reports that Boston asked about Balazovic in place of Graterol, and it wouldn't surprise me if lines were crossed by that point. Boston ultimately did not require two top 10 prospects from the Dodgers the very next day, for what it's worth. How much control do you think Boston had over the process here? There were at least 3 teams involved (probably 4 if you count the Angels and their related trade, whose owner became pretty vocal about it). National media. The biggest agent in sports and his favorite media member. The idea that there could be any kind of delay in this blockbuster trade, and Boston alone could make sure the whole process was handled like any random HIPAA records issue, seems to be an unfair assumption.

You do realize Bailey had an ERA north of 6 (SIX!) in 2018 too -- with more starts and innings that year than Perez. (Plus Bailey was north of 6 ERA in 2016-2017 partial seasons as well.) Career wise, they are not that far apart, overall. But Bailey is on a better trend after 2019, so I like him better going into 2020 even though he's older.

I have no qualms with disliking the Red Sox, but any evaluation of Graterol's medicals is going to be subjective, and teams won't necessarily agree. The Red Sox no more "lied" in this process than, for example, if the Twins and Rangers had different health forecasts for Kyle Gibson this offseason, or the Twins and Athletics had different health forecasts for Dakota Chalmers in August 2018, etc.

This is an incorrect assertion about what is contained in player's medical record. Not just every exam, but every interaction with training staff, every treatment recommended by staff, the results of monitoring those treatments, etc. I've linked this a billion times already, but it's a very good explanation of the process: “How baseball teams exchange medical information, and what it means for the Mookie Betts trade” https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2020/02/06/how-baseball-teams-exchange-medical-information-after-agreeing-trade/Nu56T96T3GENiqQQs0amZN/story.html?outputType=amp

I'm curious, how exactly do you think it was handled poorly? If it's about the timing (agreement in principle before medical review), that's just standard procedure in MLB. If it's that the trade agreement leaked in general, it's pretty unrealistic to expect otherwise for a trade of this magnitude. (And there's no evidence that suggests the Red Sox were the primary leakers of that, or any of the later developments.) And if you're referring to Graterol's privacy, I thought what leaked about him was pretty generic and respectful. (The Red Sox were actually criticized by many because their reported concerns weren't specific enough, and as I said above, it's not even clear that the Red Sox were responsible for that particular leak.) I'm not sure what folks expected the Red Sox or anyone in this trade to do otherwise.

Do we really know that it "took a toll" on Graterol? I guess it was revealed that one team expressed skepticism about his medicals, which might be weird but hardly surprising. No real details were leaked about those medicals. Being traded in general is probably a bit of a weird experience, especially the first time, but I wouldn't necessarily describe it as "taking a toll". On the positive side, Graterol saw that two powerhouse organizations were both interested in his services, which might be a bit of an ego boost. Also, I'm guessing it was more chaos among media and fans than with the teams and players. The Twins likely informed Graterol of the deal when it was first announced and kept him updated on the process. The process wasn't even that long when you think about it -- yes, longer than the average trade, but it appears the teams agreed in principle on Tuesday evening, spent Wednesday reviewing medicals, Thursday and Friday renegotiating based on those medicals, Saturday the original configuration of the deal was abandoned, then on Sunday all parties came to new agreements. Considering it's still technically the offseason, that's hardly an egregious timeline.

Worth keeping in mind that the draft pick is probably worth more than $4.1 mil. Those Fangraphs value estimates don't take into account that only a few picks can be traded, which effectively makes those picks more valuable relative to the non-tradable picks. That's how we effectively got $7.25 mil from the Padres for the #74 pick in the Hughes trade of 2018. I'd guess that we could assign a similar value to the #67 pick in this trade, with the rest of the $10 million being for Raley (less the value of whatever prospect we may still receive).

I suspect Boston wanted a pitcher, and Graterol was still the best one available to them. That's why they still wanted him in the deal, even at reduced value. Now that the Betts trade is going through, does the "Boston has cold feet" thing really make sense anymore?

1. A player's medical report is very comprehensive. Sorry I've linked this a million times already, but it's basically every exam, every interaction with trainers, every treatment recommended, and the results of those treatments. It's absolutely possible that some data in there would shift their original forecast for Graterol, as compared to the publicly available information: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2020/02/06/how-baseball-teams-exchange-medical-information-after-agreeing-trade/Nu56T96T3GENiqQQs0amZN/story.html?outputType=amp The fact that the Twins were willing to deal Graterol for Maeda suggests that there's some pessimistic non-public info on Graterol. Perhaps this should have been a hint to the Red Sox, although the extent of it may not have been known. And of course the nature of such analysis is going to be subjective -- not every team or trainer is going to look at the medical report and agree on the same forecast for the player. For example, the Twins may have given him 30% odds of returning to starting and conveyed that to the Red Sox during negotiations, but after the medical review, the Red Sox independently may have thought it more like 10%. Rumor suggests that the Red Sox did request Balazovic in place of Graterol, and the Twins declined. I'm sure they asked about Dodgers pitching prospects earlier in the process too and were rebuffed, hence how the Twins and Maeda got involved in the first place. Graterol is still a good pitcher with value. The Red Sox likely wanted a young pitching component to the trade, and it seems that Graterol was probably still the best young pitcher the Red Sox could feasibly get, even if it his forecast value wasn't as high to them after the medical review.

A player's medical report would include that, and more. Basically every interaction he's had with the training staff. The results of every medical exam. Every treatment that staff recommended and tried, and the follow-up analysis of those treatments. I've recommended this article a few times already, it's a very good read on the subject: “How baseball teams exchange medical information, and what it means for the Mookie Betts trade” https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2020/02/06/how-baseball-teams-exchange-medical-information-after-agreeing-trade/Nu56T96T3GENiqQQs0amZN/story.html?outputType=amp

I would guess Graterol’s shoulder was responding differently to short stints vs longer outings. Every sport has sprint vs endurance type concerns.

As an ex-Ray, he may not be aware that fans exist at all.

FWIW, there is some more recent activity and discussion in the forum thread here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/36318-boston-getting-cold-feet-graterols-health-puts-blockbuster-on-pause/page-6

Nothing is finalized yet. And I'm guessing all parts of the deal / related deals will be finalized at the same time.

I think it's important not to look at this as a binary situation, like he was 100% destined to be a reliever and the Red Sox should have already known that. Yes, the Twins had said they were going to use Graterol in relief this spring, and we all know his general history. But their stated concerns about his workload and his throwing motion are not that unusual for young pitchers. If that was primarily what was expressed and understood during negotiations with the Red Sox, perhaps they gave him, say, a 30% chance of increasing his workload toward starting again in the foreseeable future. But after seeing the medicals -- what exactly was found in Graterol's shoulder impingement exam last year, and perhaps more importantly, what treatments the Twins pursued and how Graterol's shoulder responded -- maybe the Red Sox saw a notably reduced chance to increase his workload in the foreseeable future (maybe 10%?). Enough to at least pause the trade process while they consider their options. (If the situation was reversed, I think we'd all want our Twins to do the same.) So it doesn't necessarily take any failures or bad actors to lead to where we are now.

The innings thing is likely an over-simplification of Boston’s specific concerns about his medicals. There could be something in the medicals that tells Boston there is no path to Graterol *ever* throwing 150 IP in a season (meaning, never going back to starting again).

I don't think it matters how it was reported. If nothing is official, any team can back out (and the Dodgers-Twins agreement could have been contingent on the Dodgers-Red Sox agreement, and vice-versa, if they're not actually considered part of a single, 3-way trade with the league office).

Teams don't hand over medicals on their players just because another team expresses interest. They need to know the other team is serious before handing over that valuable private information, and they do this by unofficially "agreeing in principle" to the trade first, pending medical review. Note that no official trade agreement was ever announced here.