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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    True, although that's a little harder to predict. You probably couldn't wait on making FA moves either.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That's what a lot of people said last July for Santana too, when nothing came to fruition, and he's a year older with some troubling peripherals this year. I feel like setting that price is again saying you won't trade him, and I'm wondering if we shouldn't be more open to the idea, and flexible about the return...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    They could trade Santana for those prospects, and then turn around and sign Garcia, Cahill, Cobb, Feldman, etc. for 2018.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    If you could get Adams + Sheffield, or Adams + Mateo, you wouldn't really need the third piece, would you? Although I agree that it's highly unlikely the Yankees would make such an offer for Santana, so it's a moot point.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    True, although that's pretty negligible. Any team that cares about that $1 mil isn't going to be giving up more valuable prospects either.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    By Fangraphs "coin flip mode" (not involving stats or projections), the Twins are estimated to finish with 80 wins, and have a 7.1% chance at the division, and 11.6% chance at the wild card, for a total 18.8% chance at the playoffs. http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=0&lg=div&date=current Season-to-date stats mode drops us to around 77.4 wins, and divison/wildcard/playoff odds of 2.5%, 7.7%, 10.2%, respectively. Fangraphs projection mode keeps their win total about the same as season-to-date stats mode, but drops their odds further, primarily because it boosts Cleveland and maybe a few other teams.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe "connected to" as in "formerly played for". Liriano would seem to be an ideal August waiver trade guy too, I could see the Twins keeping tabs on him in case they work their way back into the race.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Estevan Florial has been a name mentioned around Yankee rumors lately. 19 year old outfielder, hitting well (but with a high K rate) at A ball, 5th for the Yankees and 90th overall in the latest MLB Pipeline lists. Dustin Fowler is hurt for the season, but he was a pretty good outfielder too, and MLB ready. MLB Pipeline has him 4th for the Yankees and 78th overall. James Kaprielian is also out this year with TJ surgery, but is a pitcher and was their 1st round pick in 2015. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=nyy
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, 5 years is a major difference from 1 year. But aside from 2017 ERA, they are completely different pitchers, so it's pretty much irrelevant to trying to compare their respective values.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Only catch would be if they were fairly marginal returns, and they thought keeping them for the final 2 months might help retain them for 2018 if they so desire.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Right, that's basically what I meant. Kintzler's only somewhat meaningful "advantage" over Neshek is saves (or more accurately, closer experience), and that's pretty meaningless in the context of this trade market. He trails Neshek in virtually every other consideration (current season performance, career performance, peripherals, postseason experience). It's still possible for him to get a slightly better return, because the market isn't that precise and there are plenty of shifting external factors, but it won't be because Kintzler is 32 and Neshek is 36.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously they don't, since they didn't put him on their 40-man roster. But I will add, it didn't generate much mention in the local press here either -- a quick Google search says it was only noted by the Star Tribune in the Garcia trade story, because it was clearing a 40-man roster spot. And since it didn't involve any kind of 40-man spot for Boston, it's not surprising if it was not mentioned there at all.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    True. "Warning" was the wrong choice of word for me there. He's basically repeating his call in a sense, perhaps not unlike Sarah's example with the batter who lost track of the count. Obviously the ump shouldn't tell a player he is batting out of order, etc. But I think repeating a call for emphasis is probably okay.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    How do you get Phelps as "similar" to Rogers, even aside from handedness and age? Phelps has struck out 30.2% of all batters faced dating back to opening day 2016. That even includes a stretch of 5 starts last August where he struck out 32.7% of batters, with a 2.22 ERA and 2.94 FIP over 24.1 IP. By comparison, Rogers had a 24.2% K rate last year which has plummeted to 18.9% this year. Both figures largely propped up by higher rates vs LHB. Rogers has a ton more team control (5 years after this year, vs 1 for Phelps), but they are such different pitchers I don't think Phelps' price in trade has any bearing on that of Rogers right now. I get that Rogers has been a strong contributor to our 2017 pen, but he would get valued at something closer to a LOOGY on the open market right now.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Why would anyone care about age for a 2 month rental? No slight to Kintzler, but Neshek is unquestionably having the better season, a better career (including a previous all star selection), and postseason experience. Kintzler does have more saves but it appears most clubs are interested in adding setup men anyway, not closers.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Cite? I think a few million can sometimes be a condition on which a deal is dependent, but I really doubt it meaningfully swings prospect quality. In 2013 many here were saying the Twins should eat Morneau's salary to get a better return, but it was quite clear that the cheap Pirates were resisting paying it at all, not that they were haggling over prospect quality. I think you'd have to get into more extreme amounts, likely tens of millions, to seriously affect prospect negotiations. Remember it took ~$10 mil for Atlanta to "buy" Toussaint from Arizona a couple years back (although Arizona GM Dave Stewart has been fired since then, so maybe that is a touch low?).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Hurlbut is almost 3 years older (he turns 28 in November), this is the first time in years that he has eclipsed 6 K/9 (Sleger has never been below that figure), and his H/9 last year was 11.0 and this year 10.0 -- Slegers has never given up as many as 10 H/9. Others would be better experts in the scouting department, but Slegers has a few extra MPH on his fastball, I know. One thing Hurlbut has going for him is that he is eligible to declare minor league free agency after this season. If we want to retain him, maybe a MLB cup of coffee would help? Slegers will be Rule 5 eligible again if not added to the 40-man, but he's 2 years away from minor league free agency. Depending on the 40-man picture, I probably would lean no on both, though. Will teams really want Slegers in Rule 5? Remember that no one else wanted Haley.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he meant it would be, at best, a neutral outcome for the Twins. They could have released him if they wanted. And pending Palka's fate, we could have perhaps used his roster spot better. Again, not saying we lost the trade, but we probably didn't "win" it either.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    He means there are more games played than just those by the qualifiers.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Which anybody would have done. (Same for Sano back to 3B, I have a hard time giving this FO any credit for that like a poster upthread, it's basically the minimum expectation.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Chad Moeller for Hanley Frias was the other Twins - Arizona trade. I'd say that was neutral outcome for the Twins.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Garcia is scheduled to pitch tomorrow night. Even if we are listening to offers on him, I'd be pretty surprised if got something done that quickly. Tomorrow's game is in Oakland, though, so maybe you could say "never pitches for the Twins in Minneapolis."
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    We're pretty much all saying that, yeah. I forgot what side I'm on again. As far as stats, I was using offense because it was easier. But using WAA, he is still slightly above average, right?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    After those seasons, correct. That's 5 more seasons after this one for Kepler, and 4 more for each of the others listed.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    How so below? MLB 2B have a 97 wRC+, AL 2B have a collective 98, and Dozier is at 103. (Unadjusted OPS tells the same story too.)
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