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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, my bad, I misread it! I guess I don't think of them as "four out saves" as much as "eighth inning entrances" so the number 4 just jumped out at me more. My apologies. The linked article is pretty subjective, but they lay out some strong evidence that Colome and Jansen have been used more aggressively than Kintzler, and possibly Kimbrel too (although that is a small enough difference as to be opportunity-driven?). And I still think you are over-rating the Duffey factor -- he's pretty much been used like you would expect a starter would be used in his first (non-demotion) bullpen deployment. Not in highest leverage, with almost half of his appearances coming in games when his team was already trailing. Slightly longer outings than normal, but he's only 41st in MLB in relief innings. A bunch of guys (~15) ahead of him on that list are averaging similar or more innings per appearance too. Nothing about his usage strikes me as particularly innovative for 2017, even though his performance has definitely been appreciated. How many teams have a guy like Duffey in their pen right now?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    It's the slugging. Murphy actually leads Rochester in isolated power at the moment, ahead of Garver and even Palka and Vargas. It's not worth shaking up the MLB roster for him yet, but it's nice to see some signs of life in Murphy after his 2016 season.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Even so, can some teams hit more on those late rounders?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    No need to start with Melo just because he's on the 40-man. Wilk likely has to go anyway to make room on the 25-man, which also clears an easy 40-man spot. And please let's not wait for Chargois! He's not even back to pitching in game action yet, and will need some time to get straightened out (or even just stretched out after a couple months of inactivity).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I peg Duffey as probably a ~115 ERA+ reliever, which isn't bad but it's not exactly a bullpen weapon. Which is why I've been advocating for Duffey to get stretched out for rotation work again. We need at least one more starter, perhaps two (for Hughes), and if Duffey could even turn in league-average starting work, that would be of significant value. Looking at other relievers in Duffey's spot in the pen would have value too -- we need to start trying to identify guys that can help at the top.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    The 40-man shouldn't be a limiting factor. In the last month, we've added Tepesch, Rucinski, and Wilk. Plus Boshers has been passed over for all of those guys. And if you're promoting guys from AA too, there will be plenty of options to take their places at AAA if they are claimed. (Turley and Wimmers both got bumped to AA right now because there are too many pitchers in Rochester!) And if things go bad and you need mediocre competence, we've got Tonkin and Chapman parked at AAA, a RHP and a LHP both with fairly extensive MLB experience. I think you could safely drop Wilk right now and start the carousel with Hildenberger or Burdi -- those guys are on track to need 40-man spots this winter anyway. Move some guys up to AAA (from among Turley, Bard, Curtiss, Van Steensel) and down to AA (Wheeler, Boshers) too, so you get a little more data about who could be next in line, when you are ready to cut Tepesch, Rucinski, or Boshers.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not seeing too much of a case for a few of those guys. Palka's K's are down, but so is his generally offensive effectiveness: his wRC+ at AAA in 101, his ISO less than either Garver's and Murphy's so far. I'd guess he might be making something of a case for being dropped from the 40-man later this year, as much as he's making a case for a callup. Vielma had a decent start repeating AA, but has looked overmatched as expected in first outings at AAA. Still early, of course, but he looks very much like someone you wouldn't want to call up this year unless you had a roster emergency. The two catchers are hitting well, though, and Granite is continuing his Ben Revere impression, which could be useful on the MLB bench under the right circumstances.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Duffey's 1.30 gmLI ranks 72nd among "qualified relievers" in MLB right now, per Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d&page=1_500 He also only has 4 "shutdowns" versus 5 "meltdowns" (those are games where he has added or subtracted at least 0.06 WPA). Those rank only 103rd best, and 9th worst, in MLB, per Fangraphs.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Saturday is a 1:10 PM start, so they will likely try to play it, even if they have to delay/interrupt it long enough that it basically becomes a night game. If they get another doubleheader, they might be best served by calling up a 26th man to start. (Yesterday they just called up Rucinski for the pen.) They will need to send someone down to make room for Mejia on Saturday regardless, though. Wilk is out of options and would need to clear waivers to be outrighted; same for Adrianza. Haley could go back to the DL, maybe? Vargas could get optioned. Then, unless they want to short-rest Ervin, they will need another starter for Monday night too, so they will need to clear an additional spot on the roster (although I suppose they could send Mejia back down, depending on his performance Saturday -- but they would need another 5th starter within 10 days -- Tuesday May 30).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    No, a returned Turner would not have to go on the 40-man.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano could possibly set a triples record, just by stopping at third on his home runs?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs has wRC+ for minor league hitters, which does some adjusting for league and park, and Gordon was doing pretty well (above average) up until this year, even with the lack of power.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually with the postponement tonight, right now we could need another starter Monday May 22 in addition to Saturday May 20. (Unless they want to throw Ervin or Berrios on 3 days rest.) Could change with another rainout in the meantime, of course!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Whenever I venture to a site that I don't want to give clicks, I use the Google cache version of the page.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Brock, to be fair, Gordon added a triple and a HR since my post. Although it is still a small sample. Before yesterday he had 2 HR, for a full season pace of 6 HR. Better than where he was before but not necessarily indicative of a real meaningful improvement in the power department. Triples are also pretty variable, as we've seen with Rosario, especially in the minors. Seeing that Gordon doubled his rate of hitting triples, with only a modest improvement in HR rate, was another reason I questioned his power improvement.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow, I missed that about Turley going back to AA. Yes, that is completely inexcusable.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    There is very little "PED stuff" that Ortiz needs avoid. He allegedly tested positive for something in the anonymous, non-binding tests of 2003. But so did 103 other players. It seems due to the purpose of those tests (anonymously gauging league-wide usage), there were not strict controls and procedures to guarantee the accuracy of individual tests, as confirmed by current commissioner Rob Manfred here: http://nesn.com/2016/10/david-ortizs-positive-ped-test-in-2003-wasnt-reliable-rob-manfred-says/ The fact is that Ortiz went on to play (and dominate) from 2005-2016 under stricter official drug testing with individual penalties and never had a positive test during that time. Unless you want to endorse some conspiracy theories, he's virtually as clean as any other player in the game.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Not true, Ortiz was not the "backup" to Jeremy Giambi. They were splitting playing time 50/50 from day 1 in Boston.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't you think Ortiz was good enough, long enough (during the testing era) to earn the benefit of the doubt that PEDs played a minimal role (at best) in his success?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed! I can buy an argument for a particular pitcher to stay at his current level, working on something specific with the coach there, etc. But the Twins aren't promoting anyone worthwhile for the pen, anywhere. The only mildly interesting bullpen guy to switch levels so far this season is Nik Turley, from AA to AAA, and he's almost 28 years old. Meanwhile, stuck in AA, we have Melotakis and Rosario, both on 40-man, in their second option years. Plus Burdi, Bard, Van Steensel, and Curtiss, all of whom would need 40-man protection after the season. Same for Hildenberger at AAA. All while Rucinski, Tepesch, and Wilk have been added to the 40-man and given MLB innings.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought that would be the plan with Breslow too, but his usage so far doesn't really support it. Pretty hard to "flip" a mop-up reliever. That said, Breslow doesn't have a strong "LOOGY" history -- he usually averaged an inning per appearance in his career. He even got the Red Sox to give him a couple starts at the end of 2015 season. Could be reinventing himself a bit late in his career? Not sure it would be a particularly valuable re-invention for player or team, but there you go...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fine for Burdi, if they are willing to do it. But there are other interesting arms in AA too, and none of them are getting promoted anywhere yet, even though there is obvious need in MLB and in AAA too (Wimmers' spot, for one).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Breslow has generally been effective this year -- but he's clearly become the mop-up man. His 0.52 game-entering leverage index is among the lowest in the league. We are 3-12 in Breslow's 15 games this year, which gives you an idea of when he is being used. Can Breslow get stretched out to be the long man, so we can drop Adam Wilk to add a 5th starter? Otherwise, as we've seen with Tonkin, having your mop-up man be a short reliever isn't a good use of resources.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    We're past the Chargois 2016 AAA promotion date -- he made his AAA debut on May 10th, 2016. I don't think we want to push this back any further -- if a young pitcher doesn't debut until July, that gives you very little time to evaluate their readiness and adjustments before you have to make important trade deadline decisions.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Players get a fourth option year if they've used all 3 of their options before they have 5 "full" pro seasons. "Full" generally means above short-season leagues (i.e. rookie ball) but there is a disabled list component too, and I think Rosario would be eligible based on his 2014 not being "full" (he spent fewer than 30 days active before spending the rest of the season on the DL). http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3521
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