Otto von Ballpark
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Not quite. 10-16 in his starts. Straker also made 5 relief appearances. In any case, the point of it was to say, Berenguer wasn't really being leveraged like a top setup man, so he doesn't get a huge bonus for that. So with fewer innings, and not a hugely better performance, it's perfectly logical to expect his WAR to be roughly equal to that of Straker for 1987. You obviously wouldn't trust Straker in the postseason or beyond, but that's projection looking forward. Looking backward, at that regular season, I think it's fair to peg his contributions as similar to those of Berenguer. And even WAR proponents don't assign it any extreme precision -- with a 0.2 WAR difference separating the two, it's quite possible that Berenguer was more valuable under any reasonable margin of error. But they're probably in a comparable bucket. -
Straker had 26 starts that year, with an above-average ERA+. A slightly better ERA than Reardon in almost twice the innings, in fact, and a comparable ERA in more innings than Berenguer too. Also Berenguer wasn't really a high leverage setup man -- he did a lot of long relief / mop-up work, especially early in the season. Through August, the Twins had a 12-16 record in games that Berenguer relieved in. The peripherals were ugly, but in 1987, Straker got the job done. 2.2 WAR sounds about right.
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Nova might be pretty expensive, perhaps prohibitively so until July. He's had a 150 ERA+ in 20 starts so far for Pittsburgh. Even if the Pirates eventually commit to selling, they might try to swing a blockbuster for Cole and keep a guy like Nova to reload for 2018.
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To be fair, it's hard to make moves earlier than late July. Even teams that are decidedly sellers tend to wait for the market to develop unless they get blown away by an offer early, especially for good players that should be in demand. And sometimes teams decide not to sell - I remember targeting the Padres' Benoit all summer in 2015, but ultimately the Padres didn't trade anyone (and actually added another veteran arm for their own pen.)
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Duffey might be able to do that (and more), for free. And we're 2 months away from trade season, so we've got time to find out. I'm having a hard time reconciling your position that Duffey has to stay in the pen, but the Twins should be aggressively trying to address the rotation in the short term. Why not Duffey to the rotation, Burdi to the pen, and you can re-evaluate when teams start listening to trade offers in July? That seems like a way better use of resources, for both the short and long term, than spending prospect capital right away trying to get whatever starter a team is willing to deal early.
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Re: Greinke, the Diamondbacks are doing quite well so far in 2017, leading the wild card race and only 2 games behind the Rockies in their division, with a fairly young team. Goldschmidt is controlled through 2019. Lamb, Ray, and Walker are controlled through 2020. The odds of them dealing Greinke this season are pretty low, even for a top prospect return (for which the Twins may not even have the pieces).
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I believe the rumor was Hicks and Ramos for Lee. Hicks was BA's #19 prospect in baseball entering that season, Ramos #58. The Mariners eventually accepted Smoak (#13) plus a few marginal prospects. Gibson was #61 and rising in 2010, so he could have been in play too. Of course, the best time to get Lee was the 2009-2010 offseason. The Phillies inexplicably dumped him that winter for a very light return.
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Richard is indeed nowhere near as good as Pomeranz circa July 2016. I'm really not sure why we'd want him, unless the Padres were giving him away (and I don't think there is any evidence suggesting that they are willing to do so). Clayton Richard's career ERA- as a starter is 110. He's got a 104 this season. (100 is average, lower is better.) He only threw 80 innings all of last season, and is already at 62 this year. His last full season as a starter was 2012. He's also 33 years old and a free agent after the season. Gonsalves might fetch Richard, but why?
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What exactly are we doing to build up our pen? What exactly can we do to build up our rotation?
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They're unlikely to find a quality starting arm outside the organization for the next 2 months, unless they are willing to pay an arm and a leg (no pun intended!). Duffey had a rough 2016 season, no doubt, but I'm not sure he is a completely failed starter. Was Berrios a failed starter after last year too? Was Hughes a failed starter after 2011 or 2013? Was Ervin Santana a failed starter after 2007, 2009, or 2012? Everyone knew Duffey would have adjustments to make after 2015, and he didn't really get a break to make them after he started struggling in 2016 -- we kept throwing him out there every 5th day on a pretty dysfunctional MLB squad. He only returned to the minors for 2 starts, at the end of August and early September, and then was right back into the fire. We seem to be giving credit to the new leadership, coaches, and catchers for helping get other guys on track in 2017 after a difficult 2016. I'm not sure why we're not extending the same benefit of the doubt to Duffey -- his current success may not be solely due to his bullpen assignment.
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If Duffey could even be a league-average starter, that's not "just a guy."
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In the context of holding Duffey back from starting, it really doesn't.
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It doesn't matter. I doubt any team is willing to trade a good starting pitcher right now for anything less than a king's ransom.
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Hasn't Hughes shown enough (or so little?) the past few years that, however long the DL stint, he should probably use the full 30 day rehab for evaluation? No reason to let him take the MLB mound again if nothing has changed and just hope for the best.
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Duffey was asked to protect the same 6 run lead as Breslow tonight. Although they waited until it was 8 runs to bring in Haley...
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It's basically been going on for 2 calendar years (dating to the 2015 season), with no improvement even after surgery and rest.
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Hague has a 106 wRC+ at Rochester. His isolated power ranks 10th on the team. And this is his 6th season in the International League. He turns 32 years old in August. Unless it was an emergency, I don't think he should be anywhere near the roster. In the unlikely event that Escobar was traded, Adrianza could be the 3B backup too. Gimenez is also nominally a backup at 1B and 3B as well.
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That was an optimistic mischaracterization. Duffey is only 4th on the team in average game-entering leverage index, behind not only Kintzler, but also Belisle and Rogers. 7 of his 14 appearances have come with the team trailing. I wouldn't exactly call it "low leverage" but they're not really leveraging Duffey to any great degree. If they can promote an effective reliever from the minors (Burdi?), and someone like Pressly earns some trust back, that would pretty much cover Duffey's contributions in the pen.
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But his rate stats are pretty much exactly the same for 2017 as 2016. (And not far off from 2015 either.) Which suggests this is possibly the new health/performance norm for Hughes.
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I don't believe Hughes should feel compelled to retire. But it's possible that he may want to, if the alternative is more surgeries and rehab programs. I recall that was the decision that Gil Meche faced, when he notably walked away. More commonly, of course, the pitcher tries to finish his deal, but Hughes may run out of things to try soon.
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And as far as "hotter hand", Escobar was 1-for-12 since his big HR/2B/4 RBI game 10 days earlier. His lone hit was a single, pinch hitting with 2 outs in the 9th down 4 runs vs the Rockies. Vargas had just homered off the Royals closer the previous game (a closer he had a decent chance of facing again in this game, even if the Twins didn't tie it up in the 7th). I should note, I'm not calling for Molitor to be fired or anything. I do think this move stretches the term "defensible" a bit.
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Interesting that Vargas had 3 PA with zero strikeouts in the game already (8 PA without a strikeout overall), and Escobar wound up striking out in both of his PA. Their 2017 K rates are pretty close thus far.
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It's a .118 BABIP. Is that real, or just a function of a tiny sample size?
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I agree that I don't think Molitor hates Vargas, but that doesn't make it a good move. And it wasn't just "one AB". It was only the 7th inning, and there was a fair chance that spot would come up again, and the Royals had already used all of their lefty relievers (other than Travis Wood -- and I would trust any batter against Travis Wood right now ). Not to mention other substitution opportunities that would be more difficult in the last 2 innings after using a utility hitter to pinch hit for your DH.
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Same thing was said about Pat Dean last year, and basically every other guy who survived his first mop-up appearance. No thanks on Wilk.
